Season Previews, Part 30: Philadelphia Phillies

2011 Record: 102-60
Pythagorean Record: 103-59
Won Division

Top Performers by WAR (rWAR for hitters, fWAR for pitchers):
1. Roy Halladay, 8.2
2. Cliff Lee, 6.7
3. Shane Victorino, 5.1
4. Cole Hamels, 4.9
5. Jimmy Rollins, 3.7

2011 Recap
The Phillies were projected to be very competitive in 2011 – and that’s exactly what happened. They easily won the NL East with the best record in all of baseball and were the only team to win over 100 games at 102-60. They had the best pitching in all of baseball according to fWAR (27.5) that was led by Roy Halladay (2.35 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 2.46 FIP), Cliff Lee (2.68 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 3.10 FIP) and Cole Hamels (3.02 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 2.99 FIP). Vance Worley was a nice surprise after Joe Blanton went down due to an injury to his elbow (in 25 games, 3.01 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 3.32 FIP).

The offensive side wasn’t as good as it was in 2010 as they had to deal with the loss of Jayson Werth and an aging core of players. They went from being one of the best in 2010 to slightly above average in2011, scoring 4.40 R/G. League average hit .253/.319/.391/.710; the Phillies hit .253/.323/.395/.717. They received a spike in offense after acquiring Hunter Pence at the deadline as he went on to hit .324/.394/.560/.954 with 11 HR and 35 RBI in 54 games with the Phillies. Shane Victorino broke out by having his best year as he hit .279/.355/.491/.847, 135 wRC+.

The Phillies were an easy favorite to advance far in the playoffs, but were booted by a hot Cardinals team in 5 games in the NLDS.

Offseason Overview
The Phillies were pretty quiet this off-season as they only needed tweaking. They resigned Jimmy Rollins, signed closer Jonathan Papelbon to replace the departed Ryan Madson and then added players for depth. Roy Oswalt and Raul Ibanez are going to be replaced internally. Ryan Howard will be on the DL until at least May and maybe longer as he suffered a setback from his ankle injury by getting an infection. Newcomer Ty Wigginton is projected to get most of the AB at 1B, but Jim Thome and John Mayberry will also see some time there. Chad Qualls was acquired to strengthen the bullpen and Laynce Nix to strengthen the bench. Dontrelle Willis was signed for God knows why. SP Joel Pineiro, OF Juan Pierre and OF Scott Podsednik were signed to minor league contracts to add depth.

Notable Additions:
CL Jonathan Papelbon
1B Jim Thome
1B/3B Ty Wigginton
RP Chad Qualls

Notable Subtractions:
SP Roy Oswalt
CL Ryan Madson
LF Raul Ibanez

Projected Starting Lineup:
Right-handed:
SS Jimmy Rollins
3B Placido Polanco
2B Chase Utley
RF Hunter Pence
CF Shane Victorino
LF John Mayberry
1B Ty Wigginton
C Carlos Ruiz
Pitcher’s Spot

Left-handed:
SS Jimmy Rollins
3B Placido Polanco
2B Chase Utley
RF Hunter Pence
CF Shane Victorino
1B John Mayberry
LF Lance Nix
C Carlos Ruiz
Pitcher’s Spot

The Phillies are already without Ryan Howard until at least May. Chase Utley and Placido Polanco are an injury concerns. Utley hasn’t even played a game after 2 weeks into ST yet. Freddy Galvis has been playing 2B in his absence, so he might be the one to take over that position if Utley has to go on the DL at any point during the season. Wigginton can move over to 3B in case Polanco has to miss some time, but there’s also Michael Martinez that can fill in. Once highly touted prospect Domonic Brown has yet to translate his minor league success in the majors will compete for playing time in LF (but is due to start the year in AAA). In other words, there’s going to be a lot of mix and matching with the offense.

Projected Rotation:
RHP Roy Halladay
LHP Cliff Lee
LHP Cole Hamels
RHP Vance Worley
RHP Joe Blanton

One of, if not the best, pitching rotations in all of baseball will remain pretty much the same as last year. Roy Oswalt is gone and in his place is the now healthy Joe Blanton. Kyle Kendrick, who has started 98 games since 2007, is scheduled to be in the bullpen but can be moved to the rotation in case of an injury.

Key Bench/Bullpen:
1B Jim Thome
OF Domonic Brown
INF Michael Martinez
CL Jonathan Papelbon
SU Antonio Bastardo

Roster Strength

The starting rotation. Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels are all good enough to be aces on multiple teams, but it was the emergence of Vance Worley that makes it that much stronger. Worley had a great rookie year and there’s reason to believe that he can keep it up. He had a 3.32 FIP, 3.66 xFIP, 8.13 K/9, 3.14 BB/9. The 78.2% LOB% suggests a little bit of luck in stranding runners, but given his age of only 24, he can easily bank on the success of 2011 when going forward. His BABIP of .283 is completely normal and shows no signs of luck.

Some numbers over the last 3 years:
Halladay – 2.53 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 2.84 FIP, 8.05 K/9, 1.24 BB/9
Lee – 3.13 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 3.16 FIP, 8.03 K/9, 1.37 BB/9
Hamels – 3.36 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 3.47 FIP, 8.34 K/9, 2.15 BB/9

Roster Weakness

An aging offense with injury concerns. As mentioned earlier, the Phillies are going to have to mix and match with some of their players, namely at 1B, 2B and possibly 3B. Only Hunter Pence and John Mayberry will be on the good side of 30 from the projected starting lineup. An offense that was only average last year might have to work harder in 2012 to remain average.

