Across the Bay

There has been of a lot of buzz about the pitching staff of the San Francisco Giants, especially since their World Series championship of 2010. And don’t get me wrong, it’s not unwarranted praise. They have one of the best starting pitchers in baseball in Tim Lincecum and back him up with a solid 2-4 of Jonathon Sanchez, Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner. However, across the bay, the Oakland Athletics are building an incredible starting pitching staff as well, just without the fanfare.

The A’s pitching staff is led by hugely underrated staff ace, Brett Anderson. Easily one of the most talented starting pitchers in baseball, Brett Anderson has done nothing but succeed since being called up to the majors in 2009. The 23 year old has a 3.48 career ERA, 1.25 WHIP and an excellent 3.45 K/B, with incredible control. In 2010, as a 22 year old kid, Brett walked only 1.76 batters per 9 innings, a fantastic rate that shows just how talented his man is. So far in 2011, he hasn’t disappointed, posting a 2.29 ERA and a 6.50 K/BB, thanks to a ridiculous BB rate 0.92 BB rate. He simply does not know how to walk batters, which is a very good thing in Oakland where the pitchers’ ballpark and the awesome defense gives the pitcher the advantage on balls put in play. All indications point to Anderson being an excellent pitcher in the major leagues for a long time.

The #2 on Oakland isn’t exactly a scrub either. Trevor Cahill really broke onto the scene in 2010, posting a 2.97 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP and a 56% GB% as a 22 year old in his second year. Not exactly a power pitcher, Trevor struck out only 5.4 batters per 9 innings in 2010. However, that’s probably the only thing he did wrong. With his excellent sinker, Cahill is excellent at inducing ground balls, which is very good when your infield defense is as good as Oakland’s. So far in 2011, Oakland’s Opening Day starter has excelled, just as the rest of their staff has, with a 3.12 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, the expected 54% GB% and a very surprising 9.35 K/9 rate. Some scouts have been saying that the extra K’s are due to Cahill reintroducing his curveball that got him so many minor league K’s, but that he stopped using in the major leagues. If that’s the case, and these K’s stay, Cahill could join Anderson as a dominating ace on the Oakland staff. If not, he’ll still be an extremely solid #2 on a very talented staff.

The #3 on the Oakland staff draws a lot of comparisons to Jonathon Sanchez on the aforementioned Giants’ staff. 25 year old Gio Gonzalez is your prototypical power pitcher; a ton of strikeouts and a ton of walks. The difference is that, for some reason, Gio Gonzalez doesn’t give up a lot of fly balls and therefore not a lot of home runs. His career GB% of 47.7% is excellent for a power pitcher and helps Gio succeed even with his high walk rates. GG had a pretty good year in 2010, with a very strong 3.23 ERA, a great HR/9 of 0.67 and a decent BB rate of 4.13…..well, decent for a high walk pitcher at least. His K/9 dropped pretty significantly from pervious years but, other than that, his 2010 showed great steps in the right direction. If Gio can get his K rate back over 8.00 and maintain his BB rate around 4.00, he should be a very strong pitcher, especially with his ability to limit FB and HR. he fits in very well as the #3 of the staff behind Anderson and Cahill.

The 4th starter on this Oakland staff is the veteran of the group, which is funny because Dallas Braden is only 27 years old. While he maybe doesn’t have the ability that the other starters do, Dallas Braden has played pretty well for Oakland, especially in his last two years. He’s thrown up ERA’s under 4.00 in 2009 and 2010 (3.89 and 3.50) as well as respectable HR rates and GB%’s. Never being a guy who strikes out many batters (5.55 career K/9), Braden was able to counter that in 2010 with an extremely low BB/9 of 2.01, helping his K/BB sit at a very respectable 2.63 mark. His tERA in 2010 was also a well above average 3.74. Braden is not a standout pitcher with top of the rotation stuff, but he is a solid starter with good control and low home run rates. He’s certainly one of the better #4 starting pitchers in the major leagues. Brandon McCarthy is not really a good pitcher, but as the #5 starter he doesn’t really have to be. So far in 2010, he’s done well, following the trend set by most of the rest of the rotation, walking almost no one, and he has a good 3.52 ERA. While I doubt he will continue this level of success, all he has to do is but up average/decent numbers to compliment what is one of the best 1-2-3-4 in baseball with Anderson-Cahill-Gonzalez-Braden to form a really standout starting staff. Not to take anything away from what those Giants have been able to do, but people should really start looking across to the Bay. You might be surprised as to how similar the two rotations are.

