Season Previews, Part 30: Philadelphia Phillies

2011 Record: 102-60
Pythagorean Record: 103-59
Won Division

Top Performers by WAR (rWAR for hitters, fWAR for pitchers):
1. Roy Halladay, 8.2
2. Cliff Lee, 6.7
3. Shane Victorino, 5.1
4. Cole Hamels, 4.9
5. Jimmy Rollins, 3.7

2011 Recap
The Phillies were projected to be very competitive in 2011 – and that’s exactly what happened. They easily won the NL East with the best record in all of baseball and were the only team to win over 100 games at 102-60. They had the best pitching in all of baseball according to fWAR (27.5) that was led by Roy Halladay (2.35 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 2.46 FIP), Cliff Lee (2.68 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 3.10 FIP) and Cole Hamels (3.02 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 2.99 FIP). Vance Worley was a nice surprise after Joe Blanton went down due to an injury to his elbow (in 25 games, 3.01 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 3.32 FIP).

The offensive side wasn’t as good as it was in 2010 as they had to deal with the loss of Jayson Werth and an aging core of players. They went from being one of the best in 2010 to slightly above average in2011, scoring 4.40 R/G. League average hit .253/.319/.391/.710; the Phillies hit .253/.323/.395/.717. They received a spike in offense after acquiring Hunter Pence at the deadline as he went on to hit .324/.394/.560/.954 with 11 HR and 35 RBI in 54 games with the Phillies. Shane Victorino broke out by having his best year as he hit .279/.355/.491/.847, 135 wRC+.

The Phillies were an easy favorite to advance far in the playoffs, but were booted by a hot Cardinals team in 5 games in the NLDS.

Offseason Overview
The Phillies were pretty quiet this off-season as they only needed tweaking. They resigned Jimmy Rollins, signed closer Jonathan Papelbon to replace the departed Ryan Madson and then added players for depth. Roy Oswalt and Raul Ibanez are going to be replaced internally. Ryan Howard will be on the DL until at least May and maybe longer as he suffered a setback from his ankle injury by getting an infection. Newcomer Ty Wigginton is projected to get most of the AB at 1B, but Jim Thome and John Mayberry will also see some time there. Chad Qualls was acquired to strengthen the bullpen and Laynce Nix to strengthen the bench. Dontrelle Willis was signed for God knows why. SP Joel Pineiro, OF Juan Pierre and OF Scott Podsednik were signed to minor league contracts to add depth.

Notable Additions:
CL Jonathan Papelbon
1B Jim Thome
1B/3B Ty Wigginton
RP Chad Qualls

Notable Subtractions:
SP Roy Oswalt
CL Ryan Madson
LF Raul Ibanez

Projected Starting Lineup:
Right-handed:
SS Jimmy Rollins
3B Placido Polanco
2B Chase Utley
RF Hunter Pence
CF Shane Victorino
LF John Mayberry
1B Ty Wigginton
C Carlos Ruiz
Pitcher’s Spot

Left-handed:
SS Jimmy Rollins
3B Placido Polanco
2B Chase Utley
RF Hunter Pence
CF Shane Victorino
1B John Mayberry
LF Lance Nix
C Carlos Ruiz
Pitcher’s Spot

The Phillies are already without Ryan Howard until at least May. Chase Utley and Placido Polanco are an injury concerns. Utley hasn’t even played a game after 2 weeks into ST yet. Freddy Galvis has been playing 2B in his absence, so he might be the one to take over that position if Utley has to go on the DL at any point during the season. Wigginton can move over to 3B in case Polanco has to miss some time, but there’s also Michael Martinez that can fill in. Once highly touted prospect Domonic Brown has yet to translate his minor league success in the majors will compete for playing time in LF (but is due to start the year in AAA). In other words, there’s going to be a lot of mix and matching with the offense.

Projected Rotation:
RHP Roy Halladay
LHP Cliff Lee
LHP Cole Hamels
RHP Vance Worley
RHP Joe Blanton

One of, if not the best, pitching rotations in all of baseball will remain pretty much the same as last year. Roy Oswalt is gone and in his place is the now healthy Joe Blanton. Kyle Kendrick, who has started 98 games since 2007, is scheduled to be in the bullpen but can be moved to the rotation in case of an injury.

