1) Consider the contract. The longer a team has control of a player, the more valuable he is in a deal. That being said, if a player has a lot of money attached to him, that hurts his value quite a bit.
2) Consider age. The ideal thing to do with a roster is have as many good players in their prime as possible. As hard as it is to get good players, it is even harder to get good players that still have their best years in front of them.
3) Any player at any level is up for grabs. Limiting this to just MLB experience ignores how valuable true blue-chip prospects are.
4) Assume the current baseball environment. Certain teams have tons of room to add contracts and certain positions are far more scarce than others.
Top Honorable Mention: Adam Jones
Bonus time! Turns out that I can't count, but I can't just leave Adam Jones out of this. He's too good of a player, and I've never had a reason to dislike him so here he is! The reason Jones is on the outside looking in? Well, I am not 100% confident in last year, and he now has quite a lot of money attached to his name. Center field is pretty thin, but Jones is probably closer to an above-average player than a perennial All Star.
50) Mat Latos, SP (RH)
Take a deep breath and exhale, because the next 50 spots are the equivalent of splitting hairs. Coming in at #50 is a 25 YO pitcher who has ace potential. However, he's been experiencing significant regression. There are cases where I don't like peripherals, but I like using them here. A declining strikeout rate from 22 YO to 24 YO is an immediate red flag and puts a serious damper on Latos' future value. He could develop into an ace, but the safe bet is keeping him down here.
49) Jay Bruce, RF
I am one of Bruce's biggest fans, but I hate the fact that he still hasn't broken out. He's been touted as a great fielder, but the numbers haven't followed. He's been touted as a great power hitter, and the ISO finally showed up this year. On upside alone, he should be higher. However, he's had quite a while for that upside to show up, and it still hasn't yet.
48) Jered Weaver, SP (RH)
I'll admit it: this last year from Weaver really scared me. While he is fantastic at pitching with runners on and limiting the runs that cross the plate, the drop he experienced in his strikeout rate is a huge red flag. On top of that, he had a back injury for a period of time, and he is going to be 30 to start the 2013 season. His contract is really fair for what he's going to give you, but I think the risk involved with Weaver is enough to drop him quite a bit on the list.
47) Jeremy Hellickson, SP (RH)
I believe in Jeremy Hellickson. I think he has a genuine talent for pitching out of the stretch, and he is fantastic at stranding runners as a result. While this is a great skill, there is still the fact that this is something that is very hard to continuously repeat over a long period of time. Because of that I think Hellickson will have his fair share of down years, but he's cheap enough and has enough control to be a great addition to any team.
46) Yadier Molina, C
His position is what I love and hate about him. He's an amazing defender, but he's going to be 30 YO at the start of the 2013 season. Since catchers play such a strenuous position, I don't believe Molina is going to age well, and I don't like the idea of being tied up with him through 2016.
45) Elvis Andrus, SS
If only he had more team control, man. He's still incredibly young, and he's proven as one of the best players at his position in the game. However, he is only controlled for two more seasons, so instead of getting 20+ wins over 5 years, you're probably going to get 8 wins over two. The silver lining for him may be that you could still re-sign him to a longer deal since he is still a bit away from free agency.
44) Johnny Cueto, SP (RH)
I honestly think he's just a better version of Hellickson. His ability to keep the ball in the ballpark while pitching primarily at Great American Ballpark has been impeccable. I think his numbers would be good wherever he wound up, and he is fairly cheap to control. Again, the largest concern is the fact that stranding runners is a risky thing to have as your go-to ability. Any year where a pitcher struggles to do that could turn disastrous in a hurry.
43) Austin Jackson, CF
This year Austin Jackson walked more and hit for more power than he ever has. Normally I would be more excited, but I always get somewhat worried about a player who has recently changed approaches at the plate. Jackson is a solid center fielder with three more years of control, but he has the ability to be a 5+ win player again. I think he's going to be closer to 3.5-4, but even if he hits that mark he is a great player to trade for.
42) Gio Gonzalez, SP (LH)
He's going into his prime and has a team-favorable contract that allows for possible control through 2018. However, he has a history of control issues, and I'm not convinced that he's over them. Pitchers that walk a lot of guys tend to be inefficient and throw a lot of pitches, so it's possible durability becomes an issue down the road (though in the immediate future it does not appear to be a concern at all). His peripherals suggest a 4 win pitcher, but that's if he avoids those walk issues that sit in his past.
41) Andrelton Simmons, SS
Probably a little under a year ago, I started trying to learn more about prospects. One of the posters on the message board I frequent (CC for board people) mentioned a certain appreciation for this young shortstop. After doing more research and watching him play last year, I became quite the fan. Simmons is smooth with the glove and competent with the bat. He didn't walk a ton last year, but he made contact with everything (with an admittedly modest .127 ISO). He's still only 23 years old, and he's controlled for a long time (longer if he isn't a super 2). While not on the level of some elite prospects, he is going to likely be a very good major league player.
