2013 Season Previews, Parts 16 and 17: Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago White Sox

Here we go, the ultimate test of my ability to be fair and objective in my predictions!

  

Milwaukee Brewers

2012 Record: 83-79

Pythag Record: 85-77

Games Out of First: 14.0

  

Top Performers by WAR:

  

1. Ryan Braun, 6.8

2. Aramis Ramirez, 5.4

3. Zack Greinke, 3.8

4. Jonathan Lucroy, 3.4

5. Norichika Aoki, 3.3

  

2012 Recap

  

There were two things the Brewers could have done last year to make the playoffs: 1) They should have dumped Randy Wolf earlier in the season and gone with a platoon of the young starters they have 2) They could have held on to Zack Greinke.  For reasons beyond the 2012 roster (like the complete lack of a farm system and lack of funds to pay the man the contract the Dodgers just gave him) , they really had no choice but to trade Greinke so it's hard to blame them for that one.  However, the Wolf fiasco really hurts.  Wolf pitching at such a bad ERA for so many innings led to a -1.2 by RA/9 WAR (which is really bad).  A lot of people were shocked that the team fought its way back into the playoff race, but when you throw 4 regular starters who contribute almost the exact same 3.7 ERA and are 6th in team wRC+ you're going to win games.  However, there was one glaring weakness the 2012 Brewers had: the complete and utter inability to close out ballgames.  The team bullpen era was 4.66 and they walked more than 4 batters per 9 innings as a pen.  Unfortunately for the Brewers, the bullpen really didn't pitch *this* poorly.  They should have been a pretty acceptable bullpen, but because of the volatility of end results over small sample sizes the results wound up being terrible.

  

Off Season Recap

  

It was a pretty quiet off season in Milwaukee, but that's because they really set things up to go that way.  Offensively they have no glaring needs or weaknesses and they've been able to build up a collection of mediocre pitchers to serve as a solid starting rotation.  What the Brewers did try to address is the bullpen.  Now, as you may have noticed I haven't talked about bullpens much to this point.  The reason behind that is that every team is constantly reworking its bullpen, (even a team like the Rays is constantly switching guys in and out) and the results are so volatile that I don't even bother predicting them.  Anyway, for what it's worth, here's a summary:

  

Additions:

  

RP Mike Gonzalez

RP Burke Badenhop

RP Tom Gorzellany

  

Subtractions (dating back to mid-season):

  

SP Zack Greinke

SP Shaun Marcum

RP Francisco Rodriguez

UTIL Mat Gamel (counting him as a "subtraction" because he's out for the year with a torn ACL)

  

2013 Outlook

  

In 2012, Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum combined for 247 IP and an ERA of 3.57.  That is going to be really, really hard to replace.  Marco Estrada, Michael Fiers, and Wily Peralta are going to have to step up and make up for that production.  This means that Estrada and Fiers can't really afford to regress and Peralta needs to step up in a big way.  Offensively, the team should be just fine even though Corey Hart is going to miss part of the beginning of the season.  His absence means that Hunter Morris should finally get a look in the Major Leagues.  The team as a whole is doing what most small market teams do: relying on young players within the organization to step up and produce in the absence of the players that have left.  Here are the keys to their season:

  

1. Aramis Ramirez- A-Ram needs to continue to hold off father time.  His production was absolutely vital to this team last year.  Whether you believe in protection in the lineup or not, his slugging percentage helped drive in Ryan Braun a lot last year.  With Hart being out and the production of Lucroy and Gomez being up in the air, Aramis needs to continue to be a solid presence in the four spot in the lineup.

  

2. Marco Estrada- If his peripherals from last year hold up and he continues the very high K/BB rate (supported by a K/9 over 9) then he can be a solid #2 in this rotation.  Most players don't break out at 28, but Estrada did.  If he can provide 200 innings of really solid work, the Brewers will be right there at the end.

  

3. John Axford- It's possible for closers to be really effective with a complete lack of control.  I've seen Carlos Marmol do it his whole career.  However, that kind of being "effectively wild" is not what John Axford was last year.  Unlike Marmol, who usually is really good at avoiding being totally killed by his walks through limiting home runs allowed, Axford got torched by the long ball last year.  A BB/9 rate above 5 paired with a HR/9 rate of 1.3 is not going to lead to good things.  He needs to lock down games and help the team avoid losing games it shouldn't.  Bullpens are the ultimate savior/destroyer of Pythag records, and Axford's performance is one of several that led the team to under-performing.

  

Potential Breakout Player

  

Marco Estrada, SP

  

His stuff really isn't that great, but this guy is really helped by the Brewer coaching staff.  The games called when he is on the mound are fantastic, and his results show it.  He's able to hide the ball well and that leads to deception.  140 IP isn't the greatest sample, but the peripherals he put up last year were fantastic. Ultimately he may start to get burned by home runs if he doesn't start getting more ground balls, but if he keeps up his rates from last year, he can be looked at as a quality #2.

  

Potential Bust Player

  

Carlos Gomez, CF

  

Strikes out too much, doesn't ever walk, and his power numbers last year were pretty much the direct result of dumb luck.  Until he learns to hit the ball on the ground more and use his speed, he's just not going to be a great player.  I think we are going to get back to the days of .270 OBP and .400 SLG from GoGo.

  

Projected Starting Eight and Starting Rotation

  

C- Jonathan Lucroy

1B- Corey Hart

2B- Rickie Weeks (something I didn't get to is how important him bouncing back is)

SS- Jean Segura

3B- Aramis Ramirez

LF- Ryan Braun

CF- Carlos Gomez

RF- Norichika Aoki

  

SP- Yovani Gallardo

SP- Marco Estrada

SP- Michael Fiers

SP- Chris Narveson

SP- Wily Peralta

  

Expectations:

  

Record: 84-78

Team MVP: Ryan Braun: 7.4 WAR

  

Lasting Thought

  

The Brewers are at a spot where they are a few players away from getting back into the postseason.  They really need to get back to developing young talent like they used to.  Right now, their farm system is very weak and they need to infuse some more young talent into the team.  The MLB roster is good right now, but probably needs a couple strong overperformances in order to really give Cincy a run for their money at the top of the division.

  

Chicago White Sox

2012 Record: 85-77

Pythag Record: 88-74

Games Out of First: 3.0

  

Top Performers by WAR

  

1. Chris Sale, 4.9

2. Jake Peavy, 4.4

3. Alex Rios, 4.2

4. A.J. Pierzynski, 2.6

5. Alexei Ramirez, 2.2

  

2012 Recap

  

Of every team in the league last year, the White Sox may have been the most underrated.  They were top 10 in wRC+, 17th in UZR, and 13th in team xFIP.  The team even had a strong bullpen that finished 16th in ERA (good considering the Cell does not exactly love pitching).  The only place they really failed as a team was on the bases, where they were bottom 10 in team BsR despite being 13th in total stolen bases.  Ultimately what may have hurt them as a team was having exactly zero offensive depth and having two black holes on offense up the middle of the diamond (Gordon Beckham and Alexei Ramirez were terrible at the plate).  Their offense was pretty well balanced last year despite not having a lot of top-tier talent.  Looking deeper into the season, it appears that Paul Konerko's wrist injury really demoralized the team offensively.  Konerko had a 1st half wRC+ of 151 and a 2nd half wRC+ of 108.  The same can be said for Adam Dunn, who had a first half wRC+ of 130 and a 2nd half wRC+ of 94.  The removal of this production from the lineup is what led to the White Sox tapering off and the Tigers taking the division.

  

Off Season Recap

  

Few teams changed as little from last season to this season as the White Sox.  The team added Jeff Keppinger to take over third base.  Outside of this, the only major change was the team letting A.J. Pierzynski walk in free agency.  Otherwise, the team is going to return the same starters on offense and in the rotation.   Here's a summary of their off season:

  

Additions: 

  

3B Jeff Keppinger

  

Subtractions:

  

C A.J. Pierzynski

3B Kevin Youkilis

  

2013 Outlook

  

I think being stagnant this off season was a mistake for the White Sox.  Adding Keppinger is a plus, but letting A.J. go is going to prove to be a huge loss, in my opinion.  Tyler Flowers has really struggled offensively in his appearances in the majors, and if he doesn't step up then the offensive depth will be seriously lacking.  2012 was a tale of two halves for several White Sox players, and things need to change for 2013.  Here are the keys for the White Sox:

  

1) Paul Konerko- If he's healthy, he's got one of the best bats in baseball.  Simply putL he needs to stay healthy, or this offense is amazingly pedestrian.

  

2) Adam Dunn- See above.  It was fantastic to see him recover from the nightmare that was 2011, but he needs to keep up his success over a full season.  Ultimately age is a huge deal with these two, so the White Sox need to extract as much value as possible out of them in 2013.

  

3) Addison Reed- Dude, you can't have a 5+ ERA as a closer in the 2nd half of the season for a team trying to make the post season!  Really, Reed's splits were terrible in the 2nd half.  He started to sacrifice strikeouts for control and gave up almost 2.0 HR/9 in the 2nd half last season.  Keep the ball in the ballpark and finish games so your team can win.

  

Potential Breakout Player

  

Tyler Flowers, C

  

Nothing will help anyone on this team more than Flowers finally getting a chance to play as the primary catcher.  Defensively he is strong behind the plate and has been above average at shutting down running games.  Offensively I feel as if he just needs to see more MLB pitches.  I don't think he's going to be as strikeout-prone as he has been in the past.

  

Potential Bust Player

  

Alex Rios, OF

  

This one seems pretty obvious.  Rios' career is a complete roller coaster and last year was one of the peaks. His walk rate keeps going down and his power miraculously went up last season thanks to a career high HR/FB ratio.  There really isn't another great bust candidate (outside of Chris Sale, who is hard to label as a bust) on this team, so it's Rios by default.