2012 Outlook
The NL East got a lot stronger in 2012, mainly with the Marlins and Nationals. The Braves were the Phillies biggest threat in 2011 and are projected to be in the thick of race again in 2012. The Phillies probably won’t win the division as easily as they did in 2011. However, their starting pitching should be strong enough to carry them to a division title, even if their offense isn’t as good as it was last year.

Potential Breakout Player
John Mayberry. Most of this Phillies team is already pretty well established. John Mayberry is one of the few players that has limited ML experience. At 27 years old in 2011, he was pretty old for someone to just be getting extended playing time, but he responded well, hitting .273/.341/.513/.854. With both LF and 1B in question, Mayberry will be getting plenty of opportunity to show that he can duplicate those numbers over a full season. The good news is that at 28, he’s right in his prime. However, the flip side of that is that he’s likely not going to get any better than he is right now. His .293 BABIP shows that his 2011 numbers can easily be repeated.

Potential Bust
Placido Polanco. Polanco has been declining for the past 3-4 years now and has been battling injuries for the past 2 years. He hit .277/.335/.339/.674 last year in only 122 games. He’s definitely taking advantage of the hitter’s park he’s playing in; he had a 59 RC+ on the road last year while batting .238/.296/.272. At 36 years old, he’s likely going to continue to decline and if the injuries come back, he’s headed for an awful year.



Potential Prospects that can Contribute in 2012
Shortstop Freddy Galvis. Once thought to take over for Jimmy Rollins, Galvis’ main attribute is his great defense. His bat came around last year, between AA and AAA, he had a .716 OPS – the highest it’s ever been in the minors. He’s been playing 2B in Utley’s absence and he’s also learning 3B. With Rollins potentially signed for 4 more years, the Phillies are trying to make him a utility player.

Relief pitcher Phillippe Aumont. Aumont was moved to the bullpen permanently in 2011. Between AA and AAA, he had a 2.68 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 2.34 FIP. He has two plus pitchers, a mid-high 90s fastball and a curveball. He has an opportunity to make the team out of Spring Training, but he still has command and control issues, so he’ll probably start the year in AAA and get called up if an injury strikes the bullpen.

Predictions
Projected Record: 96-66
Projected Finish:1st Place
Projected MVP: Roy Halladay (around 7 WAR)

Final Thoughts
If everything comes together, the Phillies should continue their dynasty that they started in 2007. They are, however, getting older so that dynasty might be coming to an end pretty soon. The NL East is getting stronger and the Phillies are getting older. Their pitching staff should carry them, though if too many more injuries hit the Phillies, they will be on the outside looking in for the first time since 2006.

Season Previews, Part 20: San Francisco Giants

2011 Record: 86-76
Pythagorean Record: 80-82
Games out of first: 8

Top Performers by WAR (rWAR for hitters, fWAR for pitchers):
1. Pablo Sandoval, 6.1
2. Madison Bumgarner, 5.5
3. Matt Cain, 5.2
4. Tim Lincecum, 4.4
5. Ryan Vogelsong, 2.4

2011 Recap
If there is one word to describe the defending 2010 World Series Champion San Francisco Giants, it would be “injury.” Brian Wilson and Cody Ross began the year on the DL. Soon after the season began Andres Torres, Barry Zito, Mark DeRosa, Pablo Sandoval, Darren Ford and Mike Fontenot had DL stints. But no injury was more costly than 2010 Rookie of the Year Buster Posey’s, when on May 25th he was blocking home plate and Florida Marlins’ player Scott Cousins collided into him. Posey would require surgery and be out for the rest of the season. A definite blow to their offense as Posey was the cleanup hitter. This incident would create much controversy during the season for a potential rule change that would protect catchers from such plays.



Injuries would also affect Brandon Belt, Freddy Sanchez, Jonathan Sanchez, Bill Hall, Pat Burrell and Miguel Tejada as the season continued. The Giants never really had all of their regulars playing all at the same time. Despite all of this, they found themselves in first place as the trade deadline neared thanks in large part to their pitching. Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain remained as one of the best 1-2 punches in the NL, but it was the emergence of sophomore Madison Bumgarner and a surprise effort by Ryan Vogelsong that rounded out a strong starting pitching staff. Bumgarner started 18 games in 2010 with a 3.00 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 7.0 K/9, 3.66 FIP and kept it up over a full season in 2011 with a 3.21 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, 2.67 FIP. Vogelsong had been playing in Japan from 2007-2009 after having little to no success in MLB before that. In 2010, he was pitching in the minors for the Angels and Phillies and then signed a minor league deal with the Giants for 2011. If it wasn’t for all the injuries, he might not have gotten as much playing time as he did, but he impressed with a 2.71 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 7.0 K/9, 3.67 FIP, good enough to make the NL All-Star Game.

Being in first place at the deadline means being buyers. The Giants traded their best trading chip in pitcher Zack Wheeler for Carlos Beltran. In a separate deal, they acquired infielder Orlando Cabrera. These moves were supposed to help with the offense as the Giants scored a league-leading worse 3.5 Runs/Game (in comeback fashion, Pablo Sandoval hit an impressive .315/.357/.552/.909 after a disappointing 2010 season). Almost as an initiation, Carlos Beltran would strain his hand and wrist and would miss a few weeks on the DL. When he came back, he hit a strong .323/.369/.551/.920 for the Giants, but it was too little too late as the Giants fell to 2nd place, 8 GB of the NL West and 4 GB of the Wild Card.

