Howie Kendrick (Breakout, but more "Repeat"):
.291 BA/83 runs/14 HR/92 RBI/14 SB
Actual (Repeat):
.287 BA/57 runs/8 HR/67 RBI/14 SB (wound up spending a lot of time 1-2 spots lower in the order than I anticipated)
Johnny Cueto (Bust):
6.30 K/ 2.71 BB/ 0.99 HR/ .282 BABIP/ 43% GB/ 9.4 HRFB
3.99 xFIP/ 3.85 tERA/ 4.02 SIERA/ 2.2 fWAR
Actual (Breakout):
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6893&position=P#battedball
David Freese (Breakout):
640 PA/ .310 BA/ .374 OBP/ .471 SLG/ .845 OPS (131 OPS+)/ 4.3 fWAR
Actual (Breakout):
567 PA/ .293 BA/ .372 OBP/.467 SLG/ .839 OPS (129 OPS+)/ 4.1 fWAR
Joe Mauer (Rebound):
140 G/ 590 PA/ .325 BA/ .370 OBP/ .450 SLG (128 OPS+)/ 6.1 WAR (5.6 oWAR/ 0.5 dWAR)- 78% G at C
Actual (Rebound):
147 G/ 641 PA/ .319 BA/ .416 OBP/ .446 SLG (141 OPS+)/ 4.1 WAR (4.9 oWAR/-0.9 dWAR)- 50.3% G at C
Ryan Vogelsong (Bust):
140 IP/ 3.58 ERA (106 ERA+)/ 6.40 K/9/ 3.58 BB/9/ 1.3 fWAR
Actual (Repeat):
189 IP/ 3.37 ERA (103 ERA+)/ 7.5 K/9/ 2.9 BB/9/ 2.6 fWAR
Andrew McCutchen (Breakout):
.275 BA/ 95 Runs/ 27 HR/ 95 RBI/ 25 SB
Actual (Breakout):
.327 BA/ 107 Runs/31 HR/96 RBI/ 20 SB
Adam Dunn (Rebound)- Rebound (didn't actually provide numbers as this was the 1st of the BBR articles)
Hanley Ramirez (Rebound):
.280 BA/ 87 Runs/ 20 HR/ 85 RBI/ 25 SB
Actual (Rebound):
.257 BA/ 79 Runs/ 24 HR/ 92 RBI/ 21 SB
Matt Kemp (Repeat):
.310 BA/ .382 OBP/ .553 SLG/ .935 OPS (160 OPS+)/ 7.5 WAR
Actual (Repeat- minus injury):
.303 BA/ .367 OBP/ .538 SLG/ .906 OPS (147 OPS+)/ 3.5 fWAR
Madison Bumgarger (Breakout):
220 IP/ 8.65 K/9/ 1.91 BB/9/ 2.95 xFIP/ 47.0% GB/ 35.0% FB/ 6.4 fWAR
Actual (Repeat):
208 IP/ 8.25 K/9/ 2.12 BB/9/ 3.45 xFIP/47.9% GB/ 33.3% FB/ 3.4 fWAR
So really, I did very well with position players and completely flopped on the pitchers. This doesn't surprise me, especially given fangraphs' recent research into FDP wins and the revelation that LOB% is a significant part of pitching that needs to be taken into account. I'm not making any excuses however, since that's something that anyone could have considered when making predictions and I admit to missing it. That said, I'm pretty proud of my results and would like to do it again for 2013. Let's get to our first 2013 issue: breakout candidate Salvador Perez.
