I think most can agree that the debate over AL MVP is becoming tiresome, even though it has just begun. Even though there are more than two names who should appear in this debate, there are only two names involved in popular discussion: in the corner of traditionalism stands Miguel Cabrera, and in the corner of sabermetrics and analysis stands Mike Trout. One is well on his way to being a first-ballot hall of famer, and the other is an upstart rookie. One drives in runs, and the other creates and prevents them. However, this argument is far from understood. Nobody is approaching this thing the right way. On one hand, sabermetrics are fantastic and completely misunderstood, and on the other hand you can't run into great traditional stats without having at least some kind of talent in your game. This also isn't just a debate about who has been the better player; this is a debate about who has been the Most Valuable Player in the American League. With that, I am going to break this down as much as I can. I'll break it down traditionally, sabermetrically, and I'll even talk a bit about intangibles. Are you ready? No? Well I am, so here we go (p.s. since I gave this article the title I did, I'm going to break it into Acts..you know, like a play...because I'm clever like that!)
Act I: A Beast Named Miggy
Miguel Cabrera has had a decorated career, and he is going to go down as one of the best right-handed hitters this game has seen. Of all of the things Miggy has always done well, he's been best at hitting home runs and driving in runs. How good, you ask? He's averaged 34 homers and 117 RBI since 2004. It's not like those numbers have been inconsistent, either. He's reached the 30 homer plateau in eight of the past nine seasons and has reached the 100 RBI plateau for nine consecutive seasons between Florida (now Miami) and Detroit. However, let's not leave out one little detail: it's not like he's just a "pure power hitter" either as he has a .321 BA (including leading the league last year and this year to this point) and .399 OBP over that span. That high OBP has helped him average scoring 102 runs per year, which really just caps off the fact that the guy is a beast for traditionalists. Really, if you went purely by traditional statistics, it would be very hard to find a hitter or player better than Miguel Cabrera (and heck, even if you go by sabermetrics, it's still really hard to do). This is a beast that is going to be hard to tame.
Act II: A Fish Named Trout
In the month of May after an opening month of disappointment, the Angels called up Baseball America's #2 prospect. A speedster with pop from Jersey, Trout slowly began to earn playing time as he snatched plate appearances and defensive innings from the likes of Vernon Wells, Peter Bourjos, and others. For being up for 5 months of the season, Trout has had a fantastic traditional season. The most impressive part of it? He's scored 124 runs in 131 games. You know what that is over a full 162-game season? 153 runs (and change). A fun fact: Rickey Henderson, the greatest leadoff hitter ever to play the game, had a season high of 146 runs. To continue a pretty fair comparison from a traditional standpoint, let's consider some other numbers. How about home runs? In 131 games, Trout has 28. In Rickey's best season, he hit 28 in 136 games (he also hit 28 in 153 games in 1986). Now, Trout isn't the base-stealer that Rickey was and he won't walk nearly as much, but how about some RBI? Trout has 78. Rickey's highest was 74 in 153 games. The point here is this: when someone says Trout is the MVP because of sabermetrics, keep it in the back of your mind that he might just be the MVP by traditional statistics, too. He's having what could arguably be the best season from a leadoff hitter ever, and that has to be worth something in the eyes of traditionalists.
Act III: The Magic Potion
Talking about traditional stats is fun and all, but there's one thing about them that's always bothered me: they never get down to the substance of what a player truly is. Baseball is about more than your batting average, your homers, and the number of times you knock a run in. If you go sheerly by time spent on the field, baseball players spend most of their time playing defense, and they don't go run around the bases for nothing. This is where a "magic potion" of sorts reveals the players for what they truly are. If you are into fairy tale references, this magic potion represents the schism between the traditional thinkers and so-called stat geeks. Traditionalists think the potion is evil or will harm them in some way. So-called stat geeks believe the potion to be all-powerful because of its magic properties. In reality, all the magic potion is meant to do is provide a new angle by which this story can be told. We consider things like walk percentage, ballpark adjustments, and even the positions players play. When we give players the magic potion, they sometimes come out differently than how we originally thought of them, and sometimes they don't come out any differently at all. Let's take a look at this debate after each player drinks a bit of this magic potion.
Act IV: Turning a Beast Into A Man and a Fish Into a Superhuman
It's time to put Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout under the microscope of analysis through sabermetrics. Throughout this entire debate, traditionalists have complained about stat geeks treating WAR as the be-all end-all in this debate, and stat geeks have called out traditionalists for being too simple-minded in their approach to the situation. I claim that both sides are wrong in their approaches, and not enough is being done to understand each player. Let's do this one at a time:
Miguel Cabrera-
667 PA/ .329 BA/ .394 OBP/ .280 ISO/ 167 wRC+/ 9.7% BB/ 14.1% K/ -9.4 Fld/ -2.9 BsR/ 6.8 fWAR
1.17 GB/FB ratio/ 20.8% LD
I know this is a lot of information to digest, but bear with me. Firstly we need to handle the elephant in the room: WAR. As a statistic, WAR's basic idea is to consider every part of a player's game and mold it together to form a claim on total value. This claim assumes players will see the same environments and attempts to completely isolate the player's performance (since every player is going to face different situations, this is a fair thing to do). WAR assumes that every play contributes positive or negative value based on a given run environment. With WAR, a win is equal to roughly 10 runs created, and a run is created through individual offensive, defensive, and base running accomplishments. In a more simple way, WAR is a reference point. You start your discussion here and end it somewhere else.
Miguel Cabrera's numbers are very impressive. He's played a lot (PA- plate appearances), he's hit for the highest average in the AL, he's great at getting on base, and he's got phenomenal power (ISO- isolated slugging, which represents slugging percentage minus singles). His 167 wRC+ (weighted runs created adjusted for his ballpark) is good for second best in the league. He doesn't strike out much, and he walks at a good rate (although not as good of a rate as in previous seasons). Offensively, Cabrera is a juggernaut whether you use traditional metrics or advanced metrics. Where Cabrera becomes less scary is in his fielding and base running. He's been a terrible fielder by defensive metrics, and I personally consider him one of the poorest fielding third baseman in the league. He's got capable hands and a strong throwing arm, but he's slow and lacks the agility and reaction time to field the position. Cabrera also gets hurt on the bases, where his contribution of a loss of 3 runs on the bases takes him from being a 7.1 fWAR player to a 6.8 fWAR player. When you throw it all together, the offensive prowess is hurt a lot by the fact that he doesn't field well and doesn't run the bases (theoretically, he would score more runs if he was a better baserunner).
Mike Trout-
600 PA/ .324 BA/ .395 OBP/ .230 ISO/ 172 wRC+/ 10.2% BB/ 21.5% K/ 10.0 Fld/ 6.1 BsR/ 9.5 fWAR
1.34 GB/FB ratio/ 23.1% LD
Trout's performance is enhanced phenomenally when you break everything down. However, the reasons for which they are enhanced are entirely misunderstood. Some people have suggested that Trout receives unfair benefit for the replacement level at the position he plays. However, Trout loses -0.2 runs from his position and Cabrera gains 1.4 runs. The difference here is almost completely cancelled out by the fact that replacement contribution at third base is 22 runs while at center field (in Trout's playing time) the contribution is 20 runs. 1.6 runs by positional adjustment in favor of Cabrera and 2.2 for replacement level in favor of Trout. That's 0.6 runs in favor of Trout, which is too close to call, so we have to call positional adjustments a tie. Therefore, Trout's numbers are coming strictly from offensive, defensive, and base running contributions when they are adjusted for ballpark. When we look at Trout's numbers, we find great rates everywhere. He has the 2nd highest average in the AL (Mauer went 0-4 and is down a point to him now), he is masterful at getting on base (with a great walk rate), he's a marvelous fielder, and he's a fantastic base runner. He strikes out a bit, but not enough to make any other part of his game look bad. He hits tons of line drives and the ground ball to fly ball ratio he has posted actually might be a benefit to his game due to his speed.. Trout really has done everything very well this year.
Act V: Beast vs. Fish
Now that we've seen traditional and sabermetric approaches to each player, it's time to start the final battle. This won't determine our MVP, but it will determine who is the better player. First, let's remember that position is out the window as runs from positional and replacement adjustments were a wash. Rather than go to fWAR for the comparison, we are going to ditch it for the purpose of argument. Here we go:
Category One: Playing Time
Cabrera has gathered 667 plate appearances to Trout's 600. He's played in more games and has more innings on defense, so his value has more time to accumulate. Advantage goes to Cabrera here.
Category Two: Batting Average
Cabrera's .329 rate versus Trout's .324 rate favors Cabrera, and it looks more impressive given category one favors Cabrera. As far as park adjustments go for this statistic, Angels stadium is harder to hit in than Comerica, but batting average doesn't seem to be impacted too terrible by park in *most* situations. I'll give this one to Cabrera, but I would accept arguments for Trout.
Category Three: On-Base Skills
Trout holds the raw edge here, with a .395 clip to Cabrera's .394. Playing time makes Cabrera's rate harder to maintain, but park slightly favors Trout. Since it's so close to begin with, we'll call this one a tie.
