Much thought and theory goes into determining what players are valuable. More goes into determining how valuable those same players are in trades. Being as good as Miguel Cabrera doesn't make you incredibly value in a trade on its own, just as being the #1 prospect doesn't make you untouchable. It's the set of all variables and conditions that lead to a player being valuable to an organization. Different factors that go in include overall talent, years of team control, average annual value (salary), age, and health. For the sake of this exercise, players who are recently hurt will have less value than players who are not (even if the injury was a complete fluke that isn't likely to recur). If you are damaged goods, your immediate value goes down, since there's never a guarantee that you bounce back to what you once were (Justin Morneau, anyone?). Now, before we get into the countdown I think it is necessary to discuss those players that didn't make it. Without further ado, here are your honorable mentions for Most "Untradeable" Player in baseball.
Todd Frazier, UTIL, Reds:
Our list starts here with one of the more unique players on the list. Frazier's value comes from his control, his flexibility on the field, and the fact that he's entering his prime. However, as a late starter, it is really tough to tell how is future value projects. Can't put a lot of value on a guy who may have had the best year of his career in his rookie season.
Lance Lynn, SP, Cardinals
Solid starter who would easily make it as the #4 or 5 starter in a lot of rotations. However, even though Lynn could be valuable, this could be another situation where the best year was the first year. Some teams likely even view him as a relief arm going forward. I can accept him higher on other lists, because the talent appears to be there and the team control is quite a long time.
Freddie Freeman, 1B, Braves
The great news here is that he's only 23. The bad news is that he's had two full years as a starter and hasn't done squat. His power is lacking for a first baseman, and that really hurts his value. He's still controlled for 4 more years, but there is a genuine fear that he might just be an average first baseman, and that is not a truly valuable commodity. He's only an honorable mention because of his age.
Jeff Samardzija, SP, Cubs
Like Lance Lynn, but better. The conversion from reliever to starter was a success in the first year, but there's still a lot of inherent risk in trading for a starter with one year under his belt. It's possible Shark could be a solid #3 starter in a bunch of rotations, and I believe many teams would jump on that opportunity (the return would just be lackluster for the Cubs).
Carlos Gonzalez, LF, Rockies
Some may be puzzled by this placement, but I think it's justifiable. Trading for players is a battle between weighing risk and reward, and if you trade for Carlos Gonzalez you are taking on a buttload of risk. Swiftly regressing power, lackluster fielding ability, and injury concerns are all there for CarGo. While his contract appears to be solid gold, the risk likely outweighs the reward. Also, he plays left field!
Adrian Beltre, 3B, Rangers
Some can say the money is a lot, but it's fair for what you're getting. Third base is remarkably thin right now and Beltre is one of the best. The issue here is that when you trade a player, you want to maximize your future ROI (return on investment). If you gave away a bunch of years of control on a high ceiling pitcher like Trevor Bauer, do you want a likely-to-decline-quickly third baseman back for him? My money is that most say no, which is why Beltre has to be an honorable mention.
Jarrod Parker, SP, Athletics
The strikeout numbers left something to be desired, and the end results didn't match the ERA at all. However, Parker is just 24 and has a lot of control left. This alone makes him someone you don't want to trade away. Unfortunately, the ceiling isn't really there for Parker.
Ian Desmond, SS, Nationals
This one is probably going to be highly debated. Is the 5 fWAR season legitimate or no? If you believe yes, then Desmond shoots way up on this list. If you believe no, like I do, then Desmond is really a modest commodity. If you look at his numbers, the only thing that changed was the fact that a bunch more fly balls left the yard than they normally do for Desmond. It's possible he could sustain that, but the magic 8 ball says, "Not likely."
Trevor Bauer, SP, Diamondbacks
His stuff is incredible, but he doesn't appear to really know how to pitch. In the few starts I saw from him last year, there really wasn't a method to his madness. It was like he was a novice FPS player who just runs into a room with guns blazing. Once he figures out the art of pitching and truly commands his stuff, he could take off and become one of the best pitchers in the game. However, the word on the street is that he doesn't love listening to coaches and this isn't something you ever want to see from a young guy.
Craig Kimbrel, RP, Braves
I am incredibly tempted to put Kimbrel higher just because he has "best reliever of all time" potential. He's already cranking out mid-3's fWAR seasons like clockwork, and I'm not going to be surprised if he breaks 4 multiple times in his career. He's controlled for four more years, but it is really important to consider his position. It's not as hard to find good relievers, so you have to consider the return he would get you.
