2012 Record: 98-64
Pythag Record: 96-66
Games Out of First: NL East Champions
Top Performers by WAR
1. Gio Gonzalez, 5.4
2. Bryce Harper, 5.0
3. Stephen Strasburg, 4.3
4. Adam LaRoche, 4.0
5. Ryan Zimmerman, 3.8
2012 Recap
Last year I wrote all about how the Nationals were going to break out as a team. Some called it bold. Some said "they aren't ready yet." Obviously the 2012 Nationals did not care about those people. With Jayson Werth and Wilson Ramos missing significant amounts of time during the season, the team still managed to win 98 games and cruise into the playoffs. Unfortunately for the Nats, they didn't draw as many positive headlines as they should have. The national media wanted to focus on the innings limit for Stephen Strasburg rather than talk about how the team had the best record in the league for a lot of the latter portion of the 2nd half. Unfortunately the Nationals' season came to an end as the team blew a huge lead against the St. Louis Cardinals in Game 5 of the NLDS. Would the outcome have been different with Strasburg on the hill? Possibly, but it was clear that for four games and 8 innings worth of play the Nationals were good enough to take down the Cardinals without him. In the regular season, the team finished 7th in wRC+, 13th in team UZR, dead last in BsR, 7th in team xFIP, and 2nd in team ERA. With running the bases as their only legitimate flaw, the Nationals were able to crush the rest of the league (which, again, shows the fact that you don't need to do the little things exceptionally well if you do the big things exceptionally well). This team was littered with good/great individual performances as well. Gio Gonzalez and Bryce Harper had breakout years, Stephen Strasburg was phenomenal, and Adam LaRoche's completely unexpected contribution helped alleviate the pain of losing Ramos for the year early in the season.
Off Season Recap
When you have a really good roster, a fairly adequate farm system, and resources to burn you can afford to take risks. The Nationals did that this off season. The club decided to let Edwin Jackson walk in free agency and used his rotation slot to sign SP Dan Haren to a one-year deal. In another move, the club traded Alex Meyer to Minnesota for CF Denard Span. Both moves addressed needs for the ball club and allow them to play players in more natural positions (despite being adequate there, Bryce Harper just isn't a center fielder). The team topped off their off season by signing star RP Rafael Soriano to a rather acceptable contract (2 years/$14 million with a 2015 team option for $14 million). While this came at the cost of a draft pick, it was a move the club felt they needed to make. Here's a recap:
Additions:
SP Dan Haren
CF Denard Span
RP Rafael Soriano
SP A.J. Cole
Subtractions:
SP Edwin Jackson
SP John Lannan
LF/1B Michael Morse
P Alex Meyer
2013 Outlook
If Wilson Ramos can have a good year at catcher along with Kurt Suzuki, then I feel comfortable in saying that the Nationals aren't weak at any positions. They have average-or-better starters at every offensive position, they have incredible depth on the bench, they have great rotational depth (with Christian Garcia ready to step in if anyone gets hurt along with Ryan Perry, Ross Ohlendorf, and Chris Young), and the back end of their bullpen is dynamic with Tyler Clippard, Drew Storen, and Rafael Soriano closing things out. I imagine your typical Nationals win will go like this: offense scores solid 5 runs, starter goes 6 or 7 innings allowing 2 runs, bullpen trio/duo comes in and gives up a run at most. 5-3 win for the Nationals. If people stay healthy and actually improve upon their skills, then this team could win 6-1 or 6-2 a lot as well. One of the rare things in sports is to have a team that can turn to another strength when one of its strengths is having a bad day (like in basketball, where if LeBron is having a rough shooting day, Dwyane Wade can step in and put up 35). The Nationals have that, they have remarkable depth, and they have a bunch of stars on the upswing. Here are some keys:
1. Lineup Management- When you have all of the pieces to a puzzle, you still need to know how to put it all together to get the right picture. With Davey Johnson at the helm, the key to the Nationals' season is going to be how they structure their lineup. For example, the depth chart site I use has Bryce Harper hitting 2nd. In my opinion, this would be a big waste of his power potential (I would have him hitting 3rd so he could get the biggest mix of RBI opportunities and plate appearances). They have Kurt Suzuki starting at catcher as well (I would start Wilson Ramos). It would be a shame if the team was managed out of the best record in baseball, but I don't see that happening.
2. Stephen Strasburg- Alright guys, he's got a full season to work with. For years, people have been wondering what Stephen Strasburg can do over a full season. 300 strikeouts? 2.50 ERA or better? 25 wins with this lineup behind him? All of those questions will be answered, and Strasburg needs to perform well. With the uncertainty in the rotation behind him (Gio could fall off, Haren will probably get hurt) he needs to pitch like the ace that he is.
Potential Breakout Player
Stephen Strasburg, SP
On paper, this looks like the dumbest and least-fitting "Breakout Player" segment of all time. Let me explain. When I think of "breaking out" as a phrase, I think about two things: 1) An bench/role player/poor regular bursting onto the scene and becoming average or better and 2) Good players becoming truly *GREAT* players. The second is what I'm thinking for Strasburg. He'll get a shot at 220 IP, he'll have a great defense behind him, and he's the best player on the best team in baseball. The stage is set. Strasburg just needs to find its center.
Potential Bust Player
Adam LaRoche, 1B
Time to be a Negative Nancy. Not everything I say about the Nationals can be rainbows and unicorns. LaRoche had a huge season last year, and I really just don't think he's going to repeat it. He had his highest ISO since 2008 and hit the most line drives of his career. However, none of this has anything to do with why I think he will bust. LaRoche is currently 33 years old and has significant injury history. The entire reason I have him listed as a bust candidate is that he constantly gets hurt. Outside of that, I don't really see a lot of reason for his offensive production or defensive production to come down. He was finally healthy again and showed what he can do. However, still have to label him as a potential bust.
Starting Nine and Starting Rotation
C- Wilson Ramos
1B- Adam LaRoche
2B- Danny Espinosa
SS- Ian Desmond (didn't even get to talk about his breakout campaign)
3B- Ryan Zimmerman
LF- Bryce Harper
CF- Denard Span
RF- Jayson Werth
SP- Stephen Strasburg
SP- Gio Gonzalez
SP- Jordan Zimmermann
SP- Dan Haren*
SP- Ross Detwiler
*If he's healthy and able to produce like years past, just forget about beating the Nationals. They're the World Series favorite if he plays like that.*
Expectations
Record: 96-66
Team MVP: Stephen Strasburg, 7.4 WAR
Lasting Thought
I had been battling in my head over who I think will win the NL East, and I think the answer is clear in my mind now. The Nationals have more star power, better balance, and better depth than Atlanta. While the Braves are a bit better at the little things and solid all around, I think they are a good bit behind the Nationals for now. Obviously things change if a megastar like Strasburg or Harper is injured early for the year and lost for the season, but I think the Nationals are still a 90 win team even without Harper or Strasburg on the roster, which is what is most impressive about them. Right now I'd have to label them as my World Series favorite, and that will remain the case until someone beats them in the post season or they lose someone of significant value.
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