2012 Record: 88-74
Pythag Record: 87-75
Games Out of First: AL Central Champions
Top Performers by WAR
1. Miguel Cabrera, 6.9
2. Justin Verlander, 6.8
3. Austin Jackson, 5.2
4. Max Scherzer, 4.6
5. Prince Fielder, 4.4
2012 Recap
It is difficult to say properly, but the Tigers experienced a slightly disappointing season last year despite making the World Series. The team went 43-29 against the AL Central and 45-46 against everyone else in MLB. To put it simply: they won a lot because their division stunk (and that isn't surprising, given only two teams were even above .500). However, this doesn't mean they didn't have a good year last year, because they did. What it means is that the performance of their players has to be put into context. 6.9 WAR for Cabrera against the Tigers' competition is less impressive than, say, if Robinson Cano had provided 6.9 WAR against the Yankees' schedule. Let's focus on the positives, though. The Tigers did what was important: they reached the postseason. When you reach the postseason, nothing else really matters because the postseason is a complete crapshoot. When they got to this crapshoot, the Tigers played pretty well until they reached the scorching hot Giants in the World Series. As expected, the Tigers were an offensive giant in the regular season, finishing 4th in team wRC+, but they were also putrid in the field and on the bases (bottom five in both BsR and UZR). On the pitching side of things, the Tigers finished 1st in pitcher WAR and 5th in team xFIP. I know I've harped on this before, but you don't have to do the little things well when you do the big things really well. This is even more so the case when the quality of your competition is poor over 162 games.
Off Season Recap
It's rare, in my opinion, that World Series teams ever change their rosters a lot. After all, common thinking is that if a roster got you to the World Series, why would you change it? Thankfully for Tigers fans, management didn't take this line of thinking at any point this off season. The Tigers took their weaknesses on and improved their club immensely. Firstly, the team did the best thing any club can do: they let Delmon Young walk in free agency. Better yet, they filled his spot with Torii Hunter (a 5 WAR player last year with the Angels). They had another great addition by subtraction when they let Jose Valverde walk in free agency. While his spot still hasn't been filled, it shouldn't be hard for the club to find a solid replacement. However, the team's best acquisition of this off season wasn't even a move they made. They get DH Victor Martinez back from injury, which means far fewer plate appearances for Brennan Boesch, who was a negative WAR player in the field and at the plate. The Tigers took addition by subtraction and made it into an art form. Here's a summary:
Additions (dating back to mid-season):
RF Torii Hunter
DH Victor Martinez
2B Omar Infante
SP Anibal Sanchez (they re-signed him)
Subtractions:
LF Delmon Young
RP Jose Valverde
2013 Outlook
There are two important things to consider here: 1) The Tigers' AL Central opponents got better as a group and 2) They still have quite a few primary contributors in their primes. Those things are important, because predicting their 2013 success is a two way street. On one end, they undoubtedly have a better roster going into the 2013 season and should have plenty of great performances, but their competition has gotten better. Going 43-29 within the division this year is a tall task, and the AL West has improved a lot (well...except for Houston). Where the Tigers might be able to pick up wins is against the AL East. Overall, the Tigers still have the same problems they did last year: defense is really bad and they still can't run the bases. However, their offense is absofreakinglutely loaded. Cabrera/Fielder/Martinez/Hunter as a 3-6 is relatively unmatched throughout MLB. Here are the keys:
1) Justin Verlander: Now that he's hit 30, he can't slow down. He's logged 953 innings over the past 4 years, and that is a large number of miles on his arm. Knowing who he is, I don't believe he will slow down one bit. This means we can expect competition for another Cy Young award and another season close to 7 WAR.
2) Victor Martinez: Seeing as he's a DH and the injury he's coming back from is a torn ACL, I don't see any reason he can't just hop back on the horse and do well. He may start off a bit slow since he won't have seen regular season MLB competition since fall of 2011, but I think he's going to eventually come back with the same bat he had before.
3) Bullpen: A big key for the Tigers is going to be how they manage their bullpen. If they fill the closer role with one of Rick Porcello, Octavio Dotel, or a closer they acquire via trade they will be just fine.