Category Four: Power
Isolated slugging takes the singles out of batting average, and Cabrera's .280 rate versus Trout's .230 rate is impressive. Even though Comerica is easier to hit in than Angels Stadium, Cabrera holds an advantage here too large to be neutralized by park. Cabrera wins.
Category Five: wRC+
Here's where we start to get a great representation of what is going on. On a basic level, wRC+ does three things. First, it gives offensive events weights that are different from those given in slugging percentage (singles are worth about .75 on the scale while strikeouts carry negative value). This makes it so extra weight isn't given to home runs compared to walks and singles. Second, it calculates the number of runs created through each offensive accomplishment. Lastly, it adjusts the results for the league average and the park environment the player is forced to play in. A five percent difference (Trout's 172 to Cabrera's 167) is enough of a difference to be notable, and it suggests that Trout has been the better overall offensive player. The winner here is Trout.
Category Six: Strikeouts and Walks
Considering how little weight strikeouts are granted on the run-production scale, we are going to call this one a tie. Not worth arguing over, really.
Category Seven: Fielding
This is where the bulk of the difference between the two players occurs. Trout is granted over 10 runs created on defense between his work in center and left. Cabrera loses almost 10 runs. The difference between Trout and Cabrera is about 20 runs, or two wins in value. Even if you don't like defensive metrics, scouts will tell you the difference isn't close. Clear and massive advantage to Trout.
Category Eight: Baserunning
The difference is 10 runs (one win) in favor of Trout. Stealing as many bases as Trout does at the clip he does it at will contribute a ton of value. Once again, Trout wins by a landslide.
Category Nine: Overall Value
9.5 to 6.7. The difference is 2.8 runs, or almost identical to the difference in base running added to the difference in defense. The offense is practically the same, and the rest goes to Trout. Advantage to Trout.
Act VI: Considering the Little Things
I wrote quite a while ago about the impact of so-called intangibles on the game of baseball (read about it here:http://mlbboards.blogspot.com/2012/01/intangibles-not-so-intangible-impact.html#comment-form). For those who want the short version of the article: any contribution given by hard work, hustle, and competitive nature is going to show up in one's statistical performance. In my opinion, true intangibles have to be...well...intangible. Things like leadership have an impact on other players, but there isn't a way to figure that in. Debates can be had on just how much each contributes to their team, but they will end up going in circles ("Trout is a rookie" vs. "Cabrera is an established veteran presence" and "Trout is a spark plug" vs. "Cabrera has had legal issues" are some examples). All in all, I am a big believer that the vast majority of a player's value is going to come out of his statistical performance. While he definitely may contribute positive or negative value through true intangibles, I don't think the value is anything more than a few runs on average.
Act VII: The Forest Where the Story Takes Place
Consider for a moment the pennant chase. The Tigers are tied for first, and the Angels are trailing in the wild card hunt. Both are playoff teams that have very similar records. Some will argue that Cabrera's presence on a playoff team gives him added value over Trout. But really, aren't playoff spots given in a very arbitrary fashion? Winning more games than a particular group of teams is great, but what if the quality of those teams isn't equal? The Angels have three more wins than the Tigers, but are in third place in their own division. The quality of the AL West vs. the AL Central really isn't arguable. As a division, the AL West has a +236 run differential whereas the AL Central sits at -239. This 475 run advantage for the AL West is a daunting figure. In fact, it is truly staggering. Even though the AL West is much better than the AL Central (for reasons including much more than run differential), the Angels have a 31 run advantage in run differential. They've scored more runs and have allowed virtually the same number of runs. So really, the Angels are competing in a far harder environment and have come out better than the Tigers. So really, how is Cabrera's performance more valuable than Trout's? Switch the Tigers and Angels in their divisions and you wind up with the Angels comfortably in the playoffs and the Tigers sitting at home in October without a chance of getting in. And either way, is 10 wins on a 90 win team worth more than 10 wins on a 50 win team? Is a win in April worth more than a win in September? In my opinion, the answer is no. A win is a win is a win, and the team context around the player shouldn't change that.
Act VIII: The Diamond Ring
One of the biggest arguments for Miguel Cabrera is that he is a triple crown candidate. If he were to win the award (leading a league in BA, HR, and RBI) he would be the first player since 1967 to do so. However, before we give Cabrera an award for arbitrary accomplishments (very impressive arbitrary accomplishments), let's consider the context of the award. Ted Williams won the triple crown in 1942 and 1947. He won the MVP award twice, and neither time occurred in a triple crown season. In fact, four different players have won the triple crown without being granted an MVP in the season they did so. In the past, the triple crown hasn't been a game-ender in terms of naming an MVP, and I don't believe it should suddenly become one. Something not having occurred in a long time doesn't make it more impressive in the context of an individual season, and that something being winning three arbitrary statistical categories makes it less relevant in my eyes.
Act IX: The Final Chapter
Throughout this article, we've hammered out everything. We've considered traditional stats, sabermetrics, intangibles, and team context. In fact, we've even considered special accomplishments like the triple crown. Rather than make my own call in this debate, I will let the information provided sit with my readers. All I can do is hope that I have provided the right information with the right context. If I have done so, the choice should be clear. If I haven't done so, then there will still be a debate about who should win AL MVP. Well kids, this is the end of our little story: The Tale of Miggy and the Fish.
Wednesday, September 26, 2012
Saturday, September 8, 2012
Phenoms and Age
For unto everyone that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance.
But from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath.
This morning I read Tom Verducci's underwhelming article on the Angel's 20-year-old superstar Mike Trout and immediately began thinking about his future. He's good now. Check. He's going to presumably be great in the future. Check. But I got thinking about something else:
How will he age?
I'm sure Trout will put up tons of production in his career; hell, he's 20% of the way to my HoF benchmark of 50 WAR. I wondered, though, about what constitutes a 'phenom' and what repercussions this might have on a player's physical aging process.
I thought about this quite a bit during Harper-mania in the last few years. This isn't a fantasy novel. Harper is not a special player because of some innate, magical gift. He was so ahead of his age curve because he developed early. He was a full-grown man at 15 or 16 years of age.
In the fantastic book Outliers, Malcolm Gladwell talks about hockey players, and one point he makes is that NHL players are more likely to be born in the first few months of the year. When these players were children, they were ahead of their peers (if only by weeks or months) physically, which made them (on average, and by a small amount) bigger and stronger and better. They therefore got more playing time and subsequently more development.
Early physical development is everything. It's what allows those hockey players to be better, and more importantly, it's what allows men like Harper and Trout to dominate their age peers and compete with their age superiors, and makes them what we now refer to as 'phenoms.'
But here is my thought process: If these guys develop faster, does this mean that they will age faster as well?
So, I took the good old Tango age curve and went to Fangraphs to identify 38 players who had accumulated 5+ WAR by age 21, players that clearly showed prodigious ability at an early age. Here's what I found.
The normal age curve has players peaking around age 24-28, with a value progression that looks like this (1.00 is peak value and all others are the portion of that peak value):
20 - 0.71
21 - 0.84
22 - 0.89
23 - 0.95
24 - 0.97
25 - 0.99
26 - 1.00
27 - 1.00
28 - 0.97
29 - 0.95
30 - 0.93
31 - 0.90
32 - 0.88
33 - 0.84
34 - 0.79
35 - 0.74
36 - 0.69
37 - 0.64
38 - 0.57
39 - 0.52
What you see here is a relatively quick hop to their peak in their early-mid-20s, a sustained prime until about age 29, then a gradual decline which starts to really drop off in the early-mid-30s.
My thinking was that if 'phenoms' begin their development earlier than everybody else, maybe the processes that constitute a physical decline (erosion of physical structure, abilities, reflexes) would begin earlier, as they had, in essence, been an adult for longer than their peers. Here is the age progression I got:
20 - 0.65
21 - 0.86
22 - 0.91
23 - 0.89
24 - 0.98
25 - 0.95
26 - 1.00
27 - 0.93
28 - 0.84
29 - 0.82
30 - 0.67
31 - 0.75
32 - 0.67
33 - 0.61
34 - 0.42
35 - 0.47
36 - 0.35
37 - 0.40
38 - 0.46
39 - 0.30
40 - 0.18
Of course, the data jumps around a little bit due to the sample size, but the trend is pretty clear. These phenoms peak around the same age as normal players - age 24-26. However, there is a nearly immediate decline. The change from age 26 to age 27 is noticeable and and they are in clear decline by age 30. By age 34 these players were a shadow of themselves, producing less than half the value that they once did.
These 39 phenoms began their decline much earlier than the norm, and it was significantly more steep.
