BBR^2 Part Three: Justin Upton

Unless you've been living under a rock, you're aware that the Justin Upton trade rumors are finally dead.  They aren't dead because someone finally talked sense into Kevin Towers, however.  They are dead because Upton is now paired with his brother in the outfield in Atlanta.  With a new ballpark to play in and a new uniform to wear for each game, Upton's next goal is to rebound from what was a rather disappointing 2012 campaign.  After putting up MVP numbers in 2011, Justin found himself playing injured throughout a lot of the 2012 season, which helped hinder his performance.  For many reasons, I believe that Upton's performance last year is not what we can expect in the future.  In fact, I expect several seasons similar to his 2011 season.  Because of this, Justin Upton is our first rebound candidate for BBR^2 2013.
 
Part One: 2012 Troubles
 

The root of Justin Upton's problems in 2012 was a thumb injury he suffered in mid-April.  Upton jammed his thumb sliding into 2nd base to break up a double-play and was never the same after.  He went on the 15 day disabled list, had fluid drained from his thumb, and dealt with a bone bruise that lingered throughout the season.  In my opinion, this thumb injury is what led to his biggest issue in performance in 2012: a drastic loss of power.  Upton posted a career-worst in Isolated Slugging Percentage (ISO) (.150), home runs (17), fly ball percentage (35.6%), and HR/FB ratio (11.0).  I don't know everything there is to know about swing mechanics, but I can say with confidence that the thumb injury Upton dealt with definitely was the thing behind these numbers.  Due to the drops in these power numbers, Upton came up with the following line in 2012:
 
628 PA/ 10.0% BB/ 19.3% K/ 108 wRC+/ 2.5 fWAR
 
Needless to say, that is a big step backwards from his monster 139 wRC+/6.4 fWAR breakout campaign in 2011.  To be fair to all players and to Upton himself, the thumb injury isn't all there is to blame here.  Justin posted career-worst numbers in the field as well.  His troubles at the plate carried over into the field and on the bases.  His numbers were down across the board.  Also in an attempt to be fair to Upton, his 2011 was scary good.  He did things at 23 years old that only once-in-a-generation talents do.  He posted a crazy 32 win value against fastballs in 2011, which is just absolutely nuts.  And really, his performance against breaking pitches wasn't all that bad last year as he had positive win values against all pitches except for curve balls.
 
One thing that might have impacted Upton's 2012 performance was his aggressiveness at the plate.  He swung at far fewer pitches both in and out of the strike zone.  Even though this led to increased contact rates and lower swing-and-miss rates, it's possible that this is a sign that Upton was rather passive in his offensive approach.  For a player who bears the calling card of power, passive isn't something he wants to be at the plate.  Whether this was related to his thumb, mental issues, or simply seeing different pitch types is unknown, but it absolutely impacted his performance as a player.
 
Part Two: Re-Emerging as an MVP Candidate and Fantasy Value
 
One thing about Justin Upton is obvious: he has the talent to be one of the best players in baseball.  He's got good speed, phenomenal power, and even a knack for playing the outfield.  His health is the biggest key to putting it all together like he did in 2011.  I can try to break down approach at the plate and BIP rates, but I think everything eventually rolls back into his thumb injury.  As minor as it seems, it's the kind of injury that can mess up a swing, mess up a throwing grip/motion, and create large amounts of negativity towards a player's performance.  So sticking with this, what is it that we expect from a healthy Upton?  Are we to simply assume that he will revert back to 2011 right away?  Really, I don't think the answer is that simple.
 
For many MLB players, the injury recovery process lasts a lot longer than just the time to recover from the injury (in terms of producing).  I don't know Upton's individual timetable, but his ability to do things like lifting weights was undoubtedly impacted by the injury.  However, I am comfortable making the assumption that he's far enough along to where the injury won't be an issue and has passed.  I think he'll go through his normal off season training routine and be perfectly fine for spring training.  To understand what that means for a 2013 campaign, let's look at what Upton provided for fantasy in 2011:
 
.289 BA/ 31 HR/ 88 RBI/ 105 Runs/ 21 SB/ .898 OPS
 
Now, for the skeptics in the crowd, here's what he did in his injured, power-depleted state in 2012:
 