Key Bench/Bullpen:
1B Jim Thome
OF Domonic Brown
INF Michael Martinez
CL Jonathan Papelbon
SU Antonio Bastardo

Roster Strength

The starting rotation. Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels are all good enough to be aces on multiple teams, but it was the emergence of Vance Worley that makes it that much stronger. Worley had a great rookie year and there’s reason to believe that he can keep it up. He had a 3.32 FIP, 3.66 xFIP, 8.13 K/9, 3.14 BB/9. The 78.2% LOB% suggests a little bit of luck in stranding runners, but given his age of only 24, he can easily bank on the success of 2011 when going forward. His BABIP of .283 is completely normal and shows no signs of luck.

Some numbers over the last 3 years:
Halladay – 2.53 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 2.84 FIP, 8.05 K/9, 1.24 BB/9
Lee – 3.13 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 3.16 FIP, 8.03 K/9, 1.37 BB/9
Hamels – 3.36 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 3.47 FIP, 8.34 K/9, 2.15 BB/9

Roster Weakness

An aging offense with injury concerns. As mentioned earlier, the Phillies are going to have to mix and match with some of their players, namely at 1B, 2B and possibly 3B. Only Hunter Pence and John Mayberry will be on the good side of 30 from the projected starting lineup. An offense that was only average last year might have to work harder in 2012 to remain average.

2012 Outlook
The NL East got a lot stronger in 2012, mainly with the Marlins and Nationals. The Braves were the Phillies biggest threat in 2011 and are projected to be in the thick of race again in 2012. The Phillies probably won’t win the division as easily as they did in 2011. However, their starting pitching should be strong enough to carry them to a division title, even if their offense isn’t as good as it was last year.

Potential Breakout Player
John Mayberry. Most of this Phillies team is already pretty well established. John Mayberry is one of the few players that has limited ML experience. At 27 years old in 2011, he was pretty old for someone to just be getting extended playing time, but he responded well, hitting .273/.341/.513/.854. With both LF and 1B in question, Mayberry will be getting plenty of opportunity to show that he can duplicate those numbers over a full season. The good news is that at 28, he’s right in his prime. However, the flip side of that is that he’s likely not going to get any better than he is right now. His .293 BABIP shows that his 2011 numbers can easily be repeated.

Potential Bust
Placido Polanco. Polanco has been declining for the past 3-4 years now and has been battling injuries for the past 2 years. He hit .277/.335/.339/.674 last year in only 122 games. He’s definitely taking advantage of the hitter’s park he’s playing in; he had a 59 RC+ on the road last year while batting .238/.296/.272. At 36 years old, he’s likely going to continue to decline and if the injuries come back, he’s headed for an awful year.



Potential Prospects that can Contribute in 2012
Shortstop Freddy Galvis. Once thought to take over for Jimmy Rollins, Galvis’ main attribute is his great defense. His bat came around last year, between AA and AAA, he had a .716 OPS – the highest it’s ever been in the minors. He’s been playing 2B in Utley’s absence and he’s also learning 3B. With Rollins potentially signed for 4 more years, the Phillies are trying to make him a utility player.

Relief pitcher Phillippe Aumont. Aumont was moved to the bullpen permanently in 2011. Between AA and AAA, he had a 2.68 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 2.34 FIP. He has two plus pitchers, a mid-high 90s fastball and a curveball. He has an opportunity to make the team out of Spring Training, but he still has command and control issues, so he’ll probably start the year in AAA and get called up if an injury strikes the bullpen.

Predictions
Projected Record: 96-66
Projected Finish:1st Place
Projected MVP: Roy Halladay (around 7 WAR)

Final Thoughts
If everything comes together, the Phillies should continue their dynasty that they started in 2007. They are, however, getting older so that dynasty might be coming to an end pretty soon. The NL East is getting stronger and the Phillies are getting older. Their pitching staff should carry them, though if too many more injuries hit the Phillies, they will be on the outside looking in for the first time since 2006.

Season Previews, Part 29: New York Yankees

2011 Record: 97-65

Pythagorean Record: 101-61

Games out of first: N/A

2011 Recap

After finishing second in the tough AL East in 2010, the New York Yankees returned to their familiar position atop the standings. The Yankees ran away with the division for the first month of the season, as the Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays both got off to very slow starts. Both teams regained their composure and battled the Yankees for the title for the rest of the season. Until September. The Yankees began to run away with the division towards the end of August and kept on rolling while the Sox struggled and the Rays fell far enough behind to have to shift their focus to the Wild Card.

