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Friday, December 7, 2012

Winter Meetings 2012: An Inside Look

Part One: My Own Experience
  
The Winter Meetings are a once-a-year event that brings together virtually everyone in baseball.  Usually, my write ups on this event are about the flurry of signings or trades that occur.  However, this year was just a tad different as I attended the meetings as a job seeker.  Due to this being the case, I get to write all about how I ran all over the resort meeting people, doing interviews, eating quick meals at overpriced food stands, and worried my butt off as to whether or not I was meeting enough people and doing the right things.  
  
I guess the right place to start with this kind of thing is to set the scene.  This year, the Winter Meetings took place down in the Music City: Nashville, Tennessee.  A few miles from downtown stands the Gaylord Opryland Resortt, which is the "building" that the meetings occurred in.  Rather than refer to it as a building, it may be better to refer to it as a small city, because that's a lot closer to what the resort actually is.  From the job fair to the Cascades lobby to the delta island area, the Opryland truly is an impressive structure.  However, the general buzz among media and guests seemed to be a general sense of disappointment and hatred.  The feeling isn't totally undeserved, as the resort came really without a consensus central location and was incredibly widely spread out.  For reference, check out this map.  I would have situations where I would have meetings in the Magnolia area and then be called and asked if I could meet in the Cascades.  If I were to take a shot at how long it would take to do a complete circle around the resort on one level, I would probably say somewhere around 20 minutes for somebody who was really booking it.  For individual events (the job fair, the trade show, the media room, etc) the resort is great as it has plenty of great rooms and wings to host these events, but for something that requires meeting a lot of people at really spontaneous times, the resort left something to be desired.  
  
Now that you've got a bit of an idea of where the meetings were being held, I guess I should dive into my experience at the Winter Meetings.  I flew in on Saturday and met my dad at a car rental desk at the Nashville International Airport.  After getting the rental car, a Mitsubishi (talk about leaving something to be desired), we hit up I-40 and made our way to the Best Western Suites at Opryland.  Rather than go out and explore the city, we ordered in and watched championship Saturday for college football as I did a bit of research for the one interview I knew I had.  After a good night's sleep, we got up and drove over towards LP Field, home of the Tennessee Titans.  I grew up a Titans fan, and this was my first time in Nashville so I was able to see the Titans play at home for the first time (one of the first things I looked up after finding that the meetings were in Nashville was whether they played at home that Sunday).  Although they lost in an ugly fashion, I picked myself up a new Chris Johnson jersey and toured the field, which was incredibly symmetrical and somewhat disappointing.  After the game we went around to a local outlet mall and looked around for a belt (which I had forgotten to bring with me) and got to drive around just a little bit.  
  
After using Sunday night to study up again, I got about 20 minutes of sleep heading into my first interview at 9 am on Monday.  We took a shuttle out to the Opryland resort, and I panicked a bit as I searched for the Magnolia area (the lack of maps around the resort was somewhat frustrating) where my meeting was to occur.  Without disclosing too many details, I thought my first interview went pretty well.  However, after that interview I struggled a bit to find the right people to talk to.  The advice I had gotten was to talk to the right people, and the analogy given to me was that it was like going up to a girl in a bar.  Unfortunately, a more useful analogy is to say it's like going up to a girl in a bar and not being confident in the fact that she's actually a girl, because finding the "right people" to talk to was almost impossible.  After sending out a slew of e-mails and meeting up with the contacts I had who had also traveled to Nashville, I had a pretty average rest of the day.  I met a couple more people, but was rather disappointed in how the rest of my Monday had turned out.
  
Things changed on Monday night going into Tuesday.  To put it simply, I wound up getting several e-mails about meeting up on Tuesday or Wednesday, and I set up a couple of phone interviews that I will have next week.  I showed up at the Opryland on Tuesday feeling as if I could be more relaxed and confident, and I actually wound up getting a call for an interview in Nashville for a position I applied to about 9 weeks ago.  For all intents and purposes, Wednesday was pretty much the same.  I went in with confidence, got a random call for a meeting, and actually wound up with a couple interviews/meetings on my last day.  As far as my job search, that's really all it wound up being: contact a buttload of people via e-mail or phone, talk to as many people as possible, and hopefully your impression/resume is good enough to make people notice you.
  
