WAR and Fantasy Baseball: Any Connection?

So along with being one who blogs frequently and researches both important and obscure things within baseball, I fancy myself a bit of a fantasy baseball nut.  I'll play Roto, H2H, points, with divisions, without divisions, with BA, with OPS, with wins (reluctantly), and with just about anyone who wants to play.  Each year, I spend my fair share of time doing research on who I think should be taken and when they should be taken.  Up until last year, this research involved looking into home runs, averages, and roster construction.  However, as some of my readers may know, last year changed the way I think about baseball quite a bit.  In an extensive research project, I looked at how contact quality could be used to predict on-base percentage. I used the results of this study to make projections for 105 MLB regulars heading into the 2012 season.  This, combined with my knowledge of how to project power numbers, led me to predict OPS as well.  To stick true to my research, I went and drafted my 2012 fantasy baseball offense based on these projections.  Despite many injuries to both my offense and pitching staff that led me to moving players around and essentially blowing up my team, I finished exactly one thousandth of a point off the OPS crown (I finished with a team OPS of .814 for those that are curious). However, because of said injuries and unexpected disappointments in certain lineups (real gem of a job, Reds leadoff hitters) I finished with a lackluster overall offensive performance.

Why do I bring this up?  Well, my research into fantasy baseball never stops.  This year I'm doing the same league, and I'm going with the same approach.  Due to my reputation as being a bit of a stats nut, one of my co-players teased at the notion that I should rank players by WAR and do an auto draft.  While I would never do this for a slew of different reasons, it did get me thinking a bit.  First off, what is the purpose of WAR?  To approximate value based on overall performance.  What is the purpose of fantasy baseball rankings? To sort players based on an approximation of their overall projected performance.  Obviously the key issue here is that fantasy baseball is all about offense and WAR encompasses all parts of baseball.  This problem is quite easily solved by breaking apart WAR and simply using its offensive component.  So the question that comes up is: if you drafted a fantasy offense solely on oWAR, how would that compare to drafting based on Yahoo's rankings? I am here to figure that out.

Step One:  Setup

The first part of undertaking any research project is to understand what you are trying to find.  The thought here is that oWAR and fantasy baseball rankings should be looking to accomplish the same thing: telling the story of overall value relative to your raw performance, your position, and your park (and for fantasy baseball: the team around you).  To continue this understanding, here are a few key things to know:

1) oWAR hurts players for playing in a favorable environment whereas fantasy baseball rankings promote that.  It can't be denied that Carlos Gonzalez gets a boost in fantasy rankings because he plays half of his games in Coors Field.

2) Traditional fantasy baseball does not split the outfield into three positions.  Because of this, oWAR numbers for certain outfielders will be higher/lower than they *should* be, because the positional adjustments favor center fielders over left and right fielders.

3) oWAR cares not about the lineup around a player.  Part of the reason for creating oWAR and similar metrics was to get an idea of how a player would contribute given the "average" or "typical" environment.  Fantasy baseball cares a lot about the lineup around a player.  Giancarlo Stanton is hurt by the fact that Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez are no longer a part of the Marlins' organization.

4) Both oWAR and fantasy baseball are concerned with playing time.  They both rely on a player's ability to accumulate numbers over time.

With these things in mind, I created a table with several different categories.  I took into account games played in 2011 and 2012, oWAR in 2011 and 2012, oWAR/162 games in 2011 and 2012, and a projection of performance in 2013.  I wanted to incorporate overall performance, performance rates, and playing time so as to be able to account for injuries.  With this all set up, I was able to get into the data.

Step Two: Analysis

The following chart ranks Yahoo's top 100 players (the base column on the far left) and then lists how those rankings would look if they were based on other things:
 