Robinson Cano continued to show why he is the star of this team. He hit .302/.346/.533 with 25 homers and 118 RBI, with a .290 ISO. Despite injury struggles, Alex Rodriguez managed to post a WAR over 4. His power numbers were very good, hitting 16 home runs in only 99 games, but injuries held back his true abilities. Russell Martin enjoyed a bounceback campaign behind the plate. Curtis Granderson had an MVP-caliber season, hitting 41 home runs while stealing 25 bases and driving in 119 runs. His average was only at .262, which is actually his highest since 2008, so there is room for improvement. Derek Jeter collected his 3000th career hit last season and improved on a sub-par 2010 but, like A-Rod, his time is almost up. Jorge Posada struggled in the DH spot and eventually called it quits at the end of the season and announced his retirement. Mark Teixeira contributed power-wse, hitting 39 homers, but only hit .248.

Pitching was...interesting, to say the least. CC Sabathia did his thing, winning 19 games with an ERA right at 3.00. Sabathia finished with 8.2 K/9, a 1.226 WHIP and a 0.64 HR/9 rate, very good in the new Yankee Stadium. Rookie Ivan Nova struggled out of the gate, but picked it up enough to earn Rookie of the Year consideration. Nova went 16-4 and, although his ERA was inflated from his early struggles, finished with very solid peripherals and a 0.71 HR/9 rate. AJ Burnett and Phil Hughes both had very below-average seasons. But bounceback campaigns from Bartolo Colon and Freddie Garcia more than made up for it. The bullpen was solid as always. Mariano Rivera savd 44 games with a 1.91 ERA. David Robertson emerged as a star. He had a 1.08 ERA and a 0.14 HR/9 rate.

Coming into the playoffs with the AL's best record, the Yankees were seen as favorites to win the pennant. But they were up against a very hot Detroit Tigers team. After Game 1 was suspended due to rain, the Yankees were suspected to have an edge because they would not have to face Justin Verlander twice. New York did win this game, but lost the next two. Down 2 games to 1, struggling pitcher AJ Burnett came up with his most clutch performance of the season, winning Game 4 and forcing a fifth deciding game. The Yankees could not score enough off of Detroit starter Doug Fister and ended the season right there.

Top Performers by WAR

1. CC Sabathia (7.1)

2. Curtis Granderson (7.0)

3. Robinson Cano (5.6)

4. Brett Gardner (5.1)

5. Alex Rodriguez (4.2)

Mark Teixeira (4.2)

Offseason Overview

The Yankees added a few key pieces this offseason. This was one of their quieter offseasons in recent years, electing to make a few cheaper moves instead of signing one big-money superstar. Perhaps the biggest move was the trade of future star Jesus Montero to Seattle. New York could've used his young bat in their aging lineup, but they acquired Michael Pineda, a young pitcher with a very bright future, and minor league pitcher Jose Campos. New York also picked up Cesar Cabral from the Rule 5 draft, and signed Hiroki Kuroda to take Colon's place in the rotation. They also signed Raul Ibanez to take the DH spot, vacated by the trade of Montero and Jorge Posada's retirement. AJ Burnett was traded to Pittsburgh for two low level prospects, Hector Noesi went to Seattle with Montero, and Ayala and Marte were both not resigned.

Notable Additions

SP Michael Pineda

P Jorge Campos

DH Raul Ibanez

SP Hiroki Kuroda

RP Cesar Cabral

Notable Losses

C/1B/DH Jesus Montero

C/DH Jorge Posada

SP AJ Burnett

P Hector Noesi

SP Sergio Mitre

RP Luis Ayala

SP Bartolo Colon

RP Damaso Marte

Projected Lineup

SS Derek Jeter

CF Curtis Granderson

2B Robinson Cano

3B Alex Rodriguez

1B Mark Teixeira

RF Nick Swisher

DH Raul Ibanez

C Russell Martin

LF Brett Gardner

Jeter and Rodriguez return for another season. Both are aging and A-Rod has had injury troubles, so decline from both will not be shocking. Granderson will almost certainly regress, as he outperformed his career averages by way too high a mark last season. Cano will continue to be the new face of the franchise, he will fade in as Jeter fades out. Teixeira hit for a lot of power last season, but his average was much lower than usual. Swisher has become another solid hitter after struggling average wise in his first few years in New York, but has been improving. Ibanez is also aging but will get a chance to produce without having to waste his legs running around the outfield. Martin will look to continue his bounceback from a season ago. Gardner will need to get his average up and potentially add a little power, but his speed makes up for the lack of power. When his average goes up, so will his chances to steal bases.