Now we get to the fun part: the fact that I was running around a huge resort with 25,000 other baseball people.  My dad and I were able to introduce ourselves or talk to all kinds of different baseball people.  A list of individuals we saw/met/talked to included, but was not limited to:
  
Ken Rosenthal
John Heyman
Chris Amsinger
Harold Reynolds
Chris Rose
Kevin Millar
Buster Olney
John Kruk
Joe Maddon
Ron Washington
Jim Leyland
Kirk Gibson
Don Mattingly
Dale Sveum
Jonathan Mayo (prospects guy)
Craig Calcattera (hardballtalk writer)
Jack Morris
Ned Colletti
  
It's pretty cool when you get to randomly be waiting outside a bathroom and overhear Ron Washington talking to some guys he knows about Mike Napoli leaving and signing with the Red Sox.  It's even more cool when you stop Joe Maddon on a walkway and tell him how much you love how he uses defensive shifts as bluffs against certain hitters (of course he was wearing a flashy shirt and his typical thick, black-framed glasses).  I also had a buddy that got to have short conversations with the likes of Scott Boras and Jason McCleod, which I thought was pretty cool.  Anyway, talking about my experience and the baseball guys I met has me wanting to talk about baseball, so time for part two!
  
Part Two: The Baseball Stuff
  
When the two biggest moves of the meetings are Shane Victorino signing a 3 year/$37+ million dollar deal and Ben Revere being traded for Vance Worley and Trevor May, you know you've run into quite the lackluster meetings from a baseball standpoint.  Sure, a lot of things were discussed including a potential 4 team blockbuster involving Asdrubal Cabrera, Trevor Bauer, James Shields, and a group of prospects.  However, nothing really big came out of any major trade discussions.  We know the Rangers are pushing hard to trade for Upton and sign Zack Greinke, we know the Mariners are reportedly pursuing Josh Hamilton heavily, and we know that the Red Sox are apparently bent on signing "eh" players for lots of money in the short term while they rebuild.  With that, time to hand out some "awards" of sorts:
   
Biggest Winner: Minnesota Twins
  
I...I can't believe I'm saying it.  However, I quite honestly believe it to be true: the Twins have a basic goal and they are going all out to accomplish it.  They want to bring in young, effective, power arms to the organization by any means necessary.  Going into the meetings, they traded Denard Span for Alex Meyer.  While somewhat disappointing simply from the standpoint that I think they could and should have gotten more for Span, this move brings in a guy that either could evolve into a mid-rotation starter or a high-leverage reliever.  Later into the meetings, they flipped outfielder Ben Revere to Philadelphia for Vance Worley and Trevor May, adding two more quality arms to the organization.  They also extended reliever Jared Burton for two years at 5.5 million with an option for a third season.  In 2012, the reliever seemed to have given up on his cutter and went with a fastball/slider/change combo that proved much more effective.  The Twins were one of the few teams to come out and accomplish their goals.
  
Runner Up: San Francisco Giants
  
The Giants aren't the winners because what they accomplished was locking in the guys they had last year (overpayments in some cases and steals in others).  They locked up Jeremy Affeldt prior to the meetings, and they managed to lock in Angel Pagan (4/40) and Marco Scutaro (3/20) for a few years at premium positions.  Any time you can reasonably lock up players that might leave, you've had a pretty successful off season.  Suddenly I think they look like they could be major darkhorses for guys like Josh Hamilton and Nick Swisher.
  
Biggest Loser: Scott Boras
  
Sorry man, but this off season, teams seem to be doing all they can to avoid you.  The two biggest Boras clients on the market (Michael Bourn and Edwin Jackson) not only came out without deals, but their former jobs have been taken with the teams they played with last year (B.J. Upton to the Braves and Dan Haren with the Nationals).  On top of that, Bourn's list of potential suitors has completely disappeared.  Upton in Atlanta, Pagan in San Francisco, Span in Washington, Revere in Philly, Victorino in Boston, and possibly Fowler in Cincinnati.  Suddenly the only teams with money to spend and needs in center are Texas and Seattle.  However, it appears the Rangers are focusing efforts on Justin Upton and Zack Greinke, and the Mariners appear to be focusing in Josh Hamilton if Texas doesn't re-sign him.  Boras seems to have lost a lot of leverage with his biggest client on the market this year, and Edwin Jackson's name came up zero times during the meetings.
  
