2012 Record: 81-81
Pythag Record: B-Ref is down, I'll edit this in later instead of taking the 10 seconds to calculate it
Games Out of First: 7.0
Top Performers by WAR (again, b-ref is down, so this will be all fWAR):
1. Aaron Hill, 6.2
2. Miguel Montero, 5.0
3. Wade Miley, 4.8
4. Paul Goldschmidt, 3.7
5. Trevor Cahill, 3.4
I don't remember where I read it, but I'm certain I read somewhere that the Diamondbacks were one of the most disappointing teams of all time in terms of wins compared to expected wins.
2012 Recap
This team was 8th in position player fWAR and tied for 5th in pitcher fWAR and still only won 81 games in a pretty modest division. Heck, the team was even 5th in team UZR! So what were the Diamondbacks not good at? From what I can see in terms of fangraphs ratios, just running the bases. They were bottom 10 in BsR and 23rd in the league in stolen bases. Other than that, it's really hard to find out where this team went wrong. They were 11th in ISO (may be somewhat low for a Chase Field team), had a really high team BABIP, and were middle of the road in terms of wRC+. This is where it's nice to note that a lot of these metrics are estimates based on correlations and years upon years of data. They are an estimation of what "should" have happened for the club. Now, individually there may be an explanation as to why estimated results didn't translate into wins: lineup use. Justin Upton's .150 ISO was hitting in the 3rd spot in the order all season. His skills didn't play well for a 3-hitter last year (my apologies if he hit 4th for a while, b-ref is down), and it's a key mistake for a manager to not perform more adjustments when his hitters aren't hitting well for extended periods of time. The estimations assume that the right players are being put in the right spots, and I think that may have been one of the key pieces of undoing for the D-Backs. Aaron Hill even put up a .220 ISO, but I don't think he was hitting 4th or 5th for any extended period of time.
Off Season Recap
So after reading through this, the conclusion to how the D-Backs roster should be approached is just better optimization, correct? Not if your name is Kevin Towers. If your name is Kevin Towers you see a roster that doesn't have enough hustle and grit and you nuke it like Hiroshima. Justin Upton? Gone. Chris Young? Gone. Trevor Bauer? Gone. Joe Saunders? Gone. Jason Kubel? Well, he tried moving him. He took a good roster and pulled a Dahmer on it. However, it's not that he butchered the roster...he didn't get fair value back in return! He flipped Chris Young to Oakland for scrap pieces, he basically flipped Trevor Bauer for DiDi Gregorious, and then he turned Justin Upton into Martin Prado and Randall Delgado. Anyway, Towers did do a few things correctly. He extended Prado and Hill on the cheap side and brought in Cody Ross for the outfield. Here's a summary:
Additions:
OF Cody Ross
SS Cliff Pennington
SS DiDi Gregorious
3B Martin Prado
RP Heath Bell (..........)
SP Brandon McCarthy
RP Tony Sipp
CF Tony Campana
Subtractions (dating back to mid-season):
RF Justin Upton
CF Chris Young
SP Trevor Bauer
SP Joe Saunders
2013 Outlook
Magic 8 ball says "outlook is bleak" (which is weird, because they usually don't say that). I really think the Diamondbacks had a good thing going and totally ruined it. Do I know all about the players they moved around? No, I don't have the opportunity to talk to them and get to know them. However, I have a hard time thinking moving Justin Upton's talent is worth any gain in leadership. Looking at the lineup, I see the potential for quite a few runs. Their 2-7 spots in the lineup all have competent bats (the jury is still out on Adam Eaton and Cliff Pennington kinda stinks at offense). As far as their rotation goes, I'm sure they can mostly repeat and be average even without a front-line pitcher at the top. The main problems the D-Backs are going to have are: 1) They got worse on defense 2) They don't really have any front-line talent 3) They don't have a ton of depth 4) The division went and got itself a LOT better (particularly Los Angeles).
Potential Breakout Player
Tyler Skaggs, SP
At some point, prospects must either step up and produce or risk falling into a AAAA mold. With Skaggs, it looks like he is going to have a real shot at stepping into the rotation this year. In his short time up last year, Skaggs had some serious issues with home runs, but I think he will eventually put that behind him. He controls his pitches well and should have great success if he keeps them down in the zone. He's definitely a possible ROY candidate in the NL.
Potential Bust Player
Aaron Hill, 2B
Hill was 28th in the league in ISO last year at .220. I do not believe in his ability to repeat said performance. He didn't change much from 2011 to 2012 in his BIP splits but saw his ISO double. Hill also isn't a spring chicken, so to see him randomly pull a 6.2 fWAR out of his butt this late in his career was rather shocking. He's been far too mediocre the rest of his career for me to believe he can repeat last year. Going with track record over recent performance here.
