Milwaukee Brewers
2012 Record: 83-79
Pythag Record: 85-77
Games Out of First: 14.0
Top Performers by WAR:
1. Ryan Braun, 6.8
2. Aramis Ramirez, 5.4
3. Zack Greinke, 3.8
4. Jonathan Lucroy, 3.4
5. Norichika Aoki, 3.3
2012 Recap
There were two things the Brewers could have done last year to make the playoffs: 1) They should have dumped Randy Wolf earlier in the season and gone with a platoon of the young starters they have 2) They could have held on to Zack Greinke. For reasons beyond the 2012 roster (like the complete lack of a farm system and lack of funds to pay the man the contract the Dodgers just gave him) , they really had no choice but to trade Greinke so it's hard to blame them for that one. However, the Wolf fiasco really hurts. Wolf pitching at such a bad ERA for so many innings led to a -1.2 by RA/9 WAR (which is really bad). A lot of people were shocked that the team fought its way back into the playoff race, but when you throw 4 regular starters who contribute almost the exact same 3.7 ERA and are 6th in team wRC+ you're going to win games. However, there was one glaring weakness the 2012 Brewers had: the complete and utter inability to close out ballgames. The team bullpen era was 4.66 and they walked more than 4 batters per 9 innings as a pen. Unfortunately for the Brewers, the bullpen really didn't pitch *this* poorly. They should have been a pretty acceptable bullpen, but because of the volatility of end results over small sample sizes the results wound up being terrible.
Off Season Recap
It was a pretty quiet off season in Milwaukee, but that's because they really set things up to go that way. Offensively they have no glaring needs or weaknesses and they've been able to build up a collection of mediocre pitchers to serve as a solid starting rotation. What the Brewers did try to address is the bullpen. Now, as you may have noticed I haven't talked about bullpens much to this point. The reason behind that is that every team is constantly reworking its bullpen, (even a team like the Rays is constantly switching guys in and out) and the results are so volatile that I don't even bother predicting them. Anyway, for what it's worth, here's a summary:
Additions:
RP Mike Gonzalez
RP Burke Badenhop
RP Tom Gorzellany
Subtractions (dating back to mid-season):
SP Zack Greinke
SP Shaun Marcum
RP Francisco Rodriguez
UTIL Mat Gamel (counting him as a "subtraction" because he's out for the year with a torn ACL)
2013 Outlook
In 2012, Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum combined for 247 IP and an ERA of 3.57. That is going to be really, really hard to replace. Marco Estrada, Michael Fiers, and Wily Peralta are going to have to step up and make up for that production. This means that Estrada and Fiers can't really afford to regress and Peralta needs to step up in a big way. Offensively, the team should be just fine even though Corey Hart is going to miss part of the beginning of the season. His absence means that Hunter Morris should finally get a look in the Major Leagues. The team as a whole is doing what most small market teams do: relying on young players within the organization to step up and produce in the absence of the players that have left. Here are the keys to their season:
1. Aramis Ramirez- A-Ram needs to continue to hold off father time. His production was absolutely vital to this team last year. Whether you believe in protection in the lineup or not, his slugging percentage helped drive in Ryan Braun a lot last year. With Hart being out and the production of Lucroy and Gomez being up in the air, Aramis needs to continue to be a solid presence in the four spot in the lineup.
2. Marco Estrada- If his peripherals from last year hold up and he continues the very high K/BB rate (supported by a K/9 over 9) then he can be a solid #2 in this rotation. Most players don't break out at 28, but Estrada did. If he can provide 200 innings of really solid work, the Brewers will be right there at the end.
3. John Axford- It's possible for closers to be really effective with a complete lack of control. I've seen Carlos Marmol do it his whole career. However, that kind of being "effectively wild" is not what John Axford was last year. Unlike Marmol, who usually is really good at avoiding being totally killed by his walks through limiting home runs allowed, Axford got torched by the long ball last year. A BB/9 rate above 5 paired with a HR/9 rate of 1.3 is not going to lead to good things. He needs to lock down games and help the team avoid losing games it shouldn't. Bullpens are the ultimate savior/destroyer of Pythag records, and Axford's performance is one of several that led the team to under-performing.
Potential Breakout Player
Marco Estrada, SP
His stuff really isn't that great, but this guy is really helped by the Brewer coaching staff. The games called when he is on the mound are fantastic, and his results show it. He's able to hide the ball well and that leads to deception. 140 IP isn't the greatest sample, but the peripherals he put up last year were fantastic. Ultimately he may start to get burned by home runs if he doesn't start getting more ground balls, but if he keeps up his rates from last year, he can be looked at as a quality #2.
Potential Bust Player
Carlos Gomez, CF
Strikes out too much, doesn't ever walk, and his power numbers last year were pretty much the direct result of dumb luck. Until he learns to hit the ball on the ground more and use his speed, he's just not going to be a great player. I think we are going to get back to the days of .270 OBP and .400 SLG from GoGo.