.280 BA/ 17 HR/ 67 RBI/ 107 Runs/ 18 SB/ .785 OPS
 
What's really nice here is that we essentially get a "floor" and a "ceiling."  I put them in quotes because it's possible Upton out-produces 2011 and it's possible injuries make it tough for him to put up the playing time necessary to repeat 2012.  However, what can be done is that we can make some pretty comfortable assumptions.  Let's say for instance that Upton misses some playing time and isn't quite back to his old self, but he is better than last year.  If we split the difference (what I think is probably fair), we can expect this from Upton in 2013:
 
.285 BA/ 24 HR/ 78 RBI/ 106 Runs/ 20 SB/ .840 OPS
 
Now, it's important to take two things into account:
 
1) Upton isn't in Chase Field any more.  He's out in Atlanta.  This might negatively influence his numbers since it's pretty nice to hit out in the desert.
2) Upton has moved into a lineup that has a LOT of potential.  He's surrounded by B.J. Upton, Freddie Freeman, Jason Heyward, Brian McCann, and Dan Uggla.  This is a group that can score a bunch if they figure everything out.
 
With those conditions in mind, this is what I'm predicting from Upton in 2013:
 
.285 BA/ 28 HR/ 105 RBI/ 100 Runs/ 15 SB/ .865 OPS
 
Ideally, Upton benefits from the players around him and thrives in the number 3 or 4 spot in the Braves order.  He's got an incredible ceiling that will likely be seen if he can avoid injury.  I'm not sure that I would spend a first round pick on him due to injury concerns, but it's justifiable to select him in the 2nd round and be comfortable.  After all, he's got the talent to play like a first-rounder.
 
Due to all of this, Justin Upton is a rebound candidate in 2013.

BBR^2 Part Two: Ivan Nova

Over the weekend, I kicked off the BBR^2 series with a review of my 2012 performance and a breakout prediction for Salvador Perez.  Today I'm going to switch gears a little bit and look at the opposite kind of player: a rebound candidate.  In 2011, Yankees starter Ivan Nova enjoyed success in his rookie campaign, posting a respectable 3.70 ERA with a 2.6 fWAR in 165.1 IP, despite only coming up with 5.33 strikeouts per nine innings.  These accomplishments left him 4th overall in American League Rookie of the Year voting and helped him rack up 16 wins with the Yankees.  However, 2012 was a completely different story for Nova.  Despite vastly improving his K/9 ratio from 5.33 to 8.08, Nova's ERA jumped by 1.32 to a terrible 5.02.  These results came despite improvements in xFIP, SIERA, K/9, and BB/9.  So why, given these conditions, did Nova's end results drop off so much?  Let's take a look.
 
Part One: 2012 Woes
 

To understand the difference in Nova's performance, it truly is important to consider balls in play.  Nova saw his line drive % (LD%) jump 4 points along with witnessing a 7.5% drop in ground ball rate.  Unsurprisingly, this led to an increased H/9 ratio of 10.3 and a grossly inflated HR/9 ratio of 1.5 (up from 0.7).  For those who want to keep track, these are Nova's 2012 numbers:
 
170.1 IP/ 3.92 xFIP/ .331 BABIP/ 8.08 K/9/ 2.96 BB/9/ 1.48 HR/9/ 72.5% LOB/ 45.2% GB/ 16.6 HR/FB
 
The near-doubling of Nova's HR/FB ratio is easily the most concerning part of his performance.  While his peripherals suggest his end results should be much, much better, it's impossible to ignore that lots of quality contact was made against him last year.  But really, why would this happen?  Was he hanging pitches, was he tipping pitches? What was up?  Well, to understand this it's nice to look at his individual pitches:
 
Fastball: Ivan Nova threw his fastball a lot less in 2012 and the results were devastating.  After dropping his FB% more than 7% with slightly increased velocity (92.8 up from 92.4), Nova saw a 24.8 win value change in his fastball.  In 2011, the number was 1.2, suggesting the pitch was acceptable.  In 2012, the number was -23.6, which suggests that the pitch was absolutely terrible.
 
Slider and Change: Both pitches saw near-5 point drops in win value.  The slider was thrown 2.5% more often than in 2011 with greatly increased velocity (87.3 up from 85.7).  The changeup was thrown 1.3% less often with roughly the same velocity.  Both pitches were well into the negatives for win value.
 
Curveball: This is the one pitch Nova got significantly better with in 2012, and my guess would be that it's the primary reason for his increased strikeout rate.  Nova threw his curveball nearly 29% of the time in 2012 at its typical velocity.  The pitch saw a win value jumped from -2.2 to 5.8, making it Nova's best pitch by a country mile.
 