40) Wil Myers, OF
I love Wil Myers. He has big power and puts up bigger numbers. However, I don't think there's anything close to a concensus on what position he will play in the majors (or how well he'll play it once he gets to the majors). His value will be different to different people, so I'm going to play it safe with this one.
39) Oscar Tavares, OF
I have never seen him play baseball, so my judgment comes completely from scouting professionals and board members that I trust. With that considered, I have only heard extremely positive things about Tavares' bat, and most people I see talk about him consider his bat to be the best below the MLB level of competition. His ability in the field may not be stellar, but his bat bring rave reviews with many considering him the long-term cleanup hitter in St. Louis. Any time you can get this kind of bat this young, you jump on it. However, positional value and defense are in question, so he can't be much higher than this.
38) Matt Wieters, C
It's too bad that Wieters never developed the bat that some thought he would. After two consecutive years of similar performance, I think it's safe to say you know what you're going to get with Wieters: a stellar defensive catcher who performs at an overall All Star level who is going straight into the prime of his career. If he came with more than 3 years of control, I'd consider him for the top 30. Catchers are a rare commodity, and they are even rarer when they are as good as Wieters.
37) Manny Machado, SS/3B
Some people may respond to this ranking with a "What the heck man, he wasn't that good last year!" I respond with, "Well, yeah he was...he was also 19 years old!" Machado put up 1.2 fWAR in 51 games last year, and that was with rather pedestrian offensive numbers. Most expect those numbers to rise significantly in the coming years. The only real concern here is whether the team you want to trade him to views him as a third baseman or a shortstop. If it's the latter, then some will probably shoot him up this list quite a bit. He's got tons of control left, but he'll likely be a Super 2 (so yay arbitration!).
36) Dylan Bundy, SP (RH)
First things first: we'll assume his cutter hasn't been terminated as a pitch. Any team that trades for Bundy will likely want to try to develop his full arsenal. If they do, then they are acquiring the best pitching prospect in the game. His stuff his electric, and many found him to be the most polished high school arm they had seen coming into the draft. He didn't pitch nearly enough to reach rookie status, so the time he's controlled for is undetermined. When he's ready for the bigs, he's going to eventually become the ace of a staff.
35) Jose Bautista, RF
I'm guessing most teams won't but him at third base unless they have someone like Justin Upton or Jason Heyward in the outfield. With Bautista, there are two significant concerns: 1) How much did his injuries last year impact him? 2) How will he age, considering he didn't become what he is now until just a couple years ago? These unknowns plus a 13 AAV on his contract make it really hard for me to place him higher on this list. He has the ability to play as one of the top few outfielders in baseball, but the risk involved in picking him up is massive.
34) Carlos Santana, C/1B
I still have faith that his true power will emerge in the near future. If it does, he becomes an elite offensive catcher. However, the largest (pun intended) concern with Santana comes through his inability to play defense, which stems from the frame he carries around. In a few years, I believe Santana is going to be playing a lot of first place and just a little bit of catcher instead of playing a lot of catcher and just a little bit of first base. His contract is extremely team friendly and he is controlled through 2017 (oh yeah, and he's still just about to head into his prime).
33) Dustin Pedroia, 2B
On this one, I considered the team he plays for just a little bit. The Red Sox imploded as a team last year, and the results were about as gory as a poorly-done zombie movie. One of the most loved players in Boston over the last few years has been the Laser Show, and there are very few scenarios where the Sox move him. Also, he's an incredibly talented 2nd baseman who lights it up both on offense and defense. Injuries have been a concern lately, but he's still just 29 and is controlled for a few more years with the ability to perform as the best second baseman in baseball.
32) Alex Gordon, LF
I think the BABIP numbers might just be legitimate, and he's one of the best fielders in the game. He has shown average power, walks a lot, and doesn't strike out a bunch. I really think he's got the ability to perform as a 6 fWAR player, and he's got a very favorable deal. He's emerged as the cornerstone of the Royals' franchise and he still has a couple very good years left (though he will be exiting his prime shortly).
31) Ben Zobrist, 2B/OF
The best thing about Zobrist is you can play him just about anywhere and he'll play at a high level. His age is obviously the biggest concern here, but he's got such a favorable deal and performs at such a high level that he has to be higher up on the list than the guys before him. Some could make an argument for Pedroia over Zobrist, but I'll take Zobrist right now because there is less risk involved with him at a much lower price.
30) Yoenis Cespedes, CF
A lot of people thought he would have a miserable time with MLB caliber breaking pitches, but his 18.9% K rate suggests that he was able to lay off of the good ones. This helped lead Cespedes to a great offensive season. Now, his defense was suspect at best according to ratings, but I'm willing to bet that a bit of MLB coaching in the off season and through next year will help him quite a bit. He's going into his prime and has the bat of an elite center fielder, and he also has a team-friendly contract.
29) Jurickson Profar, SS
Profar's separation from other prospects on this list comes from the sheer upside he has at the position he plays. There's pop in his bat, speed in his legs, and gold in his glove. Many think he has "best shortstop in baseball potential" and I can tell you that I'm looking forward to being a witness to it.
