Houston Astros
2012 Record: 55-107
Pythagorean Record: 59-103
Games out of First: 42.0
Top Performers by WAR (rWAR for batters and fWAR for pitchers just to very things up):
1. Lucas Harrell, 2.8
2. Justin Maxwell, 2.3
3. Jed Lowrie, 2.1
4. Wandy Rodriguez, 1.8
5. Bud Norris, 1.5
2012 Recap
Patience, Astros fans! This franchise is rebuilding in the truest sense of the word. From the top down, they are completely changing themselves, and the performance of the 2012 team was a reflection of that. To sum up what the Astros went through last years, the best thing to do is to consider the fact that only five players appeared in 100 or more games for the team during the season. Whether you are a fan of WAR as a stat/concept or not, the team leader totals speak for themselves. They had zero all-star caliber 2012 performers, as their best OPS+ from someone who played enough to qualify for anything was 102 (Jose Altuve) and the best ERA+ the team had from someone with more than 140 IP was 106. The team had a 4.57 ERA, with part of the poor effort coming from the pitchers and the other part coming from the below-average defense. The team, by fangraphs run totals, was -4 wins in the field and -1 win on the bases, so they effectively lost 5 games because of their inability to field the baseball and run around the bases. The team also was 2nd to last with a wRC+ of 83, 3rd to last in fielding by UZR, 3rd to last on the bases by BsR, bottom 6 in ERA, and bottom 10 in xFIP. They were bad in literally every way, and there's just no way around it. Even their bullpen was terrible: bottom 5 in ERA and bottom 10 in xFIP. The pseudo silver lining here is that all of their in season and off season trades have left them as a ridiculously young roster, so there's hope that things will get better shortly.
Off Season Recap
I'd be lying if I said the Astros off season didn't begin last spring. The sale of the franchise has the club in full-out rebuild mode, and there is no way around it. They are revamping as a franchise with a move to the American League West and a makeover of their uniforms (click the link on the blog for pictures). However, rebuilding a franchise isn't all about aesthetics. The team has been working hard since last off season to rework the team, and the bulk of the results were seen this past June. The Astros were aggressive in the Rule Four draft, nabbing top overall talent Carlos Correa and using their compensation round pick on talented pitcher Lance McCullers. The moves continued on the MLB front, where they traded Chris Johnson, Carlos Lee, Wandy Rodriguez, and Brett Myers during the season for a collection of small pieces. This movement continued in the off season as they flipped Jed Lowire to the A's for Chris Carter and Brad Peacock, as well as parting with closer Wilton Lopez. The team certainly looked to dump salary, but that didn't stop them from adding players. They brought in Carlos Pena, Jose Veras, Erik Bedard, and Rick Ankiel on select low-cost or non-guaranteed contracts. If nothing else, these moves help fill out a roster that now needs to utilize the DH while in the American League.
Additions:
Carlos Pena, 1B/DH
Chris Carter, 1B/DH
Brad Peacock, SP
Jose Veras, CP
Subtractions (dating back to mid-season):
Jed Lowrie, SS/3B
Chris Johnson, 3B
Wandy Rodriguez, SP
Brett Myers, RP
Carlos Lee, 1B
2013 Outlook
Looks like a third consecutive year of futility, but that's what happens when you field a payroll that costs less than B.J. Upton and barely more than Edwin Jackson. If nothing else, the 2013 Astros will have a favorable dollar/WAR ratio! Really, it's just hard to be optimistic about the club. They do have some young players that definitely will be contributing in 5 years or so, but they just don't have any significant talent on the roster. They may look to trade Bud Norris and Jose Veras in season depending on how they are performing, but the 2013 Astros should be relatively quiet on the trade front as they are about out of tradeable MLB talent. That being said, the newest member of the AL West has a few things to look out for:
1. #1 Overall Pick in June- Again, this is the number one thing for the Astros. Acquiring the right kind of player with the #1 pick is going to be a top priority (as is doing so with all of their 2013 draft picks). I haven't gone too deep into the 2013 draft pool, but there's definitely some high level talent available. Austin Meadows, Ryne Stanek, and Mark Appel have all been mocked in early mocks at the top of the draft. Perhaps the Astros are the team that deals with Boras and goes after Appel to get a college arm that is close to the majors, but that might not fit in with what the Astros are trying to do. After all, it's still really early, and the Astros have some great staffers that will take care of it all.
2. Chris Carter- Talk about your interesting acquisitions. If you haven't seen Carter, the guy is a beast of a man, standing 6'4 and 240 pounds. His best skill is hitting the life out of the baseball. There is some legitimate concern that Carter won't be able to hit right-handed pitching long term (.311 OBP against RHP in 2012 in limited time), but his power is impressive. He had a .275 ISO in 2012, and draws tons of walks. While his strikeouts are a long-term red flag and his lack of defense will force him to DH, he's an interesting low-cost asset.
3. Lining Up Money for 2014 Free Agent Class- If you haven't seen the current 2014 MLB free agent class, it's pretty deep. While the Astros are definitely rebuilding, that doesn't stop them from adding talent through free agency. There are going to be free agents all over the place that can contribute significant value on short-term deals and be used as valuable trade pieces. If they can avoid overpaying (hard to do in free agency), they should be able to effectively attack the free agent class and continue their rebuilding effort.
Potential Breakout Player
Jason Castro, C
While his effort came in very limited playing time in 2012, I liked what I saw out of Jason Castro. He has good patience at the plate and handles the bat well. While his defense needs some work, Castro's offensive potential could be enough to carry him to a possible 3+ WAR season in 2013. In 2012, Castro squared up a ton of balls, producing a LD% of 27.5. Unfortunately, this ability to square up balls didn't produce enough fly balls for Castro to develop a strong ISO and solid power resume. If he can turn some of these line drives into low-line fly balls, then he should be able to poke a few more home runs into the Crawford Boxes and develop into a solid player. If you remember, he was a key for the Astros going into the 2012 season (well for me at least) and I think he could be poised for a strong year in 2013.
Potential Bust Player
I can't do this to the Astros, not when they didn't even have anyone reach 4 wins in value. "Bust" wouldn't be the proper term, so this section gets a breather with this prediction.
2013 Starting Nine and Starting Rotation
Astros fans who know about their spring competitions, please chime in as this is the hardest team to project:
C- Jason Castro
1B- Carlos Pena
2B- Jose Altuve
SS- Tyler Greene
3B- Matt Dominguez
LF- J.D. Martinez
CF- ??? (Astros fans help)
RF- ??? (Astros fans help)
DH- Chris Carter
SP- Lucas Harrell
SP- Bud Norris
SP- Jordan Lyles
SP- J.A. Happ
SP- Dallas Keuchel
Expected Finishes:
Record: 53-109
Finish: 5th Place (AL West)
Most Valuable Player: Jason Castro, 2.6 WAR
Lasting Thought
It's all about becoming something new. The Astros have tried rebuilding before, and they've wound up with mediocre/bad teams as a result of it. They are taking a new look into a new league, and have done things properly to this point. Expect them to continue the rebuilding effort with a slight upward swing in 2013. This Astros team is better than the last two, IMO, but their competition is much tougher. Have patience Astros fans, "The night is darkest just before the dawn, and I think the dawn is coming."
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