Defensively, the outfield is very good. The right side of the infield has injury concern, but Eduardo Nunez is a serviceable fill-in. Cano and Teixiera are both very good, while Martin is a good enough backstop.

Projected Rotation

CC Sabathia

Hiroki Kuroda

Michael Pineda

Ivan Nova

Phil Hughes

Barring some strange occurence, Sabathia will once again be the ace of this staff. Kuroda didn't have much luck with wins last season, but his 3.07 ERA sent his free agency value very high. He will have to keep his homerun rate down in hitter friendly Yankee Stadium, though. Pineda started off hot last season and was a Rookie of the Year favorite (didn't win), but moving to a hitter's park might not help him as much as it will hurt him. Nova will need to show that he can consistantly do what he did last season and any improvements from Hughes will be helpful.

Significant Relievers/Reserve Players

CL Mariano Rivera

RP David Robertson

OF Andruw Jones

Roster Strengths

Offense. The Yankees have tons of power in their lineup, and a pretty good balance of average and speed as well. The one question mark is how long their aging veterans can keep it up, but Cano, Teixeira, Gardner, and Swisher have plenty left in them.

Roster Weaknesses

Pitching depth. If an injury occurs, either a very young pitcher or someone from the bullpen will have to step into the rotation. The depth in the rotation is solid, but there are not many options if something goes awry. It isn't as big a concern as last season, but still a weakness.

2012 Outlook

The Yankees have three teams to compete with in 2012, but they have a slight edge due to the balance in their lineup. With the new Wild Card rules, its almost certain that the Yankees will get one of the playoff spots. They are still the front-runners in the toughest division in baseball though.

Potential Breakout Player

Brett Gardner.

Now, how could a player with the third highest WAR of any hitter on his team still be considered a potential breakout? Gardner is severely undervalued. Even with his high stolen base numbers last season, he is still off of many people's radars. Gardner plays exceptional defense, but will need to work on bringing his average (which will also bring plenty more stolen base attempts) up to fulfill his potential and get on the radars he is sliding past.

Potential Bust

Curtis Granderson overperformed last year. By quite a bit. It is very unlikely that Granderson retains the power stroke he had. His average was low and his speed was not on par with what it was in previous season. Do not expect a repeat of 2011 from Granderson.

Prospects with Potential to Contribute

C Gary Sanchez: Sanchez has plenty of power, but plays poor defense behind the plate. He will be first in line to step in if Martin struggles, as he has a much higher offensive ability then backup catcher Francisco Cervelli.

SP Dellin Betances: Betances is next in line to emerge into New York's rotation. He has very good stuff, but his control needs work. With a little more development, Betances could be a very good top of the rotation starter, but he will be called up if necessary.

Predictions

Record: 96-66

Finish: 1st

MVP: Robinson Cano (6.0)

Final Thoughts

The Yankees won't have much to complain about. They have plenty of good prospects and some of the best players in the game, so unless there is a complete meltdown, they have pretty much locked up a playoff spot already.

Season Previews, Part 9: Miami Marlins

Miami Marlins
2011 Record: 72-90
Pythag Record: 72-90
Games out of First: 30 games

2011 Recap:

The Miami Marlins had a very disappointing season in 2011, mostly due to some key injuries and underperformances from their stars. The Fish were 23rd in runs scored with a very bad 625 mark due in part to their star SS Hanley Ramirez having the worst season of his career. Pitching wise, the Marlins were better coming in at 15th in runs allowed (702) and ERA (3.95). The main problem with Miami’s pitching staff was the loss of star SP Josh Johnson to injury. In the 60 IP before his injury, JJ had a stellar 1.64 ERA and a 3.32 xFIP. His injury clearly cost the Marlins quite a lot during the last 2/3 of the season. Two of the main bright spots for the Marlins season were rookie Mike Stanton and young starter Anibal Sanchez. Stanton slugged an impressed 34 home runs with an excellent .894 OPS and Sanchez pitched to a very strong 3.62 ERA and an even more impressive 3.25 xFIP with over 200 strikeouts.