28) Aroldis Chapman, SP/RP
Let one thing be clear: the Reds are making Chapman a starter, and I have to believe that teams that trade for him do so to turn him into a starter. His stuff impeccable, and if he can command it effectively he has ace potential. However, I have serious concerns about his ability to convert to the rotation. The reason he's higher than other prospects is that there's a security blanket involved: he's one of the two best relievers in baseball if he doesn't make it as a starter. He's a relatively safe, super high-upside play with a friendly deal.
27) Matt Kemp, CF
For 13 months, he played as the best player in baseball. However, his nagging injuries really hurt his value, and he did not come back well from them this year. If he can bounce back, he's easily a top 5 player in the game. However, it is more likely that he gains a part of his old ability back rather than all of it, so he and his large contract can sit further down on the list for now.
26) Matt Cain, SP (RH)
With Cain, we know that he is currently one of the best pitchers in baseball given the conditions around him. That being said, it is unknown how his numbers would change if he pitched in a different ballpark for half of his games. Along with this, his primary skill is stranding runners on base, which is hard to continue to do as mentioned earlier in this countdown. He has the potential to pitch as one of the best pitchers in baseball, but the risk in moving him to a new park is magnified by the new contract he was signed to.
25) Brett Lawrie, 3B
Lawrie burst onto the scene in 2011 and had a great opportunity to add onto it as a full-time starter in 2012. However, he didn't take full advantage of his opportunity and that has some people worried. He comes with plenty of control and hasn't hit arbitration yet, so his value is high considering how great his upside is as a young third baseman. He has all the ability to be one of the best players in baseball, but he has to put it all together first.
24) Salvador Perez, C
Not many people in the game have the kind of throwing arm that Perez possesses, and it may not be absurd to suggest that he's got the strongest arm in the game (just look up his pickoff numbers in limited time last year). He's good behind the plate and he has the potential to be a strong power hitter. His *incredible* contract allows for eight years of control at a total of 17.5 million. Yeah, a potential All Star catcher for 2 million a year for 8 years. The only reason he's not much, much higher on this list is that we haven't seen him in a full season of play yet.
23) Yu Darvish, SP (RH)
Yay strikeouts! Boo walks...There was plenty of doubt and concern over how Darvish would perform once he got into MLB, and his first year went about as expected. If he can take advantage of his MLB coaching and get his walks in check, he has legitimate ace potential. Unlike most Japanese imports, he's still really young, and I believe he has plenty of room to grow and develop.
22) Desmond Jennings, CF
It's too bad that B.J. Upton existed on the Rays roster last year, because Jennings didn't get the opportunity to play center field full time. Any team that trades for him is going to want him for center field, so that's where we're putting him. He is an exceptional fielder and an amazing baserunner, and I believe he has room to improve as a hitter. I think he can put up many 5 fWAR seasons, and he likely has some 6 fWAR seasons in him. He's heading into his prime and is under control through 2017, so he's an incredibly valuable trade piece.
21) Jason Kipnis, 2B
Take a look down the road at the second base position. In 5 years the majority of the top talent is going to be in its mid-late 30's! Because of that, having a second baseman of Kipnis' quality is going to be hugeover the larger part of the next decade. He can steal bags, has pop in his bat, and is an adequate defender. The fact that he is controlled through 2017 helps his case even more, and I believe he'll soon be putting up 4-5 fWAR seasons every year.
20) Troy Tulowitzki, SS
It's the tale of two extremes with Tulo. On one hand, he's easily the best shorstop in baseball when he is healthy. On the other hand, he is being paid a buttload of money and keeps getting hurt. While the injuries he has had have been random and aren't very likely to happen again, it is alarming that he keeps experiencing them. Whether or not it is justified, there has to be some kind of concern with Tulo for anyone who wants to trade for him. However, the upside absolutely is worth the contract, so there's no way I can leave him out of my top 20.
19) Miguel Cabrera, 3B/1B
Miggy would be a lot higher if I had any faith in him remaining as a third baseman on any other roster in MLB. He has three years of relatively friendly control left, but they are his first years in his thirties and, like I said, he's probably a first baseman on most teams. While he is still a very, very good player I can't place him any higher than where he is.
18) Justin Verlander, SP (RH)
I fully expect to be grilled for this decision, but look at three key things: 1) He's 30 years old 2) He's going to make 40 million dollars over the next 2 years 3) He's only got two more years of control. Sure the upside is gigantic, but can you really give up a bunch of long-term, cheap, All Star-to-MVP production for 2 years of expensive Verlander? I don't think so. I love the guy, but I'm as much concerned with winning immediately as I am with being able to win 5 years from now.
17) Madison Bumgarner, SP (LH)
He can be controlled through 2019, he's going to be 23 at the start of next year, and he's averaging over 4 fWAR over the last 2 years (and rightfully so as his other peripherals don't hate his FIP numbers). More importantly, he's shown the ability to pitch 200+ innings multiple years in a row. Showing that kind of ability over that many innings is remarkable at 23 years of age.