Runner Up: Twitter Followers and Fans
  
How boring and agonizing it was to follow these meetings on twitter.  The most exciting thing that occurred was the mention of a possible Diamondbacks blockbuster, but Kevin Towers and company only agreed to some small moves.  After the frenzy that was the 2011 meetings, the 2012 edition was rather lackluster from a moves standpoints.
  
Most perplexing move:
  
Rockies trade Alex White and Alex Gillingham for Wilton Lopez and a player to be named later.  This move just make zero sense from a Rockies standpoint.  Right now, it's like they are stuck in a bizarre land somewhere between rebuilding and trying to contend in the near future.  This move also doesn't seem to make much sense because of the Rockies' new piggy back approach to their rotation, where starters (like Alex White) with low stamina can throw faster and be more effective over shorter innings and then relievers who can handle more innings can help finish up.  Moving two young players for an effective reliever after coming off a terrible season just seems like a lackluster move.  The only way this could be great is if the Rockies flip him at the deadline (where he is worth more) for players better than White and Gillingham.  
  
To conclude, the Winter Meetings were great if you were there, but pretty darn boring if you weren't.  I'll keep everybody updated on the job search, and hopefully the rest of the off season is more exciting than the meetings were.

Saturday, December 1, 2012

How Often Do WAR Leaders Win the MVP?

Congratulations to Miguel Cabrera for winning the AmericanLeague MVP!  As a Tigers fan, I'm happy that one of my players won such a prodigious award, even though I personally would've voted for Mike Trout.   Much, much debate has been going on against "old school" and "new school" with "old school" winning this round.  The newfangled stat this time for the "new school" sabermetrics is WAR (which includes defense, base running and positional value along with hitting).  It got me thinking about who did win the award with the highest WAR?  Was there ever a time where the voters valued defense and base running along with hitting or was it always about the best hitter (ignoring times where pitchers won the award)?

There are 3 versions of WAR, Baseball-reference's rWAR, FanGraphs' fWAR and Baseball Prospectus' WARP.  I'm only going to focus on rWAR and fWAR because I'm more familiar with those.  A couple of things to keep in mind:

- WAR hasn't been around for too long, so it's impossible to know who had the highest WAR at the time for the older years.

- Some of the components of WAR has changed over time, like defense, which is calculated differently recently with DRS (in rWAR) or UZR (in fWAR) than in older years which uses Total Zone.

- WAR, like any other stat, shouldn't be the only thing you look at when valuing a player.

American League:

Year
MVP Winner
rWAR
rWAR
 Rank
fWAR
fWAR
Rank
rWAR Leader
fWAR Leader
2012
Miguel Cabrera
6.9
4th
7.1
3rd
Mike Trout
Mike Trout
2011
8.3
2nd
7.0
T-7th
2010
8.4
1st
8.4
1st
Josh Hamilton
Josh Hamilton
2009
7.6
3rd
7.9
4th
Zack Greinke
2008
6.8
2nd
6.7
4th
2007
9.2
1st
9.7
1st
Alex Rodriguez
Alex Rodriguez
2006
4.0
T-34th
4.0
T-34th
2005
Alex Rodriguez
9.1
1st
9.1
1st
Alex Rodriguez
Alex Rodriguez
2004
5.2
T-10
6.3
6th
Johan Santana
2003
Alex Rodriguez
8.1
1st
9.3
1st
Alex Rodriguez
Alex Rodriguez
2002
5.3
T-12
4.7
T-24th
Alex Rodriguez
Alex Rodriguez
2001
Ichiro Suzuki
7.5
4th
6.1
6th
Jason Giambi
2000
Jason Giambi
7.4
5th
7.8
5th
Pedro Martinez
1999
6.1
T-9th
6.9
5th
Pedro Martinez
Pedro Martinez
1998
4.6
26th
5.3
T-17th
Alex Rodriguez
1997
8.9
2nd
9.4
2nd
Roger Clemens
Roger Clemens
1996
Juan Gonzalez
3.5
44th
3.7
T-53rd
Ken Griffey, Jr.
Ken Griffey, Jr.
1995
4.1
T-22nd
5.2
T-13th
Randy Johnson
1994
6.2
4th
7.3
1st
Frank Thomas
1993
Frank Thomas
5.9
15th
6.7
7th
Ken Griffey, Jr.
1992
2.8
65th
3.0
T-68th
Roger Clemens
Roger Clemens
1991
11.3
1st
11.1
1st
Cal Ripken, Jr.
Cal Ripken, Jr.
1990
9.8
2nd
10.5
1st
Roger Clemens
Rickey Henderson
1989
5.4
T-9th
5.8
12th
Rickey Henderson
1988
7.1
7th
8.2
4th
Wade Boggs
Roger Clemens
1987
4.6
T-21st
5.6
T-10th
Roger Clemens
Roger Clemens
1986
Roger Clemens
8.6
2nd
8.0
2nd
Wade Boggs
1985
6.4
T-7th
6.6
7th
Rickey Henderson
Rickey Henderson
1984
4.6
21st
3.1
T-73rd
Cal Ripken, Jr.
Cal Ripken, Jr.
1983
Cal Ripken, Jr.
8.0
1st
8.8
1st
Cal Ripken, Jr.
Cal Ripken, Jr.
1982
Robin Yount
10.4
1st
10.5
1st
Robin Yount
Robin Yount
1981
4.1
T-12th
2.5
T-43rd
Rickey Henderson
Rickey Henderson
1980
9.3
1st
9.5
1st
George Brett
George Brett
1979
3.5
T-44th
4.0
40th
Fred Lynn
1978
7.4
3rd
8.1
2nd
Ron Guidry
1977
9.5
1st
8.7
T-1st
Rod Carew
Rod Carew
1976
5.0
T-17th
4.8
T-16th
1975
Fred Lynn
7.1
T-6th
7.3
T-2nd
1974
3.2
T-26th
3.9
T-37th
1973
7.4
T-4th
7.3
5th
Bert Blyleven
Bert Blyleven
1972
8.1
3rd
8.5
1st
Gaylord Perry