Top 5 Performers by WAR:

1. Mike Stanton, 5.7 WAR
2. Anibal Sanchez, 3.8 WAR
3. Ricky Nolasco, 3.5 WAR
4. Omar Infante, 3.4 WAR
5. Javier Vazquez, 3.2 WAR

OffSeason Overview:

The Marlins made a huge splash in the 2012 offseason. A team that is usually pretty quiet in offseason made multiple huge deals that had baseball talking for months. The moves started very early on in the offseason, when the Fish traded Osvaldo Martinez and Jhan Marinez for manager Ozzie Guillen on September 27th. Once they had their manager in place, the Marlins moved to free agency to fill the rest of their holes. The first major free agent that the Marlins signed was closer Heath Bell who they inked to a 3year, $27M contract on December 2nd. The deal also has a vesting option for a 4th year for the same amount of money. Next, the Marlins upped the ante, signed star SS Jose Reyes to a very big 6 year, $106M deal on December 6th, a few days after the Bell deal. But the Marlins weren’t done yet. After committing $142M to the first two players, the Marlins made another big deal, signing SP Mark Buehrle to a 4 year deal worth $58M. All three deals combined, including the vesting option on Bell, the Marlins committed exactly $200M to the three big free agents in 2012. While many people are of the opinions that the Marlins greatly overpaid for these players, especially Bell and Buehrle, there is almost no argument that it’s nice to see a small market team such as this spending so much money in one offseason.

Notable Additions:

Jose Reyes
Health Bell
Mark Buehrle
Ozzie Guillen
Carlos Zambrano

Notable Subtractions:

Javier Vazquez
Osvaldo Martinez
Jhan Marinez
Mike Cameron

Projected Lineup:

SS Jose Reyes
CF Emilio Bonifacio
3B Hanley Ramirez
RF Mike Stanton
LF Logan Morrison
1B Gaby Sanchez
C John Buck
2B Omar Infante

This is a very strong lineup, especially for a team who hit poorly in 2011. The addition of Jose Reyes at the top is huge for the Marlins as he can hopefully get the offense going and get on base for Hanley and Stanton. Hanley should rebound greatly in 2012, as he went from being a stud offensive player to an average offensive SS in 2011. Finally, the young kids in Mike Stanton and Logan Morrison should all improve on their 2011 seasons. Stanton especially could realistically be looking at a 40+ HR, .900+ OPS season for the Miami Marlins. If Stanton progresses as expected, Hanley bounces back and Reyes does what he was signed to, the Marlins could be scary offensively in 2012.

Projected Rotation:

Josh Johnson
Anibal Sanchez
Mark Buehrle
Ricky Nolasco
Carlos Zambrano

This rotation is very strong, with the potential to be one of the best in baseball. Josh Johnson is one of the best pitchers in baseball and is healthy so far as we near the start of the 2012 season. Anibal Sanchez broke out last year as a very good pitcher and assuming he doesn’t take a step back, he should be one of the better #2 starters in the game. Mark Buehlre and Carlos Zambrano don’t have much star power anymore, but they should be reliable contributors and give the Marlins solid performances in the #3 and #5 spots of their rotation. That leaves Ricky Nolasco who, for me, is the Wild Card of the Marlins rotation. I have always been a fan of Nolasco who has great stuff and has always had great peripherals (as evidenced by his 3.5 WAR in 2011). However, the conventional stats have not backed that up so far in his career and he has continuously failed to put up even mediocre ERA’s. This is mostly due to the amount of hard hit balls he gives up, with a very poor 23% Line Drive% in 2011. If Nolasco can improve in that aspect in 2012, he could very easily end up as the Marlins 2nd or 3rd starter and join JJ and Sanchez in what has the potential to be a star studded top of the rotation.

Significant Relievers/Bench Players:

Health Bell
Edward Mujica
Matt Dominguez
Scott Cousins
Chris Coughlan

Roster Strength:

Pitching: I like the offense of this team, but the pitching is the stronger aspect for the Marlins. They have a very deep rotation with Johnson, Sanchez, Buehrle, Nolasco and Zambrano, 5 pitchers who have the ability to succeed and with the addition of Heath Bell, their bullpen is good too. Bell is joined by Edward Mujica, Randy Choate and Michael Dunn in the bullpen, a nice collection of arms. While there are some holes in their offense (catcher, center field, second base), I see no such holes in their pitching. I expect it to do very well in 2012.

Roster Weakness:

Durability: To be honest, I cannot see any real weakness on this team. It is extremely well rounded. They have a good offense, good starting pitching, a good bullpen and a solid enough defense. The aspect of the game that I could see hurting this team the most is durability. Two of their best players, Josh Johnson and Jose Reyes, missed significant time in 2011 to injuries. There’s a very real chance that one of them could go down again and if that were to happen, the Marlins could be in some trouble.