16) Starlin Castro, SS
He's shown improving power, improving defense, and if his BABIP gets back up to the .340 range, he's quite the capable offensive shortstop. I don't think he'll ever put up MVP numbers, but he's going to give you consistent All Star production over what could be the next 9 years (and let's not ignore the possibility of him having years where he performs over his head). It's looking like he'll provide around 26-32 wins of production over the next 8 years and he'll only have to be paid 61 million to do so. Incredible value at a very thin position.
15) Matt Moore, SP (LH)
I really did not want to, but I did. While Moore will be 24 at the start of the 2013 season and was remarkably average last year, his stuff is just SO GOOD. I can't leave such a young player with such an amazing contract out of the top 15 just because he had one "meh" season. He's got incredible ability, and if he gets those walks under control...look out.
14) Justin Upton, RF
I really did not want to, but I did. He was so great in 2011 that I just can't let 2012 weigh in my mind too much. He is an incredible talent who is still younger than Desmond Jennings (not kidding, look it up). I don't know why exactly his ISO dropped the way it did in 2012, but I expect it to bounce back in 2013. When it does, he is one of the best outfielders in the game with a great contract. I still think he has an MVP in his future.
13) Felix Hernandez, SP (RH)
He's really good, and amazingly is still only going to be 27 at the start of 2013. Like Verlander, he is only controlled for a couple more years. However, after those two years are up it will be easier to accept meeting the contract demands he'll have (considering he'll be 28 going on 29 versus Verlander's 31 going on 32). He's been incredibly consistent over the last four years, and you know what you're going to get. I think he's a great long-term investment if someone is willing to sign him long-term.
12) Chris Sale, SP (LH)
He wasn't a whole lot worse than Felix Hernandez last year, but he didn't pitch as many innings due to time in the bullpen and time dealing with arm fatigue. However, he's only going to be 24 and is controlled for four more years. He carries ace potential, but it's very possible that stamina is a concern down the road.
11) David Price, SP (LH)
I think his performance last year was actually just a little underrated. Pitching to a 3.12 xFIP over 211 innings as an AL East pitcher is really hard. Price, like Hernandez, will be 27 starting next year, but he's controlled for three years and is due to hit arbitration for the first time this year. He's the most cost-effective of the elite starters in this part of the list.
10) Clayton Kershaw, SP (LH)
Simply put, I think he's going to be the 2nd best pitcher in baseball over the next 5-10 years. He's still only 25 and is not yet making a large sum of money. In fact, the Dodgers only signed him through his first two arbitration years, so he's still got an arbitration eligible season after 2013. Because of this, he's controlled for at least two more seasons, but there is plenty of time to sign him to a friendly extension.
9) Andrew McCutchen, CF
I don't think he's going to repeat his BABIP numbers from last year, but I also don't believe that he's as bad a fielder as UZR suggests. Honestly, I can see McCutchen's ISO staying about where it is with a decreased BABIP and better defensive numbers, leaving him as a consistent 6 fWAR player. Having that kind of production from center field for roughly 10 million dollars a season through 2018 is one of greatest luxuries a team can have.
8) Ryan Braun, LF
Braun is one of the best hitters in the game who has made great strides as a fielder. While he is not a good defender by any means, he is rather capable in the field. Unknown to most people, Braun is also a great base runner who makes enough smart decisions on the bases to provide significant value to his team. One of the greatest things about Braun is that he's controlled through 2021 at a very reasonable price. Considering he's put up back-to-back MVP caliber seasons, I don't think he is going to regress all too quickly (also considering how balanced his skill set is and the fact that he'll only be 29 at the start of next year).
7) Evan Longoria, 3B
Admittedly, I am putting a lot of faith in Longoria's ability to stay healthy. He's still only going to be 27 next year and he's signed for a decade at a great price. However, it has to be considered that he has had trouble staying healthy, so the risk with him is high enough to keep him out of the top 6.
6) Stephen Strasburg, SP (RH)
There's no way I can put any pitcher on Strasburg's level here. With a full season's workload, he's easily the best pitcher in baseball. If you've never seen him pitch, you need to make a point of doing so during the course of the 2013 season, because there's nothing like it. I'd say I've not been more impressed by any pitcher since Randy Johnson, and that's saying something. On top of all of this he's still exceptionally young and is cost-controlled. However, there's still the fact that he has already had TJS once, and it wouldn't shock me if he needed it again (baseball would really benefit from this not becoming a Mark Prior scenario).
5) Giancarlo Stanton, RF
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_QNRen-oDRE
Nobody hits the baseball like this guy does. When I say nobody, I really do mean NOBODY. He strikes out quite a bit, but when you have a .318 ISO you don't have to worry about that too much. Unlike most traditional power hitters, Stanton is actually quite the fielder and may have an outside shot at a gold glove before his career is over. If he can avoid injury, he could be the best power hitter in baseball down the road.