Offseason Overview
The Giants made two major trades during the off-season. They traded centerfielder Andres Torres and relief pitcher Ramon Ramirez to the Mets for centerfielder Angel Pagan. Then to make room to keep Vogelsong in the rotation, they traded Jonathan Sanchez and minor leaguer Ryan Verdugo to the Royals for outfielder Melky Cabrera. The Giants succeeded in getting younger (and hopefully healthier) in the outfield. Theriot was added as INF depth.

Notable Additions:
OF Melky Cabrera
OF Angel Pagan
INF Ryan Theriot

Notable Subtractions:
SP Jonathan Sanchez
OF Andres Torres
RP Ramon Ramirez
OF Carlos Beltran
OF Pat Burrell
OF Cody Ross
SS Orlando Cabrera

Projected Starting Lineup:
CF Angel Pagan
LF Melky Cabrera
3B Pablo Sandoval
C Buter Posey
1B Aubrey Huff
RF Nate Schierholtz
2B Freddy Sanchez
SS Brandon Crawford
Pitcher’s Spot

For a team that’s supposed to contend this year, there’re some question marks with the lineup. Who bats 2nd? Freddy Sanchez is used to batting 2nd but manager Bruce Bochy said he might experiment with Melky Cabrera in the 2-hole, and it makes sense. Sanchez is getting older and declining while Cabrera is younger and just came off a breakout year.

Speaking of Cabrera, he’s a question mark himself. In the five seasons prior, he averaged .267/.329/.380 with about 8 HR and 10 SB per year. All of a sudden, he hits .305/.339/.470 with 18 HR and 20 SB in 2011. That normally would scream “fluke.” While it may seem that Cabrera has been around forever, some people may forget that he is only entering his age 27 season. There’s nothing unusual with having a player’s breakout year at the age of 26. His BABIP was a high .332 and there is reason to believe that it’ll regress back to the .300 range. So, yes Cabrera’s production will likely decrease a little from last year, but it may not crash back to his 2006-2010 numbers that most people are predicting. There’s reason to believe that he naturally just became a better hitter.

After the 1-4 spots, there is nothing to get too excited about. Brandon Belt could be occupying an everyday job by the end of the season and there’s hope that he can improve on his lackluster rookie campaign. However, there’s talk that he may not even make the team out of Spring Training. Brandon Crawford is simply there just for his defense.

Projected Rotation:
RHP Tim Lincecum
RHP Matt Cain
LHP Madison Bumgarner
RHP Ryan Vogelsong
LHP Barry Zito

Barry Zito may be getting paid to be an ace, but he’s nowhere near the best pitcher on this staff. Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner are as good of a trio as any in baseball. All could potentially be the ace on multiple teams across MLB. Vogelsong is very serviceable as a #4. Therefore, Zito just has to be healthy and contribute 190 innings and the Giants should have one of the best pitching staffs in all of baseball.

Key Bench/Bullpen:
1B/LF Brandon Belt
INF Mike Fontenot
INF Ryan Theriot
CL Brian Wilson
SU Sergio Romo

Roster Strength

Pitching. In 2011, the Giants compiled 17.6 fWAR from their starting pitching, 2nd only to the Phillies (who had an incredible 25.8 fWAR from their starters). The only difference between the 2012 and 2011 starting pitching is a (hopefully) healthy Barry Zito replacing Jonathan Sanchez. Everyone knows the success of Lincecum and Cain, but here are some numbers: over the last 3 years, The Freak has put up a line of 2.87 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 2.88 FIP, 17.3 fWAR and Matt Cain has put up a line of 2.97 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 3.48 FIP, 12.3 fWAR. Their fWAR are top 10 in the NL during that time. Only the Phillies (Halladay and Hamels) and Cardinals (Carpenter and Wainwright) also have 2 pitchers in the top 10 in the NL during that time. Both pitchers are still under 30, therefore they are still in their prime and should easily continue the trend for 2012. If that’s not enough, Madison Bumgarner had a great first full-season, and only being 22, could even improve. That’s a 1-2-3 that only the Phillies can challenge with Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels.

The pitching even extends to the bullpen. Brian Wilson was bothered by his elbow for most of 2011, but if he can go back to his 2009-2010 form, he’ll be an elite closer once again. Sergio Romo has been one of the best setup men in all of baseball (2.38 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 11.3 K/9, 2.09 FIP over the last 3 years). Jeremy Affeldt, Santiago Casilla and Javier Lopez are also strong bullpen arms.

Roster Weakness
Weak bottom of the batting order/depth. A healthy Pablo Sandoval and Buster Posey will form a good middle of the order. Angel Pagan is a serviceable lead-off hitter and will get on base and steal some bases. Melky Cabrera won’t be as good as his 2011 season, but should be decent. Aubrey Huff got old and crashed and burned in 2011 and could likely be replaced by either Brandon Belt or Brett Pill by the end of the season. The batting order doesn’t seem strong enough to have a defensive-only spot in Brandon Crawford. Unfortunately, the Giants don’t have much in trading chips to help them out at the deadline if injuries strike again. So, they are going to have to rely on being healthy and Brandon Belt carrying his success from the minors to the majors (and actually taking playing time away from the fading Aubrey Huff).

2012 Outlook
It is remarkable that the Giants remained competitive for the majority of 2011 with all the injuries they had. They have pretty much the same team in 2012 (Torres and Ross are being replaced by the younger Pagan and Cabrera while Zito will replace Sanchez in the rotation). If they can remain healthy over the course of the season and everyone plays up to their potential, the Giants are the best team in the NL West. Sure, their offense isn’t the strongest, but they were able to have a winning record with the worst Runs/Game in the NL in 2011. Now they have Buster Posey healthy again and hopefully Brandon Belt can make the transition to the majors. Their pitching is so strong that they don’t have to score a ton of runs in order to win.

