2012 Record: 97-65
Pythag Record: 91-71
Games Out of First: NL Central Champions
Top Performers by WAR
1. Joey Votto, 5.6
2. Johnny Cueto, 4.8
3. Brandon Phillips, 3.5
4. Aroldis Chapman, 3.3
5. Mat Latos, 3.1
2012 Recap
At first glance the Reds' 2012 record is simply an example of how bad the NL Central was as a division for the bulk of the year. Joey Votto missed a third of the season and they still won 97 games. However, the team was 49-32 against its division foes and 48-33 outside of the division. The Reds were almost equally as good against non-NL Central foes as they were against their own division. Relatively speaking, the Reds were good at just about everything. Offensively they finished tied for 20th in wRC+, but with the presence of Joey Votto in the lineup it's possible they would have cracked the top 15. Where the Reds made the bulk of their value was in defense, base running, and pitching where they finished top 10 in UZR, BsR, and xFIP. If you can be a solid pitching club in a hitter's park, the bats will take care of themselves most of the time. However, the Reds' offense was still pretty overrated. Much like the Orioles, the Reds massively outperformed their Pythag record because of a fantastic effort from their bullpen. The Reds' bullpen ERA was a league-leading 2.65 in a shockingly-low 434 IP (2nd lowest to the Phillies). When they were needed, they were effective and that is what matters most.
Off Season Recap
There is one position that has changed for the Reds from 2012, and that's center field. In a 3-team trade with Arizona and Cleveland, the Reds shipped off DiDi Gregorious and Drew Stubs. In return, they managed to obtain Shin-Soo Choo (one of my favorite players in baseball, for the record). Other than that, the club re-signed Ryan Ludwick, gave Mat Latos a new contract, and will not have Scott Rolen. Really quiet off season with a really short summary:
Additions:
CF Shin-Soo Choo
Subtractions:
RP Ryan Madson (he didn't appear last year with the club)
CF Drew Stubbs
SS DiDi Gregorious
3B Scott Rolen
***Special note, here. The biggest thing the Reds did this off season was announce the move of Aroldis Chapman from the bullpen to the rotation. This is huge because Chapman was the 2nd best reliever in baseball last year and has had control and stamina issues as a starter in the past.***
2013 Outlook
Changing very little could mean bad things for the Reds going into 2013. They outperformed their Pythag record because of their bullpen and they removed the biggest piece from it. However, they will have a lot of potential value coming in as well. Joey Votto probably isn't going to be hurt next year for 1/3 of the season. If this is the case, he's easily the best hitter in baseball. Second, the upgrade to Choo offensively in center field is huge. While there is still a big question mark regarding how he'll perform defensively, the upgrade in value on offense should easily outweigh it. Then there's another gain: Todd Frazier will be playing third base every day instead of Scott Rolen. Rolen provided a lot of valueless innings last year, which kept Frazier out of the picture for the first part of the season. If Frazier can produce offensively like he did last year while playing every day at third, he'll be a 3+ WAR player. Here are some keys:
1. Joey Votto- Stay healthy and hit homers in the 2nd half, young man. Seriously though, if Votto hits like he did in the first half last year over a full season just give him the MVP award right now. However, that lack of power from the 2nd half is a serious concern going forward. I don't expect it to be a problem, but if it doesn't improve, then the Reds will be missing the biggest chunk of their power.
2. Aroldis Chapman- I'll explain why just a bit later.
3. Homer Bailey- Votto's bat was hurting in the 2nd half last year, but Bailey's arm wasn't. His performance in the 2nd half was gigantic, and it may have served as the reason as to why they won the division by so many games. To top things off, he threw a no hitter in Pittsburgh! If he can take his 2nd half success and carry it over into 2013, the Reds might have the best rotation in the NL.
Potential Breakout Player/Potential Bust Player/Key to Your Whole Season Special Segment
Aroldis Chapman, SP
It's really hard to put this into perspective, because I don't think I've ever seen a move like it. Last year, Aroldis Chapman didn't just have a great season as a closer...he had a historically phenomenal season. If not for Craig Kimbrel being Craig Kimbrel, he would have been the best reliever in baseball. The Reds have decided to take that performance and put it into the rotation. This is like suddenly deciding Joey Votto would be good at third or that Jay Bruce should play center instead of right. In my opinion, it's the ideal place where you wish you could play him, but ultimately I don't think it's the greatest move in the world. It shouldn't be hard for Chapman's arm to produce quite a bit of value in the rotation. However, I have my doubts about whether or not he will produce more value than when he was in the bullpen. 3.3 wins in value tied Ryan Dempster for 30th in all of baseball last season among starters. This gives a bit of perspective, because it reveals that Chapman needs to be a top 30 starter in the league in order for the move to be theoretically wise (now admittedly, pitcher WAR is pretty "meh" in terms of accurately showing past value, but Chapman's b-ref WAR was even higher!). If he breaks out, give the Central to them now. If he really falters, look for them to move him back to the bullpen and extract as much value as possible.
Starting Eight and Starting Rotation
C- Ryan Hanigan
1B- Joseph Daniel Votto (because you need to say his full name)
2B- Brandon Phillips
SS- Zack Cozart
3B- Todd Frazier
LF- Ryan Ludwick
CF- Shin-Soo Choo
RF- Jay Bruce
SP- Johnny Cueto
SP- Mat Latos
SP- Aroldis Chapman
SP- Homer Bailey
SP- Bronson Arroyo (he's still in the league)
Expectations
Record: 92-70
Team MVP: Joseph Daniel Votto, 9.1 WAR
Lasting Thought
I believed in the Reds going into last season, and I believe in them again this year. After really thinking about it, I think they might be the third best team in the NL, but they could also be best or fifth best for all I know. I believe this core group of guys will be around for a while even if the team chooses not to bring back the Choo Choo Train next season. I really like where this organization is, and it would be really cool to see them add another starter at the deadline to give that rotation some more thickness.
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