As many of you know, the non-waiver trade deadline is one of the busiest times for baseball teams. Clubs, even just a week prior to the deadline, are still unsure if they should truly be buyers or sellers. Even if they've decided what they want to be, the approach to this year's deadline as undoubtedly changed. This article from Vince Genarro, the President of SABR, breaks down the implications of a 2nd Wild Card. Essentially, the article points how while it is easier for a team to make the playoffs, it is much harder for Wild Card teams to win in the post season. This creates a much larger importance on winning one's division. To this point, only one team has really made a significant move in attempting to attack a division crown: the Detroit Tigers. Their move for Anibal Sanchez and Omar Infante was a clear "win now" move, and it works well as an example of teams parting with top prospects to go for the division crown. However, what about teams like Atlanta, Pittsburgh, and Oakland that are more likely to be wild card teams than division winners? Well, by Gerrano's article, the odds are low for a wild card to win in the postseason (especially if that team is the 2nd wild card and has to play on the road). In my mind, this creates quite the dilemma. While these teams should try to improve to make the playoffs (after all, there is a zero percent chance of winning in the postseason if you don't make it), they risk being average next year if they trade for rental players that they might not be able to sign in the off season. On top of it, traded players cannot lead to compensation picks in next year's draft. This makes the situation especially tough for teams like the Athletics. The reason? Oakland is an upstart team with good, young players. However, is their production from guys like Josh Reddick and Tom Milone sustainable? I doubt it, and Billy Beane probably will too. Ultimately, the decision comes down to risking the future for a slim chance to win in the post season and appease the fans. With that in mind, let's look at a few interesting teams as the deadline approaches.
Team One: Milwaukee Brewers (44-51)
Games Back in Division: 11.5
Games Back in Wild Card: 8.0
The Brewers are really at what I consider to be the cutoff for buyers. With a good week prior to the deadline, they could be as few as 5 games back in the WC race. Two months is a lot of time to overcome a few teams while only having to make up 5 games. However, since I'm much more of a realist, I'm calling the Brewers a seller. They have a weak farm system, a bigtime expiring contract in Zack Greinke, and really would love to compete at some other point during Braun's long future tenure with the team. In my opinion, the Brewers have a few players they can look at moving: Zack Greinke, Aramis Ramirez, and Kameron Loe. Now, since Ramirez has 3 years left on his deal and Loe is a reliever, the only real trade piece the Brewers have is Zack Greinke. Normally it would be an obvious decision to trade Greinke here, but there's one obstacle: the Brewers know they have a weak farm system and want to re-sign him. This brings up the obvious question, "Is it worth more to re-sign him or to trade him?" In my mind, the obvious choice is to re-sign him. He and Braun are both 28 years old, and if either wants to compete in Milwaukee, they are very likely going to have to do it while playing with each other. I understand that the Brewers have a dreadful farm, but let's not undermine the value of an ace. Only six pitchers have more than 20 fWAR since 2009, which is an average of just under 6 fWAR per season. Considering the average starter contributes about two wins for a ballclub, these pitchers are nearly three times as valuable as their average counterparts...and there are only six of them in a pool of over 150 starters. If the Brewers can retain Greinke for a price at or near fair value, then they should. Now, what if they *can't* do that? Well, then the options are to trade him or offer him the average salary of the highest 125 players in the league and have him decline, which will lead to compensation picks. In order to decide whether or not this is beneficial, we need to look at the two teams most likely to trade for him: the Texas Rangers and the Atlanta Braves. If the Braves' trade for Dempster goes through, that leaves us with the Rangers. The Rangers can offer 3B Mike Olt, SP Martin Perez, and Leonys Martin, which would probably be plenty for the Brewers. Olt and Martin can contribute to the MLB club very soon, and Martin's upside makes him a great additional piece (for more analysis on these players, ask chimpape). In my opinion, the options for Greinke and the Brewers break down like this:
1) Re-signed (preferably 5 years/$23 per year)
2) Traded to Texas, who has the deepest farm system and the most to win from trading for him
3) Comp picks
Team Two: Pittsburgh Pirates
Games Back in Division: 1.5
Games Back in WC: --
The Pirates are looking to avoid their 20th straight losing season, and it appears that they are in a great position to do so. This makes their situation just a little bit different than other teams, because contention means fans and fans mean increases in revenue. However, the Pirates have an even greater dilemma than what Milwaukee is facing. While the chance to finish above .500 for the first time in 19 years is well within their grasp, they are a young team that has the chance to be very, very good in the future. While they can make the postseason and increase their revenue, they also have to avoid being too aggressive and potentially missing out on the postseason. This is going to sound dumb and cliche in many ways, but this really makes the most sensible player for them to acquire a younger player going into his prime who is under team control for a while. AKA, the only significant player the Pirates can go after is Justin Upton, who is reportedly off of the trade market. While Upton would have been a perfect fit for Pittsburgh, the inability to get him could be a blessing in disguise. They will hold onto top prospects Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, and Starling Marte and have them under team control for a long time. If I were Neil Huntington, my strategy would be to trade lesser prospects for role players and depth. This improves the roster while giving up few prospects. The chances of making the postseason (bigger for the Pirates than just about any other club) are increased and the long-term future is not put at risk. As I am typing this, it is being reported that they are close to landing Wandy Rodriguez. This would be an addition that matches the suggested strategy perfectly. The Pirates should remain quiet at the deadline and keep their young players within the organization. It's not worth giving them up to make the post season and be eliminated early.
