Red Bat Readings: 2013 Season Previews: The Final Edition

Alrighty everyone, we've finally reached the end of this series. I have deeply enjoyed doing the write-ups for every team, and I greatly appreciate the comments and debates that have come as a result of them. As usual, this talk got me re-thinking some things. Since I already had to go back and count wins to make sure everything added up to an 81-81 record over a 30 team population (so 2430 total wins), I went back and adjusted a few of the team records (which is why some are different than I predicted originally). Fun fact: I tried to be as fair and realistic as possible so that I could end up as close to 2430 total wins, and I wound up only handing out 2443 wins on the initial predictions (this was a lot better than the previous year, where we handed out something like 70 more wins than was actually possible). That being said, I added and subtracted wins across the board until I got to the magic 2430 wins. After all of the adjustments, here are the standings:

American League:

East:

Rays: 93-69

Blue Jays: 90-72 (1st Wild Card)

Yankees: 83-79

Orioles: 79-83

Red Sox: 78-84

Central:

Tigers: 93-69

Royals: 84-78

Indians: 81-81

White Sox: 80-82

Twins: 69-93

West:

Oakland: 89-73

Los Angeles: 89-73 (2nd Wild Card)

Texas: 87-75

Seattle: 83-79

Houston: 53-109

American League Playoffs:

Play-In Game: Angels @ Blue Jays

Division Round:

Play-In @ Detroit

Oakland @ Rays

National League:

East:

Nationals: 96-66

Braves: 88-74 (1st Wild Card)

Mets: 77-85

Phillies: 72-90

Marlins: 60-102

Central:

Reds: 92-70

Cardinals: 86-76 (2nd Wild Card)

Brewers: 83-79

Pirates: 82-80

Cubs: 70-92

West:

Dodgers: 92-70

Giants: 86-76

Padres: 78-84

D-Backs: 74-88

Rockies: 63-99

National League Playoffs:

Play-In Game: Cardinals @ Braves (version 2.0)

Divisional Round:

Play-In @ Nationals

Dodgers @ Reds

Championship Series Matchups

AL: Rays @ Tigers

NL: Reds @ Nationals

World Series Matchup

Tigers @ Nationals

World Series Champion

Washington Nationals

I went ahead and assumed no upsets in the playoffs, because predicting the playoffs is basically a pointless exercise. However, with the strength of the Nationals across the board, I am confident that they should be considered the favorites for the World Series crown in 2013. Everything goes back to their potential to be good/great at everything with elite talent and great depth. I don't think they have a true weakness going into the 2013 season.

Team Most Valuable Players:

Here is a list of all of the MVP's I have predicted for this season. While this isn't the list of the 30 best players in baseball, these are all guys that should have good/great seasons. Some fun facts about this list:

1) I have team MVP's combining for 184.5 wins.

2) If replacement level is 43 wins, that means 1290 of the 2430 wins are replacement level. That means that, of the 1140 remaining wins, team MVP value accounts for 16.2% of all value produced (I may have been a tad generous here, but it is a testament to how valuable front-line talent is).

