25) Rajai Davis, OF, Toronto Blue Jays
Our list begins in an unlikely place through an unlikely player. If you agreed with the previous sentence or were surprised to see Davis' name, then that is a good sign. Davis is the only player on this list who has had a full season below replacement level in the last two years. How, exactly, can a player like that be undervalued? Well, my reasoning for it is Davis' contract. Between 2010 and 2012, Davis has produced a total of 2.0 fWAR (the fangraphs version of the ultimate value metric). Using the free agent model I've used in the past, a player of Davis' quality as a one-win player is about 4.25 million dollars. In 2012, Davis is only making 2.75 million dollars, and his team option for 2013 calls for only 3 million dollars. Even though his value suggests he should be a fourth outfielder at best, his contract says that he is undervalued. Davis has the ability to put up a win of value in under 400 PA, and his ability to play all outfield positions means it's easy to find a spot for him on the roster. If the Blue Jays don't exercise Davis' team option, then Davis becomes one of the best available steals on the free agent market.
Fan perception: F
Media recognition: F
Board perception: C
Contract Value: B
24) Torii Hunter, RF, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Hunter is probably the individual on this list whose presence is hardest to explain. In 2012, Hunter is making 18 million dollars as a 3.2 fWAR player with a high BABIP (meaning he is probably closer to the 2.5 wins he was worth in 2011). The reason Hunter is on this list is that I have a gut feeling that his current contract is going to make people's perception of him as a player go down. Hunter's place on this list is based in projection rather than current status. I don't expect Hunter to get much more than 3 years/$20 million on the free agent market, and I feel like that is a steal for the team that signs him. Hunter can put up a total of 6 wins over the next 3 seasons, and that makes him worth $25.5 million. The Angels likely won't bring him back, and I am not sold that any of the 30 teams will give him even the 3 year/$20 million dollar contract I mentioned.
Fan perception: D
Media recognition: C
Board perception: F
Contract Value: F
23) Corey Hart, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers
Hart was not difficult to place on this list. He is playing above his contract and he isn't given much recognition by the media or the board. The hard part about ranking Hart is that he's tough to project. First off, he's seemingly moved to first base on a full-time basis. This makes the 4.2 fWAR he put up last year a false representation of his future value, and 2012 involves too much split time to really be used. I think it is fair to say that Hart can be a 2.5 win first baseman, which still makes his expected 10 million dollar salary in 2013 a relative steal. If Hart's defense at first can improve with more experience, then he has a shot to put up 3+ wins at the position.
Fan perception: D
Media recognition: F
Board perception: F
Contract Value: C+
22) Matt Belisle, RP, Colorado Rockies
Relief pitchers as a whole are extremely hard to gauge in terms of value. Some of them are extremely overvalued, but some of them are severely undervalued. Belisle is one of the guys who needs to get more credit than he has been given. Over the past two years, Belisle has put up roughly 3.0 fWAR and is only being paid in the 4 million dollar range in 2012 and 2013. For argument's sake, I'll say that a reliever of Belisle's caliber would be worth just under $7 million a year. However, since steady relievers are hard to find, it could be argued that Belisle is worth even more. Amazingly, it doesn't appear that Belisle was a hot item at the trade deadline, and I haven't seen much about him being a moveable piece this offseason. For a cost-controlled reliever who has been steady as of late, I would imagine that a rebuilding team like Colorado would want to ship Belisle out this winter.
Fan perception: F
Media recognition: F
Board perception: F
Contract Value: B
21) Shin-Soo Choo, RF, Cleveland Indians
Choo was probably the league's single most undervalued player heading into the 2011 season, but a terrible season resulting from mental challenges after a DUI and a strikingly low BABIP rate completely changed that. In 2012, Choo has bounced back as one of the better right fielders in baseball. As far as contract goes, Choo is going to be a third-year arbitration eligible player. This means that Choo is on pace for his largest pre-free agency pay day. However, rather than a $12 million+ figure he would be getting had 2011 happened differently, he is probably going to come in around $6 million. Relative to the value he has put up already in his career, Choo has not gotten paid much at all, and he certainly doesn't ever get recognition by the media. However, there was a time where he was recognized for his performance by the board, so the overall perception of Choo is not as soft as one might think. Meanwhile, the Indians seem as if they are looking to trade Choo this winter, which means they might think he's going to get what he deserves in free agency after next season.
