Alright, so normally I would analyze major league players and their current and future impact on the game. However, as I try to learn more about the game, I like to branch out and look into some other fun aspects, such as prospects. You'll have to bear with me, as this is my first real attempt at sounding smart when discussing prospects, but I figured this would be fun to see and even more fun to write. Without further ado, here we go:
When looking into prospects, I decided to form a large database with grades, velocities, and projections that are taken from many different sources. Obviously I haven't gotten to actually go see these guys in person, and the video I have is limited so don't take everything I say and run off telling people that it is 100% accurate. One of the things I came across was a series of pitchers that are considered to be very highly rated. What I'll do here is introduce the "teams" and then draw comparisons between the three. At the end, you can decide for yourself which group you'd like to see on your team in the future.
Team One: Atlanta Braves
Julio Teheran, RHP
Age: 21
Current Level: AAA
Might as well introduce the nine pitchers featured in this article with the lead horse. By all accounts, Teheran is a stud who projects straight to the top of a competitive Major League rotation. Teheran is solid in his mechanics with no glaring red flags, which helps him control the ball as he repeats his delivery consistently. His command shows flashes of being plus, and is good enough to consistently get MLB hitters out. He features a 3-pitch arsenal led by a devastating changeup that receives plus-plus grades from scouts. With the ability to command his fastball, the pitch becomes extremely effective when Teheran winds up ahead in the count. He will mix in a curveball that receives consistent average/solid grades, though it can flatten out on him at times.
Grades:
Fastball (92-94 MPH): 50/60
Changeup (80-84 MPH): 70/80
Curve (74-76 MPH): 40/50
Mechanics: 60/60
Control: 60/70
Command: 40/60
Stats: 70
Ceiling: #1 Starting Pitcher
Arodys Vizcaino, RHP
Age: 21
Current Level: AAA
While not on Teheran's level, Vizcaino brings a lot to love as a pitcher. While not on the level of his better in terms of control of command, Vizcaino has a great feel for his pitches and flashes plus control and solid command through consistent mechanics. He also features a 3-pitch arsenal, but his is headlined by an explosive fastball that sits consistently in the mid-90's and can touch the upper 90's when he rears back. His fastball is matched by a devastating curve that serves as a consistent out pitch. He has a solid change that he uses to keep hitters off balance, though it sits well behind his other two pitches and doesn't figure to ever be a plus pitch.
Grades:
Fastball (94-96 MPH): 60/70
Curve (79-82): 60/70
Change (80-82): 40/40
Mechanics: 60/60
Control: 60/60
Command: 30/50
Stats: 65
Ceiling: #3 Starting Pitcher/Reliever
Randall Delgado, RHP
22
Current Level: MLB
While Vizcaino and Delgado are not clones, they are very similar in terms of where scouts grade their pitches and their ceilings. Delgado's effectiveness relies on his ability to command his fastball. When he does, he can shut down a lineup and look like a fringe #2 pitcher. Unlike Vizcaino and Teheran, Delgado lacks a second plus pitch. His curve and changeup are consistently average, and he'll have to rely on control with the pitches in order to make them effective against Major League hitters. Delgado figures to fit right into the middle of the rotation as a powerful innings eater.
Grades:
Fastball (91-93): 60/70
Curve (76-79): 40/50
Change (80-82): 40/40
Mechanics: 60/60
Control: 50/60
Command: 40/50
Stats: 50
Ceiling: #3 Starting Pitcher
Overall Trio Analysis:
It is possible that my grades and projections for the Braves are more critical than other people. The source I found most trustworthy and consistent wasn't very high on Delgado or Vizcaino, even though other sites seemed to like them a lot. I like the way that these three work into the future plans of the Braves. With Tommy Hanson locked into the front of the rotation, it is possible that Julio Teheran can lead the staff as the ace with Hanson at #2, Vizcaino at #3, and Delgado as a very strong #4. If Vizcaino doesn't stick to the rotation, you could find him in the bullpen as a setup man to Craig Kimbrel. The thing I like the most about the Braves' trio is the apparent lack of risk. Everyone, it seems, should end up at least as a fringe average starter with little bust potential in the group.
Team Two: Arizona Diamondbacks
Trevor Bauer, RHP
Age: 21
Current Level: AAA
Bauer jolted his way up draft boards last June and wound up in the desert as a result. A teammate of G. Cole at UCLA, Bauer impresses scouts with his remarkable versatility and knowledge on the mound. He is a quick learner that uses a 5-pitch arsenal when on the mound: fastball, 12-6 curve, slider, splitter, and a changeup that fades away from his pitching hand. Bauer is not a guy who relies on velocity with his fastball as he'll sit consistently in the low-90's. When he spots his fastball, he is extremely hard to beat as every pitch in his arsenal becomes a legitimate strikeout pitch. Bauer doesn't have one pitch that leaves scouts with weak knees, but the sum of the parts allows him to blow scouts away, as every pitch projects as average or better. Bauer has the potential to be a number one, but because of the system he may end up as the #2.
Grades:
Fastball (92-93): 60/60
12-6 Curve (78-80): 60/70
Slider (83-85): 40/40
Splitter (86-88): 40/50
Change (81-83): 50/60
Mechanics: 60/60
Control: 50/60
Command: 30/40
Stats: N/A
Ceiling: #1 Starting Pitcher
Archie Bradley, RHP
Age: 19
Current Level: A
My admiration for Bradley may be unmatched in the minors right now. At 19 years old, I think it is easy to call him one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. He features an explosive mid-90's fastball that scouts drool over, and his curveball is frequently considered a future out pitch. While his changeup lags behind his other two pitches, it projects as an average offering at the Major League level. The thing that gets me most about Bradley is how consistent he is in his delivery. A smooth flow allows him to rip his arm through with ease as he delivers to the plate. His control is not yet sharp, and he definitely doesn't have true command of his pitches yet. However, he's got plenty of time to develop around a fastball that some scouts believe can be a true 80-grade pitch in the future.