Pablo Sandoval, 3B, Giants
Injury issues, his general body type, and limited team control keep him low on this list. He's a great hitter who is only going to be 26 this year, but there is a ton of risk being taken on in any trade for Panda.
Trevor Cahill, SP, Diamondbacks
He's proven, consistent, young, cheap, and can be controlled through 2017. This is why he's ahead of the other pitchers that have been placed on this list. However, there really isn't much room to grow for Cahill, and ceiling/potential is an important part of making a trade.
Derek Holland, SP, Rangers
He has a lot of the same positive trade qualities that Cahill does. However, he's got just a little bit more upside assuming he can put it all together. The regression last year after a very good 2011 is a concern, but he's a good guy to take a gamble on.
Wade Miley, SP, Diamondbacks
I think he is going to be just a slightly better version of Cahill. He doesn't have stuff that will blow you away, but he's going to be a consistent innings eater and is controlled through 2017. This Cahill/Holland/Miley trio is incredibly interchangeable and I am not going to be surprised if some executives find that I am completely wrong.
Alcides Escobar, SS, Royals
Escobar's position is really what puts him on this list. His inability to produce offensively hurts his value a lot, and since his defensive ability doesn't seem to have a real concensus, I think he has to be kept down here in honorable mention territory. He's going into his prime, is cheap, and is controlled through 2015. More of a guy you center a deal around than someone you actively go out and trade for.
Matt Holliday, LF, Cardinals
I considered Holliday higher and lower on this list. He has the talent and control to be a top 50 asset, but he has a lot of money attached to his name and is also bound to start declining sooner or later. The reason he's up here and Beltre isn't is that I think Holliday's skill set is less likely to fall off a cliff. Marvelous bat speed and great strength in the wrists make him a great power hitter. He's not a fielder and doesn't run at all, so it's hard to see his value really plummeting any time soon.
Chase Headley, 3B, Padres
Headley sure would be awesome to trade for if you knew what you were going to get. It seems that every year something different happens that leads to an inflation or deflation of numbers. His BABIP, HR/FB, fielding, and other metrics are all over the place, leading to a blurry picture of his value. In his bottom years, he's still an above-average third baseman, but the age and lack of team control are big marks against his trade value.
Robinson Cano, 2B, Yankees
If he had multiple years of control remaining, we would be talking about him as a potential top 20 player. However, he's only got the one year and while he is extremely talented, you can't go and trade away multiple years of likely 3+ win performance for one year of a great player who is going to take a mountain of cash to retain long-term.
James Shields, SP, Rays
Great pitcher with 5 fWAR talent, but he'll be 31 next year and only comes with two years of control. If you have someone with upside, control, or plays at a thin position it's going to be hard to pull the trigger on Shields. The difference between Cano and Shields is signability. If Cano hits the market, he's easily the most prized commodity. Shields can be reasonably re-signed by any team in our hypothetical scenario that trades for him.
Denard Span, CF, Twins
Injuries have been a concern, but he's a great fielder and good base runner who doesn't completely lack competence at the plate. He is going to put up a lot of good seasons in CF, and he has at least one year of All-Star play in him. He also comes with several years of control and is fairly cheap.
Matt Harvey, SP, Mets
He has great stuff, MLB experience, and can slide into any rotation next year. He'll probably put up a couple of All-Star seasons in the future. He joins the next few players on this list as guys you don't trade unless you are getting true top-flight talent in return.
Mike Moustakas, 3B, Royals
I have concerns over his plate discipline and whether is power will ever truly show. I think that eventually he will become an All-Star third baseman, but there is a lot of risk in putting all of your eggs in the Moustakas basket.
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Diamondbacks
He has great power and is competent defensively. If he ever truly breaks out, he could be a top 5 first baseman in the game, but it's more likely he sits back in the 8-10 range like his counterpart on the North Side.
Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Cubs
I view Goldschmidt and Rizzo very similarly, with the primary difference being that Rizzo is great with the glove. With his old swing, he probably doesn't make this list. However, his new swing is shorter, more compact, and still generates tons of power as evidenced by his explosion at AAA last year followed by his solid performance in the majors. He'll have a couple All-Star worthy seasons, but I don't think he'll ever climb into that upper echelon of first basemen.
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