Dick Allen
1971
8.7
2nd
8.8
1st
Vida Blue
1970
4.8
19th
6.3
T-7th
Carl Yastrzemski
1969
Harman Killebrew
5.7
9th
8.2
T-6th
Rico Petrocelli
1968
6.8
4th
6.9
7th
Carl Yastrzemski
Carl Yastrzemski
1967
Carl Yastrzemski
9.3
1st
12.1
1st
Carl Yastrzemski
Carl Yastrzemski
1966
7.3
1st
9.1
1st
Frank Robinson
Frank Robinson
1965
7.1
2nd
7.9
2nd
Sam McDowell
1964
7.8
2nd
9.4
1st
Brooks Robinson
1963
5.0
8th
7.0
3rd
Bob Allison
1962
5.7
3rd
6.7
3rd
Hank Aquirre
Brooks Robinson
1961
6.7
T-5th
7.9
6th
Mickey Mantle
Mickey Mantle
1960
Roger Maris
7.3
1st
8.1
1st
Roger Maris
Roger Maris
1959
5.9
4th
6.8
T-3rd
Camilo Pascual
1958
4.6
T-9th
5.9
6th
Mickey Mantle
Mickey Mantle
1957
Mickey Mantle
11.1
1st
12.1
1st
Mickey Mantle
Mickey Mantle
1956
Mickey Mantle
11.0
1st
12.3
1st
Mickey Mantle
Mickey Mantle
1955
4.2
14th
5.5
4th
Mickey Mantle
Mickey Mantle
1954
Yogi Berra
5.0
T-8th
6.2
8th
1953
9.8
1st
9.4
1st
Al Rosen
Al Rosen
1952
9.2
1st
6.6
4th
Bobby Shantz
1951
Yogi Berra
4.5
T-11th
5.8
5th
Ted Williams
Ted Williams
1950
6.6
2nd
7.6
T-1st
Phil Rizzuto
Al Rosen
1949
Ted Williams
9.1
1st
10.6
1st
Ted Williams
Ted Williams
1948
10.2
1st
11.6
1st
Lou Boudreau
Lou Boudreau
1947
4.5
T-8th
5.2
5th
Ted Williams
Ted Williams
1946
Ted Williams
10.7
1st
12.4
1st
Ted Williams
Ted Williams
1945
11.3
1st
8.0
2nd
Hal Newhouser
1944
Hal Newhouser
7.4
4th
7.3
4th
Snuffy Stirnweiss
1943
6.0
5th
6.8
6th
Lou Boudreau
1942
7.8
2nd
9.3
2nd
Ted Williams
Ted Williams
1941
Joe DiMaggio
8.6
2nd
10.6
2nd
Ted Williams
Ted Williams
1940
6.7
4th
8.6
2nd
Bob Feller
1939
Joe DiMaggio
7.9
T-2nd
9.1
1st
Bob Feller
Joe DiMaggio
1938
7.5
1st
9.4
1st
Jimmie Foxx
Jimmie Foxx
1937
7.3
6th
9.5
2nd
Joe DiMaggio
1936
9.0
2nd
10.8
1st
Lefty Grove
Lou Gehrig
1935
Hank Greenberg
7.4
6th
8.4
3rd
Lou Gehrig
1934
3.7
T-25th
4.4
22nd
Lou Gehrig
Lou Gehrig
1933
Jimmie Foxx
9.0
1st
11.0
1st
Jimmie Foxx
Jimmie Foxx
1932
Jimmie Foxx
10.2
1st
12.1
1st
Jimmie Foxx
Jimmie Foxx
1931
Lefty Grove
9.5
2nd
7.8
4th
Babe Ruth