Rank	Yahoo 2013	By 2012 oWAR	By Expected 2013 oWAR	By 2012 oWAR/162
1	Mike Trout	Mike Trout	Mike Trout	Mike Trout
2	Ryan Braun	Andrew McCutchen	Miguel Cabrera	Buster Posey
3	Miguel Cabrera	Miguel Cabrera	Andrew McCutchen	Andrew McCutchen
4	Robinson Cano	Buster Posey	Jose Bautista	Miguel Cabrera
5	Matt Kemp	Robinson Cano	Ryan Braun	Robinson Cano
6	Albert Pujols	Chase Headley	Matt Kemp	Melky Cabrera
7	Joey Votto	Ryan Braun	Buster Posey	Joey Votto
8	Andrew McCutchen	Adrian Beltre	Robinson Cano	Ryan Braun
9	Carlos Gonzalez	Adam Jones	Joey Votto	Chase Headley
10	Prince Fielder	Ben Zobrist	Yoenis Cespedes	Yadier Molina
11	Giancarlo Stanton	Edwin Encarnacion	Chase Headley	Adrian Beltre
12	Troy Tulowitzki	Prince Fielder	Bryce Harper	Austin Jackson
13	Jose Bautista	David Wright	Adrian Beltre	David Ortiz
14	Buster Posey	Joe Mauer	Ben Zobrist	Giancarlo Stanton
15	Josh Hamilton	Yadier Molina	Jose Reyes	Matt Kemp
16	Adrian Beltre	Aramis Ramirez	Evan Longoria	Edwin Encarnacion
17	Evan Longoria	Austin Jackson	Prince Fielder	Joe Mauer
18	David Wright	Aaron Hill	Yadier Molina	Ben Zobrist
19	Justin Upton	Melky Cabrera	Austin Jackson	Jose Bautista
20	Dustin Pedroia	Joey Votto	David Ortiz	Yoenis Cespedes
21	Hanley Ramirez	Jose Reyes	Joe Mauer	Aramis Ramirez
22	Ian Kinsler	Shin-Soo Choo	Aramis Ramirez	Adam Jones
23	Edwin Encarnacion	Josh Hamilton	Melky Cabrera	David Wright
24	Jose Reyes	Matt Holliday	Giancarlo Stanton	Evan Longoria
25	Jason Heyward	Josh Willingham	Adam Jones	Prince Fielder
26	Bryce Harper	Giancarlo Stanton	Troy Tulowitzki	Josh Willingham
27	Adam Jones	Yoenis Cespedes	Edwin Encarnacion	Aaron Hill
28	Curtis Granderson	Derek Jeter	David Wright	Josh Hamilton
29	Jacoby Ellsbury	Curtis Granderson	Josh Hamilton	Ian Desmond
30	Jay Bruce	Albert Pujols	Dustin Pedroia	Shin-Soo Choo
31	Adrian Gonzalez	Ryan Zimmerman	Matt Holliday	Jose Reyes
32	Matt Holliday	Ian Desmond	Justin Upton	Matt Holliday
33	Starlin Castro	Alex Gordon	Josh Willingham	Dustin Pedroia
34	Billy Butler	Dustin Pedroia	Curtis Granderson	Miguel Montero
35	Ryan Zimmerman	Asdrubal Cabrera	Asdrubal Cabrera	Ryan Zimmerman
36	Yoenis Cespedes	Miguel Montero	Albert Pujols	Asdrubal Cabrera
37	Paul Goldschmidt	Matt Kemp	Carlos Santana	Derek Jeter
38	B.J. Upton	Carlos Santana	Pablo Sandoval	Carlos Santana
39	Allen Craig	Alex Rios	Shin-Soo Choo	Salvador Perez
40	Joe Mauer	Jason Kipnis	Alex Gordon	Albert Pujols
41	Chase Headley	Bryce Harper	Jason Kipnis	Bryce Harper
42	Jason Kipnis	Billy Butler	Chase Utley	Curtis Granderson
43	Brett Lawrie	Jason Heyward	Mike Napoli	Chase Utley
44	Brandon Phillips	Michael Bourn	Derek Jeter	Alex Gordon
45	Ian Desmond	Martin Prado	Ryan Zimmerman	Allen Craig
46	Ben Zobrist	David Freese	Miguel Montero	Nick Markakis
47	Mark Teixeira	B.J. Upton	Allen Craig	Jason Kipnis
48	Pablo Sandoval	David Ortiz	Ian Desmond	Alex Rios
49	Elvis Andrus	Jimmy Rollins	Jason Heyward	Pablo Sandoval
50	Aaron Hill	Jose Altuve	Salvador Perez	David Freese
51	Yadier Molina	Nick Swisher	Aaron Hill	B.J. Upton
52	David Ortiz	Jose Bautista	Carlos Beltran	Billy Butler
53	Jimmy Rollins	Starlin Castro	Alex Rios	Jose Altuve
54	Freddie Freeman	Carlos Beltran	B.J. Upton	Nick Swisher
55	Carlos Santana	Adam LaRoche	Starlin Castro	Michael Bourn
56	Alex Rios	Pedro Alvarez	Jacoby Ellsbury	Alejandro De Aza
57	Desmond Jennings	Hanley Ramirez	David Freese	Martin Prado
58	Aramis Ramirez	Paul Goldschmidt	Desmond Jennings	Jason Heyward
59	Anthony Rizzo	Allen Craig	Adrian Gonzalez	Pedro Alvarez
60	Michael Bourn	Elvis Andrus	Michael Bourn	Paul Goldschmidt
61	Victor Martinez	Matt Wieters	Jimmy Rollins	Will Middlebrooks
62	Matt Wieters	Paul Konerko	Matt Wieters	Jimmy Rollins
63	Shin-Soo Choo	Alejandro De Aza	Carlos Gonzalez	Carlos Beltran
64	Ryan Howard	Mark Trumbo	Paul Konerko	Anthony Rizzo
65	Martin Prado	Carlos Gonzalez	Nick Markakis	Adam LaRoche
66	Carlos Beltran	Rickie Weeks	Brett Lawrie	Matt Wieters
67	Austin Jackson	Pablo Sandoval	Jose Altuve	Troy Tulowitzki
68	Mark Trumbo	Nick Markakis	Nick Swisher	Paul Konerko
69	Asdrubal Cabrera	Evan Longoria	Elvis Andrus	Starlin Castro
70	Alex Gordon	Brandon Phillips	Victor Martinez	Carlos Gonzalez
71	Wilin Rosario	Desmond Jennings	Alejandro De Aza	Hanley Ramirez
72	Nelson Cruz	Brett Lawrie	Billy Butler	Mark Trumbo
73	Jose Altuve	Ian Kinsler	Martin Prado	Elvis Andrus
74	Paul Konerko	Chase Utley	Pedro Alvarez	Mike Napoli
75	Shane Victorino	Dan Uggla	Paul Goldschmidt	Brett Lawrie
76	David Freese	Mark Teixeira	Rickie Weeks	Desmond Jennings
77	Melky Cabrera	Wilin Rosario	Brandon Phillips	Wilin Rosario
78	Miguel Montero	Carlos Gomez	Wilin Rosario	Rickie Weeks
79	Carl Crawford	Mike Napoli	Anthony Rizzo	Mark Teixeira
80	Derek Jeter	Salvador Perez	Will Middlebrooks	Brandon Phillips
81	Eric Hosmer	Justin Upton	Hanley Ramirez	Carlos Gomez
82	Josh Willingham	Adrian Gonzalez	Mark Trumbo	Ben Revere
83	Hunter Pence	Shane Victorino	Ian Kinsler	Dan Uggla
84	Ike Davis	Jay Bruce	Mark Teixeira	Carl Crawford
85	Rickie Weeks	Anthony Rizzo	Shane Victorino	Ian Kinsler
86	Carlos Gomez	Ben Revere	Dan Uggla	Justin Upton
87	Chase Utley	Freddie Freeman	Ben Revere	Shane Victorino
88	Brian McCann	Nelson Cruz	Hunter Pence	Adrian Gonzalez
89	Dan Uggla	Hunter Pence	Jay Bruce	Jay Bruce
90	Mike Napoli	Mike Moustakas	Freddie Freeman	Freddie Freeman
91	Salvador Perez	Danny Espinosa	Adam LaRoche	Mike Moustakas
92	Adam LaRoche	Will Middlebrooks	Mike Moustakas	Nelson Cruz
93	Nick Markakis	Troy Tulowitzki	Carl Crawford	Hunter Pence
94	Mike Moustakas	Ike Davis	Carlos Gomez	Danny Espinosa
95	Danny Espinosa	Jacoby Ellsbury	Nelson Cruz	Jacoby Ellsbury
96	Nick Swisher	Brian McCann	Danny Espinosa	Ike Davis
97	Pedro Alvarez	Carl Crawford	Brian McCann	Brian McCann
98	Ben Revere	Eric Hosmer	Ryan Howard	Eric Hosmer
99	Will Middlebrooks	Victor Martinez	Ike Davis	Victor Martinez
100	Alejandro De Aza	Ryan Howard	Eric Hosmer	Ryan Howard