3) The average team MVP produces 6.15 WAR

Astros: Jason Castro, 2.6

Cubs: Anthony Rizzo, 4.2

Rockies: Troy Tulowitzki, 6.2

Indians: Carlos Santana, 5.5

Twins: Joe Mauer, 4.8

Marlins: Giancarlo Stanton, 7.1

Red Sox: Dustin Pedroia, 6.3

Blue Jays: Jose Bautista, 6.3

Royals: Alex Gordon, 5.9

Mariners: Felix Hernandez, 6.4

Mets: David Wright, 6.1

Pirates: Andrew McCutchen, 6.5

Padres: Chase Headley, 4.7

Phillies: Cole Hamels, 6.1

D-Backs: Miguel Montero, 5.5

White Sox: Chris Sale, 5.6

Brewers: Ryan Braun, 7.4

Cardinals: Adam Wainwright, 5.8

Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw, 7.1

Angels: Mike Trout, 7.3

Rays: Evan Longoria, 6.8

Rangers: Yu Darvish, 6.1

Orioles: Matt Wieters, 5.9

Yankees: Robinson Cano, 6.3

Braves: Jason Heyward, 6.1

Athletics: Yoenis Cespedes, 5.9

Reds: Joey Votto, 9.1

Nationals: Stephen Strasburg, 7.4

Giants: Buster Posey, 5.4

Tigers: Justin Verlander, 7.1

Based on this list, here are the four major post season awards (2 MVP, 2 Cy Young):

American League MVP: Mike Trout, 7.3 WAR

American League Cy Young: Justin Verlander, 7.1 WAR

National League MVP: Joey Votto, 9.1 WAR

National League Cy Young: Stephen Strasburg, 7.4 WAR

Potential Breakout Candidates

One of my favorite things to do every year is predict who is going to break out and who is going to fall off. After my research last year, I became obsessed with player projection and roster construction, and I really tried to apply my skills to these areas. I wrote earlier this off season about my predictions from last year, and I did quite well. Before I go on too long, here is the list of players I think will break out (in no order of likelihood):

SP Max Scherzer, Detroit Tigers

1B Brandon Belt, San Francisco Giants

SP Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals

SP Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds

C John Jaso, Oakland Athletics

SS Andrelton Simmons, Atlanta Braves

C Matt Wieters, Baltimore Orioles

SP Yu Darvish, Texas Rangers

SP Matt Moore, Tampa Bay Rays

SP Hyun-Jin Ryu, Los Angeles Dodgers

SP Shelby Miller, St. Louis Cardinals

SP Marco Estrada, Milwaukee Brewers

C Tyler Flowers, Chicago White Sox

SP Tyler Skaggs, Arizona Diamondbacks

OF Dominic Brown, Philadelphia Phillies

1B Yonder Alonso, San Diego Padres

SP James McDonald, Pittsburgh Pirates

1B Ike Davis, New York Mets

1B Justin Smoak, Seattle Mariners

C Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals

3B Brett Lawrie, Toronto Blue Jays

3B Will Middlebrooks, Boston Red Sox

SS Adeiny Hechavarria, Miami Marlins

SP Kyle Gibson, Minnesota Twins

C/1B Carlos Santana, Cleveland Indians

C Wilin Rosario, Colorado Rockies

1B Anthony Rizzo, Chicago Cubs

C Jason Castro, Houston Astros

Here's a good spot to put these guys. Rookie of the Year winners:

SP Shelby Miller, St. Louis Cardinals

SP Kyle Gibson, Minnesota Twins

With every breakout comes a bust. Not everyone can continue to get better every year (unfortunately). Here are the *potential* bust candidates (keep in mind here, some of these are just players that need to be on watch while others are those I expect to fall off):

RF Torii Hunter, Detroit Tigers

2B Marco Scutaro, San Francisco Giants

1B Adam LaRoche, Washington Nationals

SP Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds

RF Josh Reddick, Oakland Athletics

LF Justin Upton, Atlanta Braves

SP Hiroki Kuroda, New York Yankees

The Entire Bullpen, Baltimore Orioles

3B Adrian Beltre, Texas Rangers

RF Josh Hamilton, Los Angeles Angels

C A.J. Ellis, Los Angeles Dodgers

C Yadier Molina, St. Louis Cardinals

CF Carlos Gomez, Milwaukee Brewers

RF Alex Rios, Chicago White Sox

2B Aaron Hill, Arizona Diamondbacks

C Carlos Ruiz, Philadelphia Phillies

3B Chase Headley, San Diego Padres

3B Pedro Alvarez, Pittsburgh Pirates

3B David Wright, New York Mets

LF Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals

SP Josh Johnson, Toronto Blue Jays

SP Ryan Dempster, Boston Red Sox

RF Giancarlo Stanton, Miami Marlins

LF Josh Willingham, Minnesota Twins

1B Nick Swisher, Cleveland Indians

RF Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado Rockies

LF Alfonso Soriano, Chicago Cubs

Overall Season Keys

Not every "key" from each team is equivalent in value. I purposefully did not rank the keys for each team individually because I wanted to take some more time to think about it. After thinking hard, here are the top 10 most important things going into the 2013 season:

1) Aroldis Chapman: He has to be number one. The Reds are playing some Russian Roulette by moving him from the bullpen (3.3 wins) to the rotation. If he works out, they should be able to reach the NLCS at the very least. If he doesn't, they could surrender the division to St. Louis and risk missing the playoffs.

2) Managing Egos (Dodgers): In modern sports, All Star rosters are becoming more common. These rosters don't succeed unless they are managed properly both on and off the field. If things aren't kept in check and that clubhouse struggles, the Dodgers could be an 81 win team.

3) Detroit's Health: They are seriously thin across the board. If any of their big guys get hurt, they'll open the door for one of the AL Central teams to step up.

4) Kansas City's Bouncebacks/Breakouts: There are bounceback/breakout candidates all over this roster. For the Royals to truly give the Tigers a run for their money, they *need* Hosmer, Moustakas, Santana, and Perez to bounce back and break out. If they don't, then I think the Tigers will run away with the division in the final month. If they do, then look for a good September AL Central race.

5) Stephen Strasburg: He's all over this full season post, and that comes with good reason. If he pitches the way he can over 220 IP, I don't think the Nationals will be touched in the National League. They are *that* good if he plays the way he can.

6) Baltimore's Bullpen: With as great as they were results-wise last year, the key to Baltimore's season is going to be their ability to lock down games. They can go from an 88 win team to a 72 win team very quickly if the bullpen has a bad year.

7) Evan Longoria: If he's hurt again, I think the Jays take the division. His presence is that important to Tampa Bay. If he isn't healthy, you can subtract three wins from Tampa's record.

8) Tim Lincecum: With so many things up in the air, it's tough to put into perspective just how important Lincecum can be. He will be the difference between the 84 win team I predicted an an 87-88 win team fighting for a playoff spot.

9) Brian McCann: As the catcher of a young pitching staff, his health and ability to call games are huge. If he is healthy, hits well, and manages the staff properly, I believe the Braves will win 90+ games.

10) Mike Scioscia: As I said in the write-up I did for the Angels, he has all of the pieces. He just needs to manage them properly. Ultimately I think his small ball roots will lead him to mismanage the team just enough to make it so they can't win the division (their depth issues also don't help).

Team Links

For being great readers, I am putting all of the links to the previews here. Keep in mind that things have changed since I've written them:

Astros: http://musingsofthemammoth.blogspot.com/2013/02/2013-season-predictions-part-one.html

Cubs: http://musingsofthemammoth.blogspot.com/2013/02/2013-season-predictions-part-two.html

Rockies: http://musingsofthemammoth.blogspot.com/2013/02/2013-season-previews-part-three.html

Twins + Indians: http://musingsofthemammoth.blogspot.com/2013/02/2013-season-previews-parts-4-minnesota.html

Red Sox + Marlins: http://musingsofthemammoth.blogspot.com/2013/02/2013-season-previews-parts-six-and.html

Royals + Blue Jays: http://musingsofthemammoth.blogspot.com/2013/02/2013-season-previews-parts-eight-and.html

Mets + Mariners: http://musingsofthemammoth.blogspot.com/2013/02/2013-season-previews-parts-10-and-11.html

Padres + Pirates: http://musingsofthemammoth.blogspot.com/2013/02/2013-season-previews-parts-12-and-13.html

D-Backs + Phillies: http://musingsofthemammoth.blogspot.com/2013/02/2013-season-previews-parts-14-and-15.html

Brewers + White Sox: http://musingsofthemammoth.blogspot.com/2013/02/2013-season-previews-parts-16-and-17.html