Fantasy Blurb: Catching On

Joe Mauer was only hitting .235 with 0 HR and 4 RBI before being put on the DL for bilateral leg weakness. He’s only being put on the 15 day DL, but that could very well turn into a 60 day DL stint as they have no timetable for his return. Not only is this a big blow to Mauer owners who used a high draft pick on him this year, but in the future as Mauer might have to switch to 1B soon. Fortunately, there’re some pretty hot hitters available for the time being.

Nick Hundley – Only owned in 29% in Yahoo leagues, Hundley is hitting .361 with 2 HR, 8 RBI and 7 runs. He’s the hottest hitting Padre and is hitting right in the middle of the order, so there’s plenty of RBI chances. At 27 years old, he could have a breakout. At least grab him while he’s hot.

Ryan Hanigan – I’m a huge fan of Ryan Hanigan; this guy can flat out hit. Owners are skeptical of owning him though (only 7% in Yahoo leagues) because of playing time as Ramon Hernandez is currently the starter. But Hernandez is only hitting .231/.286/.385 while Hanigan is hitting .304/.360/.609. If that trend continues, I expect Hanigan to get the bulk of the playing time. In NL-only, you should already own Hanigan and in mix leagues, keep an eye on him.

Alex Avila – Only owned in 23% of Yahoo leagues, Avila is another catcher off to a hot start. While only hitting .258, he has 3 HR, 5 runs, 8 RBI and stolen base to boot, Avila will get the bulk of the playing time in Detroit with Victor Martinez serving as the primary DH, so he’s a safer choice than Hanigan. Avila could also have 15 HR pop this year. At least own him while he’s hot.

Carlos Ruiz – Owned in 49% of Yahoo leagues, there’s a chance that he’s not available. Recently, he’s been considered an underrated catcher in the shadows of Joe Mauer, Brian McCann and Victor Martinez, and even the newer catchers of Buster Posey and Carlos Santana. Ruiz had a solid 2010 season, hitting .302/.400/.447 with 8 HR and 53 RBI. And he’s off to another great start in 2011, hitting .351 with 2 HR, 8 runs and 8 RBI. He should probably be your first choice if he’s available as he has the track record to keep it going.

Wilson Ramos – Only owned in 3% of Yahoo Leagues, Ramos is hitting .455! with 0 HR, 2 runs, and 2 RBI. Ramos has been a high prospect since 2009 and like Hanigan, is sharing catching duties with Ivan Rodriguez. Pudge is only hitting .136/.174/.182, so Ramos could earn the starting job quicker than Hanigan. While he hasn’t shown much pop in the minors, he could hit 10-12 HR this year while having a high AVG. Grab him now and you could look like a genius at the end of the year.

This might be a situation where you'll have to play the waiver wire all year as the catching position is weak as it is. Carlos Santana (.205/1 HR/5 Runs/6 RBI), Victor Martinez (.200/2 HR/5 Runs/8 RBI) and Matt Wieters (.212/1 HR/4 Runs/4 RBI) are off to pretty lackluster starts, so you might be able to buy low on one of them from panicking owners. I'll leave you with this stat - 5 of Jorge Posada's 7 hits have been HR! Embrace the DH position, Jorge.

Adrian Gonzalez Signs Extension

This is going to be a short one, I promise, guys. After weeks of speculation, the Red Sox, according to CSNNE's Sean McAdam via MLB Trade Rumors, have signed the long-expected deal to extend Adrian Gonzalez. Gonzalez was acquired in December from the Padres for a collection of elite Red Sox prospects, and, while an extension could not be made during the 48-hour window granted by MLB, Boston GM Theo Epstein felt that enough headway had been made in talks to pull the trigger.

The deal (7 years, $154 MM), is believed to have been in place for several weeks, possibly even since those December talks, but Boston was waiting until the season began so that only Gonzalez' 2011 salary ($5.5 MM) would count towards the luxury tax, instead of what would have been $20 MM if the deal had signed before opening day.

Gonzalez is a .288/.400/.530 hitter (Avg/OBP/SLG) over the past two seasons with a 157 OPS+ and a pair of Gold Gloves to his name.

The following is a brief breakdown of Gonzalez' value to the Red Sox:

Adrian Gonzalez is at this point a 6.5 win player per season. He's that good. If we assume he will put up a 6.5 WAR in 2011, and subtract 0.5 WAR each season for decline, here are his values per season for the future.

