Part One: 2012 Woes
To understand the difference in Nova's performance, it truly is important to consider balls in play. Nova saw his line drive % (LD%) jump 4 points along with witnessing a 7.5% drop in ground ball rate. Unsurprisingly, this led to an increased H/9 ratio of 10.3 and a grossly inflated HR/9 ratio of 1.5 (up from 0.7). For those who want to keep track, these are Nova's 2012 numbers:
170.1 IP/ 3.92 xFIP/ .331 BABIP/ 8.08 K/9/ 2.96 BB/9/ 1.48 HR/9/ 72.5% LOB/ 45.2% GB/ 16.6 HR/FB
The near-doubling of Nova's HR/FB ratio is easily the most concerning part of his performance. While his peripherals suggest his end results should be much, much better, it's impossible to ignore that lots of quality contact was made against him last year. But really, why would this happen? Was he hanging pitches, was he tipping pitches? What was up? Well, to understand this it's nice to look at his individual pitches:
Fastball: Ivan Nova threw his fastball a lot less in 2012 and the results were devastating. After dropping his FB% more than 7% with slightly increased velocity (92.8 up from 92.4), Nova saw a 24.8 win value change in his fastball. In 2011, the number was 1.2, suggesting the pitch was acceptable. In 2012, the number was -23.6, which suggests that the pitch was absolutely terrible.
Slider and Change: Both pitches saw near-5 point drops in win value. The slider was thrown 2.5% more often than in 2011 with greatly increased velocity (87.3 up from 85.7). The changeup was thrown 1.3% less often with roughly the same velocity. Both pitches were well into the negatives for win value.
Curveball: This is the one pitch Nova got significantly better with in 2012, and my guess would be that it's the primary reason for his increased strikeout rate. Nova threw his curveball nearly 29% of the time in 2012 at its typical velocity. The pitch saw a win value jumped from -2.2 to 5.8, making it Nova's best pitch by a country mile.
To sum up all of Nova's pitches, he threw them all with either greatly or slightly increased velocity and racked up a bunch of negative value with them. He threw his fastball less and his breaking pitches more, which serves as likely justification for why he racked up more strikeouts, but served up more home runs (because of the increased likelihood of hanging breaking balls). I don't have the time or resources to watch all of Nova's 2012 outings, so if a Yankees fan wants to chime in and comment on this, it would be nice.
Part Two: Turning it Around
So what does Nova have to do to turn things around? Well, he really was a different style of pitcher in 2012. Rather than pitching to contact and getting lots of ground balls, Nova cranked up the velocity and frequency of breaking balls in an attempt to rack up the strikeouts. Ultimately this transition hurt his end results, but it could lead to positive future changes. To best understand why I think that will happen, it's important to introduce a new fangraphs concept: FDP wins.
Essentially, FDP wins attempt to account for the non-FIP stats. They aim to calculate the value in performance of a pitcher in his ball-in-play types, his LOB%, and the combined overall performance. As expected from his high LOB%, Nova's LOB wins were high (0.9 in total). Where Nova was hurt was in BIP wins, where his significant jump in LD% and drop in GB% greatly hurt him. Ultimately, I think using a better mix of pitches in 2012 can help Nova adjust these rates to his advantage. While LD% isn't completely independent of pitcher performance, it is a number that tends to be rather volatile. If Nova can turn 2-3% of his line drives into ground balls, he should see a big drop in his ERA. Better yet, if Nova finds some normalization in his HR/FB rate, his ERA will drop significantly. Now, giving up a lot of LD suggests a lot of hard contact, and thus it's possible that the fly balls he was giving up weren't your typical fly balls. All of this eventually ties into his incredibly high .331 BABIP (jumped from .283 in 2011).
If Nova can fix his problems after the ball makes contact with the bat, I think his 2012 end results will look a lot like this:
190 IP/ 3.90 ERA/ 3.65 xFIP/ .305 BABIP/ 7.8 K/9/ 3.05 BB/9/ 1.00 HR/9/ 73% LOB/ 48% GB/ 10.5% HR/FB
Part Three: Fantasy Value
A lot of hype surrounded Nova for the 2012 fantasy baseball season. After all, he posted a 3.70 ERA and recorded 16 wins for the Bronx Bombers in 2011. However, as noted, Nova dropped off quite a bit. While still posting plenty of wins (12) and a fair number of strikeouts (153), Nova's 5.02 ERA and near 1.5 WHIP were simply unacceptable in fantasy leagues. Now, as seen above, there is quite a lot of incentive in drafting Ivan Nova for 2013 despite the obvious risk involved. If you're in a league with wins, he still plays for the Yankees and will get plenty of run support. If you're in a league with quality starts, Nova was much better on the road last year than at home. I anticipate that a drop in overall numbers leads to favorable road splits (he posted a 4.26 ERA on the road, which is essentially a quality start every time out). With that in mind, this is what I would anticipate from Nova in 2013:
15 wins/ 3.90 ERA/ 167 K/ 0 SV/ 1.205 WHIP
These are decently exciting numbers, especially from someone who is going to be available at the tail end of the draft. If you're in a 12 team league with a roster size in the low-mid 20's, Nova should be a target in your last 4 rounds (unless you've drafted tons of pitching early for some reasons). Now, in a quality start league, Nova may even go undrafted and is a quality waiver wire pickup early in the season. All in all, I think Nova is someone who should be targeted for the draft. I am a fan of the way he approached his games last season. He was more selective with his fastball and put more trust in his breaking pitches. While the results weren't there yet in 2012, I think a full season with two off seasons dedicated to this new approach will be a long-term benefit that makes Nova a quality 4th starter. He's on my list of sleepers for 2013, and I wouldn't be surprised if he really helps a pitching staff late in the draft. Also, because of his status as a sleeper and relative unknown, he should be a target in keeper leagues (especially those that feature wins). If he does what I think he will do, he turns into a high quality keeper that can help you rest easy knowing your pitching staff will be strong.
As of now, I officially label Nova as a rebound candidate for 2013.
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