2012 Record: 72-90
Pythag Record: 74-88
Games Out of First: 16.0
Top Players by WAR
1. Alex Gordon, 6.2
2. Alcides Escobar, 3.2
3. Billy Butler, 2.9
3. Mike Moustakas, 2.9
5. Salvador Perez, 2.8
2012 Recap
Last season was supposed to be the year that the Royals got over the hump. They were the trendy pick by many fans to break out and actually challenge the Tigers for the AL Central crown. Well...the Royals didn't exactly do that. Their breakout candidates didn't break out and they basically repeated their 2011 results. One of the individuals most expected to breakout was first baseman Eric Hosmer, who had impressed in his debut season in 2011. Unfortunately Hosmer suffered a case of the BABIP blues as the result of a GB/FB ratio near 2.0. When a player doesn't have elite speed (Hosmer can run, but he's not Tony Campana, Mike Trout, or Michael Bourn on the bases) his ratio can really hurt, and that's what happened with Hosmer. Another breakout candidate who didn't exactly break out was third baseman Mike Moustakas. Outside of his defensive metrics (which suggest he was a defensive deity) he had troubles last year. Unlike Hosmer, he had BABIP issues that were the result of a lack of power. Moustakas hit plenty of fly balls last year (GB/FB ratio on the short side of one, which is good) but only had a HR/FB rate of 9.0%. This figure, which was low for a player of his power, was definitely one of the root causes of his offensive struggles. Outside of these two players, the Royals did have several good performances. Alex Gordon had a stellar year, Billy Butler was a monster with the bat at DH, and Salvador Perez showcased the incredible defense we've heard so much about. This didn't do anything to help the pitching staff though, which had its two top value pitchers come out of the bullpen (and a top arm of Luis Mendoza).
Off Season Recap
When you have a need and your job is in serious jeopardy, you need to make a bold move. The Royals did just that when they sent top prospects Wil Myers and Jake Ordorizzi to Tampa Bay for SP James Shields and P Wade Davis (whom they plan to use in the rotation). The team also went out and acquired Ervin Santana while re-signing Jeremy Guthrie. While not the top collection of arms in the world, this staff is a gigantic improvement over what the Royals had before and I'm starting to buy into Dayton Moore's thinking just a little bit more. While I truly believe Wil Myers will be a stud in this league, the Royals couldn't pass up the opportunity to acquire a top starter.
Additions (going back to last year):
SP James Shields
SP Wade Davis
SP Ervin Santana
SP Jeremy Guthrie
C George Kottaras
Subtractions:
OF Wil Myers
SP Jake Ordorizzi
2013 Outlook
Last year I was not sold on the Royals at all. They had improved offensively, but the pitching staff was still incredibly weak. This time around, things are a bit different. They head into 2013 with a roster full of talent. While not particularly deep (this will be their undoing in the long run) the Royals have loaded up with breakout/bounceback candidates. Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Salvador Perez, Ervin Santana, and Wade Davis all look to be set for bounceback/breakout campaigns in 2013. If the team can get what they expect out of Alex Gordon, Billy Butler, and James Shields then the Royals will have solidly set themselves ahead of the rest of the middle-tier AL Central teams. Their rotation is much better, and they have a solid back end of the bullpen set up with breakout candidate Greg Holland. Here are the keys to the Royals' 2013 season:
1. Offensive Breakout- the Royals are seriously set to become a great offensive team. If they can get bounebacks/breakouts from Salvador Perez, Eric Hosmer, and Mike Moustakas they have a chance to compete for an AL Wild Card spot. If only two break out, they should be poised for a winning season and an outside shot at a WC spot, and if one breaks out they still have a chance to win more than 81 games. Having top prospects and young players only means something if those guys eventually produce, and the Royals need that to happen this season.
2. Starting Rotation Bounceback- Right now the running slogan for the Royals' rotation would be "James Shields and the #4 starters". If the Royals want to be taken seriously, then the trio of Guthrie/Santana/Davis need to produce. The team has a very serious lack of rotation depth, so the health of these guys is also going to be highly important.