Team Three: Tampa Bay Rays
Games Back in Division: 9
Games Back in WC: 2.5
The Rays are an interesting team because they are rumored to be contemplating trading away SP James Shields. For a team that is so close to the post season, they are a perfect example of why this trade deadline is so screwy. The AL WC race is so tight and ridiculous that the Rays really have no idea whether they are solid contenders. Even if they did win the WC, can they consider themselves a good candidate to win a play-in game and then beat Texas or New York? Probably not, considering that first WC team is currently Los Angeles. From a financial standpoint, it makes much more sense for Tampa Bay to trade Shields than to keep him (the key point I haven't mentioned yet is that Shields is a free agent after the season and Tampa doesn't have a relative prayer at signing him). What makes this even more interesting is that the trade status of ace pitchers Zack Greinke and Cole Hamels is unknown. Because of that, it's possible that Shields could be either the best pitcher on the market or the third best pitcher on the market. This could definitely change his perceived value as next Tuesday's deadline approaches. The Rays are going to be sellers (they could be neutral, but I think that would be wasted opportunity). Under the old system, I don't think there's a chance they would be sellers, considering they would be only 3 games out of the WC and getting into the playoffs means a one-in-eight chance of winning the World Series. That's what makes the Rays interesting, and it is why I chose to briefly mention them.
Team Four: Oakland Athletics
Games Back in Division: 6
Games Back in WC: --
The Athletics are a combination of everyone listed above. They could really be helped by making the postseason (pads the resume for a stadium deal/relocation effort), they have good young players that they really shouldn't move, and they don't really have the finances to sign someone long term. Therefore, they need someone who can come at a reasonable price, has a potential high ceiling, and can be under contract for a while. AKA, they need to target Hanley Ramirez, which is exactly what they are doing. Is there a better place to put a guy with character issues than Oakland? I don't think so. Pressure isn't high, stays out of the eye of the national media, and he'll be guaranteed the starting shortstop spot unless Beane tells him he can't have it (due to no competition at the position). The only hangup here could be that Hanley's contract is big for someone who is producing as little as he is (nearly 16 million each of the next two years and about 7 million left on his contract for this year). That creates a spike in Oakland's payroll. If they could get Miami to eat a portion of the contract and avoid parting with their absolute best prospects, I think this is a move they really need to make. I also think it is a very plausible scenario, seeing as Miami reportedly considered moving Hanley in the off season as he didn't want to play third base. However, if that can't be done, the A's should just try to ride their hot streak/luck and hope to steal away the 2nd Wild Card (or win the first one). They are very likely not going to win the division ahead of Texas and LA, and the chances of winning from a WC spot are less than they have been in previous post seasons. Even though they could really benefit from the revenue, I don't think the A's are in a position to be major players at the deadline.
So there are a few teams to keep an eye on over the next week. All four represent different scenarios, and all will likely have very different approaches to the deadline. To sum up in a few points:
1) Winning the World Series from a WC spot this year is an incredible longshot. The only team to have real success out of a play-in experience was Colorado in 2007, but that has to be taken with a grain of salt since they were on what was arguably the greatest late-season run in history.
2) Rental players can't bring compensation, so trading for players that aren't under contract is a mistake for young teams who could become serious contenders by moving their young prospects.
3) Teams that could compete and win the WC spots won't inherently be buyers. They have to more strongly consider their moves at the deadline this year. Making a move for a player and being unable to bring him back could very well lead to them being average the next year with fewer prospects to play with. Even though that part hasn't changed from the past, there is less reward for winning a WC spot, so this could potentially be a turnoff. How we determine buyers and sellers will be much more complex than it has been in the past.
P.S.- Pirates traded Robbie Grossman for Wandy Rodriguez. Perfect move for a team like them at the deadline.
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