  

Starting Nine and Starting Rotation

  

C- Tyler Flowers

1B- Paul Konerko

2B- Gordon Beckham

SS- Alexei Ramirez

3B- Jeff Keppinger

LF- Dayan Viciedo

CF- Alejandro De Aza

RF- Alex Rios

  

SP- Chris Sale

SP- Jake Peavy

SP- John Danks (don't sleep on this dude, he should bounce back)

SP- Gavin Floyd

SP- Jose Quintana

  

Expectations

  

Record: 80-82

Team MVP: Chris Sale, 5.6 WAR

  

Lasting Thought

  

Staying put in this off season was a bad move.  The team had so many guys struggle in the 2nd half last season and didn't really address any needs other than third base.  This is a veteran laden squad with a good manger, so don't be surprised if they prove me wrong.  Much like the Brewers, the White Sox have issues down on the farm and seriously need to infuse talent into the minors.  If Kenny Williams lets Rick Hahn have a little bit more control over the team, I think this won't be a major problem long-term.

2013 Season Previews, Parts 14 and 15: Arizona Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies

Arizona Diamondbacks
2012 Record: 81-81
Pythag Record: B-Ref is down, I'll edit this in later instead of taking the 10 seconds to calculate it
Games Out of First: 7.0
 
Top Performers by WAR (again, b-ref is down, so this will be all fWAR):
 
1. Aaron Hill, 6.2
2. Miguel Montero, 5.0
3. Wade Miley, 4.8
4. Paul Goldschmidt, 3.7
5. Trevor Cahill, 3.4
 
I don't remember where I read it, but I'm certain I read somewhere that the Diamondbacks were one of the most disappointing teams of all time in terms of wins compared to expected wins.
 
2012 Recap
 
This team was 8th in position player fWAR and tied for 5th in pitcher fWAR and still only won 81 games in a pretty modest division.  Heck, the team was even 5th in team UZR!  So what were the Diamondbacks not good at?  From what I can see in terms of fangraphs ratios, just running the bases.  They were bottom 10 in BsR and 23rd in the league in stolen bases.  Other than that, it's really hard to find out where this team went wrong.  They were 11th in ISO (may be somewhat low for a Chase Field team), had a really high team BABIP, and were middle of the road in terms of wRC+.  This is where it's nice to note that a lot of these metrics are estimates based on correlations and years upon years of data.  They are an estimation of what "should" have happened for the club.  Now, individually there may be an explanation as to why estimated results didn't translate into wins: lineup use.  Justin Upton's .150 ISO was hitting in the 3rd spot in the order all season.  His skills didn't play well for a 3-hitter last year (my apologies if he hit 4th for a while, b-ref is down), and it's a key mistake for a manager to not perform more adjustments when his hitters aren't hitting well for extended periods of time.  The estimations assume that the right players are being put in the right spots, and I think that may have been one of the key pieces of undoing for the D-Backs.  Aaron Hill even put up a .220 ISO, but I don't think he was hitting 4th or 5th for any extended period of time.
 
Off Season Recap
 
So after reading through this, the conclusion to how the D-Backs roster should be approached is just better optimization, correct?  Not if your name is Kevin Towers.  If your name is Kevin Towers you see a roster that doesn't have enough hustle and grit and you nuke it like Hiroshima.  Justin Upton?  Gone.  Chris Young?  Gone.  Trevor Bauer?  Gone.  Joe Saunders?  Gone.  Jason Kubel?  Well, he tried moving him. He took a good roster and pulled a Dahmer on it.   However, it's not that he butchered the roster...he didn't get fair value back in return!  He flipped Chris Young to Oakland for scrap pieces, he basically flipped Trevor Bauer for DiDi Gregorious, and then he turned Justin Upton into Martin Prado and Randall Delgado.  Anyway, Towers did do a few things correctly.  He extended Prado and Hill on the cheap side and brought in Cody Ross for the outfield.  Here's a summary:
 
Additions:
 
OF Cody Ross
SS Cliff Pennington
SS DiDi Gregorious
3B Martin Prado
RP Heath Bell (..........)
SP Brandon McCarthy
RP Tony Sipp
CF Tony Campana
 
Subtractions (dating back to mid-season):
 
RF Justin Upton
CF Chris Young
SP Trevor Bauer
SP Joe Saunders
 
2013 Outlook
 
Magic 8 ball says "outlook is bleak" (which is weird, because they usually don't say that).  I really think the Diamondbacks had a good thing going and totally ruined it.  Do I know all about the players they moved around?  No, I don't have the opportunity to talk to them and get to know them.  However, I have a hard time thinking moving Justin Upton's talent is worth any gain in leadership.  Looking at the lineup, I see the potential for quite a few runs.  Their 2-7 spots in the lineup all have competent bats (the jury is still out on Adam Eaton and Cliff Pennington kinda stinks at offense).  As far as their rotation goes, I'm sure they can mostly repeat and be average even without a front-line pitcher at the top.  The main problems the D-Backs are going to have are: 1) They got worse on defense 2) They don't really have any front-line talent 3) They don't have a ton of depth 4) The division went and got itself a LOT better (particularly Los Angeles).
 
Potential Breakout Player
 
Tyler Skaggs, SP
 
At some point, prospects must either step up and produce or risk falling into a AAAA mold.  With Skaggs, it looks like he is going to have a real shot at stepping into the rotation this year.  In his short time up last year, Skaggs had some serious issues with home runs, but I think he will eventually put that behind him.  He controls his pitches well and should have great success if he keeps them down in the zone.  He's definitely a possible ROY candidate in the NL.
 
Potential Bust Player
 
Aaron Hill, 2B
 
Hill was 28th in the league in ISO last year at .220.  I do not believe in his ability to repeat said performance.   He didn't change much from 2011 to 2012 in his BIP splits but saw his ISO double.  Hill also isn't a spring chicken, so to see him randomly pull a 6.2 fWAR out of his butt this late in his career was rather shocking.  He's been far too mediocre the rest of his career for me to believe he can repeat last year.  Going with track record over recent performance here.
 
Starting Eight and Starting Rotation
 
C- Miguel Montero
1B- Paul Goldschmidt
2B- Aaron Hill
SS- Cliff Pennington
3B- Martin Prado
LF- Jason Kubel
CF- Adam Eaton
RF- Cody Ross
 
SP- Ian Kennedy
SP- Wade Miley
SP- Trevor Cahill
SP- Brandon McCarthy
SP- Tyler Skaggs/Randall Delgado
 
Expectations:
 
Record: 74-88
Team MVP: Miguel Montero, 5.5 WAR
 
Lasting Thought
 
The Diamondbacks still have the young pieces to compete in the near future.  They just need to orchestrate things properly and carefully.  I don't mind teams valuing hard work ethic and "grit" but it does bother me when players are traded simply on the merits of not being the kind of leader you want them to be.  This team still has .500 potential, but I don't expect them to have the depth and front-line talent to get them there.
 

Philadelphia Phillies
2012 Record: 81-81
Pythag Record: Unavailable
Games Out of First: 17.0
 
Top Performers by WAR
 
1. Carlos Ruiz, 5.5
2. Jimmy Rollins, 4.9
3. Cole Hamels, 4.9
4. Cliff Lee, 4.5
5. Chase Utley, 3.2
 
2012 Recap
 
Father time is one evil son of a bitch.
 
Quite frankly, age finally caught up with the Phillies in 2012.  They had loads of trouble staying healthy (Halladay, Ruiz, Howard, Utley, etc) and it really impacted their performance.  Even with the key breakout of Carlos Ruiz, the team really struggled to compete with the juggernauts in Atlanta and Washington.  The team was bottom 10 in wRC+ and dipped down to 18th in team UZR.  Where the team didn't fall short though was in team xFIP.  Despite Roy Halladay's injury-driven decline, the club finished 2nd in team xFIP at 3.61.  Without the pitching, the 2012 Phillies would have been fighting for the cellar in the NL East.  Overall, the season recap comes down to the team finally getting old.
 
Off Season Recap
 
After trading Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence in the middle of the season, the club had plenty of room to make moves but not a lot of money to do it with.  In case you haven't heard, Ryan Howard's extension pay increase still hasn't kicked in yet, which really has left the team in a financial bind after extending Cole Hamels.  The club went out and added some pieces this off season, but how much those pieces will help is in question.  The team traded Travor May and Vance Worley to the Twins for Ben Revere, flipped some minor pieces to Texas for Michael Young, and then went out and signed Delmon Young.  I'll let you think on that one while I sum things up:
 
Additions:
 
CF Ben Revere
3B Michael Young
SP John Lannan
LF Delmon Young
 
Subtractions (dating back to mid-season):
 
SP Trevor May
SP Vance Worley
SP Joe Blanton
CF Shane Victorino
RF Hunter Pence
 
2013 Outlook
 
Rather than a paragraph, here is a list of things the Phillies will be looking to have go right if they want any shot at competing (and yes, all of these things must happen):
 
1. Roy Halladay returns to form
2. Somehow, someway, Dominic Brown forces Delmon Young out of his starting spot
3. Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee continue to be really good
4. Michael Young doesn't start more than 100 games.
5. Chase Utley plays like 2008/2009 Chase Utley
6. Ryan Howard fights and claws his way to 2.0 WAR
7. Carlos Ruiz doesn't skip a beat coming off of his drug suspension
 
If all of these things happen, the team has an outside shot at 87 wins, which puts them in the 2nd Wild Card race.
 
Potential Breakout Player
 
Dominic Brown, OF
 
Give him playing time!  Seriously, if this guy doesn't have enough support from the organization to start over Delmon freaking Young, then they should just trade him.  He might not be the top player many thought he once could be, but it's not his fault he has now gotten blocked by Hunter Pence, John Mayberry, and Delmon Young.  If this guys gets adequate playing time, he can be a useful asset.  This is really a pie in the sky "Potential Breakout Player" though.
 
Potential Bust Player
 
Carlos "Chooch" Ruiz, C
 
I don't really know that there's much of a track record for players coming back off of PED suspensions, but I imagine that it isn't that great.  Ruiz is going to miss the first 25 games of 2013.  Really, last year was a kind of once-in-a-lifetime for him..215 ISO and .340 BABIP?  Sorry, not buying into it from a catcher not known for his power.
 
Starting Eight and Starting Rotation
 
C- Carlos Ruiz (when he comes back)
1B- Ryan Howard
2B- Chase Utley
SS- Jimmy Rollins
3B- Michael Young
LF- Delmon Young
CF- Ben Revere
RF- Darin Ruf/Dominic Brown
 
SP - Roy Halladay
SP - Cliff Lee
SP - Cole Hamels
SP - Kyle Kendrick
SP - John Lannan
 
Ryan Howard, Michael Young, and Delmon Young...all negative value players...will be regular starters in an offense that already was having trouble producing and preventing runs.
 