This is not to say that they were all washed up by age 32. Remember that these were largely legends of the game; Ted Williams, Mickey Mantle, and Hank Aaron were all in this data set. The average annual WAR did not drop below average (2.0) until age 39. These guys played outstanding baseball late into their careers, but that is not the point. Their personal declines occurred very differently than the norm. Regard:
This exercise reminds me of a couple of immediate case studies: The last two phenoms of our current generation: Ken Griffey, Jr and Alex Rodriguez, both of whom were included in the aforementioned data set. Both were in the majors as teenagers, both All-Stars at 20, both MVPs by 27, and both began to see their bodies break down in different degrees shortly after their 30th birthday. These are two guys out of tens of thousands of MLB players, and we can't rule out external factors, but still, it bears thinking about.
Now, because of the fact that phenoms represent generational talents, and therefore usually come to be world-class players, the resonance of this information is somewhat diminished. The best player in the world has regressed to become top-5? Oh no. Take, for instance, the recent few editions of Albert Pujols. Sure, he's not what he was in 2009, but he's still an exceptional player, and as a result there isn't as much concern about him.
One area where this makes me think is in the doling out of super-contracts, like the ones that A-Rod signed, or the ones that Harper and Trout will sign. Teams should be aware (and likely are) that just because they are signing the league's best player at 27, an age where most players are half a decade from seeing serious declines kick in, that guy might not follow the usual rules. Phenoms are not 'most players.'
So is Mike Trout a great player? Yes. The best player in the sport? He might very well be. And should he have a great career and maybe end up in the Hall of Fame or even go down in Mays/Mantle status, or even higher than that? Yes, yes. But, if, at an age that he has no business doing so, Mike Trout, or Bryce Harper, or Manny Machado stops playing like a deity and begins to traverse the far side of that mountain of talent, don't say I didn't warn you.
This morning I read Tom Verducci's underwhelming article on the Angel's 20-year-old superstar Mike Trout and immediately began thinking about his future. He's good now. Check. He's going to presumably be great in the future. Check. But I got thinking about something else:
How will he age?
I'm sure Trout will put up tons of production in his career; hell, he's 20% of the way to my HoF benchmark of 50 WAR. I wondered, though, about what constitutes a 'phenom' and what repercussions this might have on a player's physical aging process.
I thought about this quite a bit during Harper-mania in the last few years. This isn't a fantasy novel. Harper is not a special player because of some innate, magical gift. He was so ahead of his age curve because he developed early. He was a full-grown man at 15 or 16 years of age.
In the fantastic book Outliers, Malcolm Gladwell talks about hockey players, and one point he makes is that NHL players are more likely to be born in the first few months of the year. When these players were children, they were ahead of their peers (if only by weeks or months) physically, which made them (on average, and by a small amount) bigger and stronger and better. They therefore got more playing time and subsequently more development.
Early physical development is everything. It's what allows those hockey players to be better, and more importantly, it's what allows men like Harper and Trout to dominate their age peers and compete with their age superiors, and makes them what we now refer to as 'phenoms.'
But here is my thought process: If these guys develop faster, does this mean that they will age faster as well?
So, I took the good old Tango age curve and went to Fangraphs to identify 38 players who had accumulated 5+ WAR by age 21, players that clearly showed prodigious ability at an early age. Here's what I found.
The normal age curve has players peaking around age 24-28, with a value progression that looks like this (1.00 is peak value and all others are the portion of that peak value):
20 - 0.71
21 - 0.84
22 - 0.89
23 - 0.95
24 - 0.97
25 - 0.9926 - 1.00
27 - 1.00
28 - 0.97
29 - 0.95
30 - 0.93
31 - 0.90
32 - 0.88
33 - 0.84
34 - 0.79
35 - 0.74
36 - 0.69
37 - 0.64
38 - 0.57
39 - 0.52
What you see here is a relatively quick hop to their peak in their early-mid-20s, a sustained prime until about age 29, then a gradual decline which starts to really drop off in the early-mid-30s.
My thinking was that if 'phenoms' begin their development earlier than everybody else, maybe the processes that constitute a physical decline (erosion of physical structure, abilities, reflexes) would begin earlier, as they had, in essence, been an adult for longer than their peers. Here is the age progression I got:
20 - 0.65
21 - 0.86
22 - 0.91
23 - 0.8924 - 0.98
25 - 0.95
26 - 1.00
27 - 0.93
28 - 0.84
29 - 0.82
30 - 0.67
31 - 0.75
32 - 0.67
33 - 0.61
34 - 0.42
35 - 0.47
36 - 0.35
37 - 0.40
38 - 0.46
39 - 0.30
40 - 0.18
Of course, the data jumps around a little bit due to the sample size, but the trend is pretty clear. These phenoms peak around the same age as normal players - age 24-26. However, there is a nearly immediate decline. The change from age 26 to age 27 is noticeable and and they are in clear decline by age 30. By age 34 these players were a shadow of themselves, producing less than half the value that they once did.
These 39 phenoms began their decline much earlier than the norm, and it was significantly more steep.
This is not to say that they were all washed up by age 32. Remember that these were largely legends of the game; Ted Williams, Mickey Mantle, and Hank Aaron were all in this data set. The average annual WAR did not drop below average (2.0) until age 39. These guys played outstanding baseball late into their careers, but that is not the point. Their personal declines occurred very differently than the norm. Regard:
This exercise reminds me of a couple of immediate case studies: The last two phenoms of our current generation: Ken Griffey, Jr and Alex Rodriguez, both of whom were included in the aforementioned data set. Both were in the majors as teenagers, both All-Stars at 20, both MVPs by 27, and both began to see their bodies break down in different degrees shortly after their 30th birthday. These are two guys out of tens of thousands of MLB players, and we can't rule out external factors, but still, it bears thinking about.
Now, because of the fact that phenoms represent generational talents, and therefore usually come to be world-class players, the resonance of this information is somewhat diminished. The best player in the world has regressed to become top-5? Oh no. Take, for instance, the recent few editions of Albert Pujols. Sure, he's not what he was in 2009, but he's still an exceptional player, and as a result there isn't as much concern about him.
One area where this makes me think is in the doling out of super-contracts, like the ones that A-Rod signed, or the ones that Harper and Trout will sign. Teams should be aware (and likely are) that just because they are signing the league's best player at 27, an age where most players are half a decade from seeing serious declines kick in, that guy might not follow the usual rules. Phenoms are not 'most players.'
So is Mike Trout a great player? Yes. The best player in the sport? He might very well be. And should he have a great career and maybe end up in the Hall of Fame or even go down in Mays/Mantle status, or even higher than that? Yes, yes. But, if, at an age that he has no business doing so, Mike Trout, or Bryce Harper, or Manny Machado stops playing like a deity and begins to traverse the far side of that mountain of talent, don't say I didn't warn you.
Sunday, September 2, 2012
Unappreciated: 25 of the Most Undervalued Players in MLB
In all of the discussion that occurs in baseball, one of the things that often comes up the most is how certain players are not valued as much as they should be. When this happens, individuals often cite different reasons for why their players are undervalued. Sometimes they believe it's the media that is doing it, sometimes it's the fans, sometimes it's the team that the player plays on, sometimes it's the league, and sometimes it can even be the player and his own agent that undervalue a certain player. The following blog article is about some of these undervalued players and why they are not as appreciated as they should be. Now, to be clear, there is no way I am going to try to define a strict set of parameters a player must meet to be considered undervalued. I considered things such as salary relative to value, fan perception (particularly on the message board I am a member of), and apparent perception of players and executives in the league. Players are given grades in each category based on how much attention they are given (high grade means lots of attention, and low grade means no attention was given. In the case of contracts, the Dollar/WAR ratio is what the grade is based on and high grades are given to team-friendly contracts). Without further ado, let's get to 25 of the most undervalued players in MLB.
25) Rajai Davis, OF, Toronto Blue Jays
Our list begins in an unlikely place through an unlikely player. If you agreed with the previous sentence or were surprised to see Davis' name, then that is a good sign. Davis is the only player on this list who has had a full season below replacement level in the last two years. How, exactly, can a player like that be undervalued? Well, my reasoning for it is Davis' contract. Between 2010 and 2012, Davis has produced a total of 2.0 fWAR (the fangraphs version of the ultimate value metric). Using the free agent model I've used in the past, a player of Davis' quality as a one-win player is about 4.25 million dollars. In 2012, Davis is only making 2.75 million dollars, and his team option for 2013 calls for only 3 million dollars. Even though his value suggests he should be a fourth outfielder at best, his contract says that he is undervalued. Davis has the ability to put up a win of value in under 400 PA, and his ability to play all outfield positions means it's easy to find a spot for him on the roster. If the Blue Jays don't exercise Davis' team option, then Davis becomes one of the best available steals on the free agent market.
Fan perception: F
Media recognition: F
Board perception: C
Contract Value: B
24) Torii Hunter, RF, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Hunter is probably the individual on this list whose presence is hardest to explain. In 2012, Hunter is making 18 million dollars as a 3.2 fWAR player with a high BABIP (meaning he is probably closer to the 2.5 wins he was worth in 2011). The reason Hunter is on this list is that I have a gut feeling that his current contract is going to make people's perception of him as a player go down. Hunter's place on this list is based in projection rather than current status. I don't expect Hunter to get much more than 3 years/$20 million on the free agent market, and I feel like that is a steal for the team that signs him. Hunter can put up a total of 6 wins over the next 3 seasons, and that makes him worth $25.5 million. The Angels likely won't bring him back, and I am not sold that any of the 30 teams will give him even the 3 year/$20 million dollar contract I mentioned.
