2012 Record: 94-68
Pythag Record: 92-70
Games Out of First: AL West Champions
Top Performers by WAR
1. Josh Reddick, 4.5
2. Jarrod Parker, 3.7
3. Yoenis Cespedes, 3.4
4. Coco Crisp, 2.7
5. Tom Milone, 2.7
2012 Recap
As someone who is really interested in roster construction theory, the A's are fascinating to analyze. Billy Beane and Bob Melvin would be my picks for both Executive and Manager of the Year last year in the American League. For those that are more casual fans, there is a concept in baseball called a "platoon" where one player plays a position in certain situations and another plays the position in different situations. The A's did a lot of this last year. Rather than break down all of them, I'll talk about one in particular: first base. Wowzers did the A's do this right here, with Chris Carter getting the bulk of the time against lefties (with an OPS+ of 137) and Brandon Moss getting most of the time against righties (160 OPS+). What is great about platoons is that they take players who may not cut it as regulars (I think Carter can, but Moss isn't the best against lefties) and mix&match their skills to basically create one awesome player at a position. The A's basically had one first baseman who was fantastic against both righties and lefties by playing two players instead of handing the job to one guy. The team used this strategy across multiple positions. What made the A's great and incredibly fun to watch (outside of their AMAZING FANS) was how deep and selfless the team was. For platoons to work, you can't have big egos. Guys have to be willing to give up every day jobs for the benefit of the ball club. In professional sports, this is unfortunately impossible in most cases. This is why Beane and Melvin deserve awards. They acquired and managed egos perfectly. As a team, they finished 10th in wRC+, 4th in team UZR, 2nd in BsR, and 24th in xFIP (you can have "meh" peripherals when you play incredible defense). Why were they a surprise? They were a surprise because, individually, they weren't a phenomenal team. However, the way they played was phenomenal, and that is why they won.
Off Season Recap
My initial thought on the A's off season (without looking into it deeply) was that I thought it was disappointing. After talking to the incredibly informed A's fan I know, I decided to look into it. My mind has been changed. The A's had a great off season. The first big move they had was to ship Cliff Pennington and prospect Yordy Cabrera to Arizona for OF Chris Young. In another trade, they flipped starter A.J. Cole to Washington and received C John Jaso from Seattle (Seattle got Michael Morse). The only thing I didn't like about Oakland's off season was when they flipped Chris Carter, Brad Peacock, and Max Stassi for oft-injured utility man Jed Lowrie and reliever Fernando Rodriguez. It was a busy off season for the A's, and here's a summary:
Additions:
OF Chris Young
C John Jaso
SS Hiroyuki Nakajima
RP Fernando Rodriguez
UTIL Jed Lowrie
Subtractions:
SP Brandon McCarthy
1B Chris Carter
SS Cliff Pennington
SS Yordy Cabrera
P A.J. Cole
P Brad Peacock
C Max Stassi
2013 Outlook
I have to admit that I don't know how to feel about the Athletics going into this season, but I think they will still be great. Having John Jaso every day as a catcher is a monumental upgrade (people forget how awful Kurt Suzuki was in Oakland last year) and adding Chris Young to the outfield (in a full season, he's a 4 WAR player) was huge. However, there are still a couple things I am concerned about. Those are parts of the keys:
1. Josh Reddick- Falling off massively in the second half of a season is not a good way to keep your job. I could be wrong, but with Yoenis Cespedes and Coco Crisp having clearly earned every day starting jobs it is likely that most of Chris Young's playing time will come at the expense of Josh Reddick. Reddick's on-base percentage consistently got worse throughout the season and his overall performance finally tanked when he put up a .509 OPS in September/October. Reddick still has plenty of pop, so there's reason to get him at bats, but I am not confident that he's going to be viewed as an every day starter the whole year (again, part of this is because Chris Young is so good).
2. Yoenis Cespedes- Took him in fantasy last year in the 14th round and it's still one of the better decisions I've ever made. However, if the A's want to repeat what they did last year, he needs to stay healthy and break out into the MVP candidate I think he can be. I've said it before and I'll say it again: 30 HR/ 100 RBI/ 100 Runs/ 30 SB/ .300 BA is not out of the question as he learns competition more and more.
3. Starting Rotation- Overall, the rotation needs to strike more guys out. While stranding runners and using your great defense is always good, I don't know that the defense on the team will be as good (Cliff Pennington may stink with a bad, but he's really good with the glove). Strikeouts help ensure that ERA's stay down. However, even more important than the strikeouts will be the performance of Brett Anderson. If he stays healthy and gets the ball on the ground consistently, he will have a pretty big year and the A's will be there at the end.