2012 Outlook:

I think the Marlins have a chance to be very successful in 2012. They have a good offense, a good pitching staff, a solid defense and some young pitchers who should improve with experience. If Josh Johnson and Jose Reyes can stay healthy, the Marlins should be able to easily contend this season. Unfortunately for them, they are in an excellent division with three other very good teams in the Phillies, Braves and Nats, so a playoff berth is far from a guarantee. However, the team has done what it needs to to keep Miami in the race for the long haul.
Potential Breakout Player:

Logan Morrison: One of the two young and talented corner outfielders for the Miami Marlins, LoMo had a solid season in 2011. He had 23 HR and a .797 OPS, quite good numbers for a rookie. However, he only hit .241, an area which should see great improvement in 2012. His .330 OBP should also improve in 2012. In LoMO can get his AVG and OBP up and can hit a few more HR’s, he could be a great contributor in the middle of that Marlins lineup in 2012. 

Potential Bust:

Mark Buehrle: A lot of people are expecting big things out of Mark Buehrle, mostly because there is a misguided impression around baseball that his “consistency” and “clutch performance” make him better than he actually is. That impression was compounded by the fact that the Marlins gave him much more money than he’s actually worth. The fact is, however, that Buehrle is simply a solid, slightly above average pitcher who’s getting older and could very well decline in 2012. I think there is a very good chance that he disappoints a lot of Marlins fans who expect him to be a great pitcher in the upcoming season.

Prospects with potential to help in 2012:

Matt Dominguez: The biggest problem for Matt Dominguez is going to be getting him playing time. With Infante, Hanley and Reyes in the infield, Dominguez is just a bench player entering the 2012 season. However, if any of those infielders goes down, Dominguez has the ability to really contribute for the Marlins. He has excellent defense in the infield and while his bat struggled in 2011, he has the potential to be a decent MLB hitter. At the very least, he’s great infield depth for the Miami Marlins.

Jose Ceda: Ceda is a young relief pitcher with extremely good stuff. In 39 IP in the minors in 2011, he struck out 53 batters with only 13 walks, a K/BB of about 4.00, and accompanied that with a stellar 1.36 ERA. He struggled a bit in the majors, but he only threw 20 major league innings and still showed good stuff with a K/9 over 9.00. Ceda will be a member of the bullpen on Opening Day and has the ability to make a real impact on that team in the 2012 season.

Predictions: 

Projected Record: 89-73
Projected Finish: 3rd Place
Projected MVP: Josh Johnson (6 WAR)

Final Thoughts:

The front office of the Miami Marlins did a very good job this offseason, taking a decent team
that was struggling in the shadow of the Braves and Phillies and turned it into a very good legitimate contender. While I personally feel that the Marlins will still fail to make the playoffs and end the season in third place, they will not be far behind and if a few things to their way, they could realistically win that division in 2012. The biggest question for the Fish in 2012 will be “Can they stay healthy?” If they can, the Johnson, Hanley, Reyes, Stanton, Morrison, Sanchez, Buehrle, Bell, Nolasco etc. will be very hard to beat.

Season Previews, Part 27, Milwaukee Brewers

2011 Record: 96-66
Pythagorean Record: 90-72
Won Division

2011 Recap

2011 was a great year in Milwaukee. GM Doug Melvin pulled no punches, acquiring starting pitchers Zack Grienke and Shaun Marcum to create one of the better rotations in baseball, making the Brewers an early favorite to take their division; which they did, posting the second-best SRS in the NL and winning the Central by six games over the Wild Card Cardinals (Wild Cardinals?).



The pitching, including co-ace Yovani Gollardo and a strong bullpen featuring young closer John Axford, Cameron Loe, a rejuvenated LaTroy Hawkins, and later erstwhile elite closer Fransisco Rodriguez, lived up to expectations, posting a 108 ERA+, aided in no small part by a rotation that made 155 of its starts, using just one other pitcher. The offense was solid as well, and while some players struggled, the heart of the order, consisting of Prince Fielder, MVP-winner Ryan Braun, Rickie Weeks, and Corey Hart, absolutely raked, combining for 117 home runs. Nyjer Morgan seems to have finally found a home, as his .357 OBP made him an effective leadoff option, and his antics made him a fan favorite. With this cast of characters, the Brew Crew made it to Game Six of the NLCS, losing to the eventual World Champion St. Louis Cardinals.