Projected Starting Eight and Starting Rotation
C- Jonathan Lucroy
1B- Corey Hart
2B- Rickie Weeks (something I didn't get to is how important him bouncing back is)
SS- Jean Segura
3B- Aramis Ramirez
LF- Ryan Braun
CF- Carlos Gomez
RF- Norichika Aoki
SP- Yovani Gallardo
SP- Marco Estrada
SP- Michael Fiers
SP- Chris Narveson
SP- Wily Peralta
Expectations:
Record: 84-78
Team MVP: Ryan Braun: 7.4 WAR
Lasting Thought
The Brewers are at a spot where they are a few players away from getting back into the postseason. They really need to get back to developing young talent like they used to. Right now, their farm system is very weak and they need to infuse some more young talent into the team. The MLB roster is good right now, but probably needs a couple strong overperformances in order to really give Cincy a run for their money at the top of the division.
Chicago White Sox
2012 Record: 85-77
Pythag Record: 88-74
Games Out of First: 3.0
Top Performers by WAR
1. Chris Sale, 4.9
2. Jake Peavy, 4.4
3. Alex Rios, 4.2
4. A.J. Pierzynski, 2.6
5. Alexei Ramirez, 2.2
2012 Recap
Of every team in the league last year, the White Sox may have been the most underrated. They were top 10 in wRC+, 17th in UZR, and 13th in team xFIP. The team even had a strong bullpen that finished 16th in ERA (good considering the Cell does not exactly love pitching). The only place they really failed as a team was on the bases, where they were bottom 10 in team BsR despite being 13th in total stolen bases. Ultimately what may have hurt them as a team was having exactly zero offensive depth and having two black holes on offense up the middle of the diamond (Gordon Beckham and Alexei Ramirez were terrible at the plate). Their offense was pretty well balanced last year despite not having a lot of top-tier talent. Looking deeper into the season, it appears that Paul Konerko's wrist injury really demoralized the team offensively. Konerko had a 1st half wRC+ of 151 and a 2nd half wRC+ of 108. The same can be said for Adam Dunn, who had a first half wRC+ of 130 and a 2nd half wRC+ of 94. The removal of this production from the lineup is what led to the White Sox tapering off and the Tigers taking the division.
Off Season Recap
Few teams changed as little from last season to this season as the White Sox. The team added Jeff Keppinger to take over third base. Outside of this, the only major change was the team letting A.J. Pierzynski walk in free agency. Otherwise, the team is going to return the same starters on offense and in the rotation. Here's a summary of their off season:
Additions:
3B Jeff Keppinger
Subtractions:
C A.J. Pierzynski
3B Kevin Youkilis
2013 Outlook
I think being stagnant this off season was a mistake for the White Sox. Adding Keppinger is a plus, but letting A.J. go is going to prove to be a huge loss, in my opinion. Tyler Flowers has really struggled offensively in his appearances in the majors, and if he doesn't step up then the offensive depth will be seriously lacking. 2012 was a tale of two halves for several White Sox players, and things need to change for 2013. Here are the keys for the White Sox:
1) Paul Konerko- If he's healthy, he's got one of the best bats in baseball. Simply putL he needs to stay healthy, or this offense is amazingly pedestrian.
2) Adam Dunn- See above. It was fantastic to see him recover from the nightmare that was 2011, but he needs to keep up his success over a full season. Ultimately age is a huge deal with these two, so the White Sox need to extract as much value as possible out of them in 2013.
3) Addison Reed- Dude, you can't have a 5+ ERA as a closer in the 2nd half of the season for a team trying to make the post season! Really, Reed's splits were terrible in the 2nd half. He started to sacrifice strikeouts for control and gave up almost 2.0 HR/9 in the 2nd half last season. Keep the ball in the ballpark and finish games so your team can win.
Potential Breakout Player
Tyler Flowers, C
Nothing will help anyone on this team more than Flowers finally getting a chance to play as the primary catcher. Defensively he is strong behind the plate and has been above average at shutting down running games. Offensively I feel as if he just needs to see more MLB pitches. I don't think he's going to be as strikeout-prone as he has been in the past.
Potential Bust Player
Alex Rios, OF
This one seems pretty obvious. Rios' career is a complete roller coaster and last year was one of the peaks. His walk rate keeps going down and his power miraculously went up last season thanks to a career high HR/FB ratio. There really isn't another great bust candidate (outside of Chris Sale, who is hard to label as a bust) on this team, so it's Rios by default.
Starting Nine and Starting Rotation
C- Tyler Flowers
1B- Paul Konerko
2B- Gordon Beckham
SS- Alexei Ramirez
3B- Jeff Keppinger
LF- Dayan Viciedo
CF- Alejandro De Aza
RF- Alex Rios
SP- Chris Sale
SP- Jake Peavy
SP- John Danks (don't sleep on this dude, he should bounce back)
SP- Gavin Floyd
SP- Jose Quintana
Expectations
Record: 80-82
Team MVP: Chris Sale, 5.6 WAR
Lasting Thought
Staying put in this off season was a bad move. The team had so many guys struggle in the 2nd half last season and didn't really address any needs other than third base. This is a veteran laden squad with a good manger, so don't be surprised if they prove me wrong. Much like the Brewers, the White Sox have issues down on the farm and seriously need to infuse talent into the minors. If Kenny Williams lets Rick Hahn have a little bit more control over the team, I think this won't be a major problem long-term.
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