To sum up all of Nova's pitches, he threw them all with either greatly or slightly increased velocity and racked up a bunch of negative value with them.  He threw his fastball less and his breaking pitches more, which serves as likely justification for why he racked up more strikeouts, but served up more home runs (because of the increased likelihood of hanging breaking balls).  I don't have the time or resources to watch all of Nova's 2012 outings, so if a Yankees fan wants to chime in and comment on this, it would be nice.
 
Part Two: Turning it Around
 
So what does Nova have to do to turn things around?  Well, he really was a different style of pitcher in 2012.  Rather than pitching to contact and getting lots of ground balls, Nova cranked up the velocity and frequency of breaking balls in an attempt to rack up the strikeouts.  Ultimately this transition hurt his end results, but it could lead to positive future changes.  To best understand why I think that will happen, it's important to introduce a new fangraphs concept: FDP wins.
 
Essentially, FDP wins attempt to account for the non-FIP stats.  They aim to calculate the value in performance of a pitcher in his ball-in-play types, his LOB%, and the combined overall performance.  As expected from his high LOB%, Nova's LOB wins were high (0.9 in total).  Where Nova was hurt was in BIP wins, where his significant jump in LD% and drop in GB% greatly hurt him.  Ultimately, I think using a better mix of pitches in 2012 can help Nova adjust these rates to his advantage.  While LD% isn't completely independent of pitcher performance, it is a number that tends to be rather volatile.  If Nova can turn 2-3% of his line drives into ground balls, he should see a big drop in his ERA.  Better yet, if Nova finds some normalization in his HR/FB rate, his ERA will drop significantly.  Now, giving up a lot of LD suggests a lot of hard contact, and thus it's possible that the fly balls he was giving up weren't your typical fly balls. All of this eventually ties into his incredibly high .331 BABIP (jumped from .283 in 2011).
 
If Nova can fix his problems after the ball makes contact with the bat, I think his 2012 end results will look a lot like this:
 
190 IP/ 3.90 ERA/ 3.65 xFIP/ .305 BABIP/ 7.8 K/9/ 3.05 BB/9/ 1.00 HR/9/ 73% LOB/ 48% GB/ 10.5% HR/FB
 
Part Three: Fantasy Value
 

A lot of hype surrounded Nova for the 2012 fantasy baseball season.  After all, he posted a 3.70 ERA and recorded 16 wins for the Bronx Bombers in 2011.  However, as noted, Nova dropped off quite a bit.  While still posting plenty of wins (12) and a fair number of strikeouts (153), Nova's 5.02 ERA and near 1.5 WHIP were simply unacceptable in fantasy leagues.  Now, as seen above, there is quite a lot of incentive in drafting Ivan Nova for 2013 despite the obvious risk involved.  If you're in a league with wins, he still plays for the Yankees and will get plenty of run support.  If you're in a league with quality starts, Nova was much better on the road last year than at home.  I anticipate that a drop in overall numbers leads to favorable road splits (he posted a 4.26 ERA on the road, which is essentially a quality start every time out).  With that in mind, this is what I would anticipate from Nova in 2013:
 
15 wins/ 3.90 ERA/ 167 K/ 0 SV/ 1.205 WHIP
 
These are decently exciting numbers, especially from someone who is going to be available at the tail end of the draft.  If you're in a 12 team league with a roster size in the low-mid 20's, Nova should be a target in your last 4 rounds (unless you've drafted tons of pitching early for some reasons).  Now, in a quality start league, Nova may even go undrafted and is a quality waiver wire pickup early in the season.  All in all, I think Nova is someone who should be targeted for the draft.  I am a fan of the way he approached his games last season.  He was more selective with his fastball and put more trust in his breaking pitches.  While the results weren't there yet in 2012, I think a full season with two off seasons dedicated to this new approach will be a long-term benefit that makes Nova a quality 4th starter.  He's on my list of sleepers for 2013, and I wouldn't be surprised if he really helps a pitching staff late in the draft.  Also, because of his status as a sleeper and relative unknown, he should be a target in keeper leagues (especially those that feature wins).  If he does what I think he will do, he turns into a high quality keeper that can help you rest easy knowing your pitching staff will be strong.
 
As of now, I officially label Nova as a rebound candidate for 2013.

