2012 Record: 86-76
Pythag Record: 86-76
Games Out of First: 8.0
Top Performers by WAR (all fangraphs this time)
1. Clayton Kershaw, 5.5
2. A.J. Ellis, 4.1
3. Matt Kemp, 3.5
4. Andre Ethier, 2.9
5. Mark Ellis, 2.9
2012 Recap
If you really take the time to focus on a team's season, there is usually one defining moment that will tell you how the rest of the season went. For the Dodgers, this moment came in May when Matt Kemp suffered a hamstring injury and was placed on the DL. After putting up a 270 (TWO HUNDRED SEVENTY) wRC+ in April, Kemp's production really suffered. Led by a high BABIP in July, he came back from his injury and played well initially. However, the injury was aggravated at different points in the 2nd half and his 2nd half wRC+ was only 117. Outside of that, the Dodgers really just didn't have their team together for the whole year. They made the big trade for Josh Beckett, Adrian Gonzalez, and Carl Crawford mid-season. While Beckett and Crawford weren't much to miss, having Gonzalez' production at first base would have meant a more stable offense in the absence of Matt Kemp. Since Gonzalez wasn't around, the Dodgers put up some abysmal offensive numbers finishing 25th in team wRC+ and 23rd in BsR. Their pitching, on the other hand, was quite fantastic. They finished 12th in team xFIP and 4th (a tenth of a point out of a tie for 2nd) in team ERA. Throw in some average fielding and a run-of-the-mill division and it's easy to see how the team won 86 games.
Off Season Recap
$$$
"We are the Dodgers, and we are going to spend more money than you." It's clear what this new ownership group is all about: spend money to get wins and make more money. Things started in-season when the club acquired the contracts of Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, and Hanley Ramirez. Things didn't stop at that point, either; the club signed Zack Greinke and won the bidding for Korean star Hyun-Jin Ryu. The club also signed RP Brandon League and J.P. Howell to help solidify the bullpen. In short: cha-ching. Here's a recap:
Additions (dating back to mid-season):
LF Carl Crawford
1B Adrian Gonzalez
SS Hanley Ramirez
SP Josh Beckett
SP Zack Greinke
SP Hyun-Jin Ryu
RP Brandon League
RP J.P. Howell
Prospect Yasiel Puig
Subtractions (dating back to mid-season):
1B James Loney
SP Nathan Eovaldi
2013 Outlook
One of the great story lines in baseball every season is "can anyone beat the Evil Empire that is the Yankees?" For years, the National League was missing that element. The Braves and Cardinals win all the time but aren't insanely unlikable teams. The Cubs and Mets always spend a lot but never win. Now the Dodgers have stepped up and become the "Evil Empire" of the National League. They've got their big TV contract, have massively spiked their team payroll, and are ready to rock. If they can get Josh Beckett and Chad Billingsley healthy and on the right track, their rotation is going to be absolutely deadly. Kershaw, Greinke, Ryu, Beckett, and Billingsley 1-5 with Chris Capuano and Aaron Harang ready to step in if needed. They've got all kinds of depth to their pitching staff, and it should be their calling card. On offense, their 3-5 should be as good as just about anyone's. If Kemp stays healthy, Gonzalez returns to form, and Ramirez is healthy and showing he wants to play in LA, the Dodgers also should at least be a league average offense. It doesn't appear as if Carl Crawford is going to be in the mix opening day after being shut down with nerve damage in the elbow he had TJS on, but he won't be dearly missed. Here are the keys to their season:
1) Zack Greinke- He needs to earn the contract he got. The man always has great peripherals, but he hasn't turned that into an elite ERA since 2009. If the Dodgers want to take the West (like they should be able to) then Greinke needs to pitch like a #1.
2) Matt Kemp- His health is the central key to everything the Dodgers are trying to do. He is the elite player that this team is built around. If Kemp isn't healthy, then the Dodgers aren't going to score enough runs to win 90+ games.