BBR^2 Part One: Salvador Perez, C, Kansas City Royals
At some point last year, you probably heard or read about my love of Salvador Perez and how much of a young star I think he is going to be. A lot of people will probably disagree with me, but I think he's got the strongest throwing arm in the Major Leagues at any position. The evidence? Last year he set the Royals' pickoff record with 8 career pickoffs in only 113 career games at catcher. That's 11.5 pickoffs per 162 games! (for context, Yadier Molina had 5 in 136 games at catcher last year, a rate of 6 per 162) What else? Last year he led the American League by catching 42% of base runners trying to steal. That's close to Yadier's career rate of 45%. In short, Perez has the running game on lock down by himself. As a result of this, the returns on his defensive rates are pretty remarkable (1.8 dWAR, 10 defensive runs saved, and a 5.4 UZR in 113 games). However, it's not just his throwing arm that makes Perez a breakout candidate. To understand why he's the lead off player for this year, we need to look at what he's done in the majors offensively:
115 G/ .311 BA/ .339 OBP/ .471 SLG/ 119 wRC+/ 4.1% BB/ 10.2% K/ .160 ISO
Mix in his remarkable defensive numbers and Perez has already produced 4.1 fWAR in his career. That's 5.78 fWAR per 162 games. So really, the first question that comes to mind is, "With numbers this good, how could he possibly break out?" Well for one, he plays in Kansas City and is a relative unknown around the league. Second, his 115 games are spread out over two seasons, so we haven't yet seen what he can do over a full season of wear and tear. That being said, I think it's reasonable to assume that Perez can hit for a high average, hit for a ton of power, and provide that excellent defense behind the plate. The next question then becomes a matter of sustainability. To start to look into that, we'll consider Perez' BIP rates:
1.40 GB/FB ratio/ 25.8% LD (not a typo)/ 43.3% GB/ 30.9% FB/ 11.5% HR/FB
Basically, Salvador hits a ton of line drives and absolutely smashes the ball. This is no doubt due to his great strength and the ferocity with which he can swing the bat. However, Perez does have the reputation of being a bit of a hacker at the plate. But really, it's not like Perez has awful discipline at the plate. He has positive win values against fastballs, sliders, and changeups in his short time in the majors. This suggests that he typically can recognize what is coming, but he doesn't have the patience to wait for that one perfect pitch to hit. This is the biggest reason I believe he ends up hitting so many ground balls. He makes contact with 86.2% of pitches outside the zone that he swings at, but since those pitches are out of the zone, my guess is that a lot of the resulting contact is weak and rolled over. Knowing this, I think Perez' offensive approach is pretty sensible. He recognizes pitches, has great power, and hits a bunch of line drives. I think this will lead to a bunch of future seasons with 20-25 HR and a whole bunch of doubles, keeping his ISO high and his BB% low. All of this now considered, this is what I expect from Perez over a season of about 145 games in 2013:
145 G/ .305 BA/ .334 OBP/ .495 SLG/ .190 ISO/ 4.2% BB/ 10.5% K/ 8.5 UZR/ -3.0 BSR/ 5.0 fWAR
Fantasy Value
Ah, we finally come to the part that people actually care about. As a precursor to this part of the write-up, I'll say that I drafted Salvador Perez with the second-to-last pick in the 14th round of the competitive league I'm in on the message board I frequent. Since he's not yet established, my guess is that Perez will be taken late in most leagues that don't feature a keeper aspect. I think that Perez is easily the #1 option for bench catcher, and I think he's a good option in BA and OPS leagues for the UTIL spot since he gives you flexibility at catcher. I might go far as to say that one of the better fantasy strategies this year is to ignore catcher in the early rounds, build the other parts of your offense, and then snag up Perez as your 8th or 9th offensive option. Why am I saying all of this? Well, let's look at what Perez did in fantasy last year in his limited time:
.301 BA/ 38 runs/ 11 HR/ 39 RBI/ 0 SB/ .798 OPS
Projected out over a full season, that's roughly:
.301 BA/ 72 runs/ 21 HR/ 83 RBI/ 0 SB/ .798 OPS
Those numbers are really good from a late round draft pick, especially at the catcher position. Given that I expect guys like Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, and other Royals offensive players to bounce back, I think those run numbers and RBI totals could be even higher, though I think it's safe to assume that Perez will be right around those numbers in 2013. Now it's time to get to my fantasy predictions for him for 2013:
.305 BA/ 75 runs/ 23 HR/ 87 RBI/ 0 SB/ .829 OPS
Optimistic? Yes. Unrealistic? Absolutely not. Perez has the potential to be one of (if not the) best catchers in the league in the future. Without looking into it incredibly deeply, I think Perez might be the steal of the draft for whoever takes him. I would give him a pretty early look in keeper leagues, and I'd start considering him as early as round 10 in standard leagues depending on who you are playing with. If you're looking for strategy, here's what I did in my early, slow-progressing fantasy draft: I took Joe Mauer in round 3, knowing he had C/1B status and thus will play more than most catchers. This is an overdraft by most measures, but I did this planning to target Perez in the later rounds. Now I'll have a C/1B/UTIL rotation of Joe Mauer, Ike Davis, and Salvador Perez. I figure I can get plenty of HR and RBI from Davis and Perez, a strong .800+ OPS from all three players, and a solid number of runs with each player. Another way to go about it, as mentioned earlier, would be to ignore the catcher spot in the first 9 founds while stocking up on all other offensive positions and possibly grabbing either a couple starters or perhaps a reliever. This strategy, however, does depend on your ability to get Perez, because catcher will be extremely weak at this point in the draft.
So there, we have the first edition of BBR^2. I officially stamp Salvador Perez as a breakout candidate for the 2013 season.
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