Potential Breakout Player
Madison Bumgarner. How does a guy who had as good of a year as Bumgarner had in 2011 become a breakout candidate for 2012? When he’s only 22 years old and his peripherals suggest he had a better season than his ERA shows. He didn’t have an unsustainable BABIP (.322) and his LOB% was league average (72.4%). Yet, his FIP (2.67) and xFIP (3.10) were lower than his ERA (3.21). That suggests that he may have been a little unlucky in 2011. How unlucky? Well one way to measure that is to take the difference between ERA and FIP. In the NL, Bumgarner was the 6th unluckiest pitcher with an E-F of 0.54. His FIP was 4th in the NL after Roy Halladay, Clayton Kershaw and Cliff Lee. That’s good company. One concern is his overuse of sliders (32%). Pitchers who throw that many sliders usually have ended up on the DL, with how much stress it takes to throw the pitch. Given his age and talent, he could easily adjust.

Potential Bust
Ryan Vogelsong. He hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2006 and all of a sudden he’s an all-star pitcher with a sub-3.00 ERA? Something doesn’t look right here. His LOB% (80.4%) was higher than average, meaning he was putting runners on base and stranding them at an above average rate. This usually evens out by the next year and as those runners score, it increases his ERA. His FIP (3.67) and xFIP (3.82) suggest that his ERA (2.71) should’ve been about a run higher than it was. However, there are some encouraging signs. His strikeout rate and walk rate are better than he’s ever shown in the majors before and his FIP and xFIP are also better. He could still be a useful starter for the Giants but just not as good as his 2011 ERA suggests.

Potential Prospects that can Contribute in 2012
Starting pitcher Eric Surkamp. Surkamp made 6 starts in 2011, with a 5.74 ERA, 1.84 WHIP, 4.4 K/9, 4.68 FIP after pitching 2.02 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 10.43 K/9, 2.37 FIP in 23 games at AA. Surkamp is likely to start the year in AAA, but should be the first pitcher recalled if injury hits that starting rotation. Surkamp has a below-average fastball with plus command and a “big looping curveball” as his out pitch. Scouts project him as nothing more than a 5th starter.

First baseman Brett Pill. Given how bad Aubrey Huff was last year, he should be a bench player or released altogether. However, the Giants have committed $10 million to him for 2012, therefore they are going to give him some time to see if he can bounce back. The Giants already announced that their OF is going to be Schierholtz, Pagan and Cabrera. That means there is no room for Brandon Belt to start, so he may start the year at AAA. What does all of this have to do with Brett Pill? Well, if Belt doesn’t make the team, than Pill most surely will. Pill was impressive in his first tour of duty in the majors last year, hitting .300/.321/.560 in 15 games after hitting .312/.341/.530 in AAA.

Predictions
Projected Record: 90-72
Projected Finish: 2nd Place
Projected MVP: Pablo Sandoval (6.0 WAR)

Final Thoughts
I see the Arizona Diamondbacks as the Giants biggest threat in the NL West, who improved themselves with SP Trevor Cahill. One nice thing for the Giants this year is the introduction of the 2nd Wild Card as they have an even greater chance of making the playoffs as one of the Wild Card winners. The thing that’s preventing me from placing the Giants atop of the NL West over the D-Backs is the lack of trading chips if they need to upgrade at the deadline. It’ll be hard for them to add a Carlos Beltran-like impact player this year. If they remain healthy and a little luck goes their way this year, I could easily see the Giants winning their division.

Season Previews, Part 11: Oakland Athletics

2011 Record: 74-88
Pythagorean Record: 77-85
Games out of first: 22

Top Performers by WAR (rWAR for hitters, fWAR for pitchers):
1. Brandon McCarthy, 4.7
2. Gio Gonzalez, 3.5
3. Trevor Cahill, 2.5
4. Coco Crisp, 2.1
5. Josh Willingham, 1.8

2011 Recap
Many people had the Athletics competing last year and some had them even winning the division. That didn’t quite work out for Mr. Moneyball, which was unfortunate since there was a movie honoring his success that came out right at the end of the season. They had disappointing seasons from 2B Mark Ellis and 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff, who were replaced by Jemile Weeks and Scott Sizemore, respectively. Dareic Barton missed more than half the year due to a shoulder injury (and might miss the start of 2012). Josh Willingham was the only player to have over 15 HR (he had 29) and over a .800 OPS (it was at .810). Willingham, Sizemore and Weeks were the only regulars to provide above average production as they were the only players to have an OPS+ and wRC+ over 100. Coco Crisp was exactly at 100 wRC+ and also stole 49 bases. That pretty much sums up the A’s offense as they only averaged 3.98 runs/game. Only Minnesota and Seattle were worse in the AL.

On the pitching side, Gio Gonzalez (3.12), Brandon McCarthy (3.32) and Guillermo Moscoso (3.38) had nice ERAs. However, Moscoso’s 4.23 FIP suggests that he was quite lucky and he will likely not repeat it this year. This is similar to Trevor Cahill who had a 2.97 ERA in 2010 but regressed to a 4.16 ERA in 2011, although his FIP remained largely unchanged, 4.19 in 2010 and 4.10 in 2011. Injury struck Dallas Braden and Brett Anderson. Braden only made 3 starts before having season-ending shoulder surgery. Anderson only made 13 starts before having Tommy John Surgery. Rich Harden provided his usual half-season of work but with terrible results (5.12 ERA, 1.43 WHIP). Overall, what was supposed to be a strength of the team turned into very mediocre results.