4) Depth: The Tigers really don't have much. Smyly and Porcello will probably take turns in the 5 spot throughout the season if Porcello doesn't end up the closer, but the offensive depth is nonexistent. They really need to avoid injuries to key guys like Cabrera, Fielder, and Verlander if they want to win as many games as I think Tigers fans are expecting.
Potential Breakout Player
Max Scherzer, SP
I'm a really big fan of this guy going into 2013. While I don't think he's going to repeat his strikeout rate, I do think he's going to keep it really high. He learned how to use his breaking pitches last year and it showed. His slider racked up massive win values, which made his overall off speed stuff a positive. As you can imagine, the heightened strikeout rate was the result of a massively increased swing and miss percentage. While he didn't induce any more swings at bad pitches out of the zone than normal, he got a lot more misses within the zone. Scherzer was a monster in the 2nd half last year, and I think that will carry over into the 2013 season.
Potential Bust Player
Torii Hunter, RF
He had a GB rate of over 50% last season and a BABIP of .389. Producing a 130 wRC+ without power isn't impossible, but it's pretty difficult. With a .136 ISO and the BIP splits he carried, I'm not a fan of Hunter going into the 2013 season. While I think he is still a massive improvement over Delmon Young/Brennan Boesch, I don't think he's going to be a 5 WAR player ever again.
Starting Nine and Starting Rotation
C- Alex Avila
1B- Prince Fielder
2B- Omar Infante
SS- Jhonny Peralta
3B- Miguel Cabrera
LF- Andy Dirks/Quinton Berry
CF- Austin Jackson
RF- Torii Hunter
DH- Victor Martinez
SP- Justin Verlander
SP- Max Scherzer
SP- Doug Fister
SP- Anibal Sanchez
SP- Drew Smyly
Expectations
Record: 93-69
Team MVP: Justin Verlander, 7.1 WAR
Lasting Thought
On paper, I believe this is the best team in the American League. I know some will disagree, but I think replacing Young and Boesch as regulars is truly incredible for this team. Those two players were regulars who combined for -2.6 wins last year (-2.0 on fangraphs). If Victor Martinez can be a 3 WAR player at DH and Torii Hunter can be a 3 WAR player in right field, that's a combined 6 wins and over 8 wins of improvement just among those two positions alone. With Ryan Raburn and Don Kelly also out of the picture, the club looks to have improved by a possible 9 wins over last year (not counting what Anibal Sanchez can possibly provide over what they got from the #4 slot in the rotation last year). Adjusting for the fact that competition got better, I feel as if 95 wins is reasonable for this team in 2013.
2012 Record: 94-68
Pythag Record: 88-74
Games Out of First: NL West Champions
Top Performers by WAR:
1. Buster Posey, 7.2
2. Melky Cabrera, 4.7
3. Angel Pagan, 4.0
4. Matt Cain, 3.8
5. Madison Bumgarner, 3.4
2012 Recap
At last we arrive at the World Series champions. Yes, the post season for the Giants last year was pretty remarkable. They were down 2-0 to Cincinnati in the NLDS and came back to win (all 3 games in Cincy after getting BEAT DOWN in game 2), they were down 3-1 to St. Louis and came back to win (behind a stellar performance from Barry Zito), and then rocked the Tigers 4-0 in the World Series behind the bat of Pablo Sandoval. In the regular season, they finished 9th in wRC+ (thanks to a hot start by Melky Cabrera and strong finishes by Buster Posey and Marco Scutaro), 13th in team xFIP, 10th in UZR, and 9th in BsR. Overall, they were a solid team that did everything pretty well. What really was most impressive about the 2012 Giants was that they were relevant without Tim Lincecum factoring into their success. Yes, Timmeh fell off a lot in 2012 with a 5.18 ERA in over 180 IP. Much like the Tigers, the Giants succeeded in most part because of their division. They were 45-27 against the NL West and 49-41 against everyone else. When you play 18 games above .500 against your division, good things happen at the end (like a post season birth and a World Series victory).