A Tribute to Ron Santo (Guest Post on "The Payoff Pitch")

To understand exactly what Ron Santo's mark on baseball has been, you almost have to be a Cubs fan (a reason why I'm guessing NufCed has asked me to write this article).  Everyone knows that Santo was a great third baseman, and most people can probably tell you that he was the long-time color guy on Cubs radio on WGN.  However, neither of those things are what define Santo.  Being a hall of famer isn't what Santo was about.  Being a radio announcer isn't what Santo was about.  So what was Ron Santo about?  Well, it comes down to two things: perseverance and a love for the Cubs so deep that it was and will forever be unmatched.
 
Before Ron Santo can be talked about as one of the greatest third basemen to ever play, it's necessary to talk about the troubles that Santo faced as an individual.  At 18 years old, Santo was diagnosed with juvenile diabetes and was given a life expectancy of 25 years.  While he was able to deal with the condition for most of his career, he eventually would have to have the lower parts of both of his legs amputated.  Rather than be damaged by this fact, Santo used his condition to help raise money for the Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation.  From 1979 until his death, he helped raise $65 million for the cause.  Despite being given the 25 year life expectancy, Santo lived a strong life until his death on December 2nd, 2010 at the age of 70 years old.  His efforts to raise money for juvenile diabetes research served as a foundation for many research efforts to come.
 
While his raising money for finding a cure for juvenile diabetes will always be his greatest achievement, Santo's legacy will always be as "the greatest Cubs fan who ever lived."  Nobody, and I mean *nobody*, loved the Chicago Cubs as much as Ron Santo.  How much did he love them?  Well, Santo became the first ever player to invoke 10 and 5 no-trade rights in the major leagues when he blocked a trade to the California Angels.  His love for the Cubs poured out through his work in the broadcast booth as well.  Even though most radio announcers are asked to be as fair as possible, Santo would frequently cheer for the Cubs while calling games on WGN radio.  How much of a Cubs fan was he?  Well, in the franchise's long list of cursed moments and unfortunate displays, Santo is the center.  In 1969, during one of the most unlikely collapses of all time, a black cat walked in front of Santo as he was on deck to hit.  On the day he died, Cubs fans mourned the loss of their leader.
 
What Santo is know most for in the baseball community is his play as a third baseman.  Santo would frequently click his heels after Cubs wins that frequently came because of his efforts.  Santo recorded a career .976 OPS in victories along with 211 of his 342 career home runs.  Despite being a fantastic offensive third baseman who posted 62.4 WAR on offense in his career, Santo was best know for his play in the field.  He was a hard-working, gritty, smooth-handed fielder who would frequently dive to knock balls down and throw on to first to get the runner.  It really is too bad how overlooked Santo is as a player.  He led the league in walks 4 times, on-base percentage 2 times, sacrifice flies three times, and triples once.  He finished with a career OPS+ of 125 with over 1,100 career walks and a total rWAR of 70.
 
So really, when you think of Ron Santo and his place in baseball history, don't think first of him as a hall-of-fame third baseman.  Think of him as a humanitarian and the ultimate fan of the game of baseball.  You will be truly missed, Ron Santo.  May your legacy be strong and may your soul rest in peace.

BBR^2 2013: Part One- 2012 Review and Salvador Perez

As some of you may know, last year I ran a series on this blog called "Breakout, Bust, or Rebound?" in which I featured predictions for certain players.  Reader response to the series seemed to be positive, and looking back on the articles the results were quite good.  Therefore, I've brought the series back for 2013 as we get ready for pitchers and catchers to report in the coming weeks.  This year I am expanding BBR by adding a second R to the title representing the word "Repeat."  Last year I got caught up in my article about Matt Kemp by not having a word to apply to what I wanted to say about him.  He didn't bust, he wasn't about to breakout, and it's not like he was rebounding from anything.  All I wanted to say was that I expected him to "Repeat" by following up a great season with another great season.  With that in mind, let's take a quick look at what I predicted for players last year:
 
Howie Kendrick (Breakout, but more "Repeat"):

 
.291 BA/83 runs/14 HR/92 RBI/14 SB
 
Actual (Repeat):
 
.287 BA/57 runs/8 HR/67 RBI/14 SB (wound up spending a lot of time 1-2 spots lower in the order than I anticipated)
 
Johnny Cueto (Bust):
 
6.30 K/ 2.71 BB/ 0.99 HR/ .282 BABIP/ 43% GB/ 9.4 HRFB
 
3.99 xFIP/ 3.85 tERA/ 4.02 SIERA/ 2.2 fWAR
 
Actual (Breakout):
 
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6893&position=P#battedball
 
David Freese (Breakout):
 