Fan perception: C
Media recognition: D
Board perception: B+
Contract Value: B+
20) Neil Walker, 2B, Pittsburgh Pirates
It's really hard to get attention when you are a teammate of breakout star Andrew McCutchen (who didn't make this list because of his breakout season), and it's hard to get a good contract when you haven't even reached arbitration yet. The combination of these things puts Walker on the list, because he's already one of the better second basemen in the game. In the past two seasons, Walker has put up close to 7 wins of value when you adjust for a full season. This means that he's already contributed nearly 30 million dollars in value (using the free agent scale) and he made 500 thousand dollars in 2012. 2013 happens to be Walker's first arbitration year, but first-year eligible players don't typically win much in arbitration. Going forward, Walker is likely going to put up several 4+ win seasons, which makes him a likely candidate to be a top 5 second baseman in the game over the next five seasons. Because of this, Walker comes in at number 20 in our countdown.
Fan perception: B
Media recognition: C-
Board perception: A-
Contract Value: A+
19) Hanley Ramirez, 3B/SS, Los Angeles Dodgers
A former superstar-caliber player is an unlikely candidate for an undervalued list, but Hanley is here no less. The biggest reason Hanley is here is because of what he was traded for at the deadline. The Marlins made it very apparent in this trade that they don't think Hanley's talent is worth the apparent clubhouse frustration. However, they didn't need to make that as publicly known as they did, and that is what led to Hanley being completely undersold in the trade. Hanley has bounced back to put up a 3 fWAR season, and his numbers in Los Angeles suggest that he could be back to his former self if he is healthy and playing in the right environment. Even though the sample is extremely small, I don't think it is too outlandish to say it is plausible that Hanley will play better in a place that is a more favorable environment to him. If Hanley can be a 3.5 fWAR player (certainly possible) then he will be worth his contract. Being worth his contract as a well above-average player reflects even worse on his trade. Thus, Hanley winds up on the list.
Fan perception: A-
Media recognition: A
Board perception: C+
Contract Value: C-
18) Anibal Sanchez, SP, Detroit Tigers
Of all of the players on this list, Sanchez is the hardest one to place. On one hand, if he pitches to his peripherals, he is one of the better starters in baseball and likely the 3rd best pitcher in this year's free agent class. Unfortunately for Anibal, his end results have been consistently disappointing. In his defense, playing with the defenses of Florida and Detroit behind him has been an incredible misfortune, but 2013 is going to be a big year in determining just how valuable Annibal really is. I feel as if his perception in the league is completely split. On one hand, the Marlins started Mark Buehrle, Ricky Nolasco, and Carlos Zambrano in front of him. On the other, the Tigers were willing to move prospect Justin Turner in a deal for him (whether that is due to the drop in Turner's stock as a prospect or Sanchez' value as a player is up to you). This made his value hard to place, because it could be justified that he is a top 10 most undervalued player, but I could also see arguments for him being out of the top 25. It really depends on whether a person buys into Sanchez' fielding independent rates. Even though he is, in my opinion, the third best pitcher available this winter, I believe he is not going to be paid as such.
Fan perception: C
Media recognition: F
Board perception: B-
Contract Value: B
17) Jimmy Rollins, SS, Philadelphia Phillies
Rollins is one of my favorite players to place on this list because of how much his value has changed in 5 years. While he holds one of the most undeserved MVP awards of all time, he also was an undervalued option on the free agent market this winter. In the past two seasons, Rollins has produced 7.3 wins in value which makes him the 4th most valuable shortstop in the league over the past two seasons. However, due to his age and projected value, he was given only 11 million dollars per season when he was worth closer to 13 or 14. While his contract is not far away from being dead on in terms of value, it is the overwhelmingly negative perception by the media and fans (particularly on the message board I am a member of) that has gotten him on this list.
