1) No first baseman reached 5 fWAR. For some perspective, regard the following total number of players at the position that reached 5 fWAR in each of the past few seasons:
2011: 5
2010: 6
2009: 7
2008: 4
2007: 3
2006: 4
2005: 4
2004: 3
2003: 4
2002: 5
And that's just the last 10 years. I went through fangraphs to try to find the last year where no first baseman reached 5 fWAR. The last time it happened was 1981, a strike-shortened season where only 103 games were played. However, it's not like these seasons just had one guy doing it either. The last time, in a non strike-shortened season, that multiple first basemen didn't have 5 fWAR was 1974! Arguments against this will be "well Joey Votto got hurt, Miguel Cabrera moved off the position, and Albert Pujols started miserably." Well, I eventually stopped looking for another season where a first baseman didn't reach 5 fWAR, because I wasn't finding anything. Every year has its injuries, flukes, etc and 2012 was the only I could find where a first baseman didn't reach 5 fWAR (kudos to the person who goes and finds one from a non strike-shortened season).***
***= This is among qualified players. Joey Votto reached 5.9 fWAR in 111 games.
2) The average fWAR among the top 10 first basemen was 3.71. This was lower than catcher (4.09), 2nd base (4.54), shortstop (4.07), and 3rd base (5.41). I know that positional overlap skews this a little bit (and this is the reason I didn't worry about outfielders), but I think the point is clear.
3) Only 14 first basemen produced the 2.0 fWAR threshold. This is the threshold that is believed to be an average player league-wide (not what an average player should be, just what happens to be your average position player).
Now that we've looked at a few of the details regarding first base in 2012, it's time to think about why this happened. There are a few explanations listed below:
-Albert Pujols had a .570 OPS in September, and .800 OPS in May, and a .735 OPS in Sept/Oct
-Joey Votto dealt with a knee injury that limited him to 111 games. At the pace he was on (.053 fWAR per game), he would have been an 8.61 fWAR player.
-Miguel Cabrera moved away from the position to play third base.
-Mark Teixeira was limited to 123 games. At his pace he would produce 3.8 fWAR in a full season.
-Justin Smoak and Eric Hosmer, two young players with tremendous potential to produce, combined to lose 1.4 wins
So what does this mean for the position? Where are the young stars and great players that made this position so great for so many years? Well, that's where we are going next. The following players, along with elder statesmen like Joey Votto, Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez, and Albert Pujols figure to help the position recover in the 2013 season:
Player Number One: Breakout Candidate Freddie Freeman
In 2012, Freddie Freeman showed us a glimpse of what he could eventually do as a Major League first baseman. He improved on his 2011 stats in the following ways:
BB%: up from 8.3 to 10.3
K%: down from 22.4 to 20.8
ISO: up from .166 to .196 (measure of power)
UZR: up from -12.6 to -4.0 (defensive metric)
BsR: up from -4.3 to -0.9 (base running metric)
O-Swing%: down from 36.8 to 32.4 (how frequently he swings at pitches outside of the strike zone)
GB/FB ratio: down from 1.23 to 1.01
LD%: up from 23.0 to 26.0 (this stat can be extremely dynamic, so this may not be as important)
wFB (performance against fastballs): up from 5.5 to 9.3
wCH (change ups): up from 0.8 to 4.4
Due to all of these changes, Freeman went from 0.9 fWAR in 157 games in 2011 to 2.0 fWAR in 147 games in 2012. However, it's rather disappointing in a sense. Despite increasing his line drive percentage and improving his GB/FB ratio, his overall end results on offense got worse. This is because Freeman, a traditionally high-BABIP player, saw a big dropoff in his BABIP (.339 in 2011 compared to .295 in 2012). While part of his is due to hitting more fly balls, it's still surprising given Freeman's staggering line drive totals. So while Freeman was able to improve his game all across the board (his defensive runs saved and Rtot/yr numbers were also better on defense), he didn't quite get over the hump because of the fact that his BABIP was so low. Now, it's quite possible that .295 is just what Freeman is going to have to get used to in the bigs if he keeps everything else up. However, I'm a bit of an optimist and I think we should expect something around .320 (a common fangraphs prediction). If this happens and Freeman continues to develop on his power, I think the following results are realistic:
152 G/ 9.5% BB/ 21.3% K/ .204 ISO/ .320 BABIP/ 14.5% HR/FB/ 135 wRC+/ -5.0 UZR
Throwing this all together probably makes Freeman something close to a 3.5-4.0 fWAR first baseman (I'd try to predict a solid number, but that's hard to do given changes in league environment).