640 PA/ .310 BA/ .374 OBP/ .471 SLG/ .845 OPS (131 OPS+)/ 4.3 fWAR
 
Actual (Breakout):
 
567 PA/ .293 BA/ .372 OBP/.467 SLG/ .839 OPS (129 OPS+)/ 4.1 fWAR
 
Joe Mauer (Rebound):
 
140 G/ 590 PA/ .325 BA/ .370 OBP/ .450 SLG (128 OPS+)/ 6.1 WAR (5.6 oWAR/ 0.5 dWAR)- 78% G at C
 
Actual (Rebound):
 
147 G/ 641 PA/ .319 BA/ .416 OBP/ .446 SLG (141 OPS+)/ 4.1 WAR (4.9 oWAR/-0.9 dWAR)- 50.3% G at C
 
Ryan Vogelsong (Bust):
 
140 IP/ 3.58 ERA (106 ERA+)/ 6.40 K/9/ 3.58 BB/9/ 1.3 fWAR
 
Actual (Repeat):
 
189 IP/ 3.37 ERA (103 ERA+)/ 7.5 K/9/ 2.9 BB/9/ 2.6 fWAR
 
Andrew McCutchen (Breakout):
 
.275 BA/ 95 Runs/ 27 HR/ 95 RBI/ 25 SB
 
Actual (Breakout):
 
.327 BA/ 107 Runs/31 HR/96 RBI/ 20 SB
 
Adam Dunn (Rebound)- Rebound (didn't actually provide numbers as this was the 1st of the BBR articles)
 
Hanley Ramirez (Rebound):
 
.280 BA/ 87 Runs/ 20 HR/ 85 RBI/ 25 SB
 
Actual (Rebound):
 
.257 BA/ 79 Runs/ 24 HR/ 92 RBI/ 21 SB
 
Matt Kemp (Repeat):
 
.310 BA/ .382 OBP/ .553 SLG/  .935 OPS (160 OPS+)/ 7.5 WAR
 
Actual (Repeat- minus injury):
 
.303 BA/ .367 OBP/ .538 SLG/ .906 OPS (147 OPS+)/ 3.5 fWAR
 
Madison Bumgarger (Breakout):
 
220 IP/ 8.65 K/9/ 1.91 BB/9/ 2.95 xFIP/ 47.0% GB/ 35.0% FB/ 6.4 fWAR
 
Actual (Repeat):
 
208 IP/ 8.25 K/9/ 2.12 BB/9/ 3.45 xFIP/47.9% GB/ 33.3% FB/ 3.4 fWAR
 
So really, I did very well with position players and completely flopped on the pitchers.  This doesn't surprise me, especially given fangraphs' recent research into FDP wins and the revelation that LOB% is a significant part of pitching that needs to be taken into account.  I'm not making any excuses however, since that's something that anyone could have considered when making predictions and I admit to missing it.  That said, I'm pretty proud of my results and would like to do it again for 2013.  Let's get to our first 2013 issue: breakout candidate Salvador Perez.
 
BBR^2 Part One: Salvador Perez, C, Kansas City Royals
 

At some point last year, you probably heard or read about my love of Salvador Perez and how much of a young star I think he is going to be.  A lot of people will probably disagree with me, but I think he's got the strongest throwing arm in the Major Leagues at any position.  The evidence?  Last year he set the Royals' pickoff record with 8 career pickoffs in only 113 career games at catcher.  That's 11.5 pickoffs per 162 games! (for context, Yadier Molina had 5 in 136 games at catcher last year, a rate of 6 per 162) What else?  Last year he led the American League by catching 42% of base runners trying to steal.  That's close to Yadier's career rate of 45%.  In short, Perez has the running game on lock down by himself.  As a result of this, the returns on his defensive rates are pretty remarkable (1.8 dWAR, 10 defensive runs saved, and a 5.4 UZR in 113 games).  However, it's not just his throwing arm that makes Perez a breakout candidate.  To understand why he's the lead off player for this year, we need to look at what he's done in the majors offensively:
 
115 G/ .311 BA/ .339 OBP/ .471 SLG/ 119 wRC+/ 4.1% BB/ 10.2% K/ .160 ISO
 
Mix in his remarkable defensive numbers and Perez has already produced 4.1 fWAR in his career.  That's 5.78 fWAR per 162 games.  So really, the first question that comes to mind is, "With numbers this good, how could he possibly break out?"  Well for one, he plays in Kansas City and is a relative unknown around the league.  Second, his 115 games are spread out over two seasons, so we haven't yet seen what he can do over a full season of wear and tear.  That being said, I think it's reasonable to assume that Perez can hit for a high average, hit for a ton of power, and provide that excellent defense behind the plate.  The next question then becomes a matter of sustainability.  To start to look into that, we'll consider Perez' BIP rates:
 
