Ah, it's the best time of the year! Free agency has opened, owners are opening (or reluctantly putting restraints on) their pocket books, and front offices are losing their minds trying to predict who will go where, for how much, and what impact the moves will have on the rest of the market. The national media is going to treat this year as a weaker free agent class than last year, but don't be fooled: there are several players at the top of this group who are misunderstood. As a result of this, there actually might be more free agency bargains on the market than there have been in the past few years. Don't anticipate any Pujolsian contracts, get ready for the "sleeper" teams, and be ready to lose your mind as your team is connected, then not connected, and then signs that key free agent. Without further ado, let's take a look at MLB Trade Rumors' predictions for their top 50 free agents and what I think of them (I'm going to throw in darkhorses on each player to get you thinking..I won't provide justification for those picks).
1. Zack Greinke, RHP
MLBTR Prediction: Angels
Wooly's Prediction: Angels
Wooly's Darkhorse: Braves
I believe it became clear in this past week that the Angels have one intention: sign Greinke at whatever the cost. They are not pursuing Torii Hunter, they have traded Ervin Santana, and they declined Dan Haren's 13.5 million dollar option in favor of his 3.5 million dollar buyout. Considering the apparent need to get a top arm to insert in the rotation behind Jered Weaver, I would not be shocked to see a Cain-like deal for Greinke. However, it should be noted that certain teams may be more cautious with Greinke because of his mixed end-results and his Social Anxiety Disorder and depression issues in the past.
2. Josh Hamilton, OF
MLBTR Prediction: Rangers
Wooly's Prediction: The "Sleeper" Team
Wooly's Darkhorse: Giants
If this were later in the free agency cycle, I would probably be more confident and actually try to choose a team. With Hamilton's recent statement of wanting 7 years and 175 million dollars in free agency, it has to be believed that several teams dropped out of the immediate race and that the market will push Hamilton to be one of the last free agents claimed. Looking at a few of his potential suitors, too much is dependent on other moves those teams can make. For example, if the Dodgers trade OF Andre Ethier to pull in a starter like James Shields, then the Dodgers will probably emerge as the top suitors for Hamilton's services. If the Nationals lose on Michael Bourn and B.J. Upton and find a way to move Michael Morse, then the Nationals could emerge as a candidate for the outfielder. With Hamilton's age, injury history, and personal troubles he appears to be the biggest high-risk, high-reward free agent.
3. Michael Bourn, CF
MLBTR Prediction: Nationals
Wooly's Prediction: Nationals
Wooly's Darkhorse: Phillies
It's a match made in heaven. The Nationals want a good defensive center fielder, a "true leadoff hitter", and another premium piece to help put them over the top. Some will doubt this prediction because of Harper's performance in center field this year, but I firmly believe he belongs in right field long term. Jayson Werth can then move over to left field, and the Nationals become a candidate to become a perennial 95+ win team. Part of the problem with this prediction could be that the Nationals will have to find a suitor for Michael Morse so that they could also spend money to bring back first baseman Adam LaRoche.
4. Anibal Sanchez, RHP
MLBTR Prediction: Tigers
Wooly's Prediction: Blue Jays
Wooly's Darkhorse: Red Sox
I want to be riskier and more fun with my predictions this year than I was last year. This starts with anticipating the Blue Jays finally making a move in free agency to get the kind of pitcher they like. The Blue Jays have stayed away in free agency in the past, and I believe that is partly due to the loss of draft picks that often comes with signing free agents. However, Sanchez won't cost his signing team a draft pick this year. Since Sanchez is 29, many are anticipating a 5 year deal, which falls into the 5 year policy the Blue Jays have on new contracts. The Jays have money, and I think this is the time when they finally start to show it and make a move in the AL East, especially after Ricky Romero's downfall this year and the Frankenstein-like operations that he's already undergone this off season.