23 out of the 82 American League MVP winners had the highest rWAR (28%) and 29 had the highest fWAR (35.4%).  Together, 31 winners had either the highest rWAR or fWAR (37.8%).


National League:


Year
MVP Winner
rWAR
rWAR
Rank
fWAR
fWAR
Rank
rWAR Leader
fWAR Leader
2012
7.2
1st
8.0
1st
Buster Posey
Buster Posey
2011
7.7
4th
7.6
3rd
Roy Halladay
2010
6.7
6th
7.3
2nd
Roy Halladay
2009
Albert Pujols
9.4
1st
9.0
1st
Albert Pujols
Albert Pujols
2008
Albert Pujols
9.0
1st
9.1
1st
Albert Pujols
Albert Pujols
2007
6.0
8th
6.9
T-7th
Albert Pujols
2006
5.0
T-14th
6.2
T-7th
Albert Pujols
Albert Pujols
2005
Albert Pujols
8.2
T-1st
8.2
2nd
Albert Pujols
2004
10.4
1st
11.9
1st
Barry Bonds
Barry Bonds
2003
Barry Bonds
8.9
1st
10.5
1st
Barry Bonds
Barry Bonds
2002
Barry Bonds
11.6
1st
12.5
1st
Barry Bonds
Barry Bonds
2001
Barry Bonds
11.6
1st
12.9
1st
Barry Bonds
Barry Bonds
2000
6.9
5th
7.6
5th
Randy Johnson
1999
6.7
4th
7.7
T-3rd
Randy Johnson
Randy Johnson
1998
6.3
T-12th
7.4
T-7th
Kevin Brown
1997
9.6
1st
9.4
T-2nd
Larry Walker
1996
7.4
5th
7.6
T-5th
Barry Bonds
Barry Bonds
1995
5.7
6th
5.3
6th
Greg Maddux
1994
7.9
2nd
7.8
1st
Greg Maddux
Jeff Bagwell
1993
Barry Bonds
9.7
1st
10.6
1st
Barry Bonds
Barry Bonds
1992
Barry Bonds
8.9
T-1st
9.7
1st
Barry Bonds
Barry Bonds
Greg Maddux
1991
5.8
5th
6.4
4th
Barry Bonds
1990
Barry Bonds
9.5
1st
10.1
1st
Barry Bonds
Barry Bonds
1989
6.8
T-5th
7.1
5th
Lonnie Smith
1988
6.2
6th
6.3
3rd
Barry Larkin
1987
3.7
T-26th
3.7
T-30th
Tony Gwynn
1986
5.8
4th
5.9
T-5th
Mike Scott
1985
7.9
2nd
7.2
T-3rd
Dwight Gooden
1984
8.4
1st
8.1
2nd
Ryne Sandberg
Dwight Gooden
1983
6.8
T-3rd
7.3
3rd
1982
Dale Murphy
5.8
11th
6.1
10th
Steve Carlton
1981
Mike Schmidt
7.5
1st
8.0
1st
Mike Schmidt
Mike Schmidt
1980
Mike Schmidt
8.6
2nd
9.1
T-1st
Steve Carlton
Mike Schmidt
Steve Carlton
1979
7.4
3rd
7.5
4th
2.3
T-67th
2.8
T-56
1978
6.9
2nd
7.1
2nd
Phil Niekro
1977
8.2
4th
9.3
2nd
Rick Reuchel
Mike Schmidt
1976
9.5
1st
10.1
1st
Joe Morgan
Joe Morgan
1975
Joe Morgan
10.8
1st
11.4
1st
Joe Morgan
Joe Morgan
1974
4.3
27th
4.4
34th
Mike Schmidt
Mike Schmidt
1973
8.2
4th
7.9
5th
1972
8.5
3rd
10.2
2nd
Steve Carlton
Steve Carlton
1971
5.6
10th
7.7
T-4th
Fergie Jenkins
1970
Johnny Bench
7.1
T-2nd
8.7
5th
Bob Gibson
1969
7.9
5th
8.4
4th
Bob Gibson
Bob Gibson
1968
Bob Gibson
11.7
1st
9.6
1st
Bob Gibson
Bob Gibson
1967
6.6
5th
7.6
4th
Ron Santo
1966
8.1
6th
8.0
5th
Sandy Koufax
1965
10.9
1st
11.5
1st
Willie Mays
Willie Mays
1964
5.8
T-13th
6.4
T-15th
Willie Mays
Willie Mays
1963
Sandy Koufax
10.3
1st
9.7
2nd
Sandy Koufax
Willie Mays
1962
5.8
7th
6.0
T-10th
Willie Mays
Willie Mays
1961
Frank Robinson
7.3
4th
7.6
T-4th
Hank Aaron
1960
6.0
8th
6.2
10th
Willie Mays
Willie Mays
1959
9.9
1st
10.4
1st
Ernie Banks
Ernie Banks
1958
Ernie Banks
9.2
2nd
9.7
2nd
Willie Mays
Willie Mays
1957
Hank Aaron
7.7
2nd
8.5
2nd
Willie Mays
Willie Mays
1956
4.2
20th
4.8
T-15th
Duke Snider
1955
5.0
T-12th
6.4
9th
Willie Mays
Willie Mays
1954
Willie Mays
10.3
1st
11.4
1st
Willie Mays
Willie Mays
1953
Roy Campanella
6.8
6th
8.5
T-4th
Duke Snider
1952
5.4
9th
6.1
6th
Jackie Robinson
1951
Roy Campanella
6.3
T-8th
7.5
4th
Jackie Robinson
Jackie Robinson
1950
4.6
T-16th
0.9
T-87
Eddie Stanky
1949
Jackie Robinson
9.3
1st
10.0
1st
Jackie Robinson
Jackie Robinson
1948
Stan Musial
10.8
1st
11.5
1st
Stan Musial
Stan Musial
1947
6.4
5th
7.4
4th
1946
Stan Musial
8.4
1st
9.6
1st
Stan Musial
Stan Musial
1945
5.9
5th
6.9
4th
Tommy Holmes
1944
4.6
18th
5.0
14th
Stan Musial
Stan Musial
1943
Stan Musial
9.3
1st
10.5
1st
Stan Musial
Stan Musial
1942
8.1
1st
6.6
T-2nd
Mort Cooper
1941
6.7
T-2nd
7.1
3rd
1940
5.7
6th
5.6
5th
Johnny Mize
1939
9.5
1st
4.0
T-19th
Bucky Walters
Johnny Mize
1938
5.3
6th
5.1
6th
Mel Ott
1937
8.1
1st
8.1
1st
Joe Medwick
Joe Medwick
1936
9.6
1st
5.2
11th
Carl Hubbell
Mel Ott
1935
4.8
13th
5.1
10th
Arky Vaughan
1934
8.9
1st
6.3
5th
Dizzy Dean
Mel Ott
1933
Carl Hubbell
8.6
1st
5.9
5th
Carl Hubbell
1932
Chuck Klein
6.5
5th
7.3
3rd
Mel Ott
Mel Ott
1931
3.5
T-22
4.4
13th