Offseason Overview
The A’s were busy, busy, busy this off-season. Billy Beane went into full-out rebuild mode as the majority of his roster is going to be full of rookies and players with minimal major league experience in 2012. Some key transactions include:

- 12/9 – Traded Trevor Cahill and Craig Breslow to Arizona for Jarrod Parker, Collin Cowgill and Ryan Cook
- 12/23 Traded Gio Gonzalez and Robert Gilliam to Washington for Brad Peacock, Derek Norris, Tom Milone and A.J. Cole
- 12/28 Traded Andrew Bailey and Ryan Sweeney to Boston for Josh Reddick, Miles Head and Raul Alcantara
- 1/16 Traded Guillermo Moscosco and Josh Outman for Seth Smith
- 1/24 Signed Bartolo Colon
- 1/26 Signed Jonny Gomes
- 2/13 Signed Yoenis Cespedes (4 years/$36 million)
- 2/20 Signed Manny Ramirez

When it’s all said and done, the A’s have a new starting centerfielder, a new rightfielder, a new DH platoon, 4/5 of a new rotation, a loss of a closer and many prospects.

Notable Additions:
LF Seth Smith
RF Josh Reddick
CF Yoenis Cespedes
SP Brad Peacock
SP Jarrod Parker
SP Tom Milone
SP Bartolo Colon
OF/DH Jonny Gomes
DH Manny Ramirez

Notable Subtractions:
LF Josh Willingham
RF David DeJesus
DH Hideki Matsui
SP Trevor Cahill
SP Gio Gonzalez
SP Rich Harden
SP Guillermo Moscoso
CL Andrew Bailey

Projected Starting Lineup:
2B Jemile Weeks
LF Coco Crisp
RF Josh Reddick
DH Seth Smith/Jonny Gomes
CF Yoenis Cespedes
C Kurt Suzuki
3B Scott Sizemore
1B Brandon Allen
SS Cliff Pennington

Lots of turnover as only Coco Crisp, Kurt Suzuki and Cliff Pennington remain from the opening day 2011 lineup. Daric Barton is due to miss the start of the 2012 season or else he would likely be starting on opening day again in 2012. Manny Ramirez might also be starting if it wasn’t for his 50-game suspension. Many people believe that Yoenis Cespedes might need some time in AAA before seeing major league pitching, although he has insisted that he’s ready. The A’s are the kind of team that could start him at the major league level right away as they aren’t planning on competing. If he struggles, though, a trip to the minors could come.

Projected Rotation:
RHP Brandon McCarthy
RHP Bartolo Colon
RHP Jarrod Parker
RHP Brad Peacock
LHP Tom Milone

Again, lots of turnover as Brandon McCarthy is the only holdover from 2011. Dallas Braden is due back in mid-April and Brett Anderson is still recovering from Tommy John Surgery and is expected back sometime in August. This allows all three rookies, Parker, Peacock and Milone to be in the rotation to start the season.

Key Bench/Bullpen:
OF Collin Cowgill
1B Daric Barton
INF Adam Rosales
INF Eric Sogard
RP Grant Balfour
RP Fautino De Los Santos
RP Joey Devine
RP Brian Fuentes

The key here is that after the trade of Andrew Bailey there is no obvious replacement. The A’s have four viable candidates in Balfour, De Los Santos, Devine and Fuentes – and all could get save opportunities during the season.

Roster Strength
Depth and flexibility. Billy Bean is making sure he has enough depth at almost every possible position with the question marks surrounding the rookies and injury-related players. Brandon Allen is going to start the year as the first baseman, but there’s also Daric Barton, prospect Chris Carter and minor leaguer Kila Ka’aihue available to play that position. Sogard can play all the other infield positions and Sizemore came up as a second baseman, so can easily slide over there if the need arises. If Cespedes has to spend some time in the minors, Coco Crisp is a viable option to play CF. Cowgill can play all the OF positions and even though they are slated to DH, both Seth Smith and Jonny Gomes are capable of playing the corner OF positions (Smith was slated to play LF before the acquisition of Cespedes). Then there’s Manny Ramirez sitting on the back burner, ready to contribute after he serves his suspension.

With Braden and Anderson out, the A’s have 3 rookies who are as close to major league ready as they come in Parker, Peacock and Milone. Bartolo Colon was acquired to also give rotation depth.

Roster Weakness
Inexperience. Not only with all the rookies mentioned above, but with Smith and Cespedes as well. While Smith is a veteran, this will be his first tour of duty in the American League. Cespedes has played 8 years in the Cuban National Series and has played in several international leagues too including the 2009 World Baseball Classic and the Dominican Winter League prior to his signing. However, he’s faced very minimal major league quality pitching. Other starting position players, Josh Reddick (403 PA), Scott Sizemore (592 PA) and Jemile Weeks (437 PA) have very limited ML experience. The trio of rookies in the starting rotation, Parker, Peacock and Milone, have combined a little over 43 ML innings. This inexperience is going to show as these players will have their ups and downs (and some cases literally as they bounce between AAA and MLB).

2012 Outlook
The Athletics are going to put a talented ball club on the field in 2012. The question remains, though, how much of this talent is going to show in the boxscore as these players are adjusting. There are going to be moments where everything clicks for them and then there are going to be some growing pains. These growing pains are going to prevent the Athletics from competing this year. However, there’s a good foundation in place that can make the Athletics relevant again in 3-5 years.

