So, I lied a little when I said I’d look at the NL East first. I decided instead to take one team at a time from each division. Next, we’ll jump to the NL Central and look at the Chicago Cubs, and after that will be the Colorado Rockies.
The Blue-Chippers: Well, in name only. I’m not a particularly big fan of either Brett Jackson or Josh Vitters, but they are the obvious names, and both players’ exploits are well-documented. Jackson has been the subject of debate within prospect circles since being drafted, and at this point the naysayers look to have come out on top. He’s got good (not great) tools across the board, more than playable in center field, but his biggest caveat, strikeout issues, really caught up to him last season in both the minors and the majors. His swing has often drawn criticism from scouts, prompting a reported change over the offseason. Time will tell if Jackson’s re-worked swing will be more effective, but at 24 going on 25 this season, that clock is ticking. We should have a very clear picture of what Brett Jackson is by the end of the season.
Like Jackson, Vitters had been a sort of lightning rod of debate for years, until his naysayers appeared to be right as his overaggressive approach to hitting seemed to portend his downfall. That is, until he started hitting again last season in the PCL, with improved defense at third to boot. He got an extended trial in Chicago, although his struggles with his approach resurfaced and were compounded by inconsistent playing time. Ironically, ahead of Vitters on the depth chart is another failed superstar third base prospect looking to resurrect value in Ian Stewart. Another opportunity might not be far away, but Vitters turns 24 during the season, and, similarly to Jackson, needs to start putting it together.
The Squinters: Arodys Vizcaino is a better prospect than either Vitters or Jackson but, due to injury, it’s tougher to project him for success in 2013. It’s telling, though, that despite undergoing Tommy John Surgery last March, he still managed to find himself on Baseball America’s top 100 list, slotting at #83. He’s nearing the end of his rehab and could find himself in the majors by May or June, but there’s enough uncertainty surrounding pitchers immediately following TJS that it’s better to proceed with caution. (A’s fan aside: Unless you’re Brett Anderson)
Nick Struck has garnered a lot of helium, especially in Cubs circles, following a breakout 2012 in Double-A at age 22. It came a little bit out of nowhere; Struck had never posted particularly impressive numbers before then. Despite that, the Cubs continued to push him up the ladder and he rewarded them with a very good year. He’s a classic “average stuff, but mixes and locates well” kind of guy – like Collin McHugh (although younger), exactly the kind of pitcher who sneaks up on everyone each year. I have him as a squinter because he failed to conquer Triple- A already in 2011, and will have to prove himself there in 2013 to move up the depth chart for Chicago.
The Sleepers: Another pitcher working his way back from elbow surgery is right-hander Hector Rondon. Once a hot prospect with the Indians, Rondon has seen his stock plummet due to injury but was selected by the Cubs in this offseason’s Rule 5 Draft. That sets him apart from Vizcaino – if the Cubs intend to keep him, and I would think they do, he has to stick on the 25-man all year, giving him a clearer path to playing time. If he does indeed stick, Rondon will start out in the bullpen as a long man. But if he performs well, coupled with a few injuries, he could find himself back in the rotation. Rondon was a favorite of mine pre-injury, and I’m pulling for him to come all the way back and have success.
Logan Watkins is already pegged as a future potential utility man by most, and while that may be the role he eventually settles into, he’s got a good enough bat to start for teams in stretches. He moved off shortstop and his best spot is his current position, second base, but he can play both in a reserve role, as well as the outfield. Watkins doesn’t have great tools, but he has good enough ones, and is a good athlete. He’s got a solid feel for hitting, a good idea of the strike zone, and above average speed. He reminds me a bit of recent Cub Reed Johnson, as they have similar builds -- both are 5’10’ with Johnson listed at 180 lbs, Watkins at 170 -- as well as similar skillsets. Johnson hit .284/.340/.411 over a lengthy career that included a handful of very good offensive years. It’s exactly the kind of career I think Watkins can achieve. He’ll begin 2013 in
Triple-A, but due to his versatility he’s one quick phone call away from the show.
Other potential contributors: LHP Brooks Raley, RHP Trey McNutt, SS/3B Junior Lake
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