Potential Breakout Player
John Jaso, C
I was going to write about how I think Cespedes is going to be an MVP candidate this year, but I have to give Jaso some props. He might be the best game caller in the league, and the emergence of his bat last year was huge for his value. If he can keep his HR/FB rate up (which I think he can), then I believe he's a 4-WAR player.
Potential Bust Player
Josh Reddick, RF
I already talked about him a little bit, but the decline in Reddick's skills last year was obvious. He walked half as much in the 2nd half, struck out almost 2% more, and his ISO dropped 89 points. Overall he just wasn't as good. His HR/FB rate normalized and his wRC+ dropped 64 points from first half to second half. It was great watching him take off and do well at the beginning of the season, but Reddick's level of talent caught up with him in the 2nd half. He's a great guy I'm sure, but I probably wouldn't look to start him regularly if I was the A's (only because of Chris Young). He's still a defensive stud in right field, and he'll get plenty of looks at DH even if the club decides not to use him as the every day starter.
Starting Nine and Starting Rotation
C- John Jaso
1B- Brandon Moss/Daric Barton
2B- Scott Sizemore/Jemile Weeks
SS- Hiroyuki Nakahima
3B- Jed Lowrie/Josh Donaldson
LF- Yoenis Cespedes
CF- Coco Crisp/Chris Young
RF- Chris Young/Josh Reddick
DH- Seth Smith/Chris Young
SP- Brett Anderson
SP- Jarrod Parker
SP- Tom Milone
SP- A.J. Griffin
SP- Dan Straily*
*Bartolo Colon gets this spot when he comes back
Expectations
Record: 88-74
Team MVP: Yoenis Cespedes, 5.9 WAR
Lasting Thought
I think the Angels and Rangers are still better than the A's are, but I don't think the gap is that huge. I think this is a good team playing in a really, really good division. I still like the A's though, and I hope and pray that they can finally break out of their situation and get to San Jose. Let me throw in something quickly:
If the Angels have any of their key star players miss any time, then Oakland probably becomes the immediate favorite to take the division.
2012 Record: 94-68
Pythag Record: 92-70
Games Out of First: 4.0
Top Performers by WAR
1. Michael Bourn, 6.0
2. Jason Heyward, 5.5
3. Martin Prado, 5.4
4. Kris Medlen, 3.9
5. Craig Kimbrel, 3.6 (yeah seriously, he's that good)
2012 Recap
The Braves have made a habit of being consistently good across the board. They typically have deep teams, field the ball well, and have a strong pitching staff. 2012 was the same old song and dance in Atlanta. While they were 24th in team wRC+, they were first by a huge margin in team UZR, sixth in team BsR, and 9th in team xFIP (1st in bullpen xFIP). They were really good at pitching, had a great ability to go catch the ball, and locked down leads. All of this teamed up to overcome the lack of offensive production (when people ask you the relative importance of offense vs. defense and starter performance vs. bullpen performance, show them the 2012 Atlanta Braves). From an individual standpoint, it's hard to ignore the accomplishments of the five guys listed above. Medlen was a starter for half the year, Kimbrel has been established as the best reliever in baseball, and Jason Heyward is probably a top 5 most valuable asset in the game. What often gets ignored, however, is just how important Michael Bourn and Martin Prado actually were. Those two combined with Heyward to form what was the best defensive outfield in baseball. As a unit, they were strong on the bases and caught everything sent to them. With as good as the rest of the team was, the 2012 Braves were great because of their outfield.
Off Season Recap
Going into this write up, I was expecting to talk about how great the Braves' off season was. However, with the facts I just pointed out about the outfield, I don't know that I can do that any more. The saying typically goes as "if it ain't broke, don't fix it." Well, the Braves took the best part of their team, broke it down, and changed it. In center field, they are undoubtedly going to be worse. B.J. Upton is a downgrade from Michael Bourn, yet the Braves gave Upton more money than the Indians wound up giving Bourn. The team also traded Martin Prado and Randall Delgado to Arizona for Justin Upton. While I think Justin has the upside to be one of the best players in baseball, how important was it to get that one extra win over Prado when it's established what Prado can do as an outfielder? The team also went and traded SP Tommy Hanson to the Angels for reliever Jordan Walden. Here's a summary:
Additions:
LF Justin Upton
CF B.J. Upton
RP Jordan Walden
3B Chris Johnson
Subtractions:
CF Michael Bourn
LF Martin Prado
3B Chipper Jones (retirement)
SP Tommy Hanson
2013 Outlook
Much like the A's, I'm torn on what I think of the Braves. I really like the fact that they brought in Justin Upton, because I believe he can be an elite player in this league. Meanwhile, I really think trading in Bourn for B.J. was a mistake. Both players rely on their speed for a big chunk of their value, and I think Bourn is the better player to have going forward. Then comes the issue of their rotation, which really doesn't look all that great on paper. Before I rant on too much about the negatives, let's jump into the keys:
1. Kris Medlen- Nobody is more important to what the Braves are trying to do than Medlen. The team really doesn't have an ace on the staff, so he needs to have an ace-like performance for the Braves to be a 90+ win team. His breakout last year really helped the team in the 2nd half, and the absence of Brandon Beachy is going to make his first half performance this year incredibly important.