Expectations
 
Record: 72-90
Team MVP: Cole Hamels, 6.1 WAR
 
Lasting Thought
 
Every great thing in life much eventually come to an end, and Phillies fans are going to go through that this year.  I see the potential for a playoff team here, but the Braves and Nationals are so incredibly good that I just don't see the above roster winning many games.  Plus, let's not forget that the Mets also improved and schedules are more balanced.  This team is still attached to a LOT of money going forward, and they hurt their future chances quite a bit with the Ben Revere trade.  Still, it's hard not to be optimistic about your team when your top 3 is still Halladay, Lee, and Hamels.

2013 Season Previews, Parts 12 and 13: San Diego Padres and Pittsburgh Pirates

San Diego Padres
2012 Record: 76-86
Pythag Record: 75-87
Games Out of First: 18.0
 
Top Performers by WAR
 
1. Chase Headley, 6.0
2. Yasmani Grandal, 2.7
2. Cameron Maybin, 2.7
4. Chris Denorfia, 2.1
4. Will Venable, 2.1
 
2012 Recap
 
Last season was solid for the Padres given the situation they were given as a team.  They had some key injuries that really held them back.  In my opinion, this is a team that had the talent to be a .500 ball club but ultimately lacked the depth necessary to compete.  One player that stood above all others for the Padres in 2012 was third baseman Chase Headley.  Headley walked at a career high rate (12.3%), had easily his best ISO (.212), and apparently played some solid defense.  As seen above, this led Headley to the level of elite status at his position.  Outside of Headley, things weren't too terrible for San Diego.  They were tied for 10th in wRC+ and were top 7 at running the bases.  Unfortunately things didn't go well on the other side of the ball for the Padres.  The team was 20th in team UZR, 16th in team ERA (yes, despite playing in PETCO), and 16th in team xFIP.  When you break everything down, this is a club that (assuming the theoretical results hold true) should have been better.  This is where I truly believe that a lack of depth killed them.  They only had two starters go more than 100 innings and the lowest qualifying ERA on the pitching staff was 3.99 from Clayton Richard.  The staff's biggest problem was control as the team was 6th worst in walks per nine innings.
 
Off Season Recap
 
Well, this segment sure will be short.  The Padres were easily the quietest team this off season.  According to MLBTR's transaction tracker, they only two signings they made were Jason Marquis and Freddy Garcia.   This is okay though, because the Padres really didn't have a lot of major needs.  They could have been better off if they had signed Edwin Jackson or a similar caliber pitcher, but I believe the squad believes in Edinson Volquez, Casey Kelley, and Clayton Richard.  Offensively, they just need guys to be healthy and get back from suspension.  Carlos Quentin and Yasmani Grandal were quite excellent in the short amount of time they played last season, and having them back will help a lot.
 
Additions:
 
SP Freddy Garcia
SP Andrew Cashner (considering him an addition since he basically didn't play last year)
 
Subtractions:
 
No key subtractions
 
2013 Outlook
 
I was an optimist about the Padres last year, and I'm an optimist about them this year as well.  Even though Grandal being out 50 games is a humongous loss for the club, I still think they can be a strong squad.  Believe it or not, their strength is going to be offense.  They have a really deep and productive offensive unit led by Chase Headley and Carlos Quentin.  If they can avoid having their power numbers tumble, then the Padres will score a lot of runs relative to the ballpark they play in (and when they go to Coors and Chase, watch them...because they will score).  The pitching staff does need to get more consistent and productive though.  They need at least 120 IP from at least four starters (my own personal estimate) to be an 85 win ballclub.  If they can get at least 600 IP out of the top 5 starters in their rotation, they should be strong.  Here are the keys to the season:
 
1. Chase Headley- He needs to repeat.  Nothing is more central to what this team is trying to do than having Headley produce as an elite player.  He really was the only thing preventing them from being a 90 loss team last year, and his continuation of last year's production will be the core of the team's effort.
 
2. Edinson Volquez- If he doesn't learn how to control his pitches, the Padres are going nowhere.  They rely too much on his innings for him to be walking 5 batters per nine innings.  If he can get that number back down to 4 (where it was in 2008 when he broke out as a pitcher) then he can be a force to be reckoned with.  The Padres need their #2 to step his game up.
 
3. Carlos Quentin- This guy was acquired because he's one of those bats that just doesn't care what park he is hitting in.  No park can contain his power when he squares up the baseball.  In his short time last year, he showed that he can still absolutely mash.  Defensively he's still a massive liability, but his power is key.  Without it, Headley's production will mean a lot less.
 
Potential Breakout Player
 
Yonder Alonso, 1B
 
Simply put, Alonso is too strong and hits the ball too hard to put up a .120 ISO and a 6.4% HR/FB rate.  Everything else about his offensive game is great.  He walks a bunch, doesn't strike out, and hits all kinds of line drives.  All he needs is for his fly balls to start going over the wall.  When that happens, his offensive numbers will skyrocket.
 
Potential Bust Player
 
Chase Headley, 3B
 
No, I don't buy into his sudden 20+% HR/FB rate.  I also don't buy into his UZR (by defensive runs saved, he was a -3 run defender last year).  When these two things normalize, he's probably a 4 WAR player instead of a 6 or 7 WAR player.
 
Starting Eight and Starting Rotation
 
C- Nick Hundley (will be Yasmani Grandal when he returns from suspension)
1B- Yonder Alonso
2B- Logan Forsythe
SS- Everth Cabrera
3B- Chase Headley
LF- Carlos Quentin
CF- Cameron Maybin
RF- Will Venable
 
SP- Clayton Richard
SP- Edinson Volquez
SP- Eric Stults
SP- Jason Marquis
SP- Feddy Garcia
 
Expectations
 
Even though I think Headley will come down a bit, I love their offensive depth and the fact that they have 7 or 8 capable MLB starters.
 
Record: 82-80
Team MVP: Chase Headley, 4.7 WAR
 
Lasting Thought
 
If you want something good for water cooler talk, it might be cool to mention the possibility of the Padres being a darkhorse for the playoffs.  They don't have the front line talent that will give them headlines in the papers, but they have more depth than a lot of other teams.  They also have a really strong bullpen and shouldn't be prone to giving up games late.  They remind me a lot of the way the 2012 Baltimore Orioles were structured.
 

Pittsburgh Pirates
2012 Record: 79-83
Pythag Record: 78-84
Games Out of First: 9.0
 
Top Performers by WAR
 
1. Andrew McCutchen, 7.0
2. A.J. Burnett, 3.4
3. Pedro Alvarez, 2.6
4. Neil Walker, 2.5
5. 3-Way Tie at 1.7
 
2012 Recap
 
The Pirates were so incredibly close.  They got the two things they needed most: Andrew McCutchen breakout season and a random breakout by a pitcher (A.J. Burnett).  They even went out and acquired some depth at the deadline (Wandy Rodriguez, Travis Snider, and Gaby Sanchez).  In the end, the Pirates just couldn't hold up through September and ended up being under .500 for the 20th consecutive season.  The team's undoing was their lack of offense, where they finished 5th-worst in wRC+.  They got nothing out of SS, C, 1B, or RF.  While Garrett Jones did his best to alleviate the pain, but Jose Tabata and Casey McGehee were black holes on offense.  As far as pitching goes, the team was 14th in team xFIP and ERA.  They were also 15th in team UZR.  With what the Pirates acquired offensively at the deadline, they really should have finished better, but players eventually just tapered off.
 
Off Season Recap
 
The Pirates were another team that was surprisingly quiet this off season.  All they really did was sign Russell Martin to fix their catcher woes and flip Joel Hanrahan to Boston.  Really, the Pirates didn't need to do a whole lot.  On offense, their problems should largely fix themselves.  Martin is an immediate upgrade at catcher, Neil Walker will hope to play a full season, and Starling Marte should provide an additional presence in the outfield to balance out the offensive attack.
 
Additions:
 
C Russell Martin
 
Subtractions:
 
RP Joel Hanrahan
SP Kevin Correia
 
2013 Outlook
 
If nothing else is true, the Pirates should be a lot like the Padres.  They will be a deeper squad and decided to fix their issues internally.  They have a very young squad that figures to be better in just about every aspect of the game.  Garrett Jones will now be at first every day, so the defense in the outfield is immediately better. Starling Marte joins Andrew McCutchen as part of a very explosive outfield, and the pitching staff figures to have a better season with a full year of Wandy Rodriguez instead of Kevin Correia.  Here are some keys:
 
1. Pedro Alvarez- Pedro broke out in a big way last year.  He mashed 30 HR and produced a near-.800 OPS.  However, the key to the Pirates' 2013 season will be whether or not he can make more contact.  Striking out 30+% of the time just won't cut it for Alvarez.  If he can cut that number down to 25%, he has some massive offensive potential.
 
2. Andrew McCutchen- The BABIP was high, but part of that was McCutchen hitting a career-high LD%.  Watching him play, it was obvious that he was squaring the ball up more and seeing the ball extremely well.  Unfortunately for the Pirates, McCutchen really struggled mightily in the month of August.  He fell off when the team needed him most, which may have been the primary reason the club struggled.  When their star wasn't there, they didn't have anyone to step up and take charge.  If they want to get over the hump and win more games, they need him to stay strong the entire year.
 
Potential Breakout Player
 
James McDonald, SP
 
I really like McDonald as a pitcher.  He has strong stuff, he mixes it well, and he can last into ballgames.  Unfortunately he has trouble slowing himself down when things start to get poorly, so he is prone to being lit up.  Last year, McDonald really had a curious case as his ERA, FIP, and xFIP were all exactly identical (4.21).  This year, I look for McDonald to cut down on his walk rate (to a more respectable 3.3) and have a strong season.  The defense behind him is too good for his xFIP and ERA to be identical.
 