4) Jason Heyward, RF
In 2010, everyone went "ermehgerd Jason Heyward" similar to how they went "ermehgerd Mike Trout" this season. After an injury-riddled 2011, the J-Hey kid returned with authority to the tune of a 6.6 fWAR season. He has plenty of power in his bat, is a great baserunner, and is an amazing defender. He's still only going to be 23 next year, and I think he's going to go down as one of the best right fielders of all time.
3) Buster Posey, C
With as great as everyone else on this list has been, we are now entering rarified air. In 2012, Posey had an 8 fWAR season as a catcher. This is something reserved for the all-time greats. While it is hard to see him repeating it, it's not hard to see him putting up some 7 fWAR seasons in the future on a consistent basis. He's controlled for four more seasons and is still only going to be 26 years old at the start of 2013.
2) Bryce Harper, RF
While I think Bryce Harper is going to be the best player in baseball over the next decade and one of the all-time greats, other conditions make me put him #2 instead of #1. Harper has bat speed that is truly remarkable, which should lead to great future power numbers. Even more impressive than his bat speed is his arm strength. Seriously, watch this kid (yeah, he's still a kid since he'll be 20 at the start of 2013) throw a baseball. Truly remarkable: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jUpLILIHzEk
1) Mike Trout, CF
I really do think that Harper is going to be his better over the next 10 years, but it's just impossible to say anybody has more trade value right now. He's going to be a Super 2 (just like Harper) so his control won't be as incredible as someone like Longoria, Castro, Braun, or Moore, but he's going to be controlled for the better part of this decade. The thing that makes him the most valuable trade piece in baseball is the 2012 campaign he had. The sheer shock value is enough to make some teams give up whatever it takes to get him. While it is more likely that he regresses instead of progressing, he's still going to put up a ton of wins in value in a very cost-efficient manner.
This year Austin Jackson walked more and hit for more power than he ever has. Normally I would be more excited, but I always get somewhat worried about a player who has recently changed approaches at the plate. Jackson is a solid center fielder with three more years of control, but he has the ability to be a 5+ win player again. I think he's going to be closer to 3.5-4, but even if he hits that mark he is a great player to trade for.
42) Gio Gonzalez, SP (LH)
He's going into his prime and has a team-favorable contract that allows for possible control through 2018. However, he has a history of control issues, and I'm not convinced that he's over them. Pitchers that walk a lot of guys tend to be inefficient and throw a lot of pitches, so it's possible durability becomes an issue down the road (though in the immediate future it does not appear to be a concern at all). His peripherals suggest a 4 win pitcher, but that's if he avoids those walk issues that sit in his past.
41) Andrelton Simmons, SS
Probably a little under a year ago, I started trying to learn more about prospects. One of the posters on the message board I frequent (CC for board people) mentioned a certain appreciation for this young shortstop. After doing more research and watching him play last year, I became quite the fan. Simmons is smooth with the glove and competent with the bat. He didn't walk a ton last year, but he made contact with everything (with an admittedly modest .127 ISO). He's still only 23 years old, and he's controlled for a long time (longer if he isn't a super 2). While not on the level of some elite prospects, he is going to likely be a very good major league player.
40) Wil Myers, OF
I love Wil Myers. He has big power and puts up bigger numbers. However, I don't think there's anything close to a concensus on what position he will play in the majors (or how well he'll play it once he gets to the majors). His value will be different to different people, so I'm going to play it safe with this one.
39) Oscar Tavares, OF
I have never seen him play baseball, so my judgment comes completely from scouting professionals and board members that I trust. With that considered, I have only heard extremely positive things about Tavares' bat, and most people I see talk about him consider his bat to be the best below the MLB level of competition. His ability in the field may not be stellar, but his bat bring rave reviews with many considering him the long-term cleanup hitter in St. Louis. Any time you can get this kind of bat this young, you jump on it. However, positional value and defense are in question, so he can't be much higher than this.
38) Matt Wieters, C
It's too bad that Wieters never developed the bat that some thought he would. After two consecutive years of similar performance, I think it's safe to say you know what you're going to get with Wieters: a stellar defensive catcher who performs at an overall All Star level who is going straight into the prime of his career. If he came with more than 3 years of control, I'd consider him for the top 30. Catchers are a rare commodity, and they are even rarer when they are as good as Wieters.
37) Manny Machado, SS/3B
Some people may respond to this ranking with a "What the heck man, he wasn't that good last year!" I respond with, "Well, yeah he was...he was also 19 years old!" Machado put up 1.2 fWAR in 51 games last year, and that was with rather pedestrian offensive numbers. Most expect those numbers to rise significantly in the coming years. The only real concern here is whether the team you want to trade him to views him as a third baseman or a shortstop. If it's the latter, then some will probably shoot him up this list quite a bit. He's got tons of control left, but he'll likely be a Super 2 (so yay arbitration!).