2. Justin Upon- The Braves traded for Upton because of his ridiculous upside. For whatever reason, the D-Backs didn't think he was enough of a leader to build a team around. That isn't a problem in Atlanta where there are enough good players and veterans where he won't be asked to lead. All he's being asked to do is be Justin Upton, which involves being incredibly good at the sport of baseball.
3. Freddie Freeman- I have written about Freeman and how it's time for him to break out, and things are no different going into this post. I don't believe the Braves can afford to be as bad offensively as they were last year. Their defense got noticeably worse and their skills on the bases arguably got worse as well. This means the bats need to step up.
4. Brian McCann- I have to believe that the Braves made the moves they did with the belief that McCann would be healthy and would step up. After having a pretty solid run of being one of the best catchers in baseball, McCann was terrible in 2012. His lingering injuries never allowed him to get into a stride offensively and he simply had a bad year. If he bounces back, I think the stuff I mentioned about the team's other moves will be irrelevant.
Potential Breakout Player
Andrelton Simmons, SS
Simmons is never going to amaze you with his bat, but this kid is a wizard with the glove. Outside of Jose Iglesias and Brendan Ryan, there might not be a better defensive shortstop in the game (I'm a bit biased towards Simmons though as I was amazed by his glove in his shot time last year). If he keeps up that defensive work and establishes a modest bat, he'll quickly shoot up and be in the ranks of the better shortstops in the league.
Potential Bust Player
Justin Upton, LF
I know a lot of people will find this weird seeing as I have him listed as a breakout candidate in another post, but Upton fits here. While I firmly believe his issues last year were all related to his thumb, there's no way to know whether that issue will linger or not. I think he's going to be one of the best players in the game, but he's moving into a harder park to hit in and expectations are very high. In no way do I think he will bust, but it has to be acknowledged that the possibility is there.
Starting Eight and Starting Rotation
C- Brian McCann
1B- Freddie Freeman
2B- Dan Uggla (he's underrated)
SS- Andrelton Simmons
3B- Juan Francisco/Chris Johnson
LF- Justin Upton
CF- B.J. Upton
RF- Jason Heyward
SP- Tim Hudson
SP- Kris Medlen
SP- Mike Minor
SP- Paul Maholm
SP- Julio Teheran***
***Have to imagine this spot goes back to Beachy the second he is ready unless Teheran actually shows he can pitch in MLB***
Expectations:
Team Record: 85-77
Team MVP: Jason Heyward, 6.1 WAR
Lasting Thought
I talked myself out of thinking the Braves were an elite team with this post. I think the team has a great bullpen and good offensive potential (keyword: potential), but the rotation and defense could be an issue. They let two of their most valuable players go and got rid of a lot of their rotation depth when they moved Hanson and Delgado in the same off season. With that lack of depth, I think the team is really going to suffer if they have anyone in the rotation suffer an injury. While I love the potential of this team, the rest of the NL has gotten better. The Braves need to prove to me that they are an elite team, because right now I don't see it.
2012 Record: 95-67
Pythag Record: 95-67
Games Out of First: AL East Champions
Top Performers by WAR
1. Robinson Cano, 8.2
2. CC Sabathia, 4.8
3. Hiroki Kuroda, 3.9
4. Mark Teixeira, 3.6
5. Nick Swisher, 3.5
2012 Recap
It didn't show much in the regular season, but the Yankees are a quickly aging ball club. Even Robinson Cano, who had an elite season last year, is already 30 years old. However, as I mentioned, this didn't show much in the regular season. The team still finished 1st in wRC+ and 6th in team xFIP. While their defense and base running left something to be desired, the easiest ways to produce value are still to be really good as an offense and really good as a pitching staff. In short: you don't *have* to do the little things well when you already do the big things really well. The club was able to strike out plenty of guys, limit walks, and hit home runs. Any time you walk 9% of the time as a team and hit for power, you are going to produce quite a few runs. However, things got bad for the Yankees towards the end of the season. Alex Rodriguez' hip injury kept him out of the lineup in key moments in the post season and Derek Jeter's ankle finally gave out in the ALDS against Detroit. The age finally got to the Yankees, and it was their undoing at the end.
