2012 Record: 69-93
Pythag Record: 74-88
Top Performers by WAR
1. Dustin Pedroia, 4.7
2. Jon Lester, 3.3
3. David Ortiz, 2.9
4. Adrian Gonzalez, 2.5
5. Felix Doubront, 2.1
2012 Recap
The first season in the Ben Cherington regime certainly did not go well for the Red Sox. Their season can be defined by one key signing: Bobby Valentine. In the media, the report was that this was a signing that was over the head of Ben Cherington and made by team president Larry Lucchino. Well the decision certainly was not a good one. Valentine was constantly in the news for the wrong reasons, he lost his club early in the season, and he was rightfully fired at season's end. Under Valentine, some Red Sox players seemed to regress. Daniel Bard completely fell apart after trying to move to the rotation, Jon Lester had the worst year of his career, and the offense wasn't as strong as it was expected to be. While certainly not the biggest reason for their struggles, injuries certainly didn't help the Red Sox last year. Jacoby Ellsbury, David Ortiz, and others missed significant chunks of playing time. However, the Sox' season ultimately comes down to this: they played as an average team in a really good division (as you can see, they played 5 games under their Pythag record). They fielded the ball well, were ok on the bases, didn't struggle terribly with the bats, but had trouble as a pitching staff due to the performance of the starting rotation.
Off Season Recap
As with other bad teams, the change for the Red Sox came largely in-season. The front office decided to make its first key move by unloading the contracts of Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, and Adrian Gonzalez on the Los Angeles Dodgers. Prior to this move, the club parted ways with popular third baseman Kevin Youkilis in order to make room for prospect Will Middlebrooks. These moves helped the Sox unload large amounts of payroll while creating more roster flexibility. The change continued in the off season as the club kicked Valentine to the curb and traded for former pitching coach John Farrell to serve as the team's manager. Farrell serves as a key move because he has worked personally with Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, and other Red Sox pitchers that will look to rebound in 2013.
Additions:
P Ryan Dempster
C/1B Mike Napoli
RP Craig Breslow
SS Stephen Drew
RP Joel Hanrahan
OF Shane Victorino
OF Jonny Gomes
C David Ross
Subtractions (dating back to mid-season):
SP Josh Beckett
LF Carl Crawford
1B Adrian Gonzalez
1B James Loney
3B Kevin Youkilis
OF Cody Ross
2013 Outlook
As you can see, the theme with this Red Sox team is turnover. They have completely revamped the roster and will look to compete in 2013. The 2013 Red Sox are going to be all about rebounding from previous failures and injuries. A short list of individuals who look to go from poor/injured to useful/healthy includes: Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Andrew Bailey, Daniel Bard, Mike Napoli, Stephen Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, David Ortiz, Shane Victorino, and John Lackey. To sum it up quickly: the 2013 Red Sox have something to prove. As far as talent goes, they have the potential for a very strong bullpen, a passable starting rotation, a solid offense, and good team defense. If they can stay healthy and bounce back (asking a lot from an older team) they can make a run at the playoffs. If they want to do that, here are the keys:
1. Jon Lester- I don't want to say everything rests on Lester's shoulders, but a lot of the weight here does. Without its ace, a pitching staff can go from solid to bad in quick fashion. Lester needs to get back to the basics, find his mechanics, and get back to striking guys out. With Farrell back at manager, I am confident that Lester has the coaching and the tools to rebound and return to ace form in 2013.
2. Jacoby Ellsbury- Ellsbury needs to prove that his career isn't going to be simply summed up by one good season (2011). He needs to stay healthy and be more consistent with his bat. The team doesn't necessarily need Ellsbury to perform with the bat at an elite level for him to be effective. What the Red Sox need is a full season of his fantastic defense and base running. A healthy Ellsbury can rack up over a win of value on these two assets alone.