36) Dylan Bundy, SP (RH)
First things first: we'll assume his cutter hasn't been terminated as a pitch. Any team that trades for Bundy will likely want to try to develop his full arsenal. If they do, then they are acquiring the best pitching prospect in the game. His stuff his electric, and many found him to be the most polished high school arm they had seen coming into the draft. He didn't pitch nearly enough to reach rookie status, so the time he's controlled for is undetermined. When he's ready for the bigs, he's going to eventually become the ace of a staff.
35) Jose Bautista, RF
I'm guessing most teams won't but him at third base unless they have someone like Justin Upton or Jason Heyward in the outfield. With Bautista, there are two significant concerns: 1) How much did his injuries last year impact him? 2) How will he age, considering he didn't become what he is now until just a couple years ago? These unknowns plus a 13 AAV on his contract make it really hard for me to place him higher on this list. He has the ability to play as one of the top few outfielders in baseball, but the risk involved in picking him up is massive.
34) Carlos Santana, C/1B
I still have faith that his true power will emerge in the near future. If it does, he becomes an elite offensive catcher. However, the largest (pun intended) concern with Santana comes through his inability to play defense, which stems from the frame he carries around. In a few years, I believe Santana is going to be playing a lot of first place and just a little bit of catcher instead of playing a lot of catcher and just a little bit of first base. His contract is extremely team friendly and he is controlled through 2017 (oh yeah, and he's still just about to head into his prime).
33) Dustin Pedroia, 2B
On this one, I considered the team he plays for just a little bit. The Red Sox imploded as a team last year, and the results were about as gory as a poorly-done zombie movie. One of the most loved players in Boston over the last few years has been the Laser Show, and there are very few scenarios where the Sox move him. Also, he's an incredibly talented 2nd baseman who lights it up both on offense and defense. Injuries have been a concern lately, but he's still just 29 and is controlled for a few more years with the ability to perform as the best second baseman in baseball.
32) Alex Gordon, LF
I think the BABIP numbers might just be legitimate, and he's one of the best fielders in the game. He has shown average power, walks a lot, and doesn't strike out a bunch. I really think he's got the ability to perform as a 6 fWAR player, and he's got a very favorable deal. He's emerged as the cornerstone of the Royals' franchise and he still has a couple very good years left (though he will be exiting his prime shortly).
31) Ben Zobrist, 2B/OF
The best thing about Zobrist is you can play him just about anywhere and he'll play at a high level. His age is obviously the biggest concern here, but he's got such a favorable deal and performs at such a high level that he has to be higher up on the list than the guys before him. Some could make an argument for Pedroia over Zobrist, but I'll take Zobrist right now because there is less risk involved with him at a much lower price.
30) Yoenis Cespedes, CF
A lot of people thought he would have a miserable time with MLB caliber breaking pitches, but his 18.9% K rate suggests that he was able to lay off of the good ones. This helped lead Cespedes to a great offensive season. Now, his defense was suspect at best according to ratings, but I'm willing to bet that a bit of MLB coaching in the off season and through next year will help him quite a bit. He's going into his prime and has the bat of an elite center fielder, and he also has a team-friendly contract.
29) Jurickson Profar, SS
Profar's separation from other prospects on this list comes from the sheer upside he has at the position he plays. There's pop in his bat, speed in his legs, and gold in his glove. Many think he has "best shortstop in baseball potential" and I can tell you that I'm looking forward to being a witness to it.
28) Aroldis Chapman, SP/RP
Let one thing be clear: the Reds are making Chapman a starter, and I have to believe that teams that trade for him do so to turn him into a starter. His stuff impeccable, and if he can command it effectively he has ace potential. However, I have serious concerns about his ability to convert to the rotation. The reason he's higher than other prospects is that there's a security blanket involved: he's one of the two best relievers in baseball if he doesn't make it as a starter. He's a relatively safe, super high-upside play with a friendly deal.
27) Matt Kemp, CF
For 13 months, he played as the best player in baseball. However, his nagging injuries really hurt his value, and he did not come back well from them this year. If he can bounce back, he's easily a top 5 player in the game. However, it is more likely that he gains a part of his old ability back rather than all of it, so he and his large contract can sit further down on the list for now.
26) Matt Cain, SP (RH)
With Cain, we know that he is currently one of the best pitchers in baseball given the conditions around him. That being said, it is unknown how his numbers would change if he pitched in a different ballpark for half of his games. Along with this, his primary skill is stranding runners on base, which is hard to continue to do as mentioned earlier in this countdown. He has the potential to pitch as one of the best pitchers in baseball, but the risk in moving him to a new park is magnified by the new contract he was signed to.
25) Brett Lawrie, 3B
Lawrie burst onto the scene in 2011 and had a great opportunity to add onto it as a full-time starter in 2012. However, he didn't take full advantage of his opportunity and that has some people worried. He comes with plenty of control and hasn't hit arbitration yet, so his value is high considering how great his upside is as a young third baseman. He has all the ability to be one of the best players in baseball, but he has to put it all together first.