Fan perception: D
Media recognition: D+
Board perception: F
Contract Value: C
16) Ryan Doumit, C/UTIL, Minnesota Twins
There are certain deals in baseball that just should not happen. One of those is being able to snatch up a near two-win backup catcher who can play all over the field for three million dollars. With the likes of Kurt Suzuki, Geovany Soto, and Miguel Olivo being employed as starters on major league teams, it is rather unbelievable that Doumit is a backup who is rarely played at the position. Even if his defense is bad, his offense is good enough to make him a solid player who certainly is incredibly underpaid. As a member of the upcoming free agent class, Doumit is not likely to get any more money than he was paid this past season. If I were the GM of a team like Toronto or Seattle, this is a guy I would have on my radar as it is almost guaranteed he gets a friendly free agent contract. 3.3 fWAR over two seasons being paid only $3 million is a straight steal.
Fan perception: D-
Media recognition: F
Board perception: C
Contract Value: A
15) Miguel Cabrera, 3B, Detroit Tigers
Yes, it is arguable that a player who might be the best hitter in baseball (because of consistent performance year-to-year) and is making $21 million a season is undervalued. Over the past two years, Cabrera has averaged 6.55 fWAR, making him worth almost 28 million dollars. This makes his contract one of the only 20+ million dollar deals that is highly advantageous to the team rather than the player. Even though Cabrera was extended a while ago, his agent did a poor job of projecting value (granted that is a hard thing to do) in the future. This leads to Cabrera being an undervalued player. Quite honestly, his defense at third base hasn't been getting terrible reviews. Some scouts felt his hands could play well there, and even though his range is absent, it's not like he's been anything close to a 2 loss player at the position defensively. Considering that his offense has become more valuable at the position, it's no surprise that Cabrera's performance has been undervalued (considering I don't find it unreasonable for someone to claim that maintaining elite offensive numbers is hard to do during a position change).
14) Doug Fister, SP, Detroit Tigers
I really don't think there's a more undervalued starting pitcher in the majors. As you will see soon, Fister is actually the highest starting pitcher on this list. This is primarily due to the fact that pitchers are a premium on the free agent market and are thus rarely paid below a proper Dollar/WAR ratio. Unfortunately for Fister, he has yet to obtain enough playing time to reach this point, so he has played 2012 under a 507 thousand dollar contract and will be arbitration eligible for the first time this offseason. He is one of few pitchers who have seen their performance steadily improve in SIERA and xFIP over the past 4 seasons, and he is settling in as a very solid #3 starter on a contending team. As a pitcher who is likely to consistently put up 3+ win seasons, Fister is one of the most undervalued commodities in the league. However, he is still a starter, which means that he will eventually be paid like one either via extension or free agency. Thus, the highest starter on the list only comes in at number 14.
Fan perception: C-
Media recognition: D
Board perception: C+
Contract Value: A+
13) Alex Gordon, LF, Kansas City Royals
Once viewed as one of the game's elite prospects, Gordon completely fell off the face of the Earth value-wise. However, that disappointment was turned around last season when Gordon put up a staggering 6.9 fWAR, making him one of the league's elite players for the 2011 campaign. This year, Gordon has done all he can to repeat the feat and avoid disappointment by putting up 4.6 fWAR already in 2012. These numbers are the numbers of an individual who should be making 20+ million a season, but Gordon is not going to see anything remotely close to that any time soon. Here is a quick salary breakdown:
2012 salary: 6 million
2013 salary: 9 million
2014 salary: 10 million
2015 salary: 12.5 million
1016 salary: 12.5 million (team option)
As you can see, the Royals have one of the best contracts in baseball on their hands as they try to rebuild themselves as a franchise. Gordon only has to be a 2.5 win player to justify his contract in its latter stages, but that might be an aggressive estimate depending on how quickly the average Dollar/WAR ratio climbs over the next five seasons. The point here is that Gordon is one of the best outfielders in the game and hasn't gotten the recognition in the media or in his contract.