5. B.J. Upton, CF
MLBTR Prediction: Phillies
Wooly's Prediction: Phillies
Wooly's Darkhorse: Diamondbacks
I think most can agree that the Rays aren't a real player for Upton. That being said, I don't believe the Dodgers, Nationals, Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Cubs, Mets, Angels, or any other possible big spenders are either. Ruben Amaro is likely feeling a lot of pressure from those around him (particularly ownership and the fans) to win before their current core of players is done. The Phillies don't have much of anything in center field, and Bossman Junior is likely to be a fit for the franchise.
6. Nick Swisher, RF/1B
MLBTR Prediction: Orioles
Wooly's Prediction: Mariners
Wooly's Darkhorse: Astros
Like I said before: ballsy predictions. For some reason, everyone thinks the Orioles are a great fit here. Well, I really don't see it. Markakis is in right field and there's no reason to move him. This means you either have to move Swisher to left field (no thanks) or first base. With Manny Machado's callup last year, third base either belongs to him or fellow shortstop J.J. Hardy. At first base, there are many options: Mark Reynolds and Adam LaRoche being the top candidates. Those options will be cheaper than Swisher, and they don't come with trying to move a player off of his natural position.
7. Edwin Jackson, RHP
MLBTR Prediction: Blue Jays
Wooly's Prediction: Twins
Wooly's Darkhorse: Yankees
Now that Scott Boras is out of the picture, I believe more teams will be in on Edwin Jackson. This is Jackson's best shot to get a multi-year deal, and the Twins are going to be aggressive in their pursuit of arms this off season. A young arm that can be signed for 12-15 million dollars AAV will allow just about every team that needs pitching to be in the race. Since he's seeking a multi-year deal, you can probably throw out rebuilding teams that will be looking to flip him for prospects on a one-year deal. The Twins likely believe that, with the offense they have assembled, they can become competitive while rebuilding at the same time. With a healthy Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, and Josh Willingham one has to wonder what the 2013 Twins could do.
8. Dan Haren, RHP
MLBTR Prediction: Padres
Wooly's Prediction: Rangers
Wooly's Darkhorse: Athletics
Personally I would not rank Haren this high. With how trade discussions went down at Haren's option deadline, I think it is very likely that Haren is dealing with some significant medical concerns. Due to this, I think he's going to sign a one-year deal in the 10 million dollar range. Rebuilding teams like the Padres, Cubs, and Mets will have significant interest in Haren if his medicals clear up. If he could show his health, then those teams would look to cash in on his previous elite performance at the deadline. However, if he does not, then he makes more sense for major contenders who need one last pitcher. Because of this information, I think Haren is likely a late free agent signing, and I think he has trouble showing his health before he signs.
9. Hiroki Kuroda, RHP
MLBTR Prediction: Yankees
Wooly's Prediction: Yankees
Wooly's Darkhorse: Angels
Any player that performs well for the Yankees is most likely to stay with the Yankees. Depending on how much Kuroda really likes LA, he could go back to the Dodgers. However, I think this one is about as much of a sure bet as you'll see this off season.
10. Kyle Lohse, RHP
MLBTR Prediction: Dodgers
Wooly's Prediction: Dodgers
Wooly's Darkhorse: Marlins
This is the one free agent I believe the Dodgers are most likely to pursue. For whatever reason, he just screams "future Dodger" to me. The Dodgers have a need for pitching and Lohse had some good end results last year.
11. Angel Pagan, CF
MLBTR Prediction: Giants
Wooly's Prediction: Giants
Wooly's Darkhorse: Mets
The Giants likely won't be active in free agency this off season. Because of that, I think they'll be aggressive early in keeping their own players. Angel Pagan is the headliner among their free agents, and I think they match his demands to guarantee a lock down on center field.
12. Shane Victorino, CF
MLBTR Prediction: Braves
Wooly's Prediction: Orioles
Wooly's Darkhorse: Reds
This is the first one where I whole-heartedly disagree with MLBTR. I don't understand why Atlanta would let Bourn walk and replace him with Victorino. Shane needs to prove himself again after a very disappointing 2012 campaign. Personally, I feel Victorino is a fill-in in the outfield for teams that don't have money, but he would likely be best suited as a fourth outfielder. Some think he could get as much as a 3 year deal, but I think a shorter deal that comes off as more as a flyer will be likely for Victorino.