Off Season Recap
The Giants changed very little this off season. After acquiring Hunter Pence and Marco Scutaro in-season and re-signing Angel Pagan early this off season, the team really just didn't have much to change. They decided to let Melky Cabrera walk to Toronto even though his suspension was up and they decided to part ways with The Beard (Brian Wilson remains unsigned). Outside of that, there really wasn't much the team needed to change (their other move was re-signing lefty Jeremy Affeldt to a rather large contract). Here's a summary:
Additions (dating back to mid-season):
RF Hunter Pence
2B Marco Scutaro
Subtractions:
OF Melky Cabrera
RP Brian Wilson
2013 Outlook
I thought the Giants missed out on a great opportunity this off season to get younger while also getting better. The center field market was very deep this off season (if you include that Ben Revere and Denard Span were on the market) and the Giants simply elected to re-sign Angel Pagan. It also may have been an on-field mistake not to bring back Melky Cabrera (though it appears the clubhouse will be better off without him). This all being said, we're still talking about the Giants. They are going to pitch well, they are going to field well, and they will probably have trouble scoring runs. I very much doubt that Buster Posey repeats his 2nd half from last year in any way (given it was driven by a near 10 point increase in HR/FB rate) and someone has to replace Melky Cabrera's luck-driven (NOT PED-driven) production from the first half. I think there is someone who can do that, and you'll find out who he is in the keys:
1. Brandon Belt: Time's up. The team finally gave him his opportunity last year and he needs to build on it now. He's got a great power swing, and it's about time he finally learned to use it in-game. Seven home runs won't get it done at first base in MLB. He needs to see that number grow to something closer to 25, which I think it will.
2. Tim Lincecum: The best way to counteract the expected decline on offense is to make it up in the pitching staff. Lincecum *needs* to come back if the Giants want to find their way into the post season again. The Dodgers, Reds, Nationals, Braves, and Cardinals all appear to be as good or better than San Francisco right now if Lincecum pitches like he did last year. The difference for them will be whether or not he can right the ship.
3. Buster Posey: His first half was really good, but his second half was legendary. I truly believe the first half (probably a 4-5 WAR pace) is what should be expected of him. However, if he does what he did in the 2nd half, then the Giants will be a high-80's win team.
4. Bullpen: You don't outperform your Pythag record by six games without a really good bullpen. The bullpen needs to be equally as strong, if not better, for the Giants to get back into the postseason.
Potential Breakout Player
Brandon Belt, 1B
I wrote about him earlier this off season. I think his power bat is going to finally show up and he will hit 25-20 home runs. I don't think his HR/FB rate is going to be 6% this year. Now, this could mean an increase in strikeouts since he will start swinging for the fences more, but that's not a problem at all if the ball starts going out of the park more frequently. Look for Belt to have a big season.
Potential Bust Player
Marco Scutaro, 2B
For this pick, I'm talking strictly about coming down from how good he was in San Francisco last year. His rates last year over a full season put him in the top 3 second basemen in baseball. Let's face some facts: Marco Scutaro is NOT a top 5 second baseman in this league. I look for him to play along his typical 100 OPS+ rate over the full season.
Starting Eight and Starting Rotation
C- Buster Posey
1B- Brandon Belt
2B- Marco Scutaro
SS- Brandon Crawford
3B- Pablo Sandoval
LF- Gregor Blanco/Andres Torres
CF- Angel Pagan
RF- Hunter Pence
SP- Matt Cain
SP- Madison Bumgarner
SP- Ryan Vogelsong
SP- Tim Lincecum
SP- Barry Zito
Expectations
Record: 84-78
Team MVP: Buster Posey, 5.4 WAR
Lasting Thought
I think this team was incredibly fortunate in 2012. When one guy fell off (or got suspended), another guy (or multiple guys) stepped up and made his absence unknown. The Giants aren't a particularly deep team, they have a pretty old/injury prone starting unit, and their pitching staff is a complete wild card all around. I still think this is a good team, but things need to be put into perspective. Bullpens are volatile and the team needs to have multiple guys (Sandoval and Belt, particularly) step up and make up for the absence of value that appeared from Melky Cabrera, Marco Scutaro, and Buster Posey having individually phenomenal halves of the season. Perhaps I'm being too negative here, but 84 wins sounds exactly right.
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