Year - (WAR)Monetary value of a win = Player value - salary = Red Sox savings
2012 - (6.0)5.25 = $31.5 MM - $22 MM = $10.5 MM
2013 - (5.5)5.51 = $30.3 MM - $22 MM = $8.3 MM
2014 - (5.0)5.69 = $28.5 MM - $22 MM = $6.5 MM
2015 - (4.5)6.08 = $27.4 MM - $22 MM = $5.4 MM
2016 - (4.0)6.30 = $25.2 MM - $22 MM = $3.2 MM
2017 - (3.5)6.60 = $23.1 MM - $22 MM = $1.1 MM
2018 - (3.0)6.93 = $20.8 MM - $22 MM = -$1.2 MM

In total, if Gonzalez stays healthy and maintains a decline normal for players of his caliber, the Red Sox signed a very good deal today.

The Forgotten Ace

Barry Zito is on a pitching staff that has led the league in strikeouts and ERA each of the past two seasons. Barry Zito plays for the defending World Series champions. Barry Zito is making millions upon millions of dollars every year. If you told Barry William Zito all of this when he signed his record-setting seven-year, $126 million contract to go from the Oakland Athletics to their big brothers across the bay, he probably would have been a very happy man. The sad news is that today, Barry William Zito is not a very happy man. After four years and change with the Giants, Zito has become the team’s fifth best starter and would no longer be in the rotation were it not for his monster contract. So the question remains, how did a former Cy Young Award winner go from the height of his craft to not even cracking the postseason roster of a World Series-bound team? What went wrong?

Zito was Oakland’s first-round pick in 1999, and spent only about a year and a half in the minors. In 2001, likely his second-best season to date, Zito went 17-8, posting a 3.49 ERA in his first full season. 2002 was easily Zito’s best season, which saw him go 23-5 with an ERA of 2.75 and he even nabbed the AL Cy Young Award. There were big expectations for Zito in 2003, and while his 14-12 record didn’t quite live up to the hype, he still registered a solid 3.30 ERA and a career-high in innings pitched.

This is where it starts to go downhill. Zito’s 2004 campaign was a foreshadowing of things to come with the Giants. He managed a career-low in wins, innings pitched, WAR, and ERA+, while his ERA, H/9, and HR/9 limped to career-highs. His stats improved slightly in 2005 and 2006, including an All-Star appearance in 2006, but ultimately he was nowhere near the pitcher he was in 2002 and 2003.

Then came the offseason of 2006. Oh, that fateful offseason. The Yankees, Mets, Rangers, and Giants were all interested in signing Zito, but only the Giants and Mets were reportedly willing to pony up the bucks Zito wanted. Of course, Zito wound up signing in San Francisco, a decision that, were it not for a farm system loaded with young arms, would have derailed the entire Giants organization for years to come.

Barry Zito’s first season with San Francisco was expected to be a big one. He was making the transition from AL to NL, remaining in a park heavy on pitching, and was now getting to face the worst division in baseball on a regular basis. Zito then endured a putrid season. He was 11-13 with an ERA of 4.53 and a WAR of 1.5. One may point out that Zito did not get the greatest run support; this is true. However, in 2007 Matt Cain had an ERA a full point lower than Zito’s, yet still went 7-16--- so Zito’s run support could have been much worse. And, of course, an observant fellow will notice that run support does not exactly factor into ERA.

Yet heading into 2008, Giants fans stubbornly stuck by Zito. Instead, Tim Lincecum, in his first full major league season, stole the spotlight, dazzling National League hitters and outdueling aces Johan Santana and Brandon Webb for the Cy Young Award. This could not have been better for Zito, because while fans focused their attention on young superstar, Zito’s 2008 season could not have gone farther in the opposite direction. He managed a record of 10-17, an ERA of 5.15, a negative WAR (-0.6), a K/BB ratio of 1.1, a WHIP of 1.6, a BB/9 of 5.18 and an ERA+ of 86.

Needless to say, by 2009 the Giants were running thin on patience. What ultimately kept Zito in the rotation was the money the Giants were stuffing into his wallet year after year. And, to be honest, he had nowhere to go but up, seeing as he was one of the league’s worst starting pitchers in 2008.

Over the past two seasons, Zito has gone 19-27 with an ERA of 4.10. At this point, the Giants will gladly take a .500 record and an ERA of 4.00 if Zito can give it to them. Expectations have dropped a long way for the man once considered to be in an elite club. Stuck at the short end of a rotation absolutely loaded with young talent, Zito is left to sit back and wonder: what went wrong?