Starting Eight and Starting Rotation
C- Miguel Montero
1B- Paul Goldschmidt
2B- Aaron Hill
SS- Cliff Pennington
3B- Martin Prado
LF- Jason Kubel
CF- Adam Eaton
RF- Cody Ross
SP- Ian Kennedy
SP- Wade Miley
SP- Trevor Cahill
SP- Brandon McCarthy
SP- Tyler Skaggs/Randall Delgado
Expectations:
Record: 74-88
Team MVP: Miguel Montero, 5.5 WAR
Lasting Thought
The Diamondbacks still have the young pieces to compete in the near future. They just need to orchestrate things properly and carefully. I don't mind teams valuing hard work ethic and "grit" but it does bother me when players are traded simply on the merits of not being the kind of leader you want them to be. This team still has .500 potential, but I don't expect them to have the depth and front-line talent to get them there.
2012 Record: 81-81
Pythag Record: Unavailable
Games Out of First: 17.0
Top Performers by WAR
1. Carlos Ruiz, 5.5
2. Jimmy Rollins, 4.9
3. Cole Hamels, 4.9
4. Cliff Lee, 4.5
5. Chase Utley, 3.2
2012 Recap
Father time is one evil son of a bitch.
Quite frankly, age finally caught up with the Phillies in 2012. They had loads of trouble staying healthy (Halladay, Ruiz, Howard, Utley, etc) and it really impacted their performance. Even with the key breakout of Carlos Ruiz, the team really struggled to compete with the juggernauts in Atlanta and Washington. The team was bottom 10 in wRC+ and dipped down to 18th in team UZR. Where the team didn't fall short though was in team xFIP. Despite Roy Halladay's injury-driven decline, the club finished 2nd in team xFIP at 3.61. Without the pitching, the 2012 Phillies would have been fighting for the cellar in the NL East. Overall, the season recap comes down to the team finally getting old.
Off Season Recap
After trading Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence in the middle of the season, the club had plenty of room to make moves but not a lot of money to do it with. In case you haven't heard, Ryan Howard's extension pay increase still hasn't kicked in yet, which really has left the team in a financial bind after extending Cole Hamels. The club went out and added some pieces this off season, but how much those pieces will help is in question. The team traded Travor May and Vance Worley to the Twins for Ben Revere, flipped some minor pieces to Texas for Michael Young, and then went out and signed Delmon Young. I'll let you think on that one while I sum things up:
Additions:
CF Ben Revere
3B Michael Young
SP John Lannan
LF Delmon Young
Subtractions (dating back to mid-season):
SP Trevor May
SP Vance Worley
SP Joe Blanton
CF Shane Victorino
RF Hunter Pence
2013 Outlook
Rather than a paragraph, here is a list of things the Phillies will be looking to have go right if they want any shot at competing (and yes, all of these things must happen):
1. Roy Halladay returns to form
2. Somehow, someway, Dominic Brown forces Delmon Young out of his starting spot
3. Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee continue to be really good
4. Michael Young doesn't start more than 100 games.
5. Chase Utley plays like 2008/2009 Chase Utley
6. Ryan Howard fights and claws his way to 2.0 WAR
7. Carlos Ruiz doesn't skip a beat coming off of his drug suspension
If all of these things happen, the team has an outside shot at 87 wins, which puts them in the 2nd Wild Card race.
Potential Breakout Player
Dominic Brown, OF
Give him playing time! Seriously, if this guy doesn't have enough support from the organization to start over Delmon freaking Young, then they should just trade him. He might not be the top player many thought he once could be, but it's not his fault he has now gotten blocked by Hunter Pence, John Mayberry, and Delmon Young. If this guys gets adequate playing time, he can be a useful asset. This is really a pie in the sky "Potential Breakout Player" though.
Potential Bust Player
Carlos "Chooch" Ruiz, C
I don't really know that there's much of a track record for players coming back off of PED suspensions, but I imagine that it isn't that great. Ruiz is going to miss the first 25 games of 2013. Really, last year was a kind of once-in-a-lifetime for him..215 ISO and .340 BABIP? Sorry, not buying into it from a catcher not known for his power.
Starting Eight and Starting Rotation
C- Carlos Ruiz (when he comes back)
1B- Ryan Howard
2B- Chase Utley
SS- Jimmy Rollins
3B- Michael Young
LF- Delmon Young
CF- Ben Revere
RF- Darin Ruf/Dominic Brown
SP - Roy Halladay
SP - Cliff Lee
SP - Cole Hamels
SP - Kyle Kendrick
SP - John Lannan
Ryan Howard, Michael Young, and Delmon Young...all negative value players...will be regular starters in an offense that already was having trouble producing and preventing runs.
Expectations
Record: 72-90
Team MVP: Cole Hamels, 6.1 WAR
Lasting Thought
Every great thing in life much eventually come to an end, and Phillies fans are going to go through that this year. I see the potential for a playoff team here, but the Braves and Nationals are so incredibly good that I just don't see the above roster winning many games. Plus, let's not forget that the Mets also improved and schedules are more balanced. This team is still attached to a LOT of money going forward, and they hurt their future chances quite a bit with the Ben Revere trade. Still, it's hard not to be optimistic about your team when your top 3 is still Halladay, Lee, and Hamels.
No comments:
Post a Comment