To speed things up a bit compared to other BBR^2 posts, I'm going to jump right into fantasy numbers. Given that Freeman, by my predictions, will be putting up significant ISO, BABIP, and BB numbers, I think he is posed for a pretty big fantasy campaign. Here's what he did in 2012 in 147 games:
.259 BA/ 23 HR/ 91 runs/ 94 RBI/ 2 SB
This is truly not a bad fantasy season. The run and RBI numbers are solid, he contributed plenty of homers, but his batting average was lower than desired and provides no stolen base value. For him to be a truly great first base option, he either needs to belt more homers or raise his average. Since I think the power part of Freeman's game is pretty much where it's going to be for most of his career, my money is on the average improving quite a bit. Also, since Freeman is going to be part of a better lineup (with B.J. and Justin Upton back and possible rebounds from Brian McCann and Dan Uggla) I think the run and RBI totals could see quite a boost as well. All of that being said, here's what I think Freeman will produce in fantasy in 2013:
.275 BA/ 24 HR/ 95 runs/ 110 RBI/ 3 SB
In short, I think Freeman is going to hit in either the 5 or 6 spot in the order, with Justin Upton, Jason Heyward, and either McCann or Uggla in front of him (he spent most of his time in the 5 hole last year). With these factors considered, Freeman is the first breakout candidate at first base for 2013.
Player Number Two: Breakout Candidate Anthony Rizzo
When Anthony Rizzo showed up to make his debut in the majors in 2011, he had a long swing. This created troubles in catching up with MLB fastballs, which ultimately led to timing issues and being absolutely owned by MLB caliber breaking pitches (especially change ups). Then, something great happened for Rizzo: Theo Epstein was acquired by the Cubs to run their baseball operations department, and he brought back former comrades Jed Hoyer and Jason McLeod, who were head dogs in San Diego. Over the off season heading into 2012, Rizzo focused on changing his swing. The results? Incredibly impressive. We'll start off with what Rizzo managed to do in 70 games at AAA Iowa:
23 HR/ .342 BA/ .404 OBP/ .696 SLG/ 1.101 OPS
Yes, 23 home runs in 70 games. That's a pace of 53 home runs per season with an OPS of 1.101. In fairness, this is still in the PCL, so all offensive results come with a massive boulder of salt, but the results are still enough to be impressive. As it should be, judgment on Rizzo would be truly reserved until he showed he could translate his new approach and massive AAA numbers into quality MLB play. Here's what Rizzo was able to do in 87 games at the MLB level in 2012:
15 HR/ .285 BA/ .342 OBP/ .463 SLG/ .805 OPS
As good as in AAA? No, not even close. More impressive than in AAA? Definitely. While the sample size is small and the park is generally favorable to hitters, Rizzo impressed with a 119 OPS+, 116 wRC+, and 1.8 fWAR in his short time in the majors. It's important when looking at small sample sizes to look for factors that may be flukes. Across the board, Rizzo was pretty par for the course. BABIP was .310, ISO was .178, HR/FB was 18.1 (perhaps a bit high for most players, but Rizzo is a power hitter), and a 24.4% LD rate. The 2012 end results were good, not great, and there weren't many reasons to believe the performance was a fluke. Rizzo has good power, makes plenty of contact, and is an ace in the field (5.3 UZR and 4 defensive runs saved). What does this mean for Rizzo in 2013? Well, I think he'll break out in the form of keeping similar rates with more playing time:
145 games/ 8.5% BB/ 18% K/ .300 BABIP/ .190 ISO/ .280 BA/ 10.0 UZR/ 120 wRC+
Ultimately this puts Rizzo in the same ballpark as Freeman. Slightly worse on offense, but much better on defense. He should put up an fWAR between 3.5 and 4. So how about fantasy value? Well, since Rizzo only played in 87 games in 2012, I'll post his stats per 162 games:
.285 BA/ 82 runs/ 28 HR/ 89 RBI/ 5 SB
Since I really don't expect Rizzo's raw rates to get all that better (after the adjustment for playing more MLB games with more travel and an assumed increase in talent level from age 22 to 23), there isn't a ton that needs to be done in terms of predicting his totals for the 2013 fantasy baseball season (assuming he plays around 155 games):
.280 BA/ 80 runs/ 27 HR/ 95 RBI/ 10 SB
Looks really, really solid for a fantasy player. Hopefully my analysis was as fair as possible and these results actually happen. Certainly would lead to a great breakout campaign for a young first baseman.