ZiPS projects Seth Smith as the Athletics best hitter at 97 OPS+. That’s right, not one player on the A’s roster is projected to be above average according to ZiPS (to be fair, they didn’t give a projection to Yoenis Cespedes). The pitching side is kinder as they have Brett Anderson (3.78 ERA, 107 ERA+), Brandon MCarthy (3.81 ERA, 107 ERA+), Dallas Braden (3.88 ERA, 105 ERA+) and Tom Milone (4.02 ERA, 101 ERA+) as being above average. For the relievers, Joey Devine and Grant Balfour come out on top, almost with duplicating results. Devine has been projected with a 3.57 ERA and 114 ERA+, Balfour with a 3.60 ERA and 113 ERA+. This should give an idea of who should get the most save opportunities.

Potential Breakout Player

Scott Sizemore. Sizemore may not be the most talented hitter on the Athletics active roster, but he’s the most ready to have a breakout year. Twice Scott Sizemore was handed a starting spot with the Detroit Tigers and both times he flopped. He was unable to carry his minor league numbers (.308/.389/.500/.889, 17 HR, 21 SB in 2009 and .298/.378/.472/.850, 9 HR in 2010) to the majors. Then he got a new team and a new position and finally was able to have success at the ML level, hitting .249/.345/.433/.778, 11 HR, .343 wOBA, 118 wRC+ in 93 games with the A’s in 2011. At 27 years old, he is primed to build off of that success with a full year in 2012. ZiPS projects Sizemore to hit .247/.326/.383/.709, 12 HR, 9 SB in 2012. Given that Sizemore has always had a decent OBP, the .326 mark seems too low.

Jemile Weeks could potentially build off of his half-season with the A’s as well. He hit .303/.340/.421/.761, 22 SB in 97 games. However, it’s going to be hard to duplicate that .350 BABIP, so a little regression is likely. ZiPS is projecting .267/.318/.374/.692, 4 HR, 21 SB for 2011.

Potential Bust
Yoenis Cespedes. Cespedes is a talented athlete as depicted from his Youtube video. He’s quite a hitter too as he hit .333/.424/.667/1.091 with 33 HR in 90 games in his most recent season in the Cuban National Series. He tied Jose Dariel Abreu to lead the league in HR, breaking the 32 HR record set by Alfredo Despaigne. However, many scouts believe the Cuban league is about equivalent to AA. It’s hard for a player to jump right into MLB from AA and continue hitting. There is going to be an adjustment period, one that may require a trip to AAA. There’s little doubt that Cespedes will be able hit at the MLB. The question is when will he hit at the MLB level? That may not happen consistently in 2012.

Bonus Bust: Seth Smith. Smith has never played in the AL. He also had the benefit of playing in a hitter’s park. That is going to change for him in 2012. Smith has turned into a decent hitter; over the last three years he’s hit .275/.346/.487 with a 113 wRC+. However, he’s only hit .248/.326/.410 with an 87 wRC+ on the road over that same time span. Just like Cespedes, there’s going to be an adjustment period as Smith learns how to hit in the AL and the Coliseum is going to expose his weaker hitting away from hitter-friendly Coors Field. As mentioned earlier, Smith is projected to be the Athletics’ top hitter with a line of .245/.322/.408 with 12 HR and a 97 OPS+ in 2011.

Potential Prospects that can Contribute in 2012
Newly acquired starting pitchers Jarrod Parker, Brad Peacock and Tom Milone are all expected to log many innings at the major league level this year:


Jarrod Parker – Spent the entire year in AA last year, expect for 1 start at the ML level, going 5 2/3 IP, giving up 0 runs, 4 hits, 1 BB and 1 K. In AA he made 26 starts, 3.79 ERA, 3.70 FIP, 1.28 WHIP, 7.71 K/9, 3.79 BB/9. He didn’t pitch at all in 2010, recovering from Tommy John surgery. Luckily he had no setbacks in 2011. His best pitch is his sinker and he also has a plus slider (not used often after his surgery), an improved changeup and an occasional curveball. Baseball America ranks him at #26 in it’s top 100 prospects and his ceiling is top of the rotation starter.

Brad Peacock – Spending time in AA and AAA last year, Peacock had a 2.39 ERA, 2.63 FIP, 0.99 WHIP, 10.86 K/9, 2.88 BB/9 in 25 games (23 starts). In his limited 12 innings in the majors, he put up a great 0.75 ERA. He has 3 above average pitches, a low-90s fastball, a 12-6 curveball and a changeup. He is expected to be a #2 or #3 starter. Baseball America currently ranks Peacock at #36 in it’s top 100 prospects.

Tom Milone – In AAA last year, he had a 3.22 ERA, 2.24 FIP, 1.03 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, 0.97 BB/9 in 24 starts. He then made 5 starts for the Nationals, 3.81 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 5.19 K/9, 1.38 BB/9. He has a below average fastball, however his changeup is outstanding and given his BB rate, his command is exceptional. His breaking ball still needs development. Unlike Peacock and Parker, he isn’t rated among Baseball America’s top 100 prospects.

First baseman Chris Carter – Cater has shown tremendous power in the minor leagues, hitting .278/.371/.544/.915 with 21 HR in 2011 and .258/.365/.529/.894 with 31 HR in 2010. However, that hasn’t been able to translate in the majors yet. Scouts are claiming that he’s purely focused on hitting home runs, which could result in a low batting average. Some scouts believe his skill set will not be able to translate to the big leagues.

