Friday, April 15, 2011
Adrian Gonzalez Signs Extension
This is going to be a short one, I promise, guys. After weeks of speculation, the Red Sox, according to CSNNE's Sean McAdam via MLB Trade Rumors, have signed the long-expected deal to extend Adrian Gonzalez. Gonzalez was acquired in December from the Padres for a collection of elite Red Sox prospects, and, while an extension could not be made during the 48-hour window granted by MLB, Boston GM Theo Epstein felt that enough headway had been made in talks to pull the trigger.
The deal (7 years, $154 MM), is believed to have been in place for several weeks, possibly even since those December talks, but Boston was waiting until the season began so that only Gonzalez' 2011 salary ($5.5 MM) would count towards the luxury tax, instead of what would have been $20 MM if the deal had signed before opening day.
Gonzalez is a .288/.400/.530 hitter (Avg/OBP/SLG) over the past two seasons with a 157 OPS+ and a pair of Gold Gloves to his name.
The following is a brief breakdown of Gonzalez' value to the Red Sox:
Adrian Gonzalez is at this point a 6.5 win player per season. He's that good. If we assume he will put up a 6.5 WAR in 2011, and subtract 0.5 WAR each season for decline, here are his values per season for the future.
Year - (WAR)Monetary value of a win = Player value - salary = Red Sox savings
2012 - (6.0)5.25 = $31.5 MM - $22 MM = $10.5 MM
2013 - (5.5)5.51 = $30.3 MM - $22 MM = $8.3 MM
2014 - (5.0)5.69 = $28.5 MM - $22 MM = $6.5 MM
2015 - (4.5)6.08 = $27.4 MM - $22 MM = $5.4 MM
2016 - (4.0)6.30 = $25.2 MM - $22 MM = $3.2 MM
2017 - (3.5)6.60 = $23.1 MM - $22 MM = $1.1 MM
2018 - (3.0)6.93 = $20.8 MM - $22 MM = -$1.2 MM
In total, if Gonzalez stays healthy and maintains a decline normal for players of his caliber, the Red Sox signed a very good deal today.