Fan perception: D
Media recognition: C
Board perception: F
Contract Value: F
23) Corey Hart, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers
Hart was not difficult to place on this list. He is playing above his contract and he isn't given much recognition by the media or the board. The hard part about ranking Hart is that he's tough to project. First off, he's seemingly moved to first base on a full-time basis. This makes the 4.2 fWAR he put up last year a false representation of his future value, and 2012 involves too much split time to really be used. I think it is fair to say that Hart can be a 2.5 win first baseman, which still makes his expected 10 million dollar salary in 2013 a relative steal. If Hart's defense at first can improve with more experience, then he has a shot to put up 3+ wins at the position.
Fan perception: D
Media recognition: F
Board perception: F
Contract Value: C+
22) Matt Belisle, RP, Colorado Rockies
Relief pitchers as a whole are extremely hard to gauge in terms of value. Some of them are extremely overvalued, but some of them are severely undervalued. Belisle is one of the guys who needs to get more credit than he has been given. Over the past two years, Belisle has put up roughly 3.0 fWAR and is only being paid in the 4 million dollar range in 2012 and 2013. For argument's sake, I'll say that a reliever of Belisle's caliber would be worth just under $7 million a year. However, since steady relievers are hard to find, it could be argued that Belisle is worth even more. Amazingly, it doesn't appear that Belisle was a hot item at the trade deadline, and I haven't seen much about him being a moveable piece this offseason. For a cost-controlled reliever who has been steady as of late, I would imagine that a rebuilding team like Colorado would want to ship Belisle out this winter.
Fan perception: F
Media recognition: F
Board perception: F
Contract Value: B
21) Shin-Soo Choo, RF, Cleveland Indians
Choo was probably the league's single most undervalued player heading into the 2011 season, but a terrible season resulting from mental challenges after a DUI and a strikingly low BABIP rate completely changed that. In 2012, Choo has bounced back as one of the better right fielders in baseball. As far as contract goes, Choo is going to be a third-year arbitration eligible player. This means that Choo is on pace for his largest pre-free agency pay day. However, rather than a $12 million+ figure he would be getting had 2011 happened differently, he is probably going to come in around $6 million. Relative to the value he has put up already in his career, Choo has not gotten paid much at all, and he certainly doesn't ever get recognition by the media. However, there was a time where he was recognized for his performance by the board, so the overall perception of Choo is not as soft as one might think. Meanwhile, the Indians seem as if they are looking to trade Choo this winter, which means they might think he's going to get what he deserves in free agency after next season.
Fan perception: C
Media recognition: D
Board perception: B+
Contract Value: B+
20) Neil Walker, 2B, Pittsburgh Pirates
It's really hard to get attention when you are a teammate of breakout star Andrew McCutchen (who didn't make this list because of his breakout season), and it's hard to get a good contract when you haven't even reached arbitration yet. The combination of these things puts Walker on the list, because he's already one of the better second basemen in the game. In the past two seasons, Walker has put up close to 7 wins of value when you adjust for a full season. This means that he's already contributed nearly 30 million dollars in value (using the free agent scale) and he made 500 thousand dollars in 2012. 2013 happens to be Walker's first arbitration year, but first-year eligible players don't typically win much in arbitration. Going forward, Walker is likely going to put up several 4+ win seasons, which makes him a likely candidate to be a top 5 second baseman in the game over the next five seasons. Because of this, Walker comes in at number 20 in our countdown.
Fan perception: B
Media recognition: C-
Board perception: A-
Contract Value: A+
19) Hanley Ramirez, 3B/SS, Los Angeles Dodgers
A former superstar-caliber player is an unlikely candidate for an undervalued list, but Hanley is here no less. The biggest reason Hanley is here is because of what he was traded for at the deadline. The Marlins made it very apparent in this trade that they don't think Hanley's talent is worth the apparent clubhouse frustration. However, they didn't need to make that as publicly known as they did, and that is what led to Hanley being completely undersold in the trade. Hanley has bounced back to put up a 3 fWAR season, and his numbers in Los Angeles suggest that he could be back to his former self if he is healthy and playing in the right environment. Even though the sample is extremely small, I don't think it is too outlandish to say it is plausible that Hanley will play better in a place that is a more favorable environment to him. If Hanley can be a 3.5 fWAR player (certainly possible) then he will be worth his contract. Being worth his contract as a well above-average player reflects even worse on his trade. Thus, Hanley winds up on the list.
Fan perception: A-
Media recognition: A
Board perception: C+
Contract Value: C-
18) Anibal Sanchez, SP, Detroit Tigers
Of all of the players on this list, Sanchez is the hardest one to place. On one hand, if he pitches to his peripherals, he is one of the better starters in baseball and likely the 3rd best pitcher in this year's free agent class. Unfortunately for Anibal, his end results have been consistently disappointing. In his defense, playing with the defenses of Florida and Detroit behind him has been an incredible misfortune, but 2013 is going to be a big year in determining just how valuable Annibal really is. I feel as if his perception in the league is completely split. On one hand, the Marlins started Mark Buehrle, Ricky Nolasco, and Carlos Zambrano in front of him. On the other, the Tigers were willing to move prospect Justin Turner in a deal for him (whether that is due to the drop in Turner's stock as a prospect or Sanchez' value as a player is up to you). This made his value hard to place, because it could be justified that he is a top 10 most undervalued player, but I could also see arguments for him being out of the top 25. It really depends on whether a person buys into Sanchez' fielding independent rates. Even though he is, in my opinion, the third best pitcher available this winter, I believe he is not going to be paid as such.
Fan perception: C
Media recognition: F
Board perception: B-
Contract Value: B
17) Jimmy Rollins, SS, Philadelphia Phillies
Rollins is one of my favorite players to place on this list because of how much his value has changed in 5 years. While he holds one of the most undeserved MVP awards of all time, he also was an undervalued option on the free agent market this winter. In the past two seasons, Rollins has produced 7.3 wins in value which makes him the 4th most valuable shortstop in the league over the past two seasons. However, due to his age and projected value, he was given only 11 million dollars per season when he was worth closer to 13 or 14. While his contract is not far away from being dead on in terms of value, it is the overwhelmingly negative perception by the media and fans (particularly on the message board I am a member of) that has gotten him on this list.
Fan perception: D
Media recognition: D+
Board perception: F
Contract Value: C
16) Ryan Doumit, C/UTIL, Minnesota Twins
There are certain deals in baseball that just should not happen. One of those is being able to snatch up a near two-win backup catcher who can play all over the field for three million dollars. With the likes of Kurt Suzuki, Geovany Soto, and Miguel Olivo being employed as starters on major league teams, it is rather unbelievable that Doumit is a backup who is rarely played at the position. Even if his defense is bad, his offense is good enough to make him a solid player who certainly is incredibly underpaid. As a member of the upcoming free agent class, Doumit is not likely to get any more money than he was paid this past season. If I were the GM of a team like Toronto or Seattle, this is a guy I would have on my radar as it is almost guaranteed he gets a friendly free agent contract. 3.3 fWAR over two seasons being paid only $3 million is a straight steal.
Fan perception: D-
Media recognition: F
Board perception: C
Contract Value: A
15) Miguel Cabrera, 3B, Detroit Tigers
Yes, it is arguable that a player who might be the best hitter in baseball (because of consistent performance year-to-year) and is making $21 million a season is undervalued. Over the past two years, Cabrera has averaged 6.55 fWAR, making him worth almost 28 million dollars. This makes his contract one of the only 20+ million dollar deals that is highly advantageous to the team rather than the player. Even though Cabrera was extended a while ago, his agent did a poor job of projecting value (granted that is a hard thing to do) in the future. This leads to Cabrera being an undervalued player. Quite honestly, his defense at third base hasn't been getting terrible reviews. Some scouts felt his hands could play well there, and even though his range is absent, it's not like he's been anything close to a 2 loss player at the position defensively. Considering that his offense has become more valuable at the position, it's no surprise that Cabrera's performance has been undervalued (considering I don't find it unreasonable for someone to claim that maintaining elite offensive numbers is hard to do during a position change).
14) Doug Fister, SP, Detroit Tigers
I really don't think there's a more undervalued starting pitcher in the majors. As you will see soon, Fister is actually the highest starting pitcher on this list. This is primarily due to the fact that pitchers are a premium on the free agent market and are thus rarely paid below a proper Dollar/WAR ratio. Unfortunately for Fister, he has yet to obtain enough playing time to reach this point, so he has played 2012 under a 507 thousand dollar contract and will be arbitration eligible for the first time this offseason. He is one of few pitchers who have seen their performance steadily improve in SIERA and xFIP over the past 4 seasons, and he is settling in as a very solid #3 starter on a contending team. As a pitcher who is likely to consistently put up 3+ win seasons, Fister is one of the most undervalued commodities in the league. However, he is still a starter, which means that he will eventually be paid like one either via extension or free agency. Thus, the highest starter on the list only comes in at number 14.