3. John Lackey- I honestly believe that a stable and healthy Lackey can be a key to the Red Sox' season. With so many questions in the rotation, having a veteran presence with no expectations come out of nowhere to contribute positive value is huge. While the expectations are probably for him to be the 5th starter behind Lester, Dempster, Doubront, and Buchholz, Lackey still has the ability to be an effective pitcher. Rotational depth goes a long way in the offense-heavy AL East, so if Lackey is healthy and contributing, chances are that the Red Sox are doing pretty well.
Potential Breakout Player
Will Middlebrooks, 3B
Last season, everyone got a bit of a taste of what made Middlebooks a top 100 prospect. He was given the starting job at third after the Youkilis trade and didn't disappoint. In a season of few bright spots, Middlebrooks showed strong power and produced well with his bat on his way to a 2 fWAR performance. While I think Middlebrooks has a good chance to break out, his splits as far as walks and strikeouts were concerning. He didn't show a strong contact ability and struggled to produce walks. These bring up just a bit of a red flag, but ultimately I think things will be fine.
Potential Bust Player
Ryan Dempster, SP
In 2012, Dempster started the season on fire with the Chicago Cubs. At the trade deadline, Dempster was shipped to Texas and got his first taste of American League baseball. Dempster was lit up while in Texas and struggled mightily with leaving pitches up in the strike zone. While he struck out more people than usual, he also left up more than his fair share of hanging breaking pitches. While I don't expect Dempster to be this bad, don't be surprised if he gets roughed up a bit by AL lineups.
2013 Starting Nine and Starting Rotation
C- Jarrod Saltalamacchia
1B- Mike Napoli
2B- Dustin Pedroia
SS- Stephen Drew
3B- Will Middlebrooks
LF- Jonny Gomes
CF- Jacoby Ellsbury
RF- Shane Victorino
DH- David Ortiz
SP- Jon Lester
SP- Clay Buchholz
SP- Ryan Dempster
SP- Felix Doubront
SP- John Lackey
Expected Finishes
Record: 78-84
Finish: 5th Place AL East
Most Valuable Player: Dustin Pedroia, 6.3 WAR
Lasting Thought
Ultimately this is an above-average team competing in a really good and somewhat impossible to predict division. I really think that the 2013 AL East is a complete crapshoot. While the Red Sox decided to go for a win-now mold instead of a rebuilding effort, I think they can be strong in the immediate future given that I still have some faith in their front office (though that faith certainly dwindled with how they transitioned into 2012). This probably isn't a playoff team, but I wouldn't be totally surprised if they were in the Wild Card race in August.
2012 Record: 69-93
Pythag Record: 68-94
Top Performers by WAR
1. Giancarlo Stanton, 5.4
2. Josh Johnson, 3.8
3. Jose Reyes, 2.8
4. Ricky Nolasco, 2.7
5. Anibal Sanchez, 2.3
5. Justin Ruggiano, 2.3
2012 Recap
I feel legitimately bad for Giancarlo Stanton (actually no I don't, considering he's making a half a million dollars and is barely older than I am). Jeffry Loria did it again. He brought everyone in, took advantage of a situation, and ripped everyone's hearts straight from their chests. Two words sum up what happened for the Marlins in 2012: crime and punishment. The Marlins committed millions of dollars to terrible contracts in order to sell their new brand and get people to come to their new ballpark. Well it really didn't work, and I'm not surprised that it didn't. When things started to go poorly, management completely overreacted and made bad trades that led to even worse results. I really wish I could focus more on the players, but so few of the guys remain that I'll keep it to Giancarlo Stanton himself: Stanton played 123 games, hit 37 homers, and clubbed his way to a 158 OPS+. He was an absolute freak at the plate who carries the potential for 50+ HR in a full season with strong defense in right field. As you can see above, he contributed 5.4 wins of value while playing just 76% of his team's games. Stanton, and only Stanton, was the bright spot for the Marlins in 2012.