Potential Bust Player
 
Pedro Alvarez, 3B
 
Very rarely do players strike out 30+% of the time and still see success.  Considering Alvarez' defense is also poor, it really wouldn't surprise me if Alvarez gets his playing time cut if he doesn't improve that strikeout rate.  Long-term, the lack of contact is a big red flag, but ultimately I think Alvarez will overcome it.  I just have to label him as a bust candidate because the red flag is there.
 
2013 Starting Eight and Starting Rotation
 
C- Russell Martin
1B- Garrett Jones
2B- Neil Walker
SS- Clint Barmes
3B- Pedro Alvarez
LF- Starling Marte
CF- Andrew McCutchen
RF- Travis Snider/Jose Tabata
 
SP- A.J. Burnett
SP- Wandy Rodriguez
SP- James McDonald
SP- Jeff Karstens
SP- Kyle McPherson
 
Expectations
 
Record: 85-77
Team MVP: Andrew McCutchen, 6.5 WAR
 
Lasting Thought
 
The Pirates are good.  They've got top-tier talent, they've got depth, they *should* be adequate in all three phases of the game, and the rest of the NL Central outside of Cincinnati is pretty mediocre.  I wouldn't be surprised to see the Pirates as the team chasing down Cincinnati at the end of the season, and I think Pittsburgh will be in the middle of the dog fight for the 2nd wild card.  Let's not forget that the Pirates are still pretty darn young, too.  This team isn't going away for a while.

2013 Season Previews, Parts 10 and 11: New York Mets and Seattle Mariners

New York Metropolitans
2012 Record: 74-88
Pythag Record: 75-87
Games Out of First: 24.0
 
Top Performers by WAR
 
1. David Wright, 6.7
2. R.A. Dickey, 4.6
3. Jon Niese, 2.4
4. Ruben Tejada, 1.9
5. Scott Hairston, 1.5
5. Dillon Gee, 1.5
 
2012 Recap
 
Last year was a big year for the Mets.  After the Wilpons dealt with being attached to the Madoff Ponzi scheme, the organization needed to switch gears and come up with a new plan.  On the field, the transition was quite nice.  David Wright returned to form, R.A. Dickey broke out and won a Cy Young award, and young players like Jon Niese, Ruben Tejada, Dillon Gee, and Ike Davis (well, 2nd half Ike Davis) contributed positive value to the team.  The club also made a mid-season callup to the minors to bring in Matt Harvey, who dazzled with his electric breaking pitches in 60 late-season innings of work.  Overall, the product was simply completely outmatched by the clubs that Washington, Atlanta, and Philly have.  As far as comparison to the league goes, the Mets ranked 22nd in wRC+, 26th in UZR, 19th in BsR, and 15th in xFIP.  Decent pitching and base running helped counteract a weak offense and poor defense (the team's defense outcome is actually surprising given how great Wright was in the field last year).
 
Off Season Recap
 
The way I see it, the team had two clear and distinct motives: either sign or trade the duo of David Wright and R.A. Dickey.  In the case of the former, the club agreed to a shiny new contract that will give Wright a guaranteed $138 million through the year 2020.  In the case of the latter, the club took advantage of Toronto pursuing a chance to win.  The club flipped R.A. Dickey to the Jays for prospects Travis d'Arnaud and Noah Syndergaard (the club also parted ways with catcher Josh Thole, who is Dickey's personal catcher).  Outside of this, the Mets wound up not making any other key moves even though they were tied to several.  They were reportedly very deep into talks to trade for Justin Upton before he was shipped to Atlanta.  They also were reportedly in deep with Michael Bourn until a pick protection issue led them to not offer a deal as strong as the one the Indians offered.  Other than this, Scott Hairston found his way to Chicago, even though the Mets go into the 2013 season with some serious concerns in the outfield.
 
Additions:
 
C- Travis d'Arnaud
P- Noah Syndergaard
SP- Shaun Marcum
 
Subtractions:
 
SP- R.A. Dickey
C- Josh Thole
UTIL- Scott Hairston
 
2013 Outlook
 
Mets fans should simply not be concerned with where the Mets' win/loss record ends.  This year is a key year in the rebuilding effort of the franchise.  Now that Dickey and Wright have been dealt with, the club will look to the development of players such as Ike Davis, Ruben Tejada, Wilmer Flores, Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Jon Niese, Dillon Gee, and their collection of prospects.  Due to the lack of rush to bring them up, Wheeler and d'Arnaud will probably stay in the high minors until mid-season so the club can avoid losing a year of control on the players.  Outside of development, here are some key things for Mets fans to look out for:
 
1. David Wright's Health- We know how great Wright was last year, but now that he's signed to a big contract he needs to produce consistently or risk mockery.  A key to this will be his health.  Last year Wright was fully healthy and it really showed on the field.  He was stellar defensively and was a force at the plate.  I don't think he'll quite repeat his defensive numbers from last season, but if he were to do so, then he'll be an MVP candidate once again.
 
2. Johan Santana- Wait, why is he a key?  He's a key because this is the last year of his lucrative deal.  Santana is guaranteed 31 million dollars between his 2013 salary and the buyout on his 2014 team option.  If he can come back, be healthy, and perform well up to the all star break there is a chance that the Mets will be able to flip him and some of his contract elsewhere.  If he's not healthy, the club has to pony up that 31 million dollars and deal with getting zero value out of his contract.  Alderson and company are great at what they do, so I am intrigued by whether or not Santana will be in position to be dealt at the trade deadline.
 
Potential Breakout Player
 
Ike Davis, 1B
 
I like Ike!  Seriously, after getting over valley fever early in the season and getting passed the ankle injury that ended his 2011, Davis started to tear it up in the 2nd half of last season.  He clubbed his way to an OPS of .888 and 21 home runs after the break.  If he can stay healthy, Ike should be able to take advantage of a smaller Citi Field and work on breaking out into an All-Star mold.  I really like him going forward.
 
Potential Bust Player
 
David Wright, 3B
 
By default, I am required to talk about Wright here.  There are no other options to bust, and Wright did kinda find the fountain of youth last year.  I don't think his ISO or BABIP numbers will drop much (if at all).  Where I think Wright may bust is his defense.  For three years, he produced -10 run values by UZR like clockwork.  Suddenly the value jumped to 15.0 in 2012.  This 25 run swing in value is worth 2.5 wins of Wright's fWAR value.  That would take his 2012 season from 7.8 fWAR to 5.3 fWAR, which is a pretty significant drop.  I don't think this is going to happen though, so it's all good in the hood with Wright.
 
Projected Starting Eight and Starting Rotation
 
C- John Buck
1B- Ike Davis
2B- Daniel Murphy
SS- Ruben Tejada
3B- David Wright
LF- L  (Lucas Duda)
CF-O (Kirk Nieuwenhuis)
RF- L (Marlon Byrd)
 
SP- Johan Santana
SP- Jon Niese
SP- Matt Harvey
SP- Shaun Marcum
SP- Dillon Gee
 
Expectations
 
Record: 77-85
Team MVP: David Wright, 6.1 WAR
 
Lasting Thought
 
I like the direction the Mets are going in.  They have a young collection of talent that should be able to give Washington and Atlanta some fun races in a few years.  In any other division, the Mets would be looking to take over in a couple years (but that's just not going to happen with the way Washington and Atlanta have things cooking right now).  I feel like the organization needs to make one more big move to really set the rebuilding effort in the right direction, and it wouldn't shock me if that came after the 2013 season.
 

Seattle Mariners
2012 Record: 75-87
Pythag Record: 77-85
Games Out of First: 19.0
 
Top Performers by WAR
 
1. Felix Hernandez, 6.1
2. John Jaso, 3.3
3. Brendan Ryan, 3.3
4. Kyle Seager, 2.6
5. Dustin Ackley, 2.5
 
2012 Recap
 
Don't be fooled by the presence of four position players in Seattle's top WAR performers...they were a terrible offensive ball club again in 2012.  They were bottom five in wRC+, but their value as a unit was saved by their top 8 finish in the field.  Their pitching results really come as a part of this defense as well.  Along with pitching half their games in Safeco, Mariners pitchers enjoyed great defense in 2012 across the board.  Brendan Ryan and Dustin Ackley might be the best defensive combo in the middle of any infield in the bigs, the outfield was strong defensively, and John Jaso was praised across the cybersphere for his game calling and pitch framing.  Being good at the little things helped the Mariners reach 75 wins last year, but 2012 was ultimately defined by one key move for the Mariners: they shipped RF Ichiro Suzuki to the Yankees at the trade deadline.  Whether people want to admit it or not, moving Ichiro away from the club was in the best interest of the team.  It created roster space and eliminated the complexity that came with Ichiro being an international superstar.
 
Off Season Recap
 
This was a busy and productive off season for the Mariners. While the club didn't change much in terms of personnel, they did make some key moves (for better or for worse).  The front liner here is the massive extension that the club gave Felix Hernandez.  While the dollars in this are huge (and bring his current contract to 7 years /$175 million) the most intriguing thing is a fantastic last-year option.  If Felix spends 130 consecutive days on the DL due to any kind of right elbow surgery, the club can exercise a team option for...wait for it...1 million dollars.  Felix will be 34 when this option is possible to exercise, and while I hope he never has to have the surgery to repair his elbow it would be fascinating to see this thing used.
 
Additions:
 
DH- Kendrys Morales
LF- Michael Morse
OF Jason Bay
OF Raul Ibanez
SP Joe Saunders
 
Subtractions (dating back to last year)
 
UTIL Chone Figgins (released, but paid 8 million dollars)
RF Ichiro Suzuki
C John Jaso
 
2013 Outlook
 
The Mariners are one of those rare teams that looks like it has some upside but not enough to make the playoffs.  Felix is almost a lock to have a great season as the team's #1 starter, but the rotation behind him is a complete mess.  Offensively, the club desperately needs good seasons from Montero, Smoak, Ackley, Morse, and Morales.  This team is loaded with offensive potential, but it really needs its young players to start to break out.  At the end of last year, Smoak showed some potential and is probably the lead candidate of this group to finally get over the hump.  While the team picked up some free wins in getting Houston in the division, I think the rest of the division is just too good right now.  I think Seattle will be just a tiny step behind Oakland and Texas and a good bit behind Los Angeles in 2013.  They have some interesting pieces, but it doesn't look like they have enough to finally bust out.  Here are some keys:
 
1. What to do about Jesus Montero?- With Mike Zunino breathing down his neck coming after the catcher's spot long-term and the duo of Smoak/Morales manning first base and DH, Montero needs to prove that he was worth giving up Michael Pineda.  I don't want to call it a do-or-die season since Montero is the ripe old age of 23, but the season really does feel like one where Montero needs to start producing or lose his job.  If Smoak breaks out and Morales has a good season (forcing the M's to want to bring him back) then Montero quickly appears to be out of a starting job.  One of Montero/Smoak/Morales is going to be the odd man out at the end of the season when Zunino comes up to play, and Montero certainly will be considered as that guy.
 