Grades:
Fastball (93-95): 70/80
Curve (80-83): 50/60
Change (82-85): 30/40
Mechanics: 70/70
Control: 40/50
Command: 30/40
Stats: N/A
Ceiling: #1 Starting Pitcher
Tyler Skaggs, LHP
Age: 20
Current Level: AA
Skaggs definitely doesn't have the upside of the first two pitchers discussed here, but he is a prized asset because of the low risk that comes with him. He relies on good control, consistent mechanics, and a true 12-6 hammer to get guys out. He won't necessarily be a high strikeout guy, but he can avoid giving up hard contact. He can eat a large number of innings and it is unlikely that you will see him on the DL many times over his career, which makes him a great option in the middle of the rotation.
Fastball (90-92): 40/50
12-6 Curve (76-79): 60/70
Change (79-81): 30/40
Mechanics: 60/60
Control: 50/60
Command: 40/50
Stats: 65
Ceiling: #2/#3 Starting Pitcher
Overall Trio Analysis:
It is very hard to not enjoy what the Diamondbacks have brewing here. Bauer and Bradley have serious ceilings, and both could wind up as top 15-20 pitchers in the game at some point in their careers. Skaggs doesn't have that same flare, but he is a consistent presence who will be a true workhorse. The risk is higher here than with Atlanta, but part of that is due to this trio having much less experience as a group. Overall, I think this is the best 3-headed pitching monster to come through in a while. Also, if you are wondering, I do indeed like Bradley better than Bauer. Call me crazy, but that's just how I am.
Team Three: Seattle Mariners
Taijuan Walker, RHP
Age: 19
Current Level: AA
In terms of pure ceiling, it is impossible not to love Walker. His stuff flashes as straight filth in some of his starts, and when he gets a better feel for his 3-pitch combo he will turn into something special. He throws a mid-90's fastball with 80-grade projectability, according to several scouts. His curve is behind his heater, but it projects as a plus-plus hammer that can make hitters look down-right foolish. His changeup is still a well below-average pitch, but with some work it could end up as an above-average offering. One thing many scouts love about Walker are his consistent mechanics. He repeats his delivery very well and appears to be extremely comfortable on the mound. This leads many to project him for plus-plus control and plus command. It is arguable that Walker has the ceiling of a top 10 pitcher in baseball.
Grades:
Fastball (94-96): 70/80
12-6 Curve (80-82): 50/70
Change (84-86): 30/50
Mechanics: 70/70
Control: 40/70
Command: 30/60
Stats: 60
Ceiling: #1 Starting Pitcher
Danny Hultzen, LHP
Age: 22
Current Level: AA
I was actually once told by a scout that Hultzen was one of the easiest arms to project out of college. This is understandable as he is an extremely polished pitcher that features multiple above-average offerings, consistent mechanics, and an excellent feel for all of his pitches. His best pitch is his changeup, which sits in the low-80's and has excellent deception. He controls his fastball and slider well, which allows him to get ahead in the count and rack up a few strikeouts now and then. With his ability to keep his composure on the mound, he projects as a good #3 with the potential to be a competitive #2. The risk with Hultzen is very low, so it is not surprising that the Mariners took him as high as they did last June.
Grades:
Fastball (90-92): 50/60
Change (80-82): 60/70
Slider (83-86): 40/50
Mechanics: 70/70
Control: 30/50
Command: 30/40
Stats: N/A
Ceiling: #2 SP
James Paxton, LHP
Age: 23
Current Level: AA
Paxton is a very interesting prospect in that he is a bit older than most AA pitchers but has a very high ceiling. The sources I drew from graded his fastball and curve as plus pitches with great plus-plus potential. His change didn't get the same praise, but when I read that a pitcher might have two 80 grade pitches (I initially thought that was generous), I get interested. He doesn't have the same control or command of Walker and Hultzen, which keeps him out of the "true ace" discussion. It is more realistic that Paxton's stuff sits where it currently is and he winds up as a fringe #2 starter with a possible bright future out in the bullpen. Either way, the potential is there for greatness. You never know what you might get to see.
Grades:
Fastball (94-96): 60/80
Curve (78-81): 60/80
Change (80-82): 40/50
Mechanics: 60/60
Control: 30/50
Command: 30/40
Stats: 50
Ceiling: #2/Closer
Overall Trio Analysis:
The Mariners come with a lot of upside, but not quite as much as Arizona's trio. However, I think they are safer than Arizona's trio and have more upside than Atlanta's does. I would not be too mad if someone said they thought the Mariners had the best pitching in the minors (at least at the top), but the Mariners also might not see these guys regularly until late 2013 or early 2014, while Atlanta will likely have all three of their pitchers as regulars by June of next season. The projectability is there and the ceiling is there, but this trio requires the most patience. If they pan out, watch out for a dirty Seattle rotation with these three sitting behind King Felix.
Conclusion:
It is hard to find a lot wrong with the nine pitchers mentioned here. One of the common themes is the consistency in mechanics that you find among these guys. There aren't a lot of red flags flying around, and it's hard to jump to the conclusion that one of them will wind up in the bullpen because of a glaring hole in their approach to pitching. With young pitchers, I believe that one of the major keys is consistency and making sure the individual is comfortable. All of this switching back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen for young pitchers bothers me, and I think any pitcher who projects as a starter should be given the opportunity to start if he wants it. Overall, I would take:
1. Arizona Diamondbacks
2. Seattle Mariners
3. Atlanta Braves
Who would you go with?
No comments:
Post a Comment