Top Performers by WAR

1. Ryan Braun (7.7)
2. Prince Fielder (5.2)
3. Corey Hart (4.0)
4. Zack Grienke (3.9)
5. Yovani Gallardo (3.1)

Offseason Overview

Not unlike the last preview I did, the Brewers' offseason was dominated by just a few names, one of them the Big Greasy himself, Prince Fielder. The Sultan of Sweat signed a mammoth 9-year, $214 MM deal with Detroit in the offseason, and the Brewers brought in veteran slugger Aramis Ramirez to replace some of his value. Ramirez will man third, previously held by Casey McGehee, who, after a poor 2011, was shipped to Pittsburgh for middle reliever Jose Veras. They also signed Alex Gonzalez, a gifted (if aging) shortstop with a few home runs in his bat, and as long as he shows up to the games, he should be an upgrade over Yuniesky Bentancourt. Other than that, it will largely be the 2011 Brewers again, but there was one other major story this offseason.

On December 10, ESPN reported that Braun had tested positive for an October 1 PED test. According to one source, his testosterone levels were "insanely high, the highest ever for anyone who has ever taken a test, twice the level of the highest test ever taken". Braun immediately denied and filed an appeal, which, on February 23, he won on a technicality, avoiding a 50-game suspension. Apparently, his sample had broken the chain of possession, being left either on a desk or in a refrigerator for a weekend, instead of being shipped directly to the testers in Montreal. This breached protocol, voiding the sample, despite the handler, Dino Laurenzi Jr, claiming he did not tamper with the sample and SI's David Epstein claiming that the sample was not even opened. Braun will get to play a full season in 2012, and will play under a cloud of suspicion for the rest of his career. For what it's worth, he has maintained innocence throughout the process.



Notable Additions

3B Aramis Ramirez
RP Jose Veras
OF Norichika Aoki

Notable Losses

1B Prince Fielder
3B Casey McGehee

Projected Lineup

2B Rickie Weeks
CF Nyjer Morgan
LF Ryan Braun
3B Aramis Ramirez
RF Corey Hart
1B Matt Gamel
SS Alex Gonzalez
_C Jonathan Lucroy

1-5 this lineup is as dangerous as any in the NL. There is power and discipline all over the top of the order, and even Gamel has some upside. The 26-year-old hasn't found his stride in MLB, but he has a career .886 OPS in 1247 Triple-A at-bats. Lucroy isn't Mike Piazza, but I like him as an offensive catcher just fine. I don't think this is an 850-run offense, but this team should have no problem putting up crooked numbers, and making no deficit safe.

Defensively, the squad is below average. The outfield is pretty good, especially when Carlos Gomez is in the lineup. The infield should be an adventure, as Gonzalez is probably the only plus defender of the four -- assuming he doesn't start showing his age (he's 35). Neither Lucroy or his backup, George Kottaras, are particularly adept behind the plate.

Projected Rotation

Yovani Gallardo
Zack Grienke
Shaun Marcum
Randy Wolf
Chris Narveson

Except for Philadelphia, it is hard to find a better 1-2-3 than Gallardo-Grienke-Marcum, who are all coming off of strong 2011 seasons. Randy Wolf is a veteran lefty who has averaged 34 starts and 208 innings of league-average ball over the last four years. He's one of the game's true innings-eaters. Narveson is a clear weak-point, but as a number 5 starter, Milwaukee will probably be thrilled to get starts and something resembling league-average pitching. Narveson in particular should be looking over his shoulder for top-prospect Wily Peralta, who is just looking for an opportunity.

Notable Reserve Players

CP John Axford
RP Kameron Loe
RP Fransisco Rodriguez
OF Carlos Gomez
_C George Kottaras
OF Norichika Aoki
IF Taylor Green

John Axford, the fighting pride of Simcoe, Ontario, is a member of an outstanding young class of relief pitchers in the league right now, along with Craig Kimbrel in Atlanta and Drew Storen in Washington. He had a great 2011 and even drew MVP votes. Kameron Loe, after years as a middling starter/swingman with Texas, has finally found a home in the bullpen, serving as a reliable middle-late reliever. Rodriguez is a couple years removed from being viewed as an elite closer, but that doesn't mean he isn't still very good: over the last two years he has a 159 ERA+ with a 10.2 K/9, and he closed off 2011 with a 1.86 ERA during his time with Milwaukee. People keep talking about him slowing down, but K-Rod just turned 30 in January. He'll be looking for a nice, quiet year of dominating hitters and staying out of headlines, and will hopefully field offers for a closing job next winter.