1.40 GB/FB ratio/ 25.8% LD (not a typo)/ 43.3% GB/ 30.9% FB/ 11.5% HR/FB
 
Basically, Salvador hits a ton of line drives and absolutely smashes the ball.  This is no doubt due to his great strength and the ferocity with which he can swing the bat.  However, Perez does have the reputation of being a bit of a hacker at the plate.  But really, it's not like Perez has awful discipline at the plate.  He has positive win values against fastballs, sliders, and changeups in his short time in the majors.  This suggests that he typically can recognize what is coming, but he doesn't have the patience to wait for that one perfect pitch to hit.  This is the biggest reason I believe he ends up hitting so many ground balls.  He makes contact with 86.2% of pitches outside the zone that he swings at, but since those pitches are out of the zone, my guess is that a lot of the resulting contact is weak and rolled over.  Knowing this, I think Perez' offensive approach is pretty sensible.  He recognizes pitches, has great power, and hits a bunch of line drives.  I think this will lead to a bunch of future seasons with 20-25 HR and a whole bunch of doubles, keeping his ISO high and his BB% low.  All of this now considered, this is what I expect from Perez over a season of about 145 games in 2013:
 
145 G/ .305 BA/ .334 OBP/ .495 SLG/ .190 ISO/ 4.2% BB/ 10.5% K/ 8.5 UZR/ -3.0 BSR/ 5.0 fWAR
 
Fantasy Value
 

Ah, we finally come to the part that people actually care about.  As a precursor to this part of the write-up, I'll say that I drafted Salvador Perez with the second-to-last pick in the 14th round of the competitive league I'm in on the message board I frequent.  Since he's not yet established, my guess is that Perez will be taken late in most leagues that don't feature a keeper aspect.  I think that Perez is easily the #1 option for bench catcher, and I think he's a good option in BA and OPS leagues for the UTIL spot since he gives you flexibility at catcher.  I might go far as to say that one of the better fantasy strategies this year is to ignore catcher in the early rounds, build the other parts of your offense, and then snag up Perez as your 8th or 9th offensive option.  Why am I saying all of this?  Well, let's look at what Perez did in fantasy last year in his limited time:
 
.301 BA/ 38 runs/ 11 HR/ 39 RBI/ 0 SB/ .798 OPS
 
Projected out over a full season, that's roughly:
 
.301 BA/ 72 runs/ 21 HR/ 83 RBI/ 0 SB/ .798 OPS
 
Those numbers are really good from a late round draft pick, especially at the catcher position.  Given that I expect guys like Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, and other Royals offensive players to bounce back, I think those run numbers and RBI totals could be even higher, though I think it's safe to assume that Perez will be right around those numbers in 2013.  Now it's time to get to my fantasy predictions for him for 2013:
 
.305 BA/ 75 runs/ 23 HR/ 87 RBI/ 0 SB/ .829 OPS
 
Optimistic?  Yes.  Unrealistic?  Absolutely not.  Perez has the potential to be one of (if not the) best catchers in the league in the future.  Without looking into it incredibly deeply, I think Perez might be the steal of the draft for whoever takes him.  I would give him a pretty early look in keeper leagues, and I'd start considering him as early as round 10 in standard leagues depending on who you are playing with.  If you're looking for strategy, here's what I did in my early, slow-progressing fantasy draft: I took Joe Mauer in round 3, knowing he had C/1B status and thus will play more than most catchers.  This is an overdraft by most measures, but I did this planning to target Perez in the later rounds.  Now I'll have a C/1B/UTIL rotation of Joe Mauer, Ike Davis, and Salvador Perez.  I figure I can get plenty of HR and RBI from Davis and Perez, a strong .800+ OPS from all three players, and a solid number of runs with each player.  Another way to go about it, as mentioned earlier, would be to ignore the catcher spot in the first 9 founds while stocking up on all other offensive positions and possibly grabbing either a couple starters or perhaps a reliever.  This strategy, however, does depend on your ability to get Perez, because catcher will be extremely weak at this point in the draft.
 
So there, we have the first edition of BBR^2.  I officially stamp Salvador Perez as a breakout candidate for the 2013 season.