Fan perception: C-
Media recognition: D
Board perception: C+
Contract Value: A+
13) Alex Gordon, LF, Kansas City Royals
Once viewed as one of the game's elite prospects, Gordon completely fell off the face of the Earth value-wise. However, that disappointment was turned around last season when Gordon put up a staggering 6.9 fWAR, making him one of the league's elite players for the 2011 campaign. This year, Gordon has done all he can to repeat the feat and avoid disappointment by putting up 4.6 fWAR already in 2012. These numbers are the numbers of an individual who should be making 20+ million a season, but Gordon is not going to see anything remotely close to that any time soon. Here is a quick salary breakdown:
2012 salary: 6 million
2013 salary: 9 million
2014 salary: 10 million
2015 salary: 12.5 million
1016 salary: 12.5 million (team option)
As you can see, the Royals have one of the best contracts in baseball on their hands as they try to rebuild themselves as a franchise. Gordon only has to be a 2.5 win player to justify his contract in its latter stages, but that might be an aggressive estimate depending on how quickly the average Dollar/WAR ratio climbs over the next five seasons. The point here is that Gordon is one of the best outfielders in the game and hasn't gotten the recognition in the media or in his contract.
Fan perception: B
Media recognition: D
Board perception: A
Contract Value: A
12) Angel Pagan, CF, San Francisco Giants
With all that has happened with the Melky Cabrera situation, it is amazing how little Giants fans have been talking about the great season Angel Pagan is having. From a raw fWAR standpoint, I think Pagan may be the least well-known player in the league. After a marvelous 2010 campaign, Pagan disappointed in 2011 due to extremely poor BABIP numbers. Unfortunately for Mets fans, the Mets sold low on Pagan and shipped him to the Bay, where his BABIP has rebounded and he has put up a great season. With 3.5 fWAR and a salary of only 4.85 million dollars, Pagan has been one of the best value players in baseball this year. Interestingly enough, Pagan will be a free agent this offseason. If the Giants are smart, they will lock him up rather than wasting money on the likes of Josh Hamilton, because a smart move like that would allow them to fill holes in other places. Pagan could have been higher on this list, but the unknown status of his 2013 salary makes it hard to say whether he is truly a top 10 most undervalued player.
Fan perception: F
Media recognition: D-
Board perception: C-
Contract Value: A+
11) Austin Jackson, CF, Detroit Tigers
It is amazing that the media is just now catching onto the fact that Austin Jackson is a great player. Quite honestly, it's taken quite some time for people to accept that Jackson's defense, position, and naturally high BABIP make him one of the most valuable players in the league. He's contributed 11.8 wins of value over the past 3 seasons, and if you assume that his value would have been increased if not for a low BABIP by his standards in 2011, then that figure is closer to 13 wins. A consistent 4+ win player in center field is a dream player for just about any team. However, Jackson won't be arbitration eligible until this offseason, meaning he hasn't made jack for money in the league. Unfortunately for players, this is the fate of all players in their first few seasons in the league. However, Jackson should expect to put up one of the best first year arbitration figures when he files this offseason. Honestly, if the Tigers want to ensure a spot at the top of the AL Central, they will extend Jackson as soon as possible as to guarantee team control at a cheap price.
Fan perception: C
Media recognition: B
Board perception: A-
Contract Value: A
10) Erick Aybar, SS, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
If a list was made of best Dollar/WAR careers from a team standpoint at some time well down the road, I would wager that Erick Aybar is going to be very close to the top of the list. After his most recent extension, Aybar is locked into a salary figure of 8.5 million dollars from 2013-2016. As a player who has averaged 3.1 fWAR over the past two seasons, this is a steal of legendary proportions. With all of the money the Angels spent last offseason, the best deal was Aybar and it isn't particularly close. Finding a middle infielder of Aybar's caliber is challenging enough, but finding him and extending him for as little as the Angels paid is something worthy of applause. Truly a great value find on all levels, and nobody seems to be noticing.
Fan perception: F
Media recognition: D
Board perception: C-
Contract Value: A++
9) Glen Perkins, RP, Minnesota Twins
As I mentioned before, cost-controlled relief pitchers are hard to find. As much as relief pitchers are a dime-a-dozen, consistent relievers who avoid injury are extremely hard to find. One of the least recognized fantastic deals of the last few years is the Glen Perkins contract. On the open market, a pitcher of Perkins' status would fight for 8 million dollars a season or more, and he is going to be making less than 4 million dollars through the 2015 season. Quite honestly, some of the most undervalued pieces within an organization are cost-controlled relievers who have the ability to close. This is no different for Perkins, whose SIERA suggests he actually may be worth closer to 2.5 wins per season than 1.5 wins. If you want to rebuild a team, one of the best things to have is a cost-controlled reliever (because of the inherent trade value) and the Twins have that ace up their sleeve. If they decide to sell their roster and rebuild completely, Perkins will bring back a good package of prospects, and if they manage to build a competitive roster soon, then they will have a cost-effective closer.
Fan perception: B+
Media recognition: C
Board perception: C
Contract Value: A+
8) Jamey Carroll, SS/2B, Minnesota Twins
Much like his teammate Ryan Doumit, Jamey Carroll was signed to a contract that left me puzzled. The puzzlement came not from being overpaid but from the sheer disbelief in how little he went for. Even though he is an aging middle infielder with no truly redeeming qualities, Carroll has managed to put up two consecutive seasons in the neighborhood of 2 fWAR. This is surprising on every level, but a bit of research reveals the fact. However, Carroll was only given 2.75 million dollars in 2012, 3.75 in 2013, and a 2 million dollar team option this offseason. With all of the money that the Dodgers have spent the past 9 months, it is rather unbelievable that they just let Carroll walk. It is more unbelievable that nobody gave him a bigger deal than he got. Very rarely can a 2 win middle infielder be found on the open market, and the Twins managed to find one for less than 8 million dollars over three seasons.
Fan perception: F (Carroll is almost completely disregarded by Twins fans)
Media recognition: F
Board perception: F
Contract Value: A
7) Martin Prado, UTIL, Atlanta Braves
If the low BABIP numbers from 2011 that led to a 1.6 fWAR performance are set aside, Prado has put up an average of 4.6 fWAR over his last two non-fluke seasons. Despite this the Braves moved him off of his primary position at second base to trade for Dan Uggla, who hasn't been in the same galaxy value-wise as Prado. Going into his third year of arbitration, Prado is probably going to get somewhere in the neighborhood of 7 to 8 million dollars. Not only does this give him one of the most team-favorable salaries in the league, but it shows how hard some players have to work to gain respect and get paid what they are worth. Between the position move and the contract status, Prado comes in at number seven.
6) David Ortiz, DH, Boston Red Sox
Designated hitters are a rare breed in MLB. Contrary to popular belief, there aren't very many good designated hitters, and it is hard to justify the argument that these players add excitement to the game when they are so often such mediocre players. That being said, David Ortiz definitely is worthy of cracking the top six in this countdown. With so few quality designated hitters, it is hard to apply the 4.25 million dollar/WAR ratio to the position. If a position is as thin as DH is, then it makes sense to pay more money to acquire the player. However, the league doesn't seem too keen on doing such a thing. In fact, Ortiz has been paid below the 4.25 Dollar/WAR level in recent years, and he hasn't gotten a multi-year deal. In 2012 Ortiz will earn 14.575 million dollars and will perform at a 3.4 fWAR level by season's end. Considering he was coming off of a 4.2 win season, it is incredible that the Red Sox won't give him a multi-year deal. While he is old, he is also a DH, so the same decline we expect for most players is theoretically not as likely to apply (due to the fact that Ortiz' defense won't decline as a normal player's might because he doesn't have to play it). Top designated hitters as a whole are undervalued, and Ortiz is the best of them. Therefore, he is number six.
Fan perception: A
Media recognition: B+
Board perception: B
Contract Value: B
5) Greg Holland, RP, Kansas City Royals
Now that we're into the top five, the stakes are just a bit higher. Players need very team-friendly contracts, must get little media attention, and must be relatively disregarded by the fans of the league as a whole. Nobody better to start off the top five than one of the league's most unknown players. Greg Holland has been simply fantastic for Kansas City the last two seasons. He's averaged just under 2 wins as a reliever, and his SIERA numbers suggest that he is worth even ore than that. This makes him one of the best relievers in the league, and the beautiful part has even been mentioned yet. Because of the service time setup for MLB, Holland won't even be arbitration eligible until after NEXT season. This means he's going to be making around 500 thousand dollars for each 2012 and 2013 (depending on escalators). As a great reliever, Holland won't have a chance to reach free agency until the year 2017. He's one of the best value deals in the league, and nobody knows a thing about him.