Off Season Recap
Two more words for you: fire sale! For the third time, the Marlins have taken a roster, built it up, and completely dumped it. This time, however, they started doing it less than 4 months after they put it all together. At the trade deadline, they flipped Anibal Sanchez and Omar Infante to Detroit for SP Jacob Turner. They also flipped Matt Dominguez to Houston. Then they decided to flip Hanley Ramirez to the Dodgers. This set the stage for the big dump in the off season: the Marlins flipped SP Josh Johnson, SP Mark Buehrle, SS Jose Reyes, and UTIL Emilo Bonifacio to Toronto for a slew of cheap contracts and prospects. The move didn't just gut the roster, but it was a complete and utter slap in the face to everyone who has ever bothered to support the Marlins as an organization. Today, owner Jeffry Loria wrote a letter to the public in which he seemed to deflect all blame from himself and the organization. All this trade was about was dumping bad contracts that the team never planned to actually live up to.
Additions (dating back to mid-season):
1B Casey Kotchman
UTIL Chone Figgins
RP Jon Rauch
RP Kevin Slowey
RP Michael Wuertz
UTIL Placido Polanco
C Jeff Mathis
SP Nathan Eovaldi
And prospects:
Jacob Turner
Adeiny Hechavarria
Jake Marisnick
Henderson Alvarez
Justin Nicolino
Anthony DeSclafani
Subtractions:
2B Omar Infante
SP Anibal Sanchez
SP Mark Beuhrle
SP Josh Johnson
SS Jose Reyes
SS/3B Hanley Ramirez
UTIL Emilio Bonifacio
C John Buck
2013 Outlook
Seriously, just screw the Marlins. Yes they got quite a bit of value back in their trade, but you should be expected to bring back a big haul when you dump almost your entire starting roster of players. Quite honestly, the 2013 Marlins remind me of the Cleveland Indians from the movie "Major League." They are going to be a band of misfits and veterans that are not expected to do anything. However, unlike the movie, I don't think anyone should expect some miraculous great season from the Marlins. The team is going to be bad because they simply do not have any kind of Major League talent outside of Giancarlo Stanton. Therefore the team's 2013 campaign will be focused on one thing:
1. Development of young talent- Turner, Stanton, Hechavarria, Morrison, Eovaldi, and Solano are going to get a LOT of playing time in the majors this year. Since a lot of the talent the Marlins acquired in the off season is still in the low minors, these guys are going to have to develop quickly if the Marlins want to win anything. Quick development could lead to a pesky squad that puts together some wins against good teams late in the season, but things are going to be rough at the start for the Marlins.
Potential Breakout Player
Adeiny Hechavarria, SS
I'll preface this by saying this: I don't think Hechavarria is going to break out, but it's not like my options with the Marlins were deep in the "breakout" category. Reading scouting reports and watching some film, Hechavarria is a light-bat with a gold glove. He has good range and a strong arm, which should make him a quality defensive shortstop at the MLB level. If he can manage to hold a spot every day, then he can probably create a win of value between his glove and his legs. However, it may be tough for him to get the necessary playing time.
Potential Bust Player
Giancarlo Stanton isn't going to bust, and they don't have anyone else on the big league roster that qualifies as a bust candidate. Some might think Giancarlo will have a down year simply because it's known that he doesn't want to play in Miami any more, but I don't buy into this. Giancarlo has never come across as anything less than a true professional, and I expect him to have a big season.
2013 Starting Eight and Starting Rotation
C- Rob Brantley
1B- Logan Morrison
2B- Donovan Solano
SS- Adeiny Hechavarria
3B- Placido Polanco
LF- Juan Pierra
CF- Justin Ruggiano
RF- Giancarlo Stanton
SP- Ricky Nolasco
SP- Henderson Alvarez
SP- Wade LeBlanc
SP- Nathan Eovaldi
SP- Jacob Turner
Expected Finishes
Record: 60-102
Finish: 5th Place NL East
MVP: Giancarlo Stanton, 7.1 WAR
Lasting Thought
The NL East went and got itself really good, but the Marlins are not involved in that. They have a bad roster, very little committed money, and now have to wait for their top prospects to come up through from the low minors. The best thing that can possibly happen for this franchise is for Selig's replacement to have something against Jeffry Loria and kick him out the door. Until that happens, we'll probably see a decent Marlins team once every 8 years.
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