Potential Breakout Player
Salvador Perez, C
Very hard for me to pick just one guy for this, but I'm going with my favorite of the group. Salvador Perez is one of those players you just need to see in person. As I wrote in his breakout candidate article, he's got a serious cannon for an arm and is amazing at picking off base runners and shutting down a running game. If he can use his solid contact ability to produce enough line drives, he can provide a solid number of homers and doubles out of the bottom of the order (my guess is he'll hit 6th).
Potential Bust Player
Alex Gordon, LF
There is still a debate to be had over whether Gordon is a mid-.300's BABIP giant or if that number is unrealistic to expect out of his performance. Regardless of what that number is, Gordon's ISO dipped quite a bit last year, which is a red flag going forward. A .160 ISO is pretty run of the mill, but Gordon wasn't hurt by it too much last year. The concern here is over the possibility that both could happen at the same time, which would seriously hurt his value as a player. He's still a defensive stud and runs the bases adequately, so I think the chances he busts are low.
Projected Starting Nine and Pitching Rotation
C- Salvador Perez
1B- Eric Hosmer
2B- Chris Getz
SS- Alcides Escobar
3B- Mike Moustakas
LF- Alex Gordon
CF- Lorenzo Cain
RF- Jeff Francouer
SP- James Shields
SP- Jeremy Guthrie
SP- Ervin Santana
SP- Wade Davis
SP- Bruce Chen (BRUCE CHEN)
Expectations:
Record: 84-78
Finish: Going to stop doing this and just post results at the end
Team MVP: Alex Gordon, 5.9 WAR
Lasting Thought
If the Royals can avoid the injury bug, they can do something pretty similar to what the 2011 Brewers did. However, if they have to start dipping into the high minors or their bench for talent, their performance will dip considerably. For this reason, I'm predicting a modest 84 wins for the club, which should be enough to help Dayton Moore keep his job going into the strong 2014 SP free agent class. However, the ultimate key to this year is going to be the club re-signing James Shields. If they don't do that, then they seriously screwed the pooch on this off season's trade and things will look bleak.
2012 Record: 73-89
Pythag Record: 74-88
Games Out of First: 22.0
Top Performers by WAR:
1. Edwin Encarnacion, 4.6 (no, you read that right)
2. Brett Lawrie, 4.1
3. Jose Bautista, 3.2
4. Yunel Escobar, 2.5
5. Brandon Morrow, 2.4
2012 Recap
In case you haven't noticed yet, we've developed a bit of a trend here in the bottom ten teams in the league. In an environment that is conducive to pitchers, your chances of being good are poor when you can't pitch. The Blue Jays gave up a staggering 1.27 HR/9 last year as a pitching staff and have one returning starter with an ERA under 4.50. This was pretty unfortunate, as the team was pretty average when it came to fielding and hitting the baseball. The season certainly would have been better had the team had a healthy Jose Bautista, too (he played only 92 games last year). Two key drastic changes in performance defined the Blue Jays as a team: the breakout of Edwin Encarnacion and the bust job that Ricky Romero pulled. Both took career trends and slapped them in the face, as Encarnacion became one of the game's best hitters and Romero struggled with health and performance issues all season.
2013 Off Season
For a couple of years now, people have been praising the moves of GM Alex Anthopolous. However, people were wondering when he would finally make a big move. Well this winter Anthopolous made two HUGE moves. In a trade with Miami, he sent out a group of prospects including Jake Marisnick and Adeiny Hechavarria for a package of players that included SP Josh Johnson, SP Mark Buehrle, SS Jose Reyes, C John Buck, and UTIL Emilio Bonifacio. Then in a separate trade with the Mets, the club sent prospects Travis d'Arnaud and Noah Syndergaard in exchange for breakout ace R.A. Dickey. The team also brought in FA outfielder Melky Cabrera and figure to have a healthy Ricky Romero. Talk about improvements.
