2012 Record: 93-69
Pythag Record: 91-71
Games Out of First: 1.0
Top Performers by WAR
1. Adrian Beltre, 6.7
2. Yu Darvish, 5.1
3. Matt Harrison, 3.8
4. Elvis Andrus, 3.5
5. Josh Hamilton, 3.4
2012 Recap
As usual, the Rangers were an offensive force in 2012. Their 105 wRC+ was good for a tie for fourth in MLB. Adrian Beltre, Josh Hamilton, and David Murphy all had pretty big offensive seasons. Meanwhile, the team was fairly modest in the field and on the bases (they finished middle of the road in both team UZR and BsR). Heck, the Rangers were even able to pitch as they finished 11th in team xFIP and tied for 17th in team ERA (remember, Arlington hates pitching). Looking at the team, it's really hard to figure out why exactly they surrendered the division to Oakland. For me the team lost the division in July when they went 9-14 in the month, scoring only 81 runs (only 3.52 runs per game). The scoring troubles righted themselves for the next couple of months, but were back in the fateful meeting in Oakland in October. The team scored 9 runs over three games (just 4 in the first two combined) and got swept. They were 2-5 against Oakland down the stretch, and this is what lost them the division.
Off Season Recap
When you lay out what the reported goals of the off season were for Texas, this one has to go down as a disappointment. The team lost its star player to a division rival (Hamilton to the Angels), lost the bidding for Justin Upton, and lost the bidding for SP Zack Greinke. However, the team really didn't get any worse (I'll get into those details later). Here's a summary of the off season:
Additions
C A.J. Pierzynski
DH Lance Berkman
Subtractions
SP Ryan Dempster
OF Josh Hamilton
UTIL Michael Young
SP Scott Feldman
2013 Outlook
There are some interesting things going on here. First, let's look at RA/9 wins. Ryan Dempster gave the team only 0.3 wins in the 2nd half, so his loss is pretty much meaningless (if not a positive). Now, let's look at Michael Young. He was worth -2.4 wins on b-ref and -1.4 on fangraphs. Removing him from the every day lineup is an automatic improvement for the ballclub. With Hamilton, he's a pretty big loss. He was a 4-win player and a key bat in the middle of the lineup. Replacing him falls on the shoulders of Craig Gentry and Leonys Martin. The biggest concern going into the season for the Rangers is how their rotation is going to perform. Yu Darvish needs to see end results that match his peripherals and the performance of Alexi Ogando and Martin Perez in the four and five spots will be huge. This team should be about as good as it was last year among its position players. Berkman is a big potential upgrade over Young at DH and the team should be better defensively. Here are some keys:
1. Rotation- The whole unit is going to have to improve from last year. The way they pitched down the stretch won't get it done. Now, with Dempster's weak 2nd half performance gone (along with Scott Feldman's consistently poor performance), the rotation should be better immediately.If they can have Darvish and Holland take that next step forward, their rotation should be pretty good.
2. Lance Berkman- Most of the responsibility for replacing Josh Hamilton's bat rests squarely on his shoulders. He's not being asked to field, so I'm hopeful he is able to stay healthy. If he is, then his bat in Arlington should take care of itself.
Potential Breakout Player
Yu Darvish, SP
Let me preface this by saying I realize Darvish had a great year in his peripherals. However, this selection comes out of the fact that I think Darvish will step up and produce ace-like end results. Much like with Matt Moore, control issues fixed themselves in the 2nd half, and Darvish kept his K/9 rate above 10 the entire season. He's really talented, and I think he becomes an ace this year.
Potential Bust Player
Adrian Beltre, 3B
At some point father time needs to visit Adrian Beltre. To this point, he's playing the best baseball of his career. While I don't think he will bust, it wouldn't shock me if he has some struggles with injuries during the season that lead to lesser end results.
Starting Nine and Starting Rotation
C- A.J. Pierzynski
1B- Mitch Moreland
2B- Ian Kinsler
SS- Elvis Andrus
3B- Adrian Beltre
LF- David Murphy
CF- Leonys Martin
RF- Nelson Cruz
DH- Lance Berkman
***An interesting thing to note here is that Jurickson Profar should see some playing time this year. What will be interesting is seeing how exactly the Rangers work him in. I imagine that Ian Kinsler will get some looks in either left field or at first base and that Profar will man second base in those games. The same thing goes for Mike Olt, who is blocked by Adrian Beltre***
SP- Yu Darvish
SP- Matt Harrison
SP- Derek Holland
SP- Alexi Ogando
SP- Martin Perez
***Another thing to note here is that Neftali Feliz is due back from TJS recovery late in the season. Colby Lewis will also begin the season on the DL, as will reliever Joakim Soria. If Perez and Ogando get off to a good start to the season, it will create a few interesting decisions for the Rangers***
Expectations
Record: 89-73
Team MVP: Yu Darvish, 6.1 WAR
Lasting Thought
I think people are just passing on the Rangers this year, and that's wrong. This is still a really good ball club with a legitimate shot to beat the Angels for the West. They will have a lot of rotation depth down the stretch and have top prospects ready to step in should anybody get hurt. No team should be more confident in its ability to constantly put good players on the field than Texas. Even if they have a major season-ending injury to one of their stars, they have the necessary pieces to fill in and do damage control. I think people should expect the Rangers to compete with the West and be surprised if they aren't there at the end.
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