Fan perception: B
Media recognition: D
Board perception: A
Contract Value: A
12) Angel Pagan, CF, San Francisco Giants
With all that has happened with the Melky Cabrera situation, it is amazing how little Giants fans have been talking about the great season Angel Pagan is having. From a raw fWAR standpoint, I think Pagan may be the least well-known player in the league. After a marvelous 2010 campaign, Pagan disappointed in 2011 due to extremely poor BABIP numbers. Unfortunately for Mets fans, the Mets sold low on Pagan and shipped him to the Bay, where his BABIP has rebounded and he has put up a great season. With 3.5 fWAR and a salary of only 4.85 million dollars, Pagan has been one of the best value players in baseball this year. Interestingly enough, Pagan will be a free agent this offseason. If the Giants are smart, they will lock him up rather than wasting money on the likes of Josh Hamilton, because a smart move like that would allow them to fill holes in other places. Pagan could have been higher on this list, but the unknown status of his 2013 salary makes it hard to say whether he is truly a top 10 most undervalued player.
Fan perception: F
Media recognition: D-
Board perception: C-
Contract Value: A+
11) Austin Jackson, CF, Detroit Tigers
It is amazing that the media is just now catching onto the fact that Austin Jackson is a great player. Quite honestly, it's taken quite some time for people to accept that Jackson's defense, position, and naturally high BABIP make him one of the most valuable players in the league. He's contributed 11.8 wins of value over the past 3 seasons, and if you assume that his value would have been increased if not for a low BABIP by his standards in 2011, then that figure is closer to 13 wins. A consistent 4+ win player in center field is a dream player for just about any team. However, Jackson won't be arbitration eligible until this offseason, meaning he hasn't made jack for money in the league. Unfortunately for players, this is the fate of all players in their first few seasons in the league. However, Jackson should expect to put up one of the best first year arbitration figures when he files this offseason. Honestly, if the Tigers want to ensure a spot at the top of the AL Central, they will extend Jackson as soon as possible as to guarantee team control at a cheap price.
Fan perception: C
Media recognition: B
Board perception: A-
Contract Value: A
10) Erick Aybar, SS, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
If a list was made of best Dollar/WAR careers from a team standpoint at some time well down the road, I would wager that Erick Aybar is going to be very close to the top of the list. After his most recent extension, Aybar is locked into a salary figure of 8.5 million dollars from 2013-2016. As a player who has averaged 3.1 fWAR over the past two seasons, this is a steal of legendary proportions. With all of the money the Angels spent last offseason, the best deal was Aybar and it isn't particularly close. Finding a middle infielder of Aybar's caliber is challenging enough, but finding him and extending him for as little as the Angels paid is something worthy of applause. Truly a great value find on all levels, and nobody seems to be noticing.
Fan perception: F
Media recognition: D
Board perception: C-
Contract Value: A++
9) Glen Perkins, RP, Minnesota Twins
As I mentioned before, cost-controlled relief pitchers are hard to find. As much as relief pitchers are a dime-a-dozen, consistent relievers who avoid injury are extremely hard to find. One of the least recognized fantastic deals of the last few years is the Glen Perkins contract. On the open market, a pitcher of Perkins' status would fight for 8 million dollars a season or more, and he is going to be making less than 4 million dollars through the 2015 season. Quite honestly, some of the most undervalued pieces within an organization are cost-controlled relievers who have the ability to close. This is no different for Perkins, whose SIERA suggests he actually may be worth closer to 2.5 wins per season than 1.5 wins. If you want to rebuild a team, one of the best things to have is a cost-controlled reliever (because of the inherent trade value) and the Twins have that ace up their sleeve. If they decide to sell their roster and rebuild completely, Perkins will bring back a good package of prospects, and if they manage to build a competitive roster soon, then they will have a cost-effective closer.