Off Season Recap
The Yankees seem to be rather serious about getting under the luxury cap before 2014. The club made zero big moves this off season and let RP Rafael Soriano and RF Nick Swisher walk in free agency (neither got a huge contract). However, the Yankee off season was dominated by negative headlines surrounding Alex Rodriguez. After having surgery, A-Rod was linked to yet another PED investigation in the Miami Clinic scandal. The news was so damaging that the Yankees (intelligently) looked into ways to void his contract. While there was no chance of this happening, the act shows just how bad the A-Rod situation is with New York. Here's a recap of the team's off season:
Additions (dating back to last season):
CF Brett Gardner (I consider him an addition because of how much time he missed last year)
3B Kevin Youkilis
DH Travis Hafner
RF Ichiro Suzuki
Subtractions:
RF Nick Swisher
RP Rafael Soriano
C Russell Martin
UTIL Raul Ibanez
OF Andruw Jones
2013 Outlook
Remember what I said about not buying into the Braves as an elite team? That's how I feel about the Yankees this year. They have zero rotational depth, will be missing a ton of power on offense (Swisher's gone, Andruw Jones is gone, Granderson is out a month, and A-Rod is going to miss a ton of the season), and they are an old squad that is clearly prone to injury (A-Rod, Jeter, Hafner, Gardner, etc have missed significant time due to injuries in the last 18 calendar months). Heck, even CC Sabathia missed five starts last year with arm issues. What this means is that the Yankees need to change their identity and center their focus around defense. With Gardner back in the outfield and Ichiro starting every day, that is a possibility. However, replacing the value lost from this off season is going to be almost impossible. Here are the keys:
1. Cano & Sabathia- With as little depth as there is to this team, both of these guys need to stay healthy and have huge years. If they don't, the Yankees could arguably looking at a season where they approach .500 (or even worse).
2. Bullpen- The bullpen unit HAS to step up and be huge. If you recall in my write up about the Orioles, when you don't score a ton (which I don't think the Yankees will) and don't prevent runs well as a rotation (I don't think the Yankees will do that either) then you have to lock down every lead you can. Fortunately, the club gets back Mariano Rivera this year. He and David Robertson pair to make one of the best 1-2 punches at the back end of a bullpen in the league. However, the bullpen doesn't have a ton of depth. They need that depth to be strong if they want to win.
3. Curtis Granderson- He's going to have to be huge when he comes back from his broken forearm. There's just not anything more to it. The offense doesn't have a lot of fire power anymore, and they will probably already be missing 8 or so of his home runs.
Potential Breakout Player
Everyone that will be involved with this team is an established veteran whose name is already known. No real breakout candidates here.
Potential Bust Player
Hiroki Kuroda, SP
I feel as if Kuroda got a bit lucky with the offenses in the AL East being worse than expected. This year, the Blue Jays, Rays, and Red Sox all figure to be pretty darn solid on offense. His peripherals got worse in 2012 compared to 2011, and I think that trend is going to continue. If he keeps his ground ball rate incredibly high, I think he will be fine. However, if he doesn't, his ERA will inflate quite a bit.
Starting Nine and Starting Rotation
C- Chris Stewart/Francisco Cervelli
1B- Mark Teixeira
2B- Robinson Cano
SS- Derek Jeter
3B- Kevin Youkilis/Alex Rodriguez
LF- Curtis Granderson
CF- Brett Gardner
RF- Ichiro Suzuki
DH- Travis Hafner
SP- CC Sabathia
SP- Hiroki Kuroda
SP- Andy Pettitte*
SP- Phil Hughes*
SP- Ivan Nova*
* At some point, Michael Pineda will be ready to go and will get a shot in the rotation.
Expectations:
Record: 83-79
Team MVP: Robinson Cano, 6.3 WAR
Lasting Thought
The times they are a changin'. The Yankees are getting old and are still attached to a lot of money. As a result of wanting to get under the luxury cap (which they are apparently serious about), they are going to have to deal with a transition period. They reportedly made a lucrative offer to Robinson Cano, but there's no way Cano doesn't test free agency given the fact that so many teams have money to burn and needs at second base. If he walks, the Yankees are in a serious bind and will need to consider every option to rebuild and start with a clean slate. Obviously they still have the resources to be amazing year in and year out, but it appears they played the last few years pretty poorly (remember, Granderson is also a free agent this year and there's no way he isn't walking as well).
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