Season Previews, Part Seven: San Diego Padres

San Diego Padres
2011 Record: 71-91 5th in NL West
Pythagorean Record: 79-83
Games out of first: 23

2011 Recap

The Padres went into 2011 with an eye on rebuilding from the ground up.  In the off season prior to 2011, the Padres shipped Adrian Gonzalez up to Boston for RHP Casey Kelly and 1B Anthony Rizzo.  This move was the start of a new journey for the Padres, in a sense.  Ironically, the team finished where they were expected to despite actually playing much better than their record showed.  The team only had a run differential of -18, which is something more common of .500 teams than teams that finish 20 games under.  Offensively, they were led by third baseman Chase Headley, who had a career year.  At 27, many expected Headley to improve as he went into his prime, and the results were great.  However, injuries limited him to only 113 games, which really made his 2.9 oWAR performance sneak under the radar.  The Padres, despite being 3rd in raw ERA, really did not get any great performances out of their starting rotation.  The ERA+ values for the Padres were as follows: 102, 95, 98, 108, and 92.  The Padres didn't get any great performances, but they also didn't have any starters bust, which gave them a consistent rotation.  In fact, with a range so small in the sample given, the Padres were able to expect a certain performance on any given day, which led to great consistency (which is part of why the pythag record was so good).

Top WAR preformers:

1. Nick Hundley: 3.4

2. Mat Latos: 3.2

3. Cameron Maybin: 2.9

4. Chris DeNorfia: 2.4

5. Corey Leubke: 2.4

Offseason Recap:

This off season really was a continuation of what happened in the previous year.  With the change that went on up in Chicago, San Diego lost both Jed Hoyer and Jason McLeod to the Cubs.  Not only did the Padres lose two of their top executives, but they also moved or lost some of their most talented players.  Firstly, Heath Bell left in free agency for Miami on a 3 year/$27 million contract, which the Padres could not afford.  In a couple of more controlled moves, the Padres traded Mat Latos to the Reds for Yonder Alonso, Yasmani Grandal, and Edinson Volquez.  In a separate move, the club traded Anthony Rizzo and Zach Cates for Andrew Cashner and Kyung-Min Na.  Even though moving Rizzo could hurt, the Padres were really able to revamp their farm system with these moves.  It made sense to go through with the youth movement and move a young pitcher like Latos for some young hitters who should give the Padres the offense they have desperately been looking for.

Notable Additions:

Yonder Alonso

Yasmani Grandal

Huston Street

Andrew Cashner

Carlos Quentin

Notable Subtractions

Heath Bell

Mat Latos

Anthony Rizzo

Aaron Harang

Wade LeBlanc

Projected Lineup:

CF- Cameron Maybin 

2B- Orlando Hudson

1B- Yonder Alonso

RF- Carlos Quentin

3B- Chase Headley

LF- Will Venable

C- Nick Hundley

SS- Jason Bartlett

Projected Rotation:

Tim Stauffer

Dustin Moseley

Cory Luebke

Clayton Richard

Edinson Volquez

2012 Outlook

It's not ridiculous to like the Padres for 2012.  No, they are not likely to be contenders, but they should be able to field a rather competitive ball club.  Ironically, the weakest part of the team is going to be the starting pitching staff.  They have a few arms in their prime, but they lack any true top of the rotation starters.  They'll need to rely on consistently average starting pitching and good defense without getting any great performances out of any of their starters.  However, I really like how their offense is shaping up.  They've got a good mix of speed and power, and they also have guys who should keep their strikeout totals rather low.  Alonso and Quentin provide two bats that can provide some really big pop in the middle of the order, but their ability to score runs will depend most on the ability of the one and two hitters to get on base.  
  
Potential Breakout Player:

Yonder Alonso speaks softly and carries a big stick. This guy can rake, and it would not be a surprise to see this guy take the NL West by storm. He's a great breakout candidate, and he's a darkhorse for the NL Rookie of the Year.

Potential Bust Player:

Chris DeNorfia is very likely not repeating last year. He really wasn't that great, and the chances of him repeating his defensive rating from last year are slim. Don't look for him to do much in 2012.


Projections:

Record: 80-82
Finish: 4th in NL West
MVP: Carlos Quentin

Final Word:

I am very likely to be higher on the Padres than most, but I really think they can perform as an average team.  Nobody in the NL West really did much of anything to get better, and I really think the Padres improved on a whole (as odd as that sounds with the guys they lost).  Their pythag record last year was close to that of a .500 team, and I think they can produce a similar pythag to lat year, giving them plenty of opportunity to win 80 games.