31 out of the 83 National League winners had the highest rWAR (37.3%) and 24 had the highest fWAR (28.9%).  Combined, 33 winners had either the highest rWAR or fWAR (39.8%).

Overall, out of the 165 total MVP winners, 54 had the highest rWAR (32.7%) and 53 had the highest fWAR (32.1%).  Combined, 64 MVP winners had either the highest rWAR or fWAR (38.8%).

This of course doesn't mean that voters used WAR (or for those years where WAR didn't exist, the "overall" contributions of a player) as their primary reason.  There were two main reasons why Miguel Cabrera won over Mike Trout, 1. He won the Triple Crown and 2. The Tigers made the playoffs.  Had Mike Trout won one of the Triple Crown stats and/or made the playoffs, it probably would've been very close in the voting.

This next table shows the MVP winners who led the league in WAR (either rWAR or fWAR) and how they did in the Triple Crown stats and whether they made the playoffs.


Year
MVP Winner
AVG
HR
RBI
Playoffs?
2012
1st
T-22nd
6th
Yes
2010
1st
T-5th
12th
Yes
2009
3rd
1st
3rd
Yes
2008
Albert Pujols
2nd
T-4th
4th
No
2007
13th
1st
1st
Yes
2005
Alex Rodriguez
2nd
1st
4th
Yes
2005
Albert Pujols
2nd
3rd
T-2nd
Yes
2004
1st
4th
3rd
Yes
2003
Alex Rodriguez
20th
1st
2nd
No
2003
Barry Bonds
3rd
T-2nd
24th
Yes
2002
Barry Bonds
1st
2nd
T-6th
Yes
2001
Barry Bonds
7th
1st
4th
No
1997
2nd
1st
3rd
No
1994
3rd
2nd
T-3rd
N/A
1994
2nd
2nd
1st
N/A
1993
Barry Bonds
4th
1st
1st
No
1992
Barry Bonds
7th
2nd
4th
Yes
1991
6th
3rd
4th
No
1990
2nd
T-6th
T-45th
Yes
1990
Barry Bonds
14th
T-4th
4th
Yes
1984
4th
T-14th
15th
Yes
1983
Cal Ripken, Jr.
5th
T-9th
9th
Yes
1982
2nd
11th
4th
Yes
1981
4th
1st
1st
Yes
1980
1st
T-9th
T-2nd
Yes
1980
Mike Schmidt
20th
1st
1st
Yes
1977
1st
T-52nd
T-13th
No
1976
5th
5th
2nd
Yes
1975
Joe Morgan
4th
T-24th
11th
Yes
1972
3rd
1st
1st
No
1971
-
-
-
Yes
1968
-
-
-
Yes
1967
1st
T-1st
1st
Yes
1966
1st
1st
1st
Yes
1965
3rd
1st
3rd
No
1964
2nd
T-10th
1st
No
1963
-
-
-
Yes
1960
13th
2nd
1st
Yes
1959
10th
2nd
1st
No
1957
2nd
3rd
6th
Yes
1956
Mickey Mantle
1st
1st
1st
Yes
1954
Willie Mays
1st
T-3rd
6th
Yes
1953
2nd
1st
1st
No
1952
-
-
-
No
1950
6th
T-47th
T-31
Yes
1949
2nd
1st
T-1st
No
1949
1st
T-18th
2nd
Yes
1948
2nd
10th
8th
Yes
1948
1st
3rd
1st
No
1946
Ted Williams
2nd
2nd
2nd
Yes
1946
Stan Musial
1st
T-5th
3rd
Yes
1945
-
-
-
Yes
1943
Stan Musial
1st
T-6th
T-6th
Yes
1942
-
-
-
Yes
1939
1st
4th
2nd
Yes
1939
-
-
-
Yes
1938
1st
2nd
1st
No
1937
1st
T-1st
1st
No
1936
4th
1st
2nd
Yes
1936
-
-
-
Yes
1934
-
-
-
Yes
1933
Jimmie Foxx
1st
1st
1st
No
1933
Carl Hubbell
-
-
-
Yes
1932
Jimmie Foxx
1st
1st
1st
No