Fan perception: B+
Media recognition: C
Board perception: C
Contract Value: A+
8) Jamey Carroll, SS/2B, Minnesota Twins
Much like his teammate Ryan Doumit, Jamey Carroll was signed to a contract that left me puzzled. The puzzlement came not from being overpaid but from the sheer disbelief in how little he went for. Even though he is an aging middle infielder with no truly redeeming qualities, Carroll has managed to put up two consecutive seasons in the neighborhood of 2 fWAR. This is surprising on every level, but a bit of research reveals the fact. However, Carroll was only given 2.75 million dollars in 2012, 3.75 in 2013, and a 2 million dollar team option this offseason. With all of the money that the Dodgers have spent the past 9 months, it is rather unbelievable that they just let Carroll walk. It is more unbelievable that nobody gave him a bigger deal than he got. Very rarely can a 2 win middle infielder be found on the open market, and the Twins managed to find one for less than 8 million dollars over three seasons.
Fan perception: F (Carroll is almost completely disregarded by Twins fans)
Media recognition: F
Board perception: F
Contract Value: A
7) Martin Prado, UTIL, Atlanta Braves
If the low BABIP numbers from 2011 that led to a 1.6 fWAR performance are set aside, Prado has put up an average of 4.6 fWAR over his last two non-fluke seasons. Despite this the Braves moved him off of his primary position at second base to trade for Dan Uggla, who hasn't been in the same galaxy value-wise as Prado. Going into his third year of arbitration, Prado is probably going to get somewhere in the neighborhood of 7 to 8 million dollars. Not only does this give him one of the most team-favorable salaries in the league, but it shows how hard some players have to work to gain respect and get paid what they are worth. Between the position move and the contract status, Prado comes in at number seven.
6) David Ortiz, DH, Boston Red Sox
Designated hitters are a rare breed in MLB. Contrary to popular belief, there aren't very many good designated hitters, and it is hard to justify the argument that these players add excitement to the game when they are so often such mediocre players. That being said, David Ortiz definitely is worthy of cracking the top six in this countdown. With so few quality designated hitters, it is hard to apply the 4.25 million dollar/WAR ratio to the position. If a position is as thin as DH is, then it makes sense to pay more money to acquire the player. However, the league doesn't seem too keen on doing such a thing. In fact, Ortiz has been paid below the 4.25 Dollar/WAR level in recent years, and he hasn't gotten a multi-year deal. In 2012 Ortiz will earn 14.575 million dollars and will perform at a 3.4 fWAR level by season's end. Considering he was coming off of a 4.2 win season, it is incredible that the Red Sox won't give him a multi-year deal. While he is old, he is also a DH, so the same decline we expect for most players is theoretically not as likely to apply (due to the fact that Ortiz' defense won't decline as a normal player's might because he doesn't have to play it). Top designated hitters as a whole are undervalued, and Ortiz is the best of them. Therefore, he is number six.
Fan perception: A
Media recognition: B+
Board perception: B
Contract Value: B
5) Greg Holland, RP, Kansas City Royals
Now that we're into the top five, the stakes are just a bit higher. Players need very team-friendly contracts, must get little media attention, and must be relatively disregarded by the fans of the league as a whole. Nobody better to start off the top five than one of the league's most unknown players. Greg Holland has been simply fantastic for Kansas City the last two seasons. He's averaged just under 2 wins as a reliever, and his SIERA numbers suggest that he is worth even ore than that. This makes him one of the best relievers in the league, and the beautiful part has even been mentioned yet. Because of the service time setup for MLB, Holland won't even be arbitration eligible until after NEXT season. This means he's going to be making around 500 thousand dollars for each 2012 and 2013 (depending on escalators). As a great reliever, Holland won't have a chance to reach free agency until the year 2017. He's one of the best value deals in the league, and nobody knows a thing about him.
