2012 Record: 93-69
Pythag Record: 82-80
Games Out of First: 2.0
I'm going to make my first interjection here because you've probably noticed the difference between the actual record and the expected Pythag record. This is a great example of why bullpens are so underrated. The Orioles had a 3.00 bullpen ERA in 545 innings. When you don't score a lot of runs and you aren't good at preventing runs as a starting rotation, then it is mandatory for you to lock down every single win. That's what the Orioles' bullpen did, and it is the only reason they made the playoff run they did last year. The Orioles were 16-2 in extra inning games and 29-9 in one run games. Both results were historic and the result of an incredible bullpen performance (and frankly, some dumb luck).
Top Performers by WAR
1. Adam Jones, 3.4
2. Matt Wieters, 3.2
3. J.J. Hardy, 3.0
4. Jason Hammel, 2.9
5. Wei-Yin Chen, 2.2
2012 Recap
From the fan's perspective, what the Orioles did in 2012 was amazing. They were 15th in wRC+, 24th in team UZR, 27th in BsR, and 19th in team xFIP (25th in K/9, 13th in BB/9, and 23rd in HR/9). They were not good at anything as a team, yet they won 93 games! Well, to say they were good at nothing is misleading. They weren't good at anything but playing with a lead. Their bullpen was truly incredible despite really not being all that impressive on paper. That's the beauty of baseball. Teams like the 2012 Orioles happen. Individually the club was led by Adam Jones. His 126 wRC+ in center field was a key cog in the Orioles being decent enough offensively to get small leads so that the bullpen could hold them down.
Off Season Recap
Really, really quiet off season from Baltimore. This surprised a lot of people, given the numbers I just showed above. Knowing how many weaknesses they had, it was surprising to see them not look to address any major needs. Instead of doing a summary, I'll just say that all the Orioles did was add Alexi Casilla and Jair Jurrjens....as well as let Mark Reynolds walk.
2013 Outlook
Taking an approach of fixing things from the inside means that the Orioles' roster from 2012 to 2013 is not much different at all. This means that one of three things will happen:
1) Nothing changes, the bullpen is still amazing, and they can hope to luck their way to about 88-90 wins.
2) Everything changes, they get better across the board, the bullpen falters a little bit, and they win about 85-88 games.
3) The team as a whole doesn't change a whole lot and the bullpen comes down to Earth. This means that they win about 80-82 games.
I hate to burst the bubbles of optimists, but most of the primary contributors for the 2012 Orioles were either in, entering, or exiting their primes. Outside of Manny Machado, who will be handling third base every day, the team is pretty much right in the prime of its abilities. This means that without a change in personnel, there probably isn't a lot of change that will go on. This means that the key to the Orioles season is listed below:
The bullpen needs to repeat. End of story. If it doesn't, then they are a really below-average to average team.
Potential Breakout Player
Matt Wieters, C
Here's the thing about Wieters: he's already one of the best defensive catchers in baseball (probably top 5). All he's missing is a bat. Wieters has posted modest wRC+ values of 110 and 106 the past two years. If he can square some more balls up and get his BABIP up about 20 points or so, I think he can be a 120 wRC+ player, which probably means 6+ fWAR.
Potential Bust Player
The Bullpen
Keeping with the theme of the post, this one seems obvious. The bullpen had a strand rate of 78.5% as a unit despite only striking out 7.49 batters per nine innings. Given how little contact they avoid and how small the typical bullpen sample size is, my money is on the numbers normalizing just a little bit and this pen being a bit more unlucky. Expect a unit ERA of 3.5 or better.
Starting Nine and Starting Rotation
C- Matt Wieters
1B- Chris Davis
2B- Brian Roberts
SS- J.J. Hardy
3B- Manny Machado
LF- Nate McClouth
CF- Adam Jones
RF- Nick Markakis (if he plays 140 games, the Orioles gain about an extra win in value)
DH- Wilson Betemit
SP- Jason Hammel
SP- Wei-Yin Chen
SP- Chris Tillman
SP- Miguel Gonzalez
SP- Jair Jurrjens
Expectations
Record: 81-81
Team MVP: Matt Wieters, 5.9 WAR
Lasting Thought
What the Orioles did last year was truly fantastic to watch, but I'm trying to be a realist about this team. It is not very likely the bullpen repeats, and as a result of that it is unlikely that they do well. They missed an opportunity to improve as a team when they needed it. Going forward, this club does have Manny Machado and Dylan Bundy waiting to make a difference. If Machado breaks out (don't expect him to yet) then the Orioles might be ok offensively, but I don't love the idea of that happening.
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