Player Number Three: Rebound Candidate Eric Hosmer
2012 was finally supposed to be the year. The Royals were coming off of 71 wins with lots of young talent on the roster poised for improvement and breakout campaigns. Part of that promising future was supposed to be first baseman Eric Hosmer, who produced 1.6 fWAR in 128 games in 2011. You know what happened in 2012? Everything went wrong and the team improved by a measly game. Yes, the prime candidate by most preseason predictions to come out of nowhere and contend improved by a single game. Nobody had it worse than Hosmer, who posted a -1.1 fWAR with the following troubling stat line:
9.4% BB/ 15.9% K/ .127 ISO/ .255 BABIP/ 81 wRC+/ -11.4 UZR/ 1.92 GB/FB/ 11.3% HR/FB
Barf. That is the only term that accurately sums up what happened for Hosmer in 2012. Outside of walks and strikeouts, everything got worse. He got worse against every single pitch except for sinkers (where he improved by a tenth of a point). I once read an article where the author said that everything off of Pujols' bat in the decade of the 2000's turned to gold. Well, in 2012, everything off of Hosmer's bat turned to crap. Because I know he's more talented than his 2012 season suggested, I think Hosmer is going to rebound quite a bit from 2012. While perhaps not the rates he could have put up with normal improvement, I think something like this is reasonable for Hosmer in 2013:
155 games/ 9.0% BB/ 15.2% K/ .165 ISO/ .280 BABIP/ .270 BA/ 120 wRC+/ -10.0 UZR
Hosmer, in my opinion, will be about the equivalent of Anthony Rizzo on offense and just a tad worse than Freddie Freeman on defense (by "a tad" I actually mean "quite a bit"). This really hurts his value and probably puts him in the 2.0-2.5 fWAR window. However, since this is a 3.1 to 3.6 fWAR improvement from 2012, it makes Hosmer a prime rebound candidate. So where does that leave us in fantasy? Honestly it's best to use his 2011 numbers spread out over 162 games to get an idea:
.293 BA/ 83 runs/ 24 HR/ 98 RBI/ 14 SB
See where all the hype from Hosmer came from? The rates from his rookie campaign were off-the-charts good. However, I'm not expecting him to quite bounce back to those rates, so I think his 2013 will look something more like this (150 games):
.270 BA/ 75 runs/ 20 HR/ 85 RBI/ 15 SB
While his offensive numbers are not great anywhere as an individual, he contributes solid rates across the board. He won't be as attractive for fantasy players as Freeman or Rizzo, but he's a solid pick towards the back end of the draft. At the very least, you can start him against right handed pitching, which he does pretty darn well against (even with his massive struggles in 2012). Expect Hosmer to rebound in 2013.
Player Number Four: Rebound/Breakout Hybrid Ike Davis
Of all of the players on this list, Davis is probably the most interesting. He absolutely shined in his rookie campaign in 2010, mashing and fielding his way to 3.5 fWAR in 147 games. Since then, however, Davis has fallen off the radar quite a bit. Early in 2011, he collided with David Wright and wound up needing season-ending ankle surgery. In 2012, Davis caught Valley Fever and started the season miserably, posting a league-worst .159 batting average on May 24th. So it was official in New York: Ike Davis was doomed to be a failure.
Ah, not so fast my friend! Things turned around in a hurry for Davis. He produced a June OPS of .926 and a 2nd-half OPS of .888. In that span, he had 26 homers, 65 RBI, and drew 49 walks. While his offense improved, his glove never quite caught up, as he had a negative UZR (barely) and had an Rdrs of -3. Ultimately, I don't think it's wise to even look at Davis' 2012 totals, as he was a completely different player the last 4 months of the season after a devastating start. I'm expecting the Ike Davis that mashed a 153 wRC+ in his first 36 games in 2011 and the Davis that raked from June 1st to the end of the season last year. Defensively I think Davis has a chance to finally come in 100% recovered from his ankle, his sickness, and any other possible ailments. That is why I think Davis will produce the following line in 2013:
155 games/ 11% BB/ 22% K/ .245 ISO/ .310 BABIP/ .268 BA/ 140 wRC+/ 5.0 UZR
Bold? Absolutely. So bold that this makes Davis a good candidate for 5 fWAR or more. He really does have it all in his game, though. He walks, he hits for tons of power, he can be a high BABIP player, and he definitely has a slick glove. All that needs to happen is for Davis to finally be healthy. No more freak accidents or random illnesses. This bodes extremely well for what I think Davis will produce in fantasy:
.268 BA/ 82 runs/ 33 HR/ 115 RBI/ 2 SB
Needless to say these numbers are pretty darn good, and they make Davis a strong breakout/rebound hybrid. I think he'll finally be healthy and will become the next great MLB first baseman. He's heading into his prime, and he's poised to be a good one.
Player Number Five: Repeat (with slight improvement) Candidate Brandon Belt
Of the players in this post, Belt is the one I'm most undecided on. After all, he had some very odd rates in 2012. He had a ridiculously high .351 BABIP, a walk rate north of 11%, an ISO of only .146 (as a power hitter), a miserable 6.2% HR/FB rate, and a 25.6% LD rate. Needless to say, something here has to give. As expected from these weird numbers, Belt hit 27 doubles, 6 triples, and only 7 home runs last year. This is incredibly intriguing given that Belt isn't that fast (though he's a decently intelligent base runner) and has come through the system as someone expected to hit for plenty of power.