Catcher Derek Norris – It’s probably going to take a trade of Kurt Suzuki but there’s a great possibility that Norris could become the everyday catcher by the end of the season. Norris spent the entire year at AA last year, hitting .210/.367/.446/.813 with 20 HR and 13 stolen bases. Norris is described as an offensive first catcher, which is worrisome given his .210 AVG. He swings and misses a lot, which will prevent him from having a high batting average. His high OBP is a plus and when he does make contact, he makes some damage as evidence of his SLG. Defensively, he still needs some work, but it has improved.

Predictions
Projected Record: 70-92
Projected Finish: 3rd Place
Projected MVP: Brandon McCarthy (around 3.5-4.0 WAR)

Final Thoughts
Dionne Warwick wants to know the way to San Jose and so do the Athletics. The Athletics have tried to get a new stadium for years now and one possibility is to relocate to San Jose. The problem – the Giants are claiming that territory as their own. A’s owner Lew Wolff is still awaiting approval by MLB to relocate there. If the A’s are able to get a new stadium built in San Jose, they can potentially generate more revenue than they are now which could lead to a bigger payroll. A bigger payroll would mean that the A’s could bring in complementary players to go along with their current youth of players and start competing once again (and potentially prevent another possible firesale).

The Athletics have a lot of prospects that will help this year, but they have even more talent in the minors that’s expected to contribute in the following 1-2 years. SP A.J. Cole is currently ranked #57 by Baseball America (ETA: 2014), SP Sonny Gray, ranked #65 (ETA: 2013) and OF Michael Choice, ranked #80 (ETA: 2013). It should be fun being an A’s fan over the next few years, even if it doesn’t yield immediate results, especially if they are able to relocate to San Jose.

Season Previews, Part 8: Pittsburgh Pirates

2011 Record: 72-90
Pythagorean Record: 70-92
Games out of first: 24

Top Performers by WAR (rWAR for hitters, fWAR for pitchers):
1. Andrew McCutchen, 5.5
2. Neil Walker, 2.5
3. Charlie Morton, 2.2
4. Paul Maholm, 2.1
5. Joel Hanrahan, 2.0

2011 Recap
It must be hard being a Pittsburgh Pirates fan over the last 20 years; however the Pirates gave some hope in 2011. The Pirates found themselves competing in mid-summer and were in first place as late as July 19th with a record of 49-46. That’s the latest in the season they’ve been in first place since 1997. They were buyers at the trade deadline, trading for Ryan Ludwick and Derrek Lee. But it was only false hope as they finished the season going 21-46 since July 19th and suffered their 19th consecutive losing season.

Bright Spots

Andrew McCutchen, .259/.364/.456/.820 with 23 HR and 23 SB. McCutchen is one of the best centerfielders in the National League (probably 2nd only to Matt Kemp). At only 25 years old, he could get even better. ZiPS is projecting a line of .274/.361/.455/.816 with 19 HR and 28 SB for McCuthen in 2012.
Joel Hanrahan, 1.83 ERA, 2.18 FIP, 8.00 K/9, 2.10 BB/9, 1.05 WHIP, 40 saves. Hanrahan became one of the elite closers in 2011, even earning an all-star selection. Look for him to continue to be a top closer in 2012, although with a regression to ERA. ZiPS projects him to have a 3.17 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 9.78 K/9, 3.03 BB/9 and a 122 ERA+ for 2012.

Bad Spots
While most of the Pirates’ players regressed back to their career norms as the season progressed, one particular player is worth highlighting. In 2010, Pedro Alvarez looked like he would be someone special for the future Pirates. In 95 games he hit .256/.326/.461/.788, 16 HR. At 23 years old, things looked bright for the young kid. However, in 2011, he took a big step back (some call it the dreaded “sophomore slump”). He only hit .191/.272/.289/.561, 4 HR in 74 ML games. He was suffering injuries last year to his quad, but that doesn’t fully explain his significant drop in numbers. Alvarez is going to have to work hard at getting back to his 2010 form if he’s going to be a part of the Pirates’ future. ZiPS projects a line of .245/.323/.447 with 24 HR for Alvarez in 2012. (That might be a little too optimistic).

Offseason Overview
The Pirates are in a rebuilding year in 2012 (what else is new?). Players are being shifted, rookies are going to be played and stopgaps are going to fill in until new rookies are ready. Garrett Jones is moving full-time to 1B, Jose Tabata gets moved to RF and Alex Presley will play LF full time. Veterans Rod Barajas and Clint Barmes were bought in to play catcher and shortstop, respectively. Starting pitchers Erik Bedard and A.J. Burnett were acquired to “stabilize” the rotation.

Notable Additions:
SP A.J. Burnett
SP Erik Bedard
SS Clint Barmes
C Rod Barajas
3B Casey McGehee
OF Nate McLouth

Notable Subtractions:
C Ryan Doumit
OF Ryan Ludwick
1B Derrek Lee
SP Paul Maholm
SS Ronny Cedeno
3B Brandon Wood

Projected Starting Lineup:
RF Jose Tabata
LF Alex Presley
CF Andrew McCutchen
2B Neil Walker
1B Garrett Jones
3B Pedro Alvarez
SS Clint Barmes
C Rod Barajas
Pitcher’s Spot

Projected Rotation:
RHP A.J. Burnett
LHP Erik Bedard
RHP James McDonald
RHP Jeff Karstens
RHP Charlie Morton/RHP Kevin Correia

Key Bench/Bullpen:
CL Joel Hanrahan
C Michael McKenry
3B/1B Casey McGehee
INF Chase d’Arnaud
INF Josh Harrson
OF Nate McLouth

2012 Outlook
There just isn’t much hope for the Pirates this year as it has been for the last 19 years. Andrew McCutchen is a great player to build around with and the Pirates have some players like Presley, Walker, Tabata and Alvarez that could build a good foundation. However, they are surrounding those guys with the likes of Clint Barmes and Rod Barajas, mere castoffs that won’t provide much more than using minor leaguers, expect for their veteran leadership. The offense that scored 3.77 runs/game last year only looks marginally better this year.