Gomez has never found whatever talent made him worth trading for Johan Santana, but he might be one of the best defensive outfielders in the league. I've always been a Kottaras fan (Boston and Canada connect, yo), and he is a pretty good offensive catcher who has been making strides defensively. Last fall the Brewers won the rights to Norichika Aoki with a bid of $2.5 MM to the Tokyo Yakult Swallows. Aoki, who I detailed and ran conversions on in November, is billed as 'the best pure hitter out of Japan since Ichiro', but he looks more like a useful fourth outfielder in the MLB. Green (another Canadian) was looking like a career minor leaguer before a huge 2011 in which he hit .336/.413/.583 in 120 games at Triple-A Nashville. It will be hard for him to prove himself as a bench player, but it should be interesting to see how much of that was a fluke.

Roster Strengths

I like the depth here. I count five potential starting outfielders, and six potential MLB starting pitchers. I think there is length in the bullpen, and strength in their bench. They are pretty well-rounded, with a powerful top of the lineup.



Roster Weaknesses

Lineup depth is the only knock I can find against the Brewers. Hopefully, the top of the order can score enough, and they should, but on nights where Braun and company don't hit, Gamel, Lucroy and Gonzalez will have a tough time stepping up.

2012 Outlook

I came into this article expecting to write about why the Brewers should take a step back in 2012. 'Oh, they lost Fielder, Aramis Ramirez is washed up, etc.' I was surprised to find, however, that this is not a bad-looking team. There is no reason that this team shouldn't compete to the wire in one of the game's weaker divisions. They have a farm that Keith Law ranked 23rd, featuring a couple of players that could help out in 2012. There isn't a ton of help on the way, but this is basically the 2011 club; and they did alright.

Potential Breakout Player

I'll go with Zack Grienke. I know, he's already been to the mountaintop, but a lot of people don't realize that he's never left, and that's why he'll raise some eyebrows this year. For the last two years his ERA has been about league average, and some people (weasel words) are already talking about his 2009 being a fluke. However, his peripherals have been very strong during this time, and in fact in 2011 he posted an xFIP of 2.56 and a SIERA of 2.66: Cy Young-caliber rates. He is only now coming into his prime at age 28. If he can get his end-result numbers to normalize in 2012, people should realize that he is still one of the elite pitchers in the league.

Potential Bust

'braun, cause he's off the juice lol'. No, in all seriousness, I trust Braun to go back to whatever system got him through all of the testing in the last six years. He'll be fine.

Top-Ten Prospects with Potential to Contribute

#1 Wily Peralta: I mentioned Peralta earlier, and he should get some starts with Milwaukee this summer. Peralta, the #56 prospect in baseball this year (by BA), has a mid-90s fastball with some run, and a plus slider. He has a career 8.6 K/9 in the minors, but also has struggled with his command. He could probably contribute as a starter, but I can also see him dominating in relief.



#6 Logan Schafer: Schafer is a pretty good center fielder who has hit at every level (career .301/.363/.427 MiL hitter), including a .922 OPS at Triple-A in 2011. He's 25, so the time for him to break in is now. He's pretty far down the depth chart with how many outfielders Milwaukee has, but he should be the first guy they call if one of them goes down.

#8 Tyler Green

Predictions

Record: 92-70
Finish: 1st, lose in NLDS
MVP: Ryan Braun (6.5)

Final Thoughts

The NL Central is in the bottom-three of the six divisions, so the Brewers have a chance here, even though the Cardinals are getting Wainwright back and Cincinnati is clearly going for it. Milwaukee, for my money, is still the best team in the division, but they will have their share of competition. The Brewers have drawn a lot of flak in the last year or so (after the Braun extension, one friend exclaimed "baseball in Milwaukee just died"), but you can't argue with success. Owner Mark Attanasio is showing a real commitment to winning and to fans of Wisconsin baseball, and despite the horrible, awful, almost illegal things Doug Melvin has done to his farm system, he puts a competitive team on the field -- and, to be honest, they had a good 2011 draft, and will have a bunch of compensation picks in the next two years. If they play their cards right, their farm could be stacked within 18 months. The gravy train will probably need to refuel at some point, but 2012, at least, should be a good year for the Crew.