2. What to do about Justin Smoak?- Literally the same scenario as above.  Either break out and have a good season or lose your job.  The Mariners can't afford to wait forever (at least not with Zunino looking like he's going to be ready by the end of this season).
 
3. Someone in the rotation please stand up- Walker/Hultzen/Paxton is sitting in the minors developing, but the club needs someone else to step up and have a big year.  While the candidates aren't strong, one of Saunders/Iwakuma/Beaven/Ramirez needs to come up with a big year if the Mariners want a serious shot at a WC run.
 
Potential Breakout Player
 
Justin Smoak, 1B
 
Plenty of good candidates here, but Smoak has to be the top guy.  September numbers always have to be taken with a massive boulder of salt, but Smoak absolutely tore it up the last month of last season.  He's always been able to draw walks and avoid striking out at unreasonable rates, and his BIP splits aren't even that bad.  He just needs to start turning more of his empty fly balls into home runs.  If he can take advantage of having Houston in the division and having shorter fences at Safeco, then this should happen for him and he can turn into an offensive weapon.
 
Potential Bust Player
 
The Mariners don't have anyone that was good enough last year to really be considered a potential bust.
 
Projected Starting Nine and Starting Rotation
 
C- Jesus Montero
1B- Justin Smoak
2B- Dustin Ackley
SS- Brendan Ryan
3B- Kyle Seager
LF- Michael Morse
CF- Franklin Gutierrez
RF- Michael Saunders
DH- Kednrys Morales
 
SP- Felix Hernandez
SP- Joe Saunders
SP- Blake Beaven
SP- Hisashi Iwakuma
SP- Erasmo Ramirez
 
Expectations
 
Record: 83-79
Team MVP: Felix Hernandez, 6.4 WAR
 
Lasting Thought
 
The AL Wild Card race is going to be wide open this year.  Between the AL East, AL West, and two wild card spots, there could be upwards of eleven teams (Boston, New York, Los Angeles, Baltimore, Tampa, Kansas City, Seattle, Cleveland, Chicago, Texas, and Oakland) that have a legitimate shot at the post season.  If I was forced to rank these clubs in terms of their shot at post season play, I would probably rank Seattle 6th behind NY, LA, Tampa, Texas, and Oakland.  As long as the Mariners continue to develop young talent, they will find themselves with a shot at sneaking their way into the post season and that is what matters most.

2013 Season Previews, Parts Eight and Nine: Kansas City Royals + Toronto Blue Jays

Kansas City Royals
2012 Record: 72-90
Pythag Record: 74-88
Games Out of First: 16.0

Top Players by WAR

1. Alex Gordon, 6.2
2. Alcides Escobar, 3.2
3. Billy Butler, 2.9
3. Mike Moustakas, 2.9
5. Salvador Perez, 2.8

2012 Recap

Last season was supposed to be the year that the Royals got over the hump.  They were the trendy pick by many fans to break out and actually challenge the Tigers for the AL Central crown.  Well...the Royals didn't exactly do that.  Their breakout candidates didn't break out and they basically repeated their 2011 results.  One of the individuals most expected to breakout was first baseman Eric Hosmer, who had impressed in his debut season in 2011.  Unfortunately Hosmer suffered a case of the BABIP blues as the result of a GB/FB ratio near 2.0.  When a player doesn't have elite speed (Hosmer can run, but he's not Tony Campana, Mike Trout, or Michael Bourn on the bases) his ratio can really hurt, and that's what happened with Hosmer.  Another breakout candidate who didn't exactly break out was third baseman Mike Moustakas.  Outside of his defensive metrics (which suggest he was a defensive deity) he had troubles last year.  Unlike Hosmer, he had BABIP issues that were the result of a lack of power.  Moustakas hit plenty of fly balls last year (GB/FB ratio on the short side of one, which is good) but only had a HR/FB rate of 9.0%.  This figure, which was low for a player of his power, was definitely one of the root causes of his offensive struggles.  Outside of these two players, the Royals did have several good performances.  Alex Gordon had a stellar year, Billy Butler was a monster with the bat at DH, and Salvador Perez showcased the incredible defense we've heard so much about.  This didn't do anything to help the pitching staff though, which had its two top value pitchers come out of the bullpen (and a top arm of Luis Mendoza).

Off Season Recap

When you have a need and your job is in serious jeopardy, you need to make a bold move.  The Royals did just that when they sent top prospects Wil Myers and Jake Ordorizzi to Tampa Bay for SP James Shields and P Wade Davis (whom they plan to use in the rotation).  The team also went out and acquired Ervin Santana while re-signing Jeremy Guthrie.  While not the top collection of arms in the world, this staff is a gigantic improvement over what the Royals had before and I'm starting to buy into Dayton Moore's thinking just a little bit more.  While I truly believe Wil Myers will be a stud in this league, the Royals couldn't pass up the opportunity to acquire a top starter.

Additions (going back to last year):

SP James Shields
SP Wade Davis
SP Ervin Santana
SP Jeremy Guthrie
C George Kottaras

Subtractions:

OF Wil Myers
SP Jake Ordorizzi

2013 Outlook

Last year I was not sold on the Royals at all.  They had improved offensively, but the pitching staff was still incredibly weak.  This time around, things are a bit different.  They head into 2013 with a roster full of talent. While not particularly deep (this will be their undoing in the long run) the Royals have loaded up with breakout/bounceback candidates.  Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Salvador Perez, Ervin Santana, and Wade Davis all look to be set for bounceback/breakout campaigns in 2013.  If the team can get what they expect out of Alex Gordon, Billy Butler, and James Shields then the Royals will have solidly set themselves ahead of the rest of the middle-tier AL Central teams.  Their rotation is much better, and they have a solid back end of the bullpen set up with breakout candidate Greg Holland.  Here are the keys to the Royals' 2013 season:

1. Offensive Breakout- the Royals are seriously set to become a great offensive team.  If they can get bounebacks/breakouts from Salvador Perez, Eric Hosmer, and Mike Moustakas they have a chance to compete for an AL Wild Card spot.  If only two break out, they should be poised for a winning season and an outside shot at a WC spot, and if one breaks out they still have a chance to win more than 81 games.  Having top prospects and young players only means something if those guys eventually produce, and the Royals need that to happen this season.

2. Starting Rotation Bounceback- Right now the running slogan for the Royals' rotation would be "James Shields and the #4 starters".  If the Royals want to be taken seriously, then the trio of Guthrie/Santana/Davis need to produce.  The team has a very serious lack of rotation depth, so the health of these guys is also going to be highly important.

Potential Breakout Player

Salvador Perez, C

Very hard for me to pick just one guy for this, but I'm going with my favorite of the group.  Salvador Perez is one of those players you just need to see in person.  As I wrote in his breakout candidate article, he's got a serious cannon for an arm and is amazing at picking off base runners and shutting down a running game.  If he can use his solid contact ability to produce enough line drives, he can provide a solid number of homers and doubles out of the bottom of the order (my guess is he'll hit 6th).

Potential Bust Player

Alex Gordon, LF

There is still a debate to be had over whether Gordon is a mid-.300's BABIP giant or if that number is unrealistic to expect out of his performance.  Regardless of what that number is, Gordon's ISO dipped quite a bit last year, which is a red flag going forward.  A .160 ISO is pretty run of the mill, but Gordon wasn't hurt by it too much last year.  The concern here is over the possibility that both could happen at the same time, which would seriously hurt his value as a player.  He's still a defensive stud and runs the bases adequately, so I think the chances he busts are low.

Projected Starting Nine and Pitching Rotation

C- Salvador Perez
1B- Eric Hosmer
2B- Chris Getz
SS- Alcides Escobar
3B- Mike Moustakas
LF- Alex Gordon
CF- Lorenzo Cain
RF- Jeff Francouer

SP- James Shields
SP- Jeremy Guthrie
SP- Ervin Santana
SP- Wade Davis
SP- Bruce Chen (BRUCE CHEN)

Expectations:

Record: 84-78
Finish: Going to stop doing this and just post results at the end
Team MVP: Alex Gordon, 5.9 WAR

Lasting Thought

If the Royals can avoid the injury bug, they can do something pretty similar to what the 2011 Brewers did.  However, if they have to start dipping into the high minors or their bench for talent, their performance will dip considerably.  For this reason, I'm predicting a modest 84 wins for the club, which should be enough to help Dayton Moore keep his job going into the strong 2014 SP free agent class.  However, the ultimate key to this year is going to be the club re-signing James Shields.  If they don't do that, then they seriously screwed the pooch on this off season's trade and things will look bleak.

Toronto Blue Jays
2012 Record: 73-89
Pythag Record: 74-88
Games Out of First: 22.0

Top Performers by WAR:

1. Edwin Encarnacion, 4.6 (no, you read that right)
2. Brett Lawrie, 4.1
3. Jose Bautista, 3.2
4. Yunel Escobar, 2.5
5. Brandon Morrow, 2.4

2012 Recap

In case you haven't noticed yet, we've developed a bit of a trend here in the bottom ten teams in the league.  In an environment that is conducive to pitchers, your chances of being good are poor when you can't pitch.  The Blue Jays gave up a staggering 1.27 HR/9 last year as a pitching staff and have one returning starter with an ERA under 4.50.  This was pretty unfortunate, as the team was pretty average when it came to fielding and hitting the baseball.  The season certainly would have been better had the team had a healthy Jose Bautista, too (he played only 92 games last year).  Two key drastic changes in performance defined the Blue Jays as a team: the breakout of Edwin Encarnacion and the bust job that Ricky Romero pulled.  Both took career trends and slapped them in the face, as Encarnacion became one of the game's best hitters and Romero struggled with health and performance issues all season.

