Another extension went down last night, so let's dive right in:
Elvis Andrus, SS
Deal: 8 years/$120 million (now 10 years/$131.275 total, no options, probably an out clause somewhere)
After agreeing to a 3 year/$14.4 million extension last February, it looks like the Rangers managed to lock down their man for good this time. Late last night it was reported that the above extension was agreed to, and it appears that Elvis Andrus is taking his physical this morning/afternoon. This deal has brought up a lot of questions regarding the Rangers' roster, but for now I want to focus on the deal itself. Firstly, the most interesting thing about this deal is that Elvis Andrus is a Boras client. Yes, a Scott Boras client signed for the long-haul without ever touching the free agent market during his career (well, at least through his early 30's, anyway). This represents, IMO, a change of heart for Scott Boras and the rest of his corporation, and it would not surprise me if this is his response to how poorly the last off season appeared to have gone for him. Secondly, the deal is...well...pretty darn amazing for Texas. Over the next 10 years, they'll only be paying Andrus an AAV of $13.1 million, and they will only be paying $15 million AAV to Andrus over the new years on the deal. Using the extension model of 4.3 d/WAR (remember, Andrus was still two years from free agency), this deal calls for Andrus to produce 27.9 WAR over the life of the new part of the deal. Can he do it? Let's see:
2015 (26): 4.5 (I'm going to say that, if not for a fluke BsR number, Andrus would have been worth about this much in 2012, and I think he's really reached his plateau as a player)
2016 (27): 4.5
2017 (28): 4.5
2018 (29): 4.2 (speed guy, lots of miles on his legs by this point, you never know...better safe than sorry)
2019 (30): 4.0
2020 (31): 3.7
2021 (32): 3.5
2022 (33): 3.5
I typically like to give the benefit of the doubt to guys, and I think I did here. Andrus is a guy whose greatest asset is his speed. He uses it on the bases, where he's an elite-level runner, and he uses it in the field to build range. His second greatest asset is his defense, where he has been consistently rated among the best in baseball since he showed up in the league. These are two skills that should carry well over time and really are not prone to flukes the way things like hits (yay BABIP) and power are(no matter what defensive metrics say, really). If this model pans out, Andrus will be worth 32.4 wins, which is slightly better than what the extension calls for (and as I've mentioned in other posts, the 4.3 d/WAR number will likely start to climb rapidly).
So the Rangers got, at worst, a very good deal for Andrus. Even though he is now under control for ten years, 70% of that time comes before he hits the age of 31, which sits in that magical realm of production I talked about in my WAR study. However, this deal doesn't come without some consequences. Let's get into that now.
Roster Flexibility and the Fate of Jurickson Profar and Ian Kinsler
This right here, ladies and gentlemen, is why having a strong farm system is the greatest resource any team can have. When you have a strong farm, you get many choices. You can choose to promote the prospect and play him or you can trade the prospect and upgrade at another position on your roster. After losing Josh Hamilton and C.J. Wilson the past two years, many questioned what Mr. Daniels was doing. Well, this is what he was doing. He now has the ultimate asset: a young shortstop who happens to be the best prospect in baseball. He also has a second shortstop who just so happens to be among the best at his position and is now signed for the next decade. Oh, and as a kicker, he has a second baseman who is still producing high amounts of value. Let's look at two scenarios: in the first, we're going to make the Rangers...*gasp*...TRADE Jurickson Profar, and in the second, we're going to move Ian Kinsler to a couple different positions to see what happens.
Scenario One: Trading Profar
This is glorious for Texas. Jurickson Profar is one of the most valuable assets in baseball, and he hasn't started a full season in the bigs yet. But what could the Rangers do with Profar? Well, just about anything. Luckily for Texas, the St. Louis Cardinals have the best farm system and a great need for a shortstop. If the Rangers were to trade Profar to St. Louis, they would most surely get back Oscar Taveras and MORE from the Cardinals (well, if they did the deal smartly). However, the Cardinals aren't the only club with young talent to pair with Profar. A better deal for Texas would be to trade Profar for more of a sure bet. How about Giancarlo Stanton? The Marlins won't want to pay him shortly, and they certainly need a large amount of young talent to continue their rebuilding effort. Stanton provided nearly six wins in value last year in 123 games, and he's still only going to be 23 next year. I would wager that the Rangers could immediately extend Stanton after a trade and move Nelson Cruz out to left field (or, more ideally, to DH). This move would add six wins of immediate value to Texas, which is more valuable than waiting to see if Profar will develop. However, a deal of Profar for Stanton surely won't be enough, so young guys like Leonys Martin and Mike Olt would have to be dealt as well (which might work, because Olt is blocked like no other).
Scenario Two: Shifting the Lineup by Moving Kinsler
So let's say the Rangers decide to hold onto Profar. Well, this most certainly means he becomes their regular second baseman going forward. However, what becomes of Ian Kinsler? Well, David Murphy is only under contract through this season. This means that left field is vacant, and someone needs to go out and fill it. One thought is that Ian Kinsler could head out that way himself, but he's never played in a MLB outfield before, and the saying goes "you can't teach an old dog new tricks." Another thought is that Mitch Moreland could go out to left field himself. But really, the most likely scenario is this:
Kinsler to first
Moreland to DH
Berkman to retirement
Murphy gets re-signed
This doesn't change a ton in value, but it does hurt Kinsler's value a bit. His offense at first would be among the worst at the position in the league, and his contract suddenly loses a lot of value. However, the team also gets the added bonus of having Profar at second. If scouts are right, Profar will be producing enough value to make everyone forget that Kinsler was a second baseman in the first place.
Lasting Thought
Ideally for Texas, this deal turns into a blockbuster trade for Giancarlo Stanton paired with a long-term extension. More realistically, it means that the Rangers have the best defensive middle of the infield since Vizquel/Alomar and have to deal with Kinsler at first base. While some will say the Rangers should have just given Profar the chance at shortstop, there's just too much risk involved there. They went with the very young sure bet at a premium position, which is never a bad decision. They now have plenty of roster flexibility to do as they please. Ultimately, this is just another great move added to the long list of great moves the Rangers have made over the past five years.
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