Additions:
SP Josh Johnson
SS Jose Reyes
SP Mark Buehrle
UTIL Emilio Bonifacio
SP R.A. Dickey
OF Melky Cabrera
Subtractions:
SP Carlos Villanueva
SS Yunel Escobar (people forget that while he was a pain last year, he was also good)
And prospects:
Travis d'Arnaud
Noah Syndergaard
Adeiny Hechavarria
Jake Marisnick
2013 Outlook
Everyone is bugging out about how much the Jays improved as a team, but let's settle down for just a second. Firstly, they didn't just add value onto value. They did lose Yunel Escobar and Carlos Villanueva, who combined for close to three wins in value. Plus, let's not act like Dickey, Johnson, and Buehrle are just going to waltz into a tougher ballpark and tougher division offensively and be unaffected. While I do think Dickey will be fine since he is such a unique pitcher, I don't have much faith in Josh Johnson or Mark Buehrle. With Johnson, his shoulder issues have led to a significant loss in velocity that he very likely will never gain back. With Buehrle, he has pedestrian stuff and could definitely get knocked around. However, I do think the AL East factor is a bit oversold. The Yankees lost a ton of their power and the Red Sox and Rays both lost key offensive players dating back to mid-season (Adrian Gonzalez and B.J. Upton). There are issues with rebounding/bust candidates with the Jays as well (need Encarnacion and Bautista to be healthy and not take steps back). This all being said, this team has some pretty ridiculous upside. They have the potential to be above average or better at first base (Encarnacion), shortstop (Reyes), left field (Cabrera), third base (Lawrie), right field (Bautista), and in the rotation (Dickey, Johnson, and Romero). Let's get to the keys:
1. Ricky Romero- I'm not even going to get into the transition process for the three pitchers coming in to the organization. If this team is going to win the AL East, Romero needs to be healthy and get his control issues...um...err...under control. I think a lot of his issues were injury related and I expect him to bounce back. There isn't any kind of pressure for him to be anything better than a #5 starter at this point, so I think he's poised to come back.
2. Live up to the hype- I know some people don't buy much into sports psychology, but feeling constant pressure as an athlete is difficult and wears you down. The team is going to by hyped as the AL East favorite all season, and if they don't live up to it then heads are going to roll. With as great as Anthopolous has been as a GM, ownership will take serious issue with him if this team doesn't win ballgames.
Potential Breakout Player
Brett Lawrie, 3B
I really thought last year would be Lawrie's breakout campaign, but the injury bug got in the way. His high-intensity style of play really hurt him (more puns) when he fell into a camera well at Yankee Stadium and suffered an ankle injury. This year, however, should be different for Lawrie. He's a contact machine with good power and a strong glove. I imagine the best place in the order for him is second in front of Bautista/Encarnacion and behind Reyes. He has the ability to put up some crazy traditional and non-traditional numbers.
Potential Bust Player
Josh Johnson, SP
This year he doesn't have a massive ballpark to hide the issues with his arm. I really do think that Johnson's career is slowly coming to a close and that this year will be the proverbial dagger. If he doesn't get hurt (unlikely) then I think the loss in velocity he suffered in 2012 will be a serious issue in performance. As we've seen, the Rogers Center likes home runs and so does the rest of the AL East. The chances he'll completely bust are small, but I'm definitely no Johnson fan going into this season.
Projected Starting Nine and Starting Rotation
C- J.P. Arencibia
1B- Edwin Encarnacion
2B- Maicer Izturis/Emilio Bonifacio
SS- Jose Reyes
3B- Brett Lawrie
LF- Melky Cabrera
CF- Colby Rasmus
RF- Jose Bautista
DH- Adam Lind
SP- R.A. Dickey
SP- Josh Johnson
SP- Brandon Morrow
SP- Mark Buehrle
SP- Ricky