2013 Off Season

For a couple of years now, people have been praising the moves of GM Alex Anthopolous.  However, people were wondering when he would finally make a big move.  Well this winter Anthopolous made two HUGE moves.  In a trade with Miami, he sent out a group of prospects including Jake Marisnick and Adeiny Hechavarria for a package of players that included SP Josh Johnson, SP Mark Buehrle, SS Jose Reyes, C John Buck, and UTIL Emilio Bonifacio.  Then in a separate trade with the Mets, the club sent prospects Travis d'Arnaud and Noah Syndergaard in exchange for breakout ace R.A. Dickey.  The team also brought in FA outfielder Melky Cabrera and figure to have a healthy Ricky Romero.  Talk about improvements.

Additions:

SP Josh Johnson
SS Jose Reyes
SP Mark Buehrle
UTIL Emilio Bonifacio
SP R.A. Dickey
OF Melky Cabrera

Subtractions:

SP Carlos Villanueva
SS Yunel Escobar (people forget that while he was a pain last year, he was also good)

And prospects:

Travis d'Arnaud
Noah Syndergaard
Adeiny Hechavarria
Jake Marisnick

2013 Outlook

Everyone is bugging out about how much the Jays improved as a team, but let's settle down for just a second.  Firstly, they didn't just add value onto value.  They did lose Yunel Escobar and Carlos Villanueva, who combined for close to three wins in value.  Plus, let's not act like Dickey, Johnson, and Buehrle are just going to waltz into a tougher ballpark and tougher division offensively and be unaffected.  While I do think Dickey will be fine since he is such a unique pitcher, I don't have much faith in Josh Johnson or Mark Buehrle.  With Johnson, his shoulder issues have led to a significant loss in velocity that he very likely will never gain back.  With Buehrle, he has pedestrian stuff and could definitely get knocked around.  However, I do think the AL East factor is a bit oversold.  The Yankees lost a ton of their power and the Red Sox and Rays both lost key offensive players dating back to mid-season (Adrian Gonzalez and B.J. Upton).  There are issues with rebounding/bust candidates with the Jays as well (need Encarnacion and Bautista to be healthy and not take steps back).  This all being said, this team has some pretty ridiculous upside.  They have the potential to be above average or better at first base (Encarnacion), shortstop (Reyes), left field (Cabrera), third base (Lawrie), right field (Bautista), and in the rotation (Dickey, Johnson, and Romero).  Let's get to the keys:

1. Ricky Romero- I'm not even going to get into the transition process for the three pitchers coming in to the organization.  If this team is going to win the AL East, Romero needs to be healthy and get his control issues...um...err...under control.  I think a lot of his issues were injury related and I expect him to bounce back.  There isn't any kind of pressure for him to be anything better than a #5 starter at this point, so I think he's poised to come back.

2. Live up to the hype- I know some people don't buy much into sports psychology, but feeling constant pressure as an athlete is difficult and wears you down.  The team is going to by hyped as the AL East favorite all season, and if they don't live up to it then heads are going to roll.  With as great as Anthopolous has been as a GM, ownership will take serious issue with him if this team doesn't win ballgames.

Potential Breakout Player

Brett Lawrie, 3B

I really thought last year would be Lawrie's breakout campaign, but the injury bug got in the way.  His high-intensity style of play really hurt him (more puns) when he fell into a camera well at Yankee Stadium and suffered an ankle injury.  This year, however, should be different for Lawrie.  He's a contact machine with good power and a strong glove.  I imagine the best place in the order for him is second in front of Bautista/Encarnacion and behind Reyes.  He has the ability to put up some crazy traditional and non-traditional numbers.

Potential Bust Player

Josh Johnson, SP

This year he doesn't have a massive ballpark to hide the issues with his arm.  I really do think that Johnson's career is slowly coming to a close and that this year will be the proverbial dagger.  If he doesn't get hurt (unlikely) then I think the loss in velocity he suffered in 2012 will be a serious issue in performance.  As we've seen, the Rogers Center likes home runs and so does the rest of the AL East.  The chances he'll completely bust are small, but I'm definitely no Johnson fan going into this season.

Projected Starting Nine and Starting Rotation

C- J.P. Arencibia
1B- Edwin Encarnacion
2B- Maicer Izturis/Emilio Bonifacio
SS- Jose Reyes
3B- Brett Lawrie
LF- Melky Cabrera
CF- Colby Rasmus
RF- Jose Bautista
DH- Adam Lind

SP- R.A. Dickey
SP- Josh Johnson
SP- Brandon Morrow
SP- Mark Buehrle
SP- Ricky Romero

Expectations

 Record: 90-72
Team MVP: Jose Bautista, 6.3 WAR (seriously, this guy is still insanely good)

Lasting Thought

It's do or die time for the Jays.  They've been talked about as a breakout candidate each of the past few seasons and haven't seen the results.  This year the rest of the division appears to be weak, and the Jays should finally have the opportunity to strike.  The potentially is there for a 100-win roster (if literally everything goes right), but the potential is also there for a .500 ballclub.  There are a lot of questions for the Jays going into this year, and the hope is that positive answers are given to all of them.

2013 Season Previews, Parts Six and Seven: Boston Red Sox + Miami Marlins

Boston Red Sox
2012 Record: 69-93
Pythag Record: 74-88
 
Top Performers by WAR
 
1. Dustin Pedroia, 4.7
2. Jon Lester, 3.3
3. David Ortiz, 2.9
4. Adrian Gonzalez, 2.5
5. Felix Doubront, 2.1
 
2012 Recap
 
The first season in the Ben Cherington regime certainly did not go well for the Red Sox.  Their season can be defined by one key signing: Bobby Valentine.  In the media, the report was that this was a signing that was over the head of Ben Cherington and made by team president Larry Lucchino.  Well the decision certainly was not a good one.  Valentine was constantly in the news for the wrong reasons, he lost his club early in the season, and he was rightfully fired at season's end.  Under Valentine, some Red Sox players seemed to regress.  Daniel Bard completely fell apart after trying to move to the rotation, Jon Lester had the worst year of his career, and the offense wasn't as strong as it was expected to be.  While certainly not the biggest reason for their struggles, injuries certainly didn't help the Red Sox last year.  Jacoby Ellsbury, David Ortiz, and others missed significant chunks of playing time.  However, the Sox' season ultimately comes down to this: they played as an average team in a really good division (as you can see, they played 5 games under their Pythag record).  They fielded the ball well, were ok on the bases, didn't struggle terribly with the bats, but had trouble as a pitching staff due to the performance of the starting rotation.
 
Off Season Recap
 
As with other bad teams, the change for the Red Sox came largely in-season.  The front office decided to make its first key move by unloading the contracts of Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, and Adrian Gonzalez on the Los Angeles Dodgers.  Prior to this move, the club parted ways with popular third baseman Kevin Youkilis in order to make room for prospect Will Middlebrooks.  These moves helped the Sox unload large amounts of payroll while creating more roster flexibility.  The change continued in the off season as the club kicked Valentine to the curb and traded for former pitching coach John Farrell to serve as the team's manager.  Farrell serves as a key move because he has worked personally with Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, and other Red Sox pitchers that will look to rebound in 2013.
 
Additions:
 
P Ryan Dempster
C/1B Mike Napoli
RP Craig Breslow
SS Stephen Drew
RP Joel Hanrahan
OF Shane Victorino
OF Jonny Gomes
C David Ross
 
Subtractions (dating back to mid-season):
 
SP Josh Beckett
LF Carl Crawford
1B Adrian Gonzalez
1B James Loney
3B Kevin Youkilis
OF Cody Ross
 
2013 Outlook
 
As you can see, the theme with this Red Sox team is turnover.  They have completely revamped the roster and will look to compete in 2013.  The 2013 Red Sox are going to be all about rebounding from previous failures and injuries.  A short list of individuals who look to go from poor/injured to useful/healthy includes: Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Andrew Bailey, Daniel Bard, Mike Napoli, Stephen Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, David Ortiz, Shane Victorino, and John Lackey.  To sum it up quickly: the 2013 Red Sox have something to prove.  As far as talent goes, they have the potential for a very strong bullpen, a passable starting rotation, a solid offense, and good team defense.  If they can stay healthy and bounce back (asking a lot from an older team) they can make a run at the playoffs.  If they want to do that, here are the keys:
 
1. Jon Lester- I don't want to say everything rests on Lester's shoulders, but a lot of the weight here does.  Without its ace, a pitching staff can go from solid to bad in quick fashion.  Lester needs to get back to the basics, find his mechanics, and get back to striking guys out.  With Farrell back at manager, I am confident that Lester has the coaching and the tools to rebound and return to ace form in 2013.
 
2. Jacoby Ellsbury- Ellsbury needs to prove that his career isn't going to be simply summed up by one good season (2011).  He needs to stay healthy and be more consistent with his bat.  The team doesn't necessarily need Ellsbury to perform with the bat at an elite level for him to be effective.  What the Red Sox need is a full season of his fantastic defense and base running.  A healthy Ellsbury can rack up over a win of value on these two assets alone.
 
3. John Lackey- I honestly believe that a stable and healthy Lackey can be a key to the Red Sox' season.  With so many questions in the rotation, having a veteran presence with no expectations come out of nowhere to contribute positive value is huge.  While the expectations are probably for him to be the 5th starter behind Lester, Dempster, Doubront, and Buchholz, Lackey still has the ability to be an effective pitcher.  Rotational depth goes a long way in the offense-heavy AL East, so if Lackey is healthy and contributing, chances are that the Red Sox are doing pretty well.
 
Potential Breakout Player
 
Will Middlebrooks, 3B
 
Last season, everyone got a bit of a taste of what made Middlebooks a top 100 prospect.  He was given the starting job at third after the Youkilis trade and didn't disappoint.  In a season of few bright spots, Middlebrooks showed strong power and produced well with his bat on his way to a 2 fWAR performance.  While I think Middlebrooks has a good chance to break out, his splits as far as walks and strikeouts were concerning.  He didn't show a strong contact ability and struggled to produce walks.  These bring up just a bit of a red flag, but ultimately I think things will be fine.
 