13. David Ortiz: DH- Signed with the Boston Red Sox
14. Mike Napoli, C/DH
MLBTR Prediction: Astros
Wooly's Prediction: Rangers
Wooly's Darkhorses: Pirates
Napoli is one of the more interesting candidates here. Some teams may view him as a catcher and some may view him as a designated hitter. The likelihood of Napoli getting a multi-year deal seems low at this point considering how incredibly inconsistent he has been year-to-year. Napoli is not a strong defender at catcher and his stocky stature doesn't do him much for long-term projection. There are several American League teams that will be in on Napoli as a catcher or DH type, although he could slide in for teams like the Orioles and Rays at first base.
15. Adam LaRoche, 1B
MLBTR Prediction: Nationals
Wooly's Prediction: Nationals
Wooly's Darkhorse: Red Sox
My master plan for the Nationals has them retaining LaRoche and signing Bourn. This gives them good players at almost every single position. The Nationals likely feel as if they owe a lot to LaRoche after he came up big after the injuries to Jayson Werth and Wilson Ramos. I think this leads them to pay up for LaRoche and bring him back.
16. Ryan Dempster, RHP
MLBTR Prediction: Brewers
Wooly's Prediction: Dodgers
Wooly's Darkhorse: Cubs
Dempster was very picky at the deadline about where he wanted to go. It was stated firmly that the Dodgers were his first choice, and I think that he heads there in free agency. This gives the Dodgers Kyle Lohse and Ryan Dempster along with Kershaw and Billingsly.
17. Rafael Soriano, RHP (Closer)
MLBTR Prediction: Yankees
Wooly's Prediction: Tigers
Wooly's Darkhorse: Angels
The Yankees come off as an obvious choice because of what I said earlier, but Mariano Rivera is coming back and David Robertson is clearly the closer of the future. For my money, I feel that Soriano is going to go to a contender that will give him a multi-year deal and will let him be the closer without question. The Tigers had massive problems closing out games last year, and they gave into temptation last off season with Prince Fielder. I see them doing that again here.
18. Melky Cabrera, OF
MLBTR Prediction: Red Sox
Wooly's Prediction: Rays
Wooly's Darkhorse: Giants
To me, this is the kind of deal the Rays capitalize on. In all likelihood, the market will overreact to Cabrera's suspension for PED. This will drive Melky's price way down and will likely be a one-year deal where Cabrera seeks redemption for his wrongdoing. The Rays have needs in the outfield and at DH, so I wouldn't be surprised if they took care of this early in free agency.
19. Shaun Marcum, RHP
MLBTR Prediction: Cubs
Wooly's Prediction: Brewers
Wooly's Darkhorse: Blue Jays
I think Marcum stays in Milwaukee. The Brewers have the need, Marcum won't be of high cost, and it seems like an all-around fit. Marcum might be the most underrated pitcher on the market this off season, and Doug Melvin is smart enough to take advantage of that.
20. Torii Hunter, RF
MLBTR Prediction: Yankees
Wooly's Prediction: Yankees
Wooly's Darkhorse: Phillies
It's been reported that the Angels aren't bringing Hunter back, meaning that they'll give Vernon Wells and Peter Bourjos more time in the outfield. Hunter was on my list of the most underrated players in baseball, and many think he'll go for around 10 million on a short-term commitment. Perfect for a team like the Yankees that wants to fill a void in right field.
21. Russell Martin, C
MLBTR Prediction: Yankees
Wooly's Prediction: Yankees
Wooly's Darkhorse: Pirates
The Yankees supposedly offered Martin 3 years and 20 million dollars prior to the season on an extension, and it's nearly impossible to see anyone come close to matching that kind of money. Yankees are the choice here.