24) Salvador Perez, C
Not many people in the game have the kind of throwing arm that Perez possesses, and it may not be absurd to suggest that he's got the strongest arm in the game (just look up his pickoff numbers in limited time last year). He's good behind the plate and he has the potential to be a strong power hitter. His *incredible* contract allows for eight years of control at a total of 17.5 million. Yeah, a potential All Star catcher for 2 million a year for 8 years. The only reason he's not much, much higher on this list is that we haven't seen him in a full season of play yet.
23) Yu Darvish, SP (RH)
Yay strikeouts! Boo walks...There was plenty of doubt and concern over how Darvish would perform once he got into MLB, and his first year went about as expected. If he can take advantage of his MLB coaching and get his walks in check, he has legitimate ace potential. Unlike most Japanese imports, he's still really young, and I believe he has plenty of room to grow and develop.
22) Desmond Jennings, CF
It's too bad that B.J. Upton existed on the Rays roster last year, because Jennings didn't get the opportunity to play center field full time. Any team that trades for him is going to want him for center field, so that's where we're putting him. He is an exceptional fielder and an amazing baserunner, and I believe he has room to improve as a hitter. I think he can put up many 5 fWAR seasons, and he likely has some 6 fWAR seasons in him. He's heading into his prime and is under control through 2017, so he's an incredibly valuable trade piece.
21) Jason Kipnis, 2B
Take a look down the road at the second base position. In 5 years the majority of the top talent is going to be in its mid-late 30's! Because of that, having a second baseman of Kipnis' quality is going to be hugeover the larger part of the next decade. He can steal bags, has pop in his bat, and is an adequate defender. The fact that he is controlled through 2017 helps his case even more, and I believe he'll soon be putting up 4-5 fWAR seasons every year.
20) Troy Tulowitzki, SS
It's the tale of two extremes with Tulo. On one hand, he's easily the best shorstop in baseball when he is healthy. On the other hand, he is being paid a buttload of money and keeps getting hurt. While the injuries he has had have been random and aren't very likely to happen again, it is alarming that he keeps experiencing them. Whether or not it is justified, there has to be some kind of concern with Tulo for anyone who wants to trade for him. However, the upside absolutely is worth the contract, so there's no way I can leave him out of my top 20.
19) Miguel Cabrera, 3B/1B
Miggy would be a lot higher if I had any faith in him remaining as a third baseman on any other roster in MLB. He has three years of relatively friendly control left, but they are his first years in his thirties and, like I said, he's probably a first baseman on most teams. While he is still a very, very good player I can't place him any higher than where he is.
18) Justin Verlander, SP (RH)
I fully expect to be grilled for this decision, but look at three key things: 1) He's 30 years old 2) He's going to make 40 million dollars over the next 2 years 3) He's only got two more years of control. Sure the upside is gigantic, but can you really give up a bunch of long-term, cheap, All Star-to-MVP production for 2 years of expensive Verlander? I don't think so. I love the guy, but I'm as much concerned with winning immediately as I am with being able to win 5 years from now.
17) Madison Bumgarner, SP (LH)
He can be controlled through 2019, he's going to be 23 at the start of next year, and he's averaging over 4 fWAR over the last 2 years (and rightfully so as his other peripherals don't hate his FIP numbers). More importantly, he's shown the ability to pitch 200+ innings multiple years in a row. Showing that kind of ability over that many innings is remarkable at 23 years of age.
16) Starlin Castro, SS
He's shown improving power, improving defense, and if his BABIP gets back up to the .340 range, he's quite the capable offensive shortstop. I don't think he'll ever put up MVP numbers, but he's going to give you consistent All Star production over what could be the next 9 years (and let's not ignore the possibility of him having years where he performs over his head). It's looking like he'll provide around 26-32 wins of production over the next 8 years and he'll only have to be paid 61 million to do so. Incredible value at a very thin position.
15) Matt Moore, SP (LH)
I really did not want to, but I did. While Moore will be 24 at the start of the 2013 season and was remarkably average last year, his stuff is just SO GOOD. I can't leave such a young player with such an amazing contract out of the top 15 just because he had one "meh" season. He's got incredible ability, and if he gets those walks under control...look out.
14) Justin Upton, RF
I really did not want to, but I did. He was so great in 2011 that I just can't let 2012 weigh in my mind too much. He is an incredible talent who is still younger than Desmond Jennings (not kidding, look it up). I don't know why exactly his ISO dropped the way it did in 2012, but I expect it to bounce back in 2013. When it does, he is one of the best outfielders in the game with a great contract. I still think he has an MVP in his future.
13) Felix Hernandez, SP (RH)
He's really good, and amazingly is still only going to be 27 at the start of 2013. Like Verlander, he is only controlled for a couple more years. However, after those two years are up it will be easier to accept meeting the contract demands he'll have (considering he'll be 28 going on 29 versus Verlander's 31 going on 32). He's been incredibly consistent over the last four years, and you know what you're going to get. I think he's a great long-term investment if someone is willing to sign him long-term.