This begs the question of: what will change? What is real and what is fake? Exactly what are we to expect from Brandon Belt? Well, I'm going to try to solve this puzzle as best I can. To start, I believe Belt truly is a power hitter through and through. He had an incredibly high ISO in the minors and hit 31 homers in 180 minor league games (including 23 in 136 games in his one full season in the minors). He posted a .187 ISO in 63 games in his rookie season in 2011 with a reasonable HR/FB rate of 15.8. As far as BABIP is concerned, I believe Belt is going to be a high BABIP guy. He's got decent speed, hits plenty of line drives, and will hit his fair share of home runs. That being said, his GB/FB splits changed a lot last year, so he may not be the same power-hitting, high BABIP player he was in the minors and in 2011. Taking what is the equivalent of a shot in the dark, here's what I think Belt will do in 2013:
155 games/ 11.8% BB/ 23% K/ .179 ISO/ .332 BABIP/ .264 BA/ 124 wRC+/ 0.0 UZR
This all puts Belt between 2.5 fWAR and 3.0 fWAR, which I think is pretty fair. The real challenge in looking at Belt is projecting where he can be in fantasy. I think it's reasonable to say Belt can do this in 2013 in fantasy:
.264 BA/ 65 runs/ 18 HR/ 75 RBI/ 15 SB
All of this considered, Belt isn't really even a fantasy target in 2013. While he can do all the stuff I predicted, it's fairly optimistic and assumes he can adjust his BIP rates. Some may argue that he could be a good platoon target late in the draft, but he's a rather unique left-handed hitter. There was only an 18 point difference in OPS for left and right-handed hitters. The difference in batting average was quite large (48 points in favor of RHP), and so was the power (47 points of SLG in favor of LHP).
With all of these incredibly odd things considered, I think Belt will repeat in 2013 with some adjusted rates that lead to a slight improvement.
Player Number Six: Breakout Candidate Paul Goldschmidt
At last, we arrive at my favorite of the first basemen in this post. Goldschmidt developed nicely and produced a strong 2012. Behind his 10.2% BB rate and his .204 ISO he clubbed, fielded, and ran his way to 3.7 fWAR in 145 games. While his .340 BABIP may not be sustainable, it's also wasn't unrealistically high. Goldschmidt was a high BABIP player in the minors and has a .337 BABIP through 193 MLB games. He hits plenty of line drives and has great power. Here's a look at his 2012 full-season line:
145 games/ 10.2% BB/ 22.1% K/ .204 ISO/ .340 BABIP/ .286 BA/ 123 wRC+/ 3.5 UZR/ 3.7 fWAR
That line is quite impressive, and it actually came with 18 stolen bases in 21 attempts (nearly 86% success rate). He's strong, intelligent on the bases, and smooth in the field. These all combine to make him a great option at first base. I don't think any of his rates were too far off, but here's what I think he's capable of as he goes into his age 25 season:
155 games/ 10.8% BB/ 21.5% K/ .235 ISO/ .335 BABIP/ .292 BA/ 134 wRC+/ 2.0 UZR
Due to his unusually good base running skills (compared to other first basemen), I think this puts him in Ike Davis territory at around 5.0 fWAR. I'm really big on Goldschmidt, and I think there's plenty of reason to be high on him. As you can guess, this translates really well into fantasy. Here's what Goldschmidt piled up in 2012:
.286 BA/ 82 runs/ 20 HR/ 82 RBI/ 18 SB
This made him quite the valuable player, and I think he's due to get even better. I think we'll start to see an improvement in his power numbers, and he should get a couple more steals given more playing time. While Justin Upton is gone, he wasn't a huge factor in Goldschmidt's fantasy numbers last year. What to expect out of Goldschmidt in 2013? How about the following?
.292 BA/ 85 runs/ 25 HR/ 90 RBI/ 21 SB
While the fantasy numbers aren't really a "breakout" from the previous season, they are still much better overall compared to last year. Getting better in every category is something reasonable I think will happen for Goldschmidt, and this improvement across the board will help lead to the 1.3 fWAR improvement and help him become a 5.0 fWAR player.
Conclusion
When thinking about the first base position, the first thing that comes to mind is "transition." Pujols is aging, Cabrera is no longer at the position, Adrian Gonzalez is on the wrong side of 30 now (along with Mark Teixeira), and even Joey Votto and Prince Fielder will be 29 years old at the start of the 2013 season. The six players listed above will have an average of just over 24 years old at the start of the 2013 season, and together they form the future of the first base position. All are definitely talented players that will add depth behind the front line of Pujols, Votto, Fielder, and Gonzalez that currently sits atop the position. My latest breakout candidate for 2013? The first base position.
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