Now, I must admit that these projections aren't based on any system I would typically use.  I simply looked at the 2011 and 2012 rates and gave a bit more weight to the more recent performance.  As you can probably tell, the rankings came out quite different.  I'll let you look into the rankings to find quirks if you want to, but after breaking down the rankings, I thought, "Well, the point of this was to find out what the teams would look like if you put it on auto draft.  So that's what I did!  Let's say you have a 12 team league that only uses offense (fantasy baseball players, this will seem weird to you) and a team has the #1 overall pick both times.  With 100 players, Team 1 (boring team name, I know) picks at 1, 24, 25, 48, 49, 72, 73, 96, and 97.  Here are what the teams look like if the drafts went perfectly in order (in cases where a position is filled, I will move down to the best player at an unfilled position):

Yahoo Rankings

1- Mike Trout, OF
24- Jose Reyes, SS
25- Jason Heyward, OF
48- Pablo Sandoval, 3B
49- Aaron Hill, 2B (Elvis Andrus doesn't fit)
72- Nelson Cruz, OF
73- Paul Konerko, 1B (Jose Altuve doesn't fit)
96- Nick Swisher, UTIL
97- Pedro Alvarez, UTIL (all players 96-100 are 3B/OF/1B)

oWAR Rankings (using expected in 2013)