12) Chris Sale, SP (LH)
He wasn't a whole lot worse than Felix Hernandez last year, but he didn't pitch as many innings due to time in the bullpen and time dealing with arm fatigue. However, he's only going to be 24 and is controlled for four more years. He carries ace potential, but it's very possible that stamina is a concern down the road.
11) David Price, SP (LH)
I think his performance last year was actually just a little underrated. Pitching to a 3.12 xFIP over 211 innings as an AL East pitcher is really hard. Price, like Hernandez, will be 27 starting next year, but he's controlled for three years and is due to hit arbitration for the first time this year. He's the most cost-effective of the elite starters in this part of the list.
10) Clayton Kershaw, SP (LH)
Simply put, I think he's going to be the 2nd best pitcher in baseball over the next 5-10 years. He's still only 25 and is not yet making a large sum of money. In fact, the Dodgers only signed him through his first two arbitration years, so he's still got an arbitration eligible season after 2013. Because of this, he's controlled for at least two more seasons, but there is plenty of time to sign him to a friendly extension.
9) Andrew McCutchen, CF
I don't think he's going to repeat his BABIP numbers from last year, but I also don't believe that he's as bad a fielder as UZR suggests. Honestly, I can see McCutchen's ISO staying about where it is with a decreased BABIP and better defensive numbers, leaving him as a consistent 6 fWAR player. Having that kind of production from center field for roughly 10 million dollars a season through 2018 is one of greatest luxuries a team can have.
8) Ryan Braun, LF
Braun is one of the best hitters in the game who has made great strides as a fielder. While he is not a good defender by any means, he is rather capable in the field. Unknown to most people, Braun is also a great base runner who makes enough smart decisions on the bases to provide significant value to his team. One of the greatest things about Braun is that he's controlled through 2021 at a very reasonable price. Considering he's put up back-to-back MVP caliber seasons, I don't think he is going to regress all too quickly (also considering how balanced his skill set is and the fact that he'll only be 29 at the start of next year).
7) Evan Longoria, 3B
Admittedly, I am putting a lot of faith in Longoria's ability to stay healthy. He's still only going to be 27 next year and he's signed for a decade at a great price. However, it has to be considered that he has had trouble staying healthy, so the risk with him is high enough to keep him out of the top 6.
6) Stephen Strasburg, SP (RH)
There's no way I can put any pitcher on Strasburg's level here. With a full season's workload, he's easily the best pitcher in baseball. If you've never seen him pitch, you need to make a point of doing so during the course of the 2013 season, because there's nothing like it. I'd say I've not been more impressed by any pitcher since Randy Johnson, and that's saying something. On top of all of this he's still exceptionally young and is cost-controlled. However, there's still the fact that he has already had TJS once, and it wouldn't shock me if he needed it again (baseball would really benefit from this not becoming a Mark Prior scenario).
5) Giancarlo Stanton, RF
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_QNRen-oDRE
Nobody hits the baseball like this guy does. When I say nobody, I really do mean NOBODY. He strikes out quite a bit, but when you have a .318 ISO you don't have to worry about that too much. Unlike most traditional power hitters, Stanton is actually quite the fielder and may have an outside shot at a gold glove before his career is over. If he can avoid injury, he could be the best power hitter in baseball down the road.
4) Jason Heyward, RF
In 2010, everyone went "ermehgerd Jason Heyward" similar to how they went "ermehgerd Mike Trout" this season. After an injury-riddled 2011, the J-Hey kid returned with authority to the tune of a 6.6 fWAR season. He has plenty of power in his bat, is a great baserunner, and is an amazing defender. He's still only going to be 23 next year, and I think he's going to go down as one of the best right fielders of all time.
3) Buster Posey, C
With as great as everyone else on this list has been, we are now entering rarified air. In 2012, Posey had an 8 fWAR season as a catcher. This is something reserved for the all-time greats. While it is hard to see him repeating it, it's not hard to see him putting up some 7 fWAR seasons in the future on a consistent basis. He's controlled for four more seasons and is still only going to be 26 years old at the start of 2013.
2) Bryce Harper, RF
While I think Bryce Harper is going to be the best player in baseball over the next decade and one of the all-time greats, other conditions make me put him #2 instead of #1. Harper has bat speed that is truly remarkable, which should lead to great future power numbers. Even more impressive than his bat speed is his arm strength. Seriously, watch this kid (yeah, he's still a kid since he'll be 20 at the start of 2013) throw a baseball. Truly remarkable: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jUpLILIHzEk
1) Mike Trout, CF
I really do think that Harper is going to be his better over the next 10 years, but it's just impossible to say anybody has more trade value right now. He's going to be a Super 2 (just like Harper) so his control won't be as incredible as someone like Longoria, Castro, Braun, or Moore, but he's going to be controlled for the better part of this decade. The thing that makes him the most valuable trade piece in baseball is the 2012 campaign he had. The sheer shock value is enough to make some teams give up whatever it takes to get him. While it is more likely that he regresses instead of progressing, he's still going to put up a ton of wins in value in a very cost-efficient manner.
I agree with most of the choices. Well researched list. I can only imagine how much time this post took to put together.
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