2012 Record: 90-72
Pythag Record: 95-67
Games out of First: 5.0
Top Performers by WAR
1. Ben Zobrist, 5.5
2. David Price, 5.1
3. James Shields, 4.3
4. Desmond Jennings, 3.0
5. B.J. Upton, 2.6
2012 Recap
By all accounts, the Rays' performance on the field didn't match the results in the win column. They were 8th in wRC+, 11th in team UZR, 13th in BsR, and 1st in team ERA and xFIP. Going through the results for the team, it's really hard to pinpoint exactly how they only won 90 games. Ultimately, it could just come down to dumb luck. As a team on offense, they were pretty fast and led the league in BB%. They also were 10th in the majors in homers. Usually in this scenario I would point to the possibility that they didn't have enough hits and actually walked too much of the time, and that may actually be the case here. They were on base a lot and hit plenty of homers, but they had a really low team BABIP and were bottom four in batting average. It's easier to drive runs in when you fill your on-base percentage with hits instead of walks Perhaps the Rays just got a bit unlucky offensively? Your guess is as good as mine.
2013 Off Season
Unfortunately not everything in baseball is fair. Because of this fact, the Rays constantly have to trade away/let walk the hoard of talent they are able to draft and develop. This was the case again this off season. The team had to let B.J. Upton walk in free agency (they may have had no desire to re-sign him even if they had the money) and traded SP James Shields. The good news for Rays fans is that the Shields trade could wind up being one of those moves that keeps them in the postseason chase for the time being. With two years left on his contract ($21 million), the club traded Shields to Kansas City along with P Wade Davis. In return, the team received top prospects Wil Myers and Jake Ordorizzi along with other pieces. It was a move that solidified a common belief that Andrew Friedman and his staff are among the best in the business at what they do. Here's a summary of the off season:
Additions:
OF Wil Myers
SP Jake Ordorizzi
SS Yunel Escobar
1B James Loney
2B Kelly Johnson
Subtractions:
SP James Shields
CF B.J. Upton
SS Elliot Johnson
P Wade Davis
1B Carlos Pena
2013 Outlook
I know that the Rays have dealt with losing a lot of talent in the past, but I do not believe that they have dealt with this kind of loss before. If you buy into fangraphs WAR, the team has to replace almost 10 wins of value between Shields, Upton, Pena, Johnson, and Davis. James Loney *should* be able to bounce back from his negative WAR season last year, so I think the difference between he and Pena will be small if anything. With Upton, replacing the value comes down to Demsond Jennings. He is a superior defender to Upton, he's one of the best base runners in the game, and his offensive value should go up quite a bit moving from LF to CF (even if it doesn't improve). He produced 3.3 wins last year in left field, and I think he'll be able to add on a couple of wins to that value in replacing Upton. If Matt Joyce is competent in left field, the Rays shouldn't miss a beat from losing Upton, either. Given how easy these two replacements were, it may be even easier for the club to replace Big Game James and Wade Davis (5.4 fWAR total). Before you look at your computer and think "wow, what an idiot" let me talk for a second. To start, Matt Moore is really talented. I have him pegged as a breakout candidate who can easily produce 4 wins as a pitcher (so we've made up 2 wins). Then, it should be considered that Alex Cobb should see a whole season of starting (200 IP would mean his pace last year was good for 3.24 wins). That would be a one-win improvement (total of 3 made up). Alas we arrive at the key: Chris Archer. If Archer makes the starting rotation, I think he can be a 2.5-3.0 WAR pitcher (so we're at 5.5-6.0 wins). By restructuring their rotation and acquiring key prospects, the Rays may have actually improved their rotation. Now, after doing all of that roster shuffling, here are some keys:
1. Fernando Rodney- Rodney produced 3.7 RA/9 wins as a reliever last year. By comparison, Craig Kimbrel produced 3.2. Despite the fact that using peripherals is better for projection and may give you a clearer picture of what a pitcher is truly capable of, you can't ignore this number when talking about where the Rays will be. If Rodney stumbles down to, say, Jason Motte level (still elite), that's an RA/9 value of 1.4. That's a couple wins of value that are going to need to be replaced, which creates more strain on the young starters already trying to take on the challenge of replacing James Shields.
2. Evan Longoria- He needs to be healthy in the worst way. Losing the additional 4+ wins of value he typically provides in a season over the 2.4 fWAR he provided last year was a huge blow. He is easily the team's best bat from both a bat-production and value standpoint.
3. David Price- The 2012 AL Cy Young winner needs to repeat or all of that replacement will be for naught.
Potential Breakout Player
Matt Moore, SP
He's got the easiest throwing motion I've ever seen. He reaches back, looks like he's playing catch with his dad in the back yard, and the ball jumps out at 98 MPH. Throw in a devastating breaking ball and a developing changeup and it's easy to see why Moore shot up to elite prospect status. Last year was rough in terms of control, but things got a lot better for him in the 2nd half. He cut his BB rate down by a full walk per nine innings and actually upped his strikeout rate while doing so. This led to an elite performance from Moore down the stretch, and I believe that will carry into this year.
Potential Bust Player
I don't believe the Rays have any real legitimate bust candidates. Anyone that may taper off a bit didn't produce enough wins to really "bust" in the truest sense of the term.
Starting Nine and Starting Rotation
C- Jose Molina
1B- James Loney
2B- Kelly Johnson
SS- Yunel Escobar
3B- Evan Longoria
LF- Matt Joyce
CF- Desmond Jennings
RF- Ben Zobrist
SP- David Price
SP- Jeremy Hellickson
SP- Matt Moore
SP- Alex Cobb
SP- Chris Archer/Jeff Niemann
Expectations
Record: 93-69
Team MVP: Evan Longoria: 6.8 WAR
Lasting Thought
If I were going to give any advice to a person on how exactly they would learn about how to manage a roster/organization, I would tell them to study what the Rays have done under Andrew Friedman and his staff. For a team to lose James Shields and B.J. Upton and not miss a beat is something out of a story book. It truly is miraculous that they just continue to be great. When Ben Zobrist and David Price are ready to leave, they'll just replace them with Wil Myers, Jake Ordorizzi, and Chris Archer. There is a constant river of talent flowing through Tampa Bay right now, and it's a shame that they don't have the resources to keep some of the elite talent and continue to build underneath it. When that happens, teams like the Yankees better be ready.
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