Potential Bust Player
 
Ryan Dempster, SP
 
In 2012, Dempster started the season on fire with the Chicago Cubs.  At the trade deadline, Dempster was shipped to Texas and got his first taste of American League baseball.  Dempster was lit up while in Texas and struggled mightily with leaving pitches up in the strike zone.  While he struck out more people than usual, he also left up more than his fair share of hanging breaking pitches.  While I don't expect Dempster to be this bad, don't be surprised if he gets roughed up a bit by AL lineups.
 
2013 Starting Nine and Starting Rotation
 
C- Jarrod Saltalamacchia
1B- Mike Napoli
2B- Dustin Pedroia
SS- Stephen Drew
3B- Will Middlebrooks
LF- Jonny Gomes
CF- Jacoby Ellsbury
RF- Shane Victorino
DH- David Ortiz
 
SP- Jon Lester
SP- Clay Buchholz
SP- Ryan Dempster
SP- Felix Doubront
SP- John Lackey
 
Expected Finishes
 
Record: 78-84
Finish: 5th Place AL East
Most Valuable Player: Dustin Pedroia, 6.3 WAR
 
Lasting Thought

Ultimately this is an above-average team competing in a really good and somewhat impossible to predict division.  I really think that the 2013 AL East is a complete crapshoot.  While the Red Sox decided to go for a win-now mold instead of a rebuilding effort, I think they can be strong in the immediate future given that I still have some faith in their front office (though that faith certainly dwindled with how they transitioned into 2012).  This probably isn't a playoff team, but I wouldn't be totally surprised if they were in the Wild Card race in August.
 

Miami Marlins
2012 Record: 69-93
Pythag Record: 68-94
 
Top Performers by WAR
 
1. Giancarlo Stanton, 5.4
2. Josh Johnson, 3.8
3. Jose Reyes, 2.8
4. Ricky Nolasco, 2.7
5. Anibal Sanchez, 2.3
5. Justin Ruggiano, 2.3
 
2012 Recap
 
I feel legitimately bad for Giancarlo Stanton (actually no I don't, considering he's making a half a million dollars and is barely older than I am).  Jeffry Loria did it again.  He brought everyone in, took advantage of a situation, and ripped everyone's hearts straight from their chests.  Two words sum up what happened for the Marlins in 2012: crime and punishment.  The Marlins committed millions of dollars to terrible contracts in order to sell their new brand and get people to come to their new ballpark.  Well it really didn't work, and I'm not surprised that it didn't.  When things started to go poorly, management completely overreacted and made bad trades that led to even worse results.  I really wish I could focus more on the players, but so few of the guys remain that I'll keep it to Giancarlo Stanton himself: Stanton played 123 games, hit 37 homers, and clubbed his way to a 158 OPS+.  He was an absolute freak at the plate who carries the potential for 50+ HR in a full season with strong defense in right field.  As you can see above, he contributed 5.4 wins of value while playing just 76% of his team's games.  Stanton, and only Stanton, was the bright spot for the Marlins in 2012.
 
Off Season Recap
 
Two more words for you: fire sale!  For the third time, the Marlins have taken a roster, built it up, and completely dumped it.  This time, however, they started doing it less than 4 months after they put it all together.  At the trade deadline, they flipped Anibal Sanchez and Omar Infante to Detroit for SP Jacob Turner.  They also flipped Matt Dominguez to Houston.  Then they decided to flip Hanley Ramirez to the Dodgers.  This set the stage for the big dump in the off season: the Marlins flipped SP Josh Johnson, SP Mark Buehrle, SS Jose Reyes, and UTIL Emilo Bonifacio to Toronto for a slew of cheap contracts and prospects.  The move didn't just gut the roster, but it was a complete and utter slap in the face to everyone who has ever bothered to support the Marlins as an organization.  Today, owner Jeffry Loria wrote a letter to the public in which he seemed to deflect all blame from himself and the organization.  All this trade was about was dumping bad contracts that the team never planned to actually live up to.
 
Additions (dating back to mid-season):
 
1B Casey Kotchman
UTIL Chone Figgins
RP Jon Rauch
RP Kevin Slowey
RP Michael Wuertz
UTIL Placido Polanco
C Jeff Mathis
SP Nathan Eovaldi
 
And prospects:
 
Jacob Turner
Adeiny Hechavarria
Jake Marisnick
Henderson Alvarez
Justin Nicolino
Anthony DeSclafani
 
Subtractions:
 
2B Omar Infante
SP Anibal Sanchez
SP Mark Beuhrle
SP Josh Johnson
SS Jose Reyes
SS/3B Hanley Ramirez
UTIL Emilio Bonifacio
C John Buck
 
2013 Outlook
 
Seriously, just screw the Marlins.  Yes they got quite a bit of value back in their trade, but you should be expected to bring back a big haul when you dump almost your entire starting roster of players.  Quite honestly, the 2013 Marlins remind me of the Cleveland Indians from the movie "Major League."  They are going to be a band of misfits and veterans that are not expected to do anything.  However, unlike the movie, I don't think anyone should expect some miraculous great season from the Marlins.  The team is going to be bad because they simply do not have any kind of Major League talent outside of Giancarlo Stanton.  Therefore the team's 2013 campaign will be focused on one thing:
 
1. Development of young talent- Turner, Stanton, Hechavarria, Morrison, Eovaldi, and Solano are going to get a LOT of playing time in the majors this year.  Since a lot of the talent the Marlins acquired in the off season is still in the low minors, these guys are going to have to develop quickly if the Marlins want to win anything.  Quick development could lead to a pesky squad that puts together some wins against good teams late in the season, but things are going to be rough at the start for the Marlins.
 
Potential Breakout Player
 
Adeiny Hechavarria, SS
 
I'll preface this by saying this: I don't think Hechavarria is going to break out, but it's not like my options with the Marlins were deep in the "breakout" category.  Reading scouting reports and watching some film, Hechavarria is a light-bat with a gold glove.  He has good range and a strong arm, which should make him a quality defensive shortstop at the MLB level.  If he can manage to hold a spot every day, then he can probably create a win of value between his glove and his legs.  However, it may be tough for him to get the necessary playing time.
 
Potential Bust Player
 
Giancarlo Stanton isn't going to bust, and they don't have anyone else on the big league roster that qualifies as a bust candidate.  Some might think Giancarlo will have a down year simply because it's known that he doesn't want to play in Miami any more, but I don't buy into this.  Giancarlo has never come across as anything less than a true professional, and I expect him to have a big season.
 
2013 Starting Eight and Starting Rotation
 
C- Rob Brantley
1B- Logan Morrison
2B- Donovan Solano
SS- Adeiny Hechavarria
3B- Placido Polanco
LF- Juan Pierra
CF- Justin Ruggiano
RF- Giancarlo Stanton
 
SP- Ricky Nolasco
SP- Henderson Alvarez
SP- Wade LeBlanc
SP- Nathan Eovaldi
SP- Jacob Turner
 
Expected Finishes
 
Record: 60-102
Finish: 5th Place NL East
MVP: Giancarlo Stanton, 7.1 WAR
 
Lasting Thought
 
The NL East went and got itself really good, but the Marlins are not involved in that.  They have a bad roster, very little committed money, and now have to wait for their top prospects to come up through from the low minors.  The best thing that can possibly happen for this franchise is for Selig's replacement to have something against Jeffry Loria and kick him out the door.  Until that happens, we'll probably see a decent Marlins team once every 8 years.

2013 Season Previews, Parts 4&5: Minnesota Twins + Cleveland Indians

Minnesota Twins
2012 Record: 66-96
Pythag Record: 68-94
Games Out of First: 22.0
 
Top Performers by WAR:
 
1. Denard Span, 4.8
2. Joe Mauer, 4.1
3. Jamey Carroll, 3.2
4. Josh Willingham, 2.9
5. Scott Diamond, 2.6
 
2012 Recap
 
Last year certainly wasn't the improvement that a lot of people expected from the Twins.  Certainly, the loss of Scott Baker before the season really put a damper on the team's chances to win games but this wasn't supposed to be a 96-loss team.  One of the things that hurt most was a complete lack of offense at second base and shortstop.  The position had a revolving door, and that door never stopped revolving.  Another major problem the Twins had was depth.  If a starter got hurt or was struggling, the team didn't have options to come up and succeed from the minors.  Pretty much all of their offensive and pitching replacements were terrible, which made it really easy for the team to rack up losses with Baker, Blackburn, and Liriano all either being or bad.  They didn't have a good bat to pinch-hit late in games, so they were bad offensively in high-leverage situations.  When it comes down to it, this just wasn't a team that was going to win much unless the original starters on offense and in the pitching staff were healthy and performing well.  The Twins ranked last in starter WAR (yes, even behind Colorado) and were close to last in starter ERA despite playing rather great team defense.
 
Off Season Reload
 
Terry Ryan is a really experienced and highly intelligent GM.  He knows how to listen to his people and they appear to know how to listen to him.  The message this off season was clear: we need pitchers, and we need pitchers BADLY.  The change didn't come just at the MLB level (even though the team traded away Liriano mid-season and let Scott Baker walk in free agency to the Cubs).  The club made a clear and distinct effort to move pieces to bring in pitching talent.  The club moved center fielders Denard Span and Ben Revere to the Nationals and Phillies respectively and were able to bring back a hoard of young arms.  Vance Worley, Trevor May, and Alex Meyer will all acquired.  Meanwhile, the club added Mike Pelfrey and Kevin Correia for rotation depth and even gave Rich Harden a minor league contract.  Message sent and message received, gentlemen.
 