Fan perception: F
Media recognition: F
Board perception: F
Contract Value: A
4) Miguel Montero, C, Arizona Diamondbacks
One of the top contracts in the league right now belongs to Miguel Montero and the Arizona Diamondbacks. Signed through 2017, Montero is never going to make the money in a season that he is worth now. He's on pace to put up back-to-back 4.4 fWAR seasons as one of baseball's best catchers. Because he plays in a small market on a relatively unfollowed team that plays most of its games late at night, Montero has gotten very little media attention. Whether part of being paid is placed in media perception or not, the Diamondbacks signed Montero to a very team-friendly deal and locked him up for a significant amount of time. Getting one of the best catchers in baseball for 10 million dollars is highway robbery, and that is why Montero is #4.
Fan perception: B-
Media recognition: D-
Board perception: B+
Contract Value: A
3) Ben Zobrist, 2B, Tampa Bay Rays
Sabermetricians love him, the average fan doesn't understand his value, and the Rays are geniuses so he's signed to one of the best contracts in the league. In 2011 he put up 6.6 fWAR and 2012 is likely to be a 5.0 fWAR season...and Ben Zobrist won't make anything more than 7.5 million dollars until at least 2016 unless the Rays restructure his contract. Zobrist has already matched the 1:1 Dollar/WAR ratio this season, and he is going to surpass it the second he gains more value. This might be the best overall contract in baseball (if not, it's very close), and Zobrist is 30 years old. In terms of getting recognized, Zobrist gets far less attention than even his own manager. Therefore, he's easily in the top 3 most undervalued players in the league.
Fan perception: C+
Media recognition: F
Board perception: A-
Contract Value: A+
2) David Wright, 3B, New York Mets
David Wright is almost the league's most underrated and underappreciated player. Wright has bounced back from a very rough 2011 season to show that he is still one of the league's elite players. While his defense can be a bit overrated, his reputation as an injury-prone player is not deserved and he is definitely an elite offensive third baseman. A lot of talk has been had regarding the possibility of trading Wright, but I think it would have made more sense for the Mets to extend him and try to build around him while his perceived value was at its low point. However, the ownership situation led to the sailing of that particular ship, and thus the Mets are faced with a 16 million dollar team option and the possibility of free agency or trade. The Mets need to realize that they have one of the league's elite players and should do their best to build around him. I think they can justify giving him a similar contract to the one he is currently playing under (using 2011 against Wright), and therefore can get a nice 5 year extension that gives them financial flexibility. He's having an MVP-caliber season and not even ESPN is noticing.
Fan perception: C
Media recognition: D
Board perception: B+
Contract Value: B+
1) Michael Bourn, CF, Atlanta Braves
I really do not think there is a more undervalued player in the league. It is my firm belief that Bourn is the best member of the upcoming 2013 free agent class, and I don't believe he is going to be paid as one of the top 3 (and because Edwin Jackson is a Boras client, his AAV might not even be top 4). It is sad just how much Bourn is undervalued, even by someone such as myself. I remember a while back, a boarder claimed that Bourn was one of the best players in the league and I laughed in his face. I now realize just how wrong I was. An elite center fielder who plays phenomenal defense, steals tons of bases, and is an above-average hitter is one of the best pieces you can get for a team. Bourn's last three seasons value-wise have shaped up as this:
Fan perception: D-
Media recognition: F
Board perception: D
Contract Value: A
The details and semantics of an article like this can be beaten to death. In defense of my analysis, it really is hard to determine what the words "underrated", "undervalued", and "underappreciated" mean (in fact, underappreciated isn't a word according to my browser). Therefore, I submit that these can be challenged and argued until the end of time. I just hope this article serves as a strong starting point and gets people to look into player value just a little bit more.
25) Rajai Davis, OF, Toronto Blue Jays
Our list begins in an unlikely place through an unlikely player. If you agreed with the previous sentence or were surprised to see Davis' name, then that is a good sign. Davis is the only player on this list who has had a full season below replacement level in the last two years. How, exactly, can a player like that be undervalued? Well, my reasoning for it is Davis' contract. Between 2010 and 2012, Davis has produced a total of 2.0 fWAR (the fangraphs version of the ultimate value metric). Using the free agent model I've used in the past, a player of Davis' quality as a one-win player is about 4.25 million dollars. In 2012, Davis is only making 2.75 million dollars, and his team option for 2013 calls for only 3 million dollars. Even though his value suggests he should be a fourth outfielder at best, his contract says that he is undervalued. Davis has the ability to put up a win of value in under 400 PA, and his ability to play all outfield positions means it's easy to find a spot for him on the roster. If the Blue Jays don't exercise Davis' team option, then Davis becomes one of the best available steals on the free agent market.
Fan perception: F
Media recognition: F
Board perception: C
Contract Value: B
24) Torii Hunter, RF, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Hunter is probably the individual on this list whose presence is hardest to explain. In 2012, Hunter is making 18 million dollars as a 3.2 fWAR player with a high BABIP (meaning he is probably closer to the 2.5 wins he was worth in 2011). The reason Hunter is on this list is that I have a gut feeling that his current contract is going to make people's perception of him as a player go down. Hunter's place on this list is based in projection rather than current status. I don't expect Hunter to get much more than 3 years/$20 million on the free agent market, and I feel like that is a steal for the team that signs him. Hunter can put up a total of 6 wins over the next 3 seasons, and that makes him worth $25.5 million. The Angels likely won't bring him back, and I am not sold that any of the 30 teams will give him even the 3 year/$20 million dollar contract I mentioned.
Fan perception: D
Media recognition: C
Board perception: F
Contract Value: F
23) Corey Hart, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers
Hart was not difficult to place on this list. He is playing above his contract and he isn't given much recognition by the media or the board. The hard part about ranking Hart is that he's tough to project. First off, he's seemingly moved to first base on a full-time basis. This makes the 4.2 fWAR he put up last year a false representation of his future value, and 2012 involves too much split time to really be used. I think it is fair to say that Hart can be a 2.5 win first baseman, which still makes his expected 10 million dollar salary in 2013 a relative steal. If Hart's defense at first can improve with more experience, then he has a shot to put up 3+ wins at the position.
Fan perception: D
Media recognition: F
Board perception: F
Contract Value: C+
22) Matt Belisle, RP, Colorado Rockies
Relief pitchers as a whole are extremely hard to gauge in terms of value. Some of them are extremely overvalued, but some of them are severely undervalued. Belisle is one of the guys who needs to get more credit than he has been given. Over the past two years, Belisle has put up roughly 3.0 fWAR and is only being paid in the 4 million dollar range in 2012 and 2013. For argument's sake, I'll say that a reliever of Belisle's caliber would be worth just under $7 million a year. However, since steady relievers are hard to find, it could be argued that Belisle is worth even more. Amazingly, it doesn't appear that Belisle was a hot item at the trade deadline, and I haven't seen much about him being a moveable piece this offseason. For a cost-controlled reliever who has been steady as of late, I would imagine that a rebuilding team like Colorado would want to ship Belisle out this winter.
Fan perception: F
Media recognition: F
Board perception: F
Contract Value: B
21) Shin-Soo Choo, RF, Cleveland Indians
Choo was probably the league's single most undervalued player heading into the 2011 season, but a terrible season resulting from mental challenges after a DUI and a strikingly low BABIP rate completely changed that. In 2012, Choo has bounced back as one of the better right fielders in baseball. As far as contract goes, Choo is going to be a third-year arbitration eligible player. This means that Choo is on pace for his largest pre-free agency pay day. However, rather than a $12 million+ figure he would be getting had 2011 happened differently, he is probably going to come in around $6 million. Relative to the value he has put up already in his career, Choo has not gotten paid much at all, and he certainly doesn't ever get recognition by the media. However, there was a time where he was recognized for his performance by the board, so the overall perception of Choo is not as soft as one might think. Meanwhile, the Indians seem as if they are looking to trade Choo this winter, which means they might think he's going to get what he deserves in free agency after next season.
Fan perception: C
Media recognition: D
Board perception: B+
Contract Value: B+
20) Neil Walker, 2B, Pittsburgh Pirates
It's really hard to get attention when you are a teammate of breakout star Andrew McCutchen (who didn't make this list because of his breakout season), and it's hard to get a good contract when you haven't even reached arbitration yet. The combination of these things puts Walker on the list, because he's already one of the better second basemen in the game. In the past two seasons, Walker has put up close to 7 wins of value when you adjust for a full season. This means that he's already contributed nearly 30 million dollars in value (using the free agent scale) and he made 500 thousand dollars in 2012. 2013 happens to be Walker's first arbitration year, but first-year eligible players don't typically win much in arbitration. Going forward, Walker is likely going to put up several 4+ win seasons, which makes him a likely candidate to be a top 5 second baseman in the game over the next five seasons. Because of this, Walker comes in at number 20 in our countdown.