Fan perception: F
Media recognition: F
Board perception: F
Contract Value: A
4) Miguel Montero, C, Arizona Diamondbacks
One of the top contracts in the league right now belongs to Miguel Montero and the Arizona Diamondbacks. Signed through 2017, Montero is never going to make the money in a season that he is worth now. He's on pace to put up back-to-back 4.4 fWAR seasons as one of baseball's best catchers. Because he plays in a small market on a relatively unfollowed team that plays most of its games late at night, Montero has gotten very little media attention. Whether part of being paid is placed in media perception or not, the Diamondbacks signed Montero to a very team-friendly deal and locked him up for a significant amount of time. Getting one of the best catchers in baseball for 10 million dollars is highway robbery, and that is why Montero is #4.
Fan perception: B-
Media recognition: D-
Board perception: B+
Contract Value: A
3) Ben Zobrist, 2B, Tampa Bay Rays
Sabermetricians love him, the average fan doesn't understand his value, and the Rays are geniuses so he's signed to one of the best contracts in the league. In 2011 he put up 6.6 fWAR and 2012 is likely to be a 5.0 fWAR season...and Ben Zobrist won't make anything more than 7.5 million dollars until at least 2016 unless the Rays restructure his contract. Zobrist has already matched the 1:1 Dollar/WAR ratio this season, and he is going to surpass it the second he gains more value. This might be the best overall contract in baseball (if not, it's very close), and Zobrist is 30 years old. In terms of getting recognized, Zobrist gets far less attention than even his own manager. Therefore, he's easily in the top 3 most undervalued players in the league.
Fan perception: C+
Media recognition: F
Board perception: A-
Contract Value: A+
2) David Wright, 3B, New York Mets
David Wright is almost the league's most underrated and underappreciated player. Wright has bounced back from a very rough 2011 season to show that he is still one of the league's elite players. While his defense can be a bit overrated, his reputation as an injury-prone player is not deserved and he is definitely an elite offensive third baseman. A lot of talk has been had regarding the possibility of trading Wright, but I think it would have made more sense for the Mets to extend him and try to build around him while his perceived value was at its low point. However, the ownership situation led to the sailing of that particular ship, and thus the Mets are faced with a 16 million dollar team option and the possibility of free agency or trade. The Mets need to realize that they have one of the league's elite players and should do their best to build around him. I think they can justify giving him a similar contract to the one he is currently playing under (using 2011 against Wright), and therefore can get a nice 5 year extension that gives them financial flexibility. He's having an MVP-caliber season and not even ESPN is noticing.
Fan perception: C
Media recognition: D
Board perception: B+
Contract Value: B+
1) Michael Bourn, CF, Atlanta Braves
I really do not think there is a more undervalued player in the league. It is my firm belief that Bourn is the best member of the upcoming 2013 free agent class, and I don't believe he is going to be paid as one of the top 3 (and because Edwin Jackson is a Boras client, his AAV might not even be top 4). It is sad just how much Bourn is undervalued, even by someone such as myself. I remember a while back, a boarder claimed that Bourn was one of the best players in the league and I laughed in his face. I now realize just how wrong I was. An elite center fielder who plays phenomenal defense, steals tons of bases, and is an above-average hitter is one of the best pieces you can get for a team. Bourn's last three seasons value-wise have shaped up as this:
2010
fWAR: 4.7
2011
fWAR: 4.2
2012
fWAR: 5.7
Yet as a third year arbitration eligible player, he only got 6.845 million dollars this year and is going into the 2013 free agent class as the least known top player. Hopefully the league recognizes his value and he gets more money than Josh Hamilton, but I doubt that is what actually happens. With that, Bourn is the league's most underrated and underappreciated player.
Media recognition: F
Board perception: D
Contract Value: A
The details and semantics of an article like this can be beaten to death. In defense of my analysis, it really is hard to determine what the words "underrated", "undervalued", and "underappreciated" mean (in fact, underappreciated isn't a word according to my browser). Therefore, I submit that these can be challenged and argued until the end of time. I just hope this article serves as a strong starting point and gets people to look into player value just a little bit more.
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