1- Mike Trout, OF
24- Giancarlo Stanton, OF
25- Adam Jones, OF
48- Ian Desmond, SS
49- Aaron Hill (Jason Heyward doesn't fit)
72- Billy Butler, 1B
73- Martin Prado, 3B
96- Danny Espinosa, 2B
97-Brian McCann, C

One thing that comes to mind in looking at how these teams panned out is that both systems seem to agree that taking outfielders is important.  After all, other than third base, the OF position had a highest average expected oWAR/162 games in 2013 at 4.09.  Where the oWAR rankings fail is in accounting for the actual number of players available at each position. This is why the Yahoo team had no available key position players left in the later rounds and had to settle for OF/1B types.  Yahoo understands that additional value is given to players based on how rare quality players are to find at those positions (something WAR does not account for, as it only cares about how hard the position is to play overall).  To show what I'm saying, here's a breakdown of top 100 position players by position:

Number of Players	Position
11	C
15	1B
12	2B
8	SS
14	3B
38	OF

As you can see, there is a plethora of outfield talent available in the top 100. Even though I listed players by primary positions instead of by Yahoo! available positions, there are more outfielders than actual available outfield spots (36 total OF spots in a 12 team league).  Now, this listing technicality throws the other numbers off just a little bit as well (Ben Zobrist and Martin Prado would be available to play SS, etc) but I think the idea is clear: other positions are too thin for OF to be taken with the first three picks.  Therefore, Yahoo! bumps up positions like SS/2B/C in their overall rankings.  They understand your chances of finding value late at OF are better than doing so at these other positions.

Now, I don't want to imply that Yahoo! is right at all, because it's quite possible that their philosophy is wrong.  Before I jump to conclusions, let's check some things out.  First, it's important to know what kind of expected value each position brings.  For that, here's a chart showing average expected oWAR by position:

Row Labels	Average of Exp oWAR 2013/162
1B	3.10
2B	3.68
3B	4.24
C	3.94
DH	4.00
OF	4.09
SS	4.05
Grand Total	3.89

When you look at this, the numbers suggest that certain positions have a better "average" top 100 player.  First baseman are hurt in Yahoo! rankings by the same thing they are hurt by in oWAR: the typical first baseman provides more offense relative to other positions.  This chart suggests that, relative to position, the other positions are pretty balanced.  Here's how the standard deviation breaks down:

Row Labels	StdDev of Exp oWAR 2013/162
1B	1.53
2B	1.36
3B	1.52
C	1.31
OF	1.62
SS	0.82
Grand Total	1.48

This chart reveals a few things when paired with the first chart.  Number one: shortstops are both valuable and pretty similar in the top 100.  However, when you add Zobrist and Prado, there are only ten of them.  This suggests taking a shortstop should be a priority.  Number two: there's quite a bit of difference between outfielders, first basemen, and third basemen. This suggests that the top-line talent is a lot better than the lesser talent.  Both Yahoo! and oWAR agree that this is the case, with oWAR having eight outfielders in the top 20 players and Yahoo! having nine.  Knowing this, perhaps the oWAR team was right in drafting three OF early...or not.  While it is nice to know that OF is top-heavy in terms of ability, it also has to be made known that "lesser tier" outfielders are still being ranked in the top 100 while lesser tier players at other positions do not appear.  The moral of the story after looking at average talent and distribution?  It's all about the players available. There are fewer 2B/SS/C available that will contribute value than there are OF.

Step Three: Conclusions

In short, ranking players based on oWAR is probably a really bad idea.  Position-wise, both ranking systems have 19 players who are primarily outfielders in the top 50, both have a similar number of shortstops, third basemen, etc.  The problem isn't the distribution of players within the rankings.  Both formats agree on that concept.  Where things get dicey is where those players get ranked.  Below is a simple list of some classic examples where you would be torched by using oWAR to autodraft (first number is Yahoo! ranking, second number is oWAR ranking):

Robinson Cano: 4, 8
Albert Pujols: 6, 36
Carlos Gonzalez: 9, 63
Giancarlo Stanton: 11, 24
Troy Tulowitzki: 12, 26
Jose Bautista: 13, 4 (overdraft city)
Buster Posey: 14, 7
David Wright: 18, 28

I could keep going on and on with differences, but in the end there just isn't enough in common between what oWAR wants to accomplish and what Yahoo! wants to accomplish.  While I don't recommend auto drafting either way, I would say it's probably better overall to let Yahoo! do the work.  Things like lineup context and ballpark are important in fantasy baseball, because we're talking about producing runs and RBI. oWAR is really good at what it does, but it should stay out of fantasy baseball.