Fan perception: B
Media recognition: C-
Board perception: A-
Contract Value: A+
19) Hanley Ramirez, 3B/SS, Los Angeles Dodgers
A former superstar-caliber player is an unlikely candidate for an undervalued list, but Hanley is here no less. The biggest reason Hanley is here is because of what he was traded for at the deadline. The Marlins made it very apparent in this trade that they don't think Hanley's talent is worth the apparent clubhouse frustration. However, they didn't need to make that as publicly known as they did, and that is what led to Hanley being completely undersold in the trade. Hanley has bounced back to put up a 3 fWAR season, and his numbers in Los Angeles suggest that he could be back to his former self if he is healthy and playing in the right environment. Even though the sample is extremely small, I don't think it is too outlandish to say it is plausible that Hanley will play better in a place that is a more favorable environment to him. If Hanley can be a 3.5 fWAR player (certainly possible) then he will be worth his contract. Being worth his contract as a well above-average player reflects even worse on his trade. Thus, Hanley winds up on the list.
Fan perception: A-
Media recognition: A
Board perception: C+
Contract Value: C-
18) Anibal Sanchez, SP, Detroit Tigers
Of all of the players on this list, Sanchez is the hardest one to place. On one hand, if he pitches to his peripherals, he is one of the better starters in baseball and likely the 3rd best pitcher in this year's free agent class. Unfortunately for Anibal, his end results have been consistently disappointing. In his defense, playing with the defenses of Florida and Detroit behind him has been an incredible misfortune, but 2013 is going to be a big year in determining just how valuable Annibal really is. I feel as if his perception in the league is completely split. On one hand, the Marlins started Mark Buehrle, Ricky Nolasco, and Carlos Zambrano in front of him. On the other, the Tigers were willing to move prospect Justin Turner in a deal for him (whether that is due to the drop in Turner's stock as a prospect or Sanchez' value as a player is up to you). This made his value hard to place, because it could be justified that he is a top 10 most undervalued player, but I could also see arguments for him being out of the top 25. It really depends on whether a person buys into Sanchez' fielding independent rates. Even though he is, in my opinion, the third best pitcher available this winter, I believe he is not going to be paid as such.
Fan perception: C
Media recognition: F
Board perception: B-
Contract Value: B
17) Jimmy Rollins, SS, Philadelphia Phillies
Rollins is one of my favorite players to place on this list because of how much his value has changed in 5 years. While he holds one of the most undeserved MVP awards of all time, he also was an undervalued option on the free agent market this winter. In the past two seasons, Rollins has produced 7.3 wins in value which makes him the 4th most valuable shortstop in the league over the past two seasons. However, due to his age and projected value, he was given only 11 million dollars per season when he was worth closer to 13 or 14. While his contract is not far away from being dead on in terms of value, it is the overwhelmingly negative perception by the media and fans (particularly on the message board I am a member of) that has gotten him on this list.
Fan perception: D
Media recognition: D+
Board perception: F
Contract Value: C
16) Ryan Doumit, C/UTIL, Minnesota Twins
There are certain deals in baseball that just should not happen. One of those is being able to snatch up a near two-win backup catcher who can play all over the field for three million dollars. With the likes of Kurt Suzuki, Geovany Soto, and Miguel Olivo being employed as starters on major league teams, it is rather unbelievable that Doumit is a backup who is rarely played at the position. Even if his defense is bad, his offense is good enough to make him a solid player who certainly is incredibly underpaid. As a member of the upcoming free agent class, Doumit is not likely to get any more money than he was paid this past season. If I were the GM of a team like Toronto or Seattle, this is a guy I would have on my radar as it is almost guaranteed he gets a friendly free agent contract. 3.3 fWAR over two seasons being paid only $3 million is a straight steal.
Fan perception: D-
Media recognition: F
Board perception: C
Contract Value: A
15) Miguel Cabrera, 3B, Detroit Tigers
Yes, it is arguable that a player who might be the best hitter in baseball (because of consistent performance year-to-year) and is making $21 million a season is undervalued. Over the past two years, Cabrera has averaged 6.55 fWAR, making him worth almost 28 million dollars. This makes his contract one of the only 20+ million dollar deals that is highly advantageous to the team rather than the player. Even though Cabrera was extended a while ago, his agent did a poor job of projecting value (granted that is a hard thing to do) in the future. This leads to Cabrera being an undervalued player. Quite honestly, his defense at third base hasn't been getting terrible reviews. Some scouts felt his hands could play well there, and even though his range is absent, it's not like he's been anything close to a 2 loss player at the position defensively. Considering that his offense has become more valuable at the position, it's no surprise that Cabrera's performance has been undervalued (considering I don't find it unreasonable for someone to claim that maintaining elite offensive numbers is hard to do during a position change).
14) Doug Fister, SP, Detroit Tigers
I really don't think there's a more undervalued starting pitcher in the majors. As you will see soon, Fister is actually the highest starting pitcher on this list. This is primarily due to the fact that pitchers are a premium on the free agent market and are thus rarely paid below a proper Dollar/WAR ratio. Unfortunately for Fister, he has yet to obtain enough playing time to reach this point, so he has played 2012 under a 507 thousand dollar contract and will be arbitration eligible for the first time this offseason. He is one of few pitchers who have seen their performance steadily improve in SIERA and xFIP over the past 4 seasons, and he is settling in as a very solid #3 starter on a contending team. As a pitcher who is likely to consistently put up 3+ win seasons, Fister is one of the most undervalued commodities in the league. However, he is still a starter, which means that he will eventually be paid like one either via extension or free agency. Thus, the highest starter on the list only comes in at number 14.
Fan perception: C-
Media recognition: D
Board perception: C+
Contract Value: A+
13) Alex Gordon, LF, Kansas City Royals
Once viewed as one of the game's elite prospects, Gordon completely fell off the face of the Earth value-wise. However, that disappointment was turned around last season when Gordon put up a staggering 6.9 fWAR, making him one of the league's elite players for the 2011 campaign. This year, Gordon has done all he can to repeat the feat and avoid disappointment by putting up 4.6 fWAR already in 2012. These numbers are the numbers of an individual who should be making 20+ million a season, but Gordon is not going to see anything remotely close to that any time soon. Here is a quick salary breakdown:
2012 salary: 6 million
2013 salary: 9 million
2014 salary: 10 million
2015 salary: 12.5 million
1016 salary: 12.5 million (team option)
As you can see, the Royals have one of the best contracts in baseball on their hands as they try to rebuild themselves as a franchise. Gordon only has to be a 2.5 win player to justify his contract in its latter stages, but that might be an aggressive estimate depending on how quickly the average Dollar/WAR ratio climbs over the next five seasons. The point here is that Gordon is one of the best outfielders in the game and hasn't gotten the recognition in the media or in his contract.
Fan perception: B
Media recognition: D
Board perception: A
Contract Value: A
12) Angel Pagan, CF, San Francisco Giants
With all that has happened with the Melky Cabrera situation, it is amazing how little Giants fans have been talking about the great season Angel Pagan is having. From a raw fWAR standpoint, I think Pagan may be the least well-known player in the league. After a marvelous 2010 campaign, Pagan disappointed in 2011 due to extremely poor BABIP numbers. Unfortunately for Mets fans, the Mets sold low on Pagan and shipped him to the Bay, where his BABIP has rebounded and he has put up a great season. With 3.5 fWAR and a salary of only 4.85 million dollars, Pagan has been one of the best value players in baseball this year. Interestingly enough, Pagan will be a free agent this offseason. If the Giants are smart, they will lock him up rather than wasting money on the likes of Josh Hamilton, because a smart move like that would allow them to fill holes in other places. Pagan could have been higher on this list, but the unknown status of his 2013 salary makes it hard to say whether he is truly a top 10 most undervalued player.
Fan perception: F
Media recognition: D-
Board perception: C-
Contract Value: A+
11) Austin Jackson, CF, Detroit Tigers
It is amazing that the media is just now catching onto the fact that Austin Jackson is a great player. Quite honestly, it's taken quite some time for people to accept that Jackson's defense, position, and naturally high BABIP make him one of the most valuable players in the league. He's contributed 11.8 wins of value over the past 3 seasons, and if you assume that his value would have been increased if not for a low BABIP by his standards in 2011, then that figure is closer to 13 wins. A consistent 4+ win player in center field is a dream player for just about any team. However, Jackson won't be arbitration eligible until this offseason, meaning he hasn't made jack for money in the league. Unfortunately for players, this is the fate of all players in their first few seasons in the league. However, Jackson should expect to put up one of the best first year arbitration figures when he files this offseason. Honestly, if the Tigers want to ensure a spot at the top of the AL Central, they will extend Jackson as soon as possible as to guarantee team control at a cheap price.
Fan perception: C
Media recognition: B
Board perception: A-
Contract Value: A
10) Erick Aybar, SS, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
If a list was made of best Dollar/WAR careers from a team standpoint at some time well down the road, I would wager that Erick Aybar is going to be very close to the top of the list. After his most recent extension, Aybar is locked into a salary figure of 8.5 million dollars from 2013-2016. As a player who has averaged 3.1 fWAR over the past two seasons, this is a steal of legendary proportions. With all of the money the Angels spent last offseason, the best deal was Aybar and it isn't particularly close. Finding a middle infielder of Aybar's caliber is challenging enough, but finding him and extending him for as little as the Angels paid is something worthy of applause. Truly a great value find on all levels, and nobody seems to be noticing.