43 of the 64 MVP WAR leaders went to the playoffs (67.2%) and 37 won at least one of the Triple Crown categories (57.8%) but only 2 failed to win one of the Triple Crown categories and failed to go to the playoffs - Albert Pujols in 2008 and Cal Ripkin, Jr. in 1991.  Only 2 out of 165 (1.2%) MVP winners had the same conditions of Mike Trout in 2012: highest WAR while not making the playoffs or winning one of the Triple Crown categories. 

10 names in this table are pitchers.  Some might thing it's unfair to compare pitchers to hitters, especially considering that some voters don't think pitchers should be eligible for MVP Award (they have their own award, the Cy Young) and some years pitchers weren't strong candidates to win the award.  So, I'm coming up with the "close enough" rule.  This rule is going to only focus on batters.  Also, it's impossible to win a fraction of a game; if someone is within 1 win of someone else, then it's reasonable to assume that their values are very similar to each other and the difference is insignificant (this also minimizes the margin of error of the WAR stat).

MVP batters who are within 1 WAR (either rWAR or fWAR) of the league leaders:


Year MVP Winner AVG HR RBI Playoffs?
2011
Ryan Braun 2nd T-6th 4th Yes
2010
Joey Votto 2nd 3rd 3rd Yes
2009
Joe Mauer 1st T-17th 16th Yes
2008
Dustin Pedroia 2nd T-43rd 27th Yes
2004
Vladimir Guerrero 3rd 4th 4th Yes
1999
Ivan Rodriguez 7th T-11th 14th Yes
1999
Chipper Jones 10th T-3rd T-17th Yes
1997
Ken Griffey, Jr. 15th 1st 1st Yes
1988
Kirk Gibson 11th T-7th 16th Yes
1986
Mike Schmidt 10th 1st 1st No
1985
Willie McGee 1st T-47th 16th Yes
1983
Dale Murphy 6th 2nd 1st No
1979
Keith Hernandez 1st T-44th 5th No
1978
Jim Rice 3rd 1st 1st No
1978
Dave Parker 1st 3rd 2nd No
1977
George Foster 3rd 1st 1st No
1975
Fred Lynn 2nd T-13th 3rd Yes
1973
Reggie Jackson 10th 1st 1st Yes
1973
Pete Rose 1st T-83rd T-38th Yes
1972
Johnny Bench 29th 1st 1st Yes
1970
Johnny Bench 23rd 1st 1st Yes
1969
Willie McCovey 5th 1st 1st No
1966
Roberto Clemente 5th T-10th 2nd No
1965
Zoilo Versalles 15th T-18th 14th Yes
1962
Mickey Mantle 2nd 7th T-15th Yes
1959
Nellie Fox 4th T-91st 22nd Yes
1958
Ernie Banks 6th 1st 1st No
1957
Hank Aaron 4th 1st 1st Yes
1941
Dolph Camilli 18th 1st 1st Yes
1940
Hank Greenberg 5th 1st 1st Yes
1937
Charlie Gehringer 1st T-17th 16th No
1935
Hank Greenberg 7th T-1st 1st Yes

32 batters fit this criteria and an overwhelming 22 went to the playoffs (68.8%).  Of the 10 who didn't make it to the playoffs, 9 of them won at least one of the Triple Crown stats.  The only one who didn't was Roberto Clemente in 1966.  

Conclusion: Adding the last 2 tables together, and it can be stated that 96 of the 165 MVP Winners were either the best or close to the best in the given year, according to the WAR statistic.   However, all but 3 of them (1.82%) either made it to the playoffs or won a Triple Crown category, which was probably the major factor over WAR.  If anything, the voters are consistent, if not stuck in their "old school" way of thinking.