22. Cody Ross, OF
MLBTR Prediction: Red Sox
Wooly's Prediction: Red Sox
Wooly's Darkhorse: Orioles
There is just a ton of support in Boston for Ross to go back to the Red Sox. It doesn't seem like the price will be high, and it doesn't seem like anyone expects him to end up anywhere but Boston.
23. Marco Scutaro, 2B
MLBTR Prediction: Giants
Wooly's Prediction: Dodgers
Wooly's Darkhorse: Cardinals
The Dodgers need help at 2nd base, and this would allow them to run Hanley, Dee Gordon, Scutaro, and Adrian Gonzalez across the infield. Plus, it would make for a great storyline since Scutaro is being painted as one of the primary heroes of the Giants' postseason run. The Giants may offer overboard for him, but the Dodgers can offer even more.
24. Stephen Drew, SS
MLBTR Prediction: Red Sox
Wooly's Prediction: Athletics
Wooly's Darkhorse: Twins
Drew is going to be cheap and will come at good value. This is right up Billy Beane's ally. After moving Cliff Pennington, the A's have a need at shortstop and will likely fill it with Drew. I really don't understand the MLBTR prediction of Boston.
25. Joe Saunders, LHP
MLBTR Prediction: Orioles
Wooly's Prediction: Orioles
Wooly's Darkhorse: Blue Jays
The Orioles are a good fit for Saunders. They need pitching, but probably won't pay up for the top level guys. Knowing Duquette's past, he'll probably pay more for Saunders than just about anyone else.
26. Ryan Ludwick, LF
MLBTR Prediction: Reds
Wooly's Prediction: Astros
Wooly's Darkhorse: Rays
I like the Astros as a fit here. Ludwick will be cheap, probably won't seek more than a one-year deal, and ideally is a best fit at the role of DH. My money is on the Reds focusing on a trade for an outfielder like Denard Span and avoiding overspending on free agents.
27. Kevin Youkilis, 3B/1B
MLBTR Prediction: Phillies
Wooly's Prediction: Red Sox
Wooly's Darkhorse: White Sox
Youk was loved in Boston and was only traded away because Bobby Valentine wanted him gone (well, that's what I believe anyway). He'll be cheap, the Sox have holes at third and at first, and it should energize the fanbase. I like AL teams more for Youk, because he will have more time to split at 1B/DH than he would for a National League club.
28. Francisco Liriano, LHP
MLBTR Prediction: Red Sox
Wooly's Prediction: Cubs
Wooly's Darkhorse: Padres
This is a very interesting case. Liriano is almost certainly going to sign a one-year deal at a cheap price. This screams "sign him and flip him" to me. If he doesn't pan out, then he gets DFA'd and nobody blinks. If he does pan out, then he becomes a highly coveted piece at the deadline. As a left-handed starter, he would be in demand by almost every competitive team. Low-risk, massive reward deal for a guy that probably shouldn't be ranked #28 in this class.
29. Carlos Villanueva, RHP
MLBTR's Prediction: Royals
Wooly's Prediction: Royals
Wooly's Darkhorse: Indians
Alex Anthopoulos didn't seem to have the highest confidence in Villanueva when speaking about his durability. This leads me to believe he's headed elsewhere, and Kansas City makes sense.
30. A.J. Pierzynski, C
MLBTR's Prediction: Rangers
Wooly's Prediction: White Sox
Wooly's Dark Horse: Pirates
I don't see him signing with anyone else. He's loved by White Sox fans and had a great year. The ownership also loves him.
31. Joe Blanton, RHP
MLBTR's Prediction: Twins
Wooly's Prediction: Twins
Wooly's Darkhorse: Blue Jays
Blanton is a strike-thrower who is durable. This probably makes him a best fit somewhere like Target Field and away from the AL East and AL West. The Twins want reliable arms, and Blanton fits the bill.