3) Managing Egos- In modern sports, building star-laden teams is becoming a trend. As the Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Lakers have shown in recent seasons, the managing of these egos is a must. When you manage them properly, you wind up like the Yankees, Miami Heat, and Boston Celtics: with championships. When you don't, you wind up with an expensive PR disaster on your hands. This means everything rests on the coaching staff in 2013. Talent-wise, there isn't a real reason for the Dodgers to be anything less than the best team in the NL West.
Potential Breakout Player
Hyun-Jin Ryu, SP
He's really the only candidate here for the Dodgers, but he's a good one. Ryu was a star in Korea. He features a fastball/curve/slider/change mix with his changeup being his best pitch. Ryu has big game experience after pitching in and winning the 2008 Gold Medal game in the Olympics at 20 years old. At 25, he's about to head into the prime of his pitching career. With the right coaching, he can be a solid #3 for the Dodgers in 2013.
Potential Bust Player
A.J. Ellis, C
I'm going to keep this short: he really isn't that good. I don't think he will keep his ISO up and will have closer to 7 HR than 13 (maybe a 9% HR/FB rate instead of 12).
Starting Eight and Starting Rotation
C- A.J. Ellis
1B- Adrian Gonzalez
2B- Mark Ellis
SS- Hanley Ramirez
3B- Luis Cruz
LF- Carl Crawford (when he returns)
CF- Matt Kemp
RF- Andre Ethier
SP- Clayton Kershaw
SP- Zack Greinke
SP- Hyun-Jin Ryu
SP- Josh Beckett
SP- Chad Billingsley
Expectations
Record: 94-68
Team MVP: Clayton Kershaw, 7.1 WAR
Lasting Thought
The Dodgers are going to be really good for quite a while if they manage things properly. They've got nearly unlimited resources and are pretty good at developing young talent. If they play their cards right, they should be a regular fixture in the post season.
2012 Record: 88-74
Pythag Record: 93-79
Games Out of First: 9.0
Top Performers by WAR (normal mix here)
1. Yadier Molina, 6.7
2. Adam Wainwright, 4.4
3. Matt Holliday, 3.9
4. Carlos Beltran, 3.6
4. Kyle Lohse, 3.6
4. David Freese, 3.6
2012 Recap
As we should come to expect from the Cardinals organization, they took advantage of the new playoff format and became the first NL team to win the 2nd Wild Card. They then beat the Braves in a "questionable" one-game playoff and then beat the Nationals in an epic 5-game series. The team hit the NLCS, got up 3-1 on San Francisco, and wound up choking the series away as the Giants simply caught fire (winning their last 7 postseason games). On the field for St. Louis in the regular season, things were dominated by Yadier Molina. As the nucleus of the team, Molina had an MVP-caliber season but fell short of players like Buster Posey and Ryan Braun. The team was an offensive force finishing 3rd in team wRC+ and 5th in runs scored. Overall, the team's weakness was its defense. The club finished 21st in team UZR. There was some concern that pitching would take a step back with the loss of pitching coach Dave Duncan, but the team finished 3rd in team xFIP. Overall, this was a good team that only saw its defense and occasional bullpen stumbles as weaknesses.