Fan perception: F
Media recognition: D
Board perception: C-
Contract Value: A++
9) Glen Perkins, RP, Minnesota Twins
As I mentioned before, cost-controlled relief pitchers are hard to find. As much as relief pitchers are a dime-a-dozen, consistent relievers who avoid injury are extremely hard to find. One of the least recognized fantastic deals of the last few years is the Glen Perkins contract. On the open market, a pitcher of Perkins' status would fight for 8 million dollars a season or more, and he is going to be making less than 4 million dollars through the 2015 season. Quite honestly, some of the most undervalued pieces within an organization are cost-controlled relievers who have the ability to close. This is no different for Perkins, whose SIERA suggests he actually may be worth closer to 2.5 wins per season than 1.5 wins. If you want to rebuild a team, one of the best things to have is a cost-controlled reliever (because of the inherent trade value) and the Twins have that ace up their sleeve. If they decide to sell their roster and rebuild completely, Perkins will bring back a good package of prospects, and if they manage to build a competitive roster soon, then they will have a cost-effective closer.
Fan perception: B+
Media recognition: C
Board perception: C
Contract Value: A+
8) Jamey Carroll, SS/2B, Minnesota Twins
Much like his teammate Ryan Doumit, Jamey Carroll was signed to a contract that left me puzzled. The puzzlement came not from being overpaid but from the sheer disbelief in how little he went for. Even though he is an aging middle infielder with no truly redeeming qualities, Carroll has managed to put up two consecutive seasons in the neighborhood of 2 fWAR. This is surprising on every level, but a bit of research reveals the fact. However, Carroll was only given 2.75 million dollars in 2012, 3.75 in 2013, and a 2 million dollar team option this offseason. With all of the money that the Dodgers have spent the past 9 months, it is rather unbelievable that they just let Carroll walk. It is more unbelievable that nobody gave him a bigger deal than he got. Very rarely can a 2 win middle infielder be found on the open market, and the Twins managed to find one for less than 8 million dollars over three seasons.
Fan perception: F (Carroll is almost completely disregarded by Twins fans)
Media recognition: F
Board perception: F
Contract Value: A
7) Martin Prado, UTIL, Atlanta Braves
If the low BABIP numbers from 2011 that led to a 1.6 fWAR performance are set aside, Prado has put up an average of 4.6 fWAR over his last two non-fluke seasons. Despite this the Braves moved him off of his primary position at second base to trade for Dan Uggla, who hasn't been in the same galaxy value-wise as Prado. Going into his third year of arbitration, Prado is probably going to get somewhere in the neighborhood of 7 to 8 million dollars. Not only does this give him one of the most team-favorable salaries in the league, but it shows how hard some players have to work to gain respect and get paid what they are worth. Between the position move and the contract status, Prado comes in at number seven.
6) David Ortiz, DH, Boston Red Sox
Designated hitters are a rare breed in MLB. Contrary to popular belief, there aren't very many good designated hitters, and it is hard to justify the argument that these players add excitement to the game when they are so often such mediocre players. That being said, David Ortiz definitely is worthy of cracking the top six in this countdown. With so few quality designated hitters, it is hard to apply the 4.25 million dollar/WAR ratio to the position. If a position is as thin as DH is, then it makes sense to pay more money to acquire the player. However, the league doesn't seem too keen on doing such a thing. In fact, Ortiz has been paid below the 4.25 Dollar/WAR level in recent years, and he hasn't gotten a multi-year deal. In 2012 Ortiz will earn 14.575 million dollars and will perform at a 3.4 fWAR level by season's end. Considering he was coming off of a 4.2 win season, it is incredible that the Red Sox won't give him a multi-year deal. While he is old, he is also a DH, so the same decline we expect for most players is theoretically not as likely to apply (due to the fact that Ortiz' defense won't decline as a normal player's might because he doesn't have to play it). Top designated hitters as a whole are undervalued, and Ortiz is the best of them. Therefore, he is number six.
Fan perception: A
Media recognition: B+
Board perception: B
Contract Value: B
5) Greg Holland, RP, Kansas City Royals
Now that we're into the top five, the stakes are just a bit higher. Players need very team-friendly contracts, must get little media attention, and must be relatively disregarded by the fans of the league as a whole. Nobody better to start off the top five than one of the league's most unknown players. Greg Holland has been simply fantastic for Kansas City the last two seasons. He's averaged just under 2 wins as a reliever, and his SIERA numbers suggest that he is worth even ore than that. This makes him one of the best relievers in the league, and the beautiful part has even been mentioned yet. Because of the service time setup for MLB, Holland won't even be arbitration eligible until after NEXT season. This means he's going to be making around 500 thousand dollars for each 2012 and 2013 (depending on escalators). As a great reliever, Holland won't have a chance to reach free agency until the year 2017. He's one of the best value deals in the league, and nobody knows a thing about him.
Fan perception: F
Media recognition: F
Board perception: F
Contract Value: A
4) Miguel Montero, C, Arizona Diamondbacks
One of the top contracts in the league right now belongs to Miguel Montero and the Arizona Diamondbacks. Signed through 2017, Montero is never going to make the money in a season that he is worth now. He's on pace to put up back-to-back 4.4 fWAR seasons as one of baseball's best catchers. Because he plays in a small market on a relatively unfollowed team that plays most of its games late at night, Montero has gotten very little media attention. Whether part of being paid is placed in media perception or not, the Diamondbacks signed Montero to a very team-friendly deal and locked him up for a significant amount of time. Getting one of the best catchers in baseball for 10 million dollars is highway robbery, and that is why Montero is #4.
Fan perception: B-
Media recognition: D-
Board perception: B+
Contract Value: A
3) Ben Zobrist, 2B, Tampa Bay Rays
Sabermetricians love him, the average fan doesn't understand his value, and the Rays are geniuses so he's signed to one of the best contracts in the league. In 2011 he put up 6.6 fWAR and 2012 is likely to be a 5.0 fWAR season...and Ben Zobrist won't make anything more than 7.5 million dollars until at least 2016 unless the Rays restructure his contract. Zobrist has already matched the 1:1 Dollar/WAR ratio this season, and he is going to surpass it the second he gains more value. This might be the best overall contract in baseball (if not, it's very close), and Zobrist is 30 years old. In terms of getting recognized, Zobrist gets far less attention than even his own manager. Therefore, he's easily in the top 3 most undervalued players in the league.
Fan perception: C+
Media recognition: F
Board perception: A-
Contract Value: A+
2) David Wright, 3B, New York Mets
David Wright is almost the league's most underrated and underappreciated player. Wright has bounced back from a very rough 2011 season to show that he is still one of the league's elite players. While his defense can be a bit overrated, his reputation as an injury-prone player is not deserved and he is definitely an elite offensive third baseman. A lot of talk has been had regarding the possibility of trading Wright, but I think it would have made more sense for the Mets to extend him and try to build around him while his perceived value was at its low point. However, the ownership situation led to the sailing of that particular ship, and thus the Mets are faced with a 16 million dollar team option and the possibility of free agency or trade. The Mets need to realize that they have one of the league's elite players and should do their best to build around him. I think they can justify giving him a similar contract to the one he is currently playing under (using 2011 against Wright), and therefore can get a nice 5 year extension that gives them financial flexibility. He's having an MVP-caliber season and not even ESPN is noticing.
Fan perception: C
Media recognition: D
Board perception: B+
Contract Value: B+
1) Michael Bourn, CF, Atlanta Braves
I really do not think there is a more undervalued player in the league. It is my firm belief that Bourn is the best member of the upcoming 2013 free agent class, and I don't believe he is going to be paid as one of the top 3 (and because Edwin Jackson is a Boras client, his AAV might not even be top 4). It is sad just how much Bourn is undervalued, even by someone such as myself. I remember a while back, a boarder claimed that Bourn was one of the best players in the league and I laughed in his face. I now realize just how wrong I was. An elite center fielder who plays phenomenal defense, steals tons of bases, and is an above-average hitter is one of the best pieces you can get for a team. Bourn's last three seasons value-wise have shaped up as this:
2010
fWAR: 4.7
2011
fWAR: 4.2
2012
fWAR: 5.7
Yet as a third year arbitration eligible player, he only got 6.845 million dollars this year and is going into the 2013 free agent class as the least known top player. Hopefully the league recognizes his value and he gets more money than Josh Hamilton, but I doubt that is what actually happens. With that, Bourn is the league's most underrated and underappreciated player.
Media recognition: F
Board perception: D
Contract Value: A
The details and semantics of an article like this can be beaten to death. In defense of my analysis, it really is hard to determine what the words "underrated", "undervalued", and "underappreciated" mean (in fact, underappreciated isn't a word according to my browser). Therefore, I submit that these can be challenged and argued until the end of time. I just hope this article serves as a strong starting point and gets people to look into player value just a little bit more.
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