32. Brandon McCarthy, RHP
MLBTR's Prediction: Athletics
Wooly's Prediction: Cubs
Wooly's Darkhorse: Angels
McCarthy is obviously risky, but he's a great pitcher. If he could be healthy for just a short while, he would either be a huge trade deadline target or a huge boost to a contender. I think all 5 AL West teams will take a look at McCarthy, but Theo really likes these kind of players. It makes sense for McCarthy to go to a rebuilding team.
From this point on, I will be providing just the predictions for most of the players rather than explanations.
33. Jason Grilli, RHP (Bullpen)
MLBTR's Prediction: Brewers
Wooly's Prediction: Brewers
Wooly's Darkhorse: Angels
34. Kyuji Fujikawa, RHP
MLBTR's Prediction: Angels
Wooly's Prediction: Brewers
Wooly's Darkhorse: Rangers
35. Koji Uehara, RHP
MLBTR's Prediction: Dodgers
Wooly's Prediction: Dodgers
Wooly's Darkhorse: Orioles
36. Ryan Madson, RHP
MLBTR's Prediction: Tigers
Wooly's Prediction: Marlins
Wooly's Darkhorse: Red Sox
Madson is a very interesting option because we know he can be an elite reliever. While he is still a Boras client, he is almost surely going to get a one-year deal and he almost surely will be seeking a closing role. The closing role is vacant in Miami and the Marlins won't have to spend much to get him.
37. Joakim Soria, RHP
MLBTR's Prediction: Royals
Wooly's Prediction: Royals
Wooly's Darkhorse: Yankees
38. Joel Peralta, RHP: Signed by the Tampa Bay Rays
39. Mariano Rivera, RHP
MLBTR's Prediction: Yankees
Wooly's Prediction: Yankees
Wooly's Darkhorse: N/A
40. Ichiro Suzuki, RF
MLBTR's Prediction: Rays
Wooly's Prediction: Yankees
Wooly's Darkhorse: Reds
Ichiro is likely not a starter for anybody at this point. I think he sticks around as the 4th outfielder with the Yankees, who will likely pay him a nice salary. The Rays have the need, but I don't think they will pay up for him.
41. Jeff Keppinger, UTIL
MLBTR's Prediction: Orioles
Wooly's Prediction: Orioles
Wooly's Darkhorse: Rays
42. Mike Adams, RHP
MLBTR's Prediction: Phillies
Wooly's Prediction: Angels
Wooly's Darkhorse: Athletics
43. Andy Pettitte, LHP
MLBTR's Prediction: Yankees
Wooly's Prediction: Yankees
Wooly's Darkhorse: Blue Jays
44. Jose Valverde, RHP
MLBTR's Prediction: Reds
Wooly's Prediction: Astros
Wooly's Darkhorse: Tigers (Tigers can say they won't pursue him, but they might have to)
45. Jonathan Broxton, RHP
MLBTR's Prediction: Rangers
Wooly's Prediction: Reds
Wooly's Darkhorse: Royals
46. Scott Baker, RHP
MLBTR's Prediction: Twins
Wooly's Prediction: Twins
Wooly's Darkhorse: Rockies
Baker is the most interesting piece you'll find this low on the list. He's been strong in the past, but no pitcher is the same in their initial campaign right after TJS. Baker had the procedure in April 2012, so it's likely that Baker won't be ready until May or possibly June.
47. Sean Burnett, LHP
MLBTR's Prediction: Cardinals
Wooly's Prediction: Giants
Wooly's Darkhorse: Cubs
48. Jeremy Guthrie, RHP
MLBTR's Prediction: Pirates
Wooly's Prediction: Royals
Wooly's Darkhorse: Blue Jays
49. Eric Chavez, 3B
MLBTR's Prediction: Yankees
Wooly's Prediction: Yankees
Wooly's Darkhorse: Red Sox
50. Jeremy Affeldt, LHP
MLBTR's Prediction: Giants
Wooly's Prediction: Cardinals
Wooly's Darkhorse: Angels
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