Off Season Recap
As expected, the Cardinals had a really quiet off season. They have a lot of up-and-coming young players like Oscar Taveras, Shelby Miller, and Trevor Rosenthal so they really didn't want to get strapped down to any big contracts. As a result of this, the club let starter Kyle Lohse walk in free agency (he's still a free agent) and moved Skip Schumaker to LA. The team also suffered another key loss though as starter Chris Carpenter will miss the entire 2013 season (he really should just retire at this point). Here's a summary:
Additions:
RP Randy Choate
Subtractions:
SP Kyle Lohse
SP Chris Carpenter
2013 Outlook
The Cardinals are at an interesting point as an organization. Their core offensive players (David Freese, Yadier Molina, and Matt Holliday) are already/will soon be on the wrong side of 30. Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter are also on the wrong side of 30. However, they have lots of great young talent coming up. Oscar Taveras, Shelby Miller, and Trevor Rosenthal all will be key pieces this season and in the future for St. Louis. Going into the 2013 season, the team has plenty of potential talent. The only concern will be whether two things happen: 1) The old players avoid decline and 2) The young players step up quickly. If both of those things happen, the Cardinals will be a 90-win club. If neither happens, they may struggle to win 84 games. If one happens, they'll probably end up in the 86-88 win range, which is probably what is most likely to happen. Here are the keys:
1) Adam Wainwright- With Lohse and Carpenter now completely out of the picture and Jaime Carcia coming off of a shoulder injury, Wainwright needs to step back into ace form. At 31 this might be hard, but things were pretty solid for Waino last year. In terms of his peripherals, he really didn't miss a beat. Unfortunately, he just started off a little slow and tapered off a bit at the end of the year which isn't atypical of pitchers coming off of Tommy John Surgery.
2) Yadier Molina- There are several All-Star caliber players on this team, but Molina was the only one last year who was truly elite. If he doesn't repeat last season, then someone on the club is going to have to step up because there could be a couple wins in value that need to be replaced.
3) Right Field- There's tanking in the 2nd half and then there's what Carlos Beltran did. Man, he was terrible in the 2nd half last year. his BB rate dropped over 3 points, his strikeout rate rose almost 6 points, and his wRC+ dropped 51 points! With how he played last year in the 2nd half, I would be really tempted to give Taveras a shot at the starting job in RF just to see if Beltran wakes up. A key for the Cardinals this year is going to be their management of right field and maximizing the production from the position. With shortstop and second base already being potential black holes, the team can't afford to have a third position struggle.
Potential Breakout Player
Shelby Miller, SP
Last year Miller started off poorly and people got a bit concerned about his status as a prospect. From what I understand, the issue was mechanical and Miller went on to fix it. When he's on, Miller is a really good pitcher. In the short time he was up last year, he showed a strong low-mid 90's fastball, a power curve that averaged almost 80 MPH, and a sharp change up. As a starter he won't be able to use his fastball as much, so his success will depend on his breaking pitches. Seeing as those pitches are...uh...kinda good, I don't think Miller will miss a beat if he wins the 5th starter job.
Potential Bust Player
Yadier Molina, C
There is still something fishy about Molina's sudden offensive production. His massive change in power, charged by getting back to hitting far more fly balls, has been the key to his offensive success. For a guy that really struggled to get over 8% HR/FB ratio for the longest time in his career, seeing that figure at 13.8% was simply odd. Now, I don't think the number will drop off too much, but it's reasonable to assume it will drop. When it does, his power production will drop, which is the easiest way to produce offensive value. Because of this, I wouldn't be surprised if he dropped down to a mid-5's WAR player instead of near-7.
Starting Eight and Starting Rotation
C- Yadier Molina
1B- Allen Craig
2B- Daniel Delscalso
SS- Rafael Furcal (when he comes back)
3B- David Freese
LF- Matt Holliday
CF- John Jay
RF- Carlos Beltran
SP- Adam Wainwright
SP- Jaime Garcia
SP- Jake Westbrook
SP- Lance Lynn
SP- Shelby Miller
Expectations
Record: 86-76
Team MVP: Adam Wainwright, 5.8 WAR
Lasting Thought
It must be really nice to be in the midst of a "transition year" and still be a potential playoff team. At the end of the day, I think the Cardinals' starting rotation is going to be their undoing. They have plenty of depth, but the talent in the rotation really just isn't that great due to recent injury concerns. Replacing Lohse's 211 innings of 2.86 ERA pitching is going to be nearly impossible. Shelby Miller is good, but he's not THAT good. It was expected for that burden to fall on Chris Carpenter, but since he's not going to be there, the pitching will fall off a little bit. Remember though, we're talking about the Cardinals. More than likely they'll find a way to make things interesting at the end of the season. They've got the pieces to make a big deadline move, so we'll see just how much Cardinal management wants to push the issue.
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