Additions:
 
P Alex Meyer
P Trevor May
P Vance Worley
P Rich Harden
P Mike Pelfrey
P Kevin Correia
P Kyle Gibson*
 

*= Returning from Tommy John Surgery
 
Subtractions (going back to last year):
 
CF Ben Revere
CF Denard Span
P Francisco Liriano
P Scott Baker
 
2013 Outlook
 
The outlook for this team certainly isn't good, but it's also not terrible.  A lot of people think that Cleveland, Kansas City, and Chicago are all well above Minnesota in that middle tier of mediocrity in the AL Central, but I really don't think the difference is that great.  While Span and Revere provided a lot of value last year, most of that was via defense and on the bases.  Quite frankly, the club wasn't helped much by either given the fact that the pitchers gave up 1.24 HR per nine innings and struck out so few batters that any defensive efforts were completely overshadowed by the sheer volume of hard contact that came at them.  With this in mind, let's look at the 2013 focuses:
 
1. Get Morneau Healthy and Trade Him: I know he won an MVP, I know he's really fun to see in commercials, but the Twins badly need to get some organizational value out of Justin Morneau.  He turns 32 in May and has managed to rack up a pretty significant injury history.  The ideal thing for the Twins is that he fully recovers from the nagging issues he's had and produces a monster first 4 months of the season.  Then the club can flip his left-handed power bat (read: EXTREMELY rare at the deadline and HIGHLY valued) for some more of that quality young pitching.
 
2. Joe Mauer- Last year proved that he's back.  However, the golden boy of Minnesota baseball turns 30 on April 19th.  This means the window for the team to build around him to compete is quickly closing.  He doesn't have the ability to catch as many games as he used to, so his value isn't as great as it used to be and he's no longer a superstar, but he is still an All-Star caliber player who is the key focus of the team.  If he's healthy, his high intelligence will help build what will soon be a very, very young pitching staff.
 
Potential Breakout Player
 
Kyle Gibson, SP
 
He may not make the rotation out of camp, but that shouldn't be considered a disappointment for a starter coming back from TJS.  Gibson provides something that the Twins desperately need as an organization: strikeouts.  Will his stuff be as great as before surgery?  Don't know, because I haven't seen him yet this spring.  However, the potential certainly is there, and he's rated Baseball America's #68 prospect for a reason.  He's a big, tall presence on the mound that comes at you with a strong fastball and sharp breaking pitches.  Making the Twins rotation in-season certainly won't be hard, so look for Gibson to get a shot and potentially make the most of it (possibly an AL Rookie of the Year candidate).
 
Potential Bust Player
 
Josh Willingham, LF/DH
 
Let's face a very important fact here: Willingham doesn't have a 4.5 win bat.  His HR/FB rate soared in 2012 despite moving into Target Field, and his ISO jumped 32 points as a result.  That just shouldn't happen at age 33.  This year I think Willingham is going to get a significant amount of time at DH with Morneau at first and Mauer behind the plate.  If 70% of his games can come at DH, then Willingham still has some value.  However, he's probably going to get 70% of his playing time in left field.  This means he has to play defense, which he is not good at.
 
2013 Starting Eight and Starting Rotation
 
Have to make a lot of guesses here, because the Twins have about as many open competitions in camp as anyone.
 
C: Joe Mauer
1B: Justin Morneau
2B: Your guess is as good as mine
SS: Jamey Carroll
3B: Trevor Plouffe
LF: Josh Willingham
CF: Aaron Hicks (if he wins the job, which he might not)
RF: Ryan Doumit/Platoon
DH: Platoon of Mauer/Morneau/Willingham/Doumit
 
SP: Vance Worley
SP: Scott Diamond*
SP: Kyle Gibson#
SP: Kevin Correia#
SP: Mike Pelfrey#
SP: Nick Blackburn#
 
*= Returning from injury
#= Must win job
 
Oh dear goodness.  Before I did this write up I didn't think the revolving door in the Twins' rotation would be this bad.   Looking at what they have, the only two that are guaranteed spots are Vance Worley and Scott Diamond.  After that, it's anyone's best guess.  If I had to guess, I would say that Gibson and Correia win the 3 and 4 jobs and the 5 spot becomes a platoon of about six guys.
 
Expected Finishes
 
Record: 69-92
Finish: 5th Place (AL Central)
Most Valuable Player: Joe Mauer, 4.8 WAR
 
Lasting Thought:
 
The Twins really aren't that far from being able to compete in the AL Central.  The only team that has established any kind of dominant presence is Detroit, but even those old farts won't be good forever.  The Twins quietly had a top 3-5 off season this year without adding any significant talent to the MLB roster.  They've parted ways with the right individuals and have added strong arms to the mix.  It's going to be frustrating for another year, but the young arms and free agent pitchers that will be be on the market next off season provide some room for a quick turnaround.
 

Cleveland Indians
2012 Record: 68-94
Pythag Record: 64-98
Games Out of First: 20.0
 
Top Performers by WAR:
 
1. Jason Kipnis, 3.7
1. Carlos Santana, 3.7
3. Shin-Soo Choo, 3.1
4. Asdrubal Cabrera, 3.0
5. Michael Brantley, 2.9
 
2012 Recap
 
There is a common theme within 2012 AL Central teams: the pitching, on the whole, was absolutely horrendous.  The Twins and Indians combined for 2 total pitchers that reached 4 WAR, and it's this lack of talent that led both to be bottom 5 pitching staffs.  For the Indians, the pitching wasn't helped by the defense at all, as the team posted a -62 rating in the field.  Things weren't much better on the bases either as the club lost almost 12 runs rounding the bags.  The Indians were, however, acceptable with the bats as they came up #12 overall in wRC+ (tied with five other teams).  The team, as usual, also dealt with a significant number of injuries.  Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner again missed significant chunks of time.  Much like the Twins, a lot of the problems for Cleveland came out of the fact that they couldn't strike anyone out.  They had three pitchers reach more than 90 IP with K/9 rates under 5.  This horrifying number meant lots of balls in play, which the Indians did not deal with well.
 
Off Season Recap
 
It's tough to say who had the best overall off season this winter, but the Indians are definitely a candidate for the top spot.  With Shin-Soo Choo's contract set to expire, the team wanted to add young talent without giving up shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera.  Amazingly, the team was able to pull it off.  In a 3-team trade with Cincinnati and Arizona, the Indians gave up Tony Sipp, Lars Anderson, and Shin-Soo Choo and received Trevor Bauer, Drew Stubbs, Bryan Shaw, and Matt Albers.  They did what many NBA teams do and flipped an expiring contract along with a a couple of minor pieces to receive young talent in return.  The team also played the free agent market, where they took advantage of Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn failing to reach they high-money goals they set going into the off season.  Overall, the team added tons of value to the organization.  They got better at the MLB level and added more depth.
 
Additions:
 
CF Michael Bourn
1B Nick Swisher
DH Mark Reynolds
P Trevor Bauer
RF Drew Stubbs
 
Subtractions:
 
RF Shin-Soo Choo
RP Tony Sipp
DH Travis Hafner
 
2013 Outlook
 
Not going to lie, I'm not a huge fan of the Indians as a breakout candidate.  The team improved, but the amount they improved is being oversold just a little bit.  While adding Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher was huge, let's not forget that Shin-Shoo Choo is a heck of a ball player who provided quite a bit of value to the Indians in 2012.  While Trevor Bauer certainly has high upside as a starter, he might not quite be ready for MLB play, and he certainly didn't seem ready last year to step in and give 180 MLB innings at a quality level.  This leaves the rotation as a serious issue.  Even though the defense has improved by leaps and bounds (honestly, this team is starting three center fielders in the outfield) the pitching staff still will give up plenty of contact.  Offensively, I think their young talent will improve quite a bit.  Santana and Kipnis could easily break out and have big years, and let's not forget that Swisher and Bourn can also provide value with their bats and on the base paths.   Some keys:
 
1. Ubaldo Jimenez- This guy has some serious demons to beat as a pitcher.  His mechanics turned to poop last year and his stuff took a serious hit as a result, but let's not forget that this is a guy who was seriously great as a pitcher for a stretch of four years.  If the new coaching staff can work with him and get him back anywhere close to what he was, this guy would be a HUGE boost to the team's cause.
 
2. Terry Francona- I'm not one for praising managers, but this guy is a gem.  Players love playing for him and he has experience in something that few others do: winning.  He's seen two World Series winning teams in action and is known for his ability to get the most out of young players.  I think he is a great fit for Cleveland and it wouldn't surprise me if he had an impact like Joe Maddon on the Indians.
 
3. Carlos Santana- At some point it all has to come together for this guy. Amazing plate discipline and vision, incredible contact ability, and strong power. HR/FB rate led to a very weak ISO by his standards.  If he turns it around, he will be the cog that drives the Indians offense.
 
Potential Breakout Player
 
Directly above.  Santana has it all on offense, but he needs to see it all come together.  Santana walks in 15% of his plate appearances, which is simply absurd.  He also very rarely strikes out because he keeps his swing and miss rate at 8%.  While his defense is still a major issue, his bat has the potential to be elite.  I think 2013 is the year it all finally comes together and Santana comes into the 5-win (or higher) mold that some expect of him.
 
Potential Bust Player
 
Nick Swisher, 1B
 
I'm a little concerned about him moving out of the outfield to first base.  His bat played well out in right field, but the standards are a lot higher at first base.  I know it is "easier" to play first base, but the position is completely different from the outfield.  Reaction has to be quicker and scooping is a huge part of being valuable.  I have confidence in the fact that he will transition well, but I'm not going to sit here and say it would shock me if he wasn't even a 2 win player in 2013.
 
2013 Starting Nine and Starting Rotation
 
C- Carlos Santana
1B- Nick Swisher
2B- Jason Kipnis
SS- Asdrubal Cabrera
3B- Lonnie Chisenhall
LF- Michael Brantley
CF- Michael Bourn
RF- Drew Stubbs
DH- Mark Reynolds
 
SP- Justin Masterson
SP- Ubaldo Jimenez
SP- Zach McCallister
SP- Trevor Bauer#
SP- Platoon
 
#= Needs to win job
 
Expected Finishes:
 
Record: 81-81
Finish: Nth Plate in AL Central (you can WAIT for the results at the end)
Most Valuable Player: Carlos Santana, 5.5 WAR
 
Lasting Thought
 
Kyle Lohse is still without a home, and don't be surprised if Cleveland comes calling in a couple weeks.  Their first rounder is still protected, and they need an arm for the rotation.  Until they get it, it's impossible to say this team is a serious threat to make the playoffs.  They simply don't have the necessary pitching to make the jump from 64 Pythag wins to the 85+ wins it takes to make the post season in the 2 WC format.  However, this team is young and has been smart with its money.  I think they are still a couple years from being a serious AL threat, but they are definitely on the upswing.