The rotation is probably even worse off than the offense. ZiPS only projects Erik Bedard to be above average, predicting an ERA+ of 104 (3.72 ERA), and he hasn’t been able to stay healthy (although he did provide 24 starts to the Mariners and Red Sox last year). ZiPS only projects 77 1/3 IP from Bedard in 2012 (15 starts). The other two guaranteed spots in the rotation, McDonald and Burnett are projected from ZiPS to have ERAs of 4.27 and 5.31*, respectively. The other rotation candidates have Morton at 4.09 ERA, Karstens at 4.27 ERA and Correia at 5.00 ERA. Add it up, and that’s an ERA of 4.59 for the six starters, which is worse than the 4.21 ERA they got last year from the rotation. There isn’t much help from the minors either.


*It should be noted that that projection for Burnett was when he was with the Yankees. It most certainly will be lower now that he doesn’t have to face the DH. Also, Burnett gives the Pirates one thing, innings. The Pirates haven’t had anyone pitch 200 innings since 2009 (Zach Duke) and Burnett has averaged about 195 innings/year over the last 3 years. This is important as the Pirates won’t be forced to bring up a prospect too soon to pitch those innings. Also, Burnett’s xFIP was 3.86 in 2011, suggesting that it could be lower than 4.00 in 2012, given the right environment. The NL is a good place to start.

There isn’t much going as far as backups and minor leaguers in case things go sour. Casey McGehee could overtake either 3B or 1B if Alvarez repeats last year or if Jones doesn’t pan out at 1B although he’s been very inconsistent. d’Arnaud could see some time at SS, but he hasn’t shown to be better than Barmes. McLouth has also been very inconsistent in his ML career and Marte would just be a rookie. Barajas’ backup, Michael McKenry, only hit .222/.276/.322/.598 last (although given his minor league line of .265/.357/.453, he should improve).

Brad Lincoln and Kyle McPherson are almost certainly going to see some starts in the rotation with the injury concerns of Bedard and inconsistency of the others. However, neither of them are anything special.

Potential Breakout Player
Alex Presley found himself as the starting leftfielder by the end of June last year (although he missed a month with a thumb injury). He responded by hitting .298/.339/.465/.804 with 4 HR in 52 games after hitting .333/.388/.485/.873 at AAA. The year before, he hit .320/.373/.494/.867, splitting time between AA and AAA. This year he’s being handed the starting LF job and at 26 years old, he’s primed to have a big breakout year. ZiPS projects a hitting line of .275/.324/.426/.750 with 12 HR this year – and could possibly be better.

Potential Bust
Rod Barajas. Rod Barajas has never started more than 125 games in his career and has started a shade under 100 games each of the last 2 years. He’ll be 36 years old, so to expect more of a workload out of him in 2012 is a bit unrealistic. He has always been a below-average offensive player (he’s never had 100+ wRC+). He was able to have a wRC+ in the 90s the last 2 years (92 wRC+ in 2010 and 94 wRC+ in 2-11). However, it looks like any year now the bottom is going to fall out and he’ll contribute negative value as his defense will surely go south with age. ZiPS is projecting a line of .251/.291/.440/.731 with 15 HR. A bit optimistic.

Potential Prospects that can Contribute in 2012
Outfielder Starling Marte. Marte only played at AA last year, but hit, hit and hit some more. His line was .332/.370/.500 with 12 HR and 24 SB. He doesn’t have much plate discipline as he doesn’t draw a lot of walks and he may not hit for much power, however he has very good bat speed and contact ability to possibly overcome that. He should start the year in AAA, but should be one the first call-ups if injury strikes the OF.

Starting pitcher Kyle McPherson. McPherson pitched in high-A ball and AA last year, 2.96 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 7.9 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9, 3.01 FIP. His ceiling probably isn’t much more than a back-end starter, but his command is there as shown in his BB rate. He’ll likely start the year at AAA, but should get some starts given the injury-prone Bedard and weak back-end pitching after him. ZiPS has him projected as pitching 132 2/3 IP with a 4.82 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 6.24 K/9 and 2.71 BB/9. Innings seems a bit high.

Predictions
Projected Record: 75-87
Projected Finish: 4th Place
Projected MVP: Andrew McCutchen (Around 5.5-6.0 WAR)

Final Thoughts
Some give hope for the Pirates this year as sluggers Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols are no longer in NL Central. Ryan Braun also would have to serve his suspension. However, the Pirates are likely to settle to below average, just as they did last year when it’s all said and done. The talent level just isn’t as high as it is in the top teams in the NL Central, mainly the Cardinals and Reds.

The minor league players to keep an eye on are starting pitchers Jameson Taillon, Gerrit Cole and outfielder Josh Bell. If the Pirates are able to hang on to Andrew McCutchen, the future looks promising with these upcoming players. However, if the Pirates let McCutchen go along with their other key players, then they are just going to continue to replace good young talent with other good young talent without surrounding them with good veteran talent – a formula that just doesn’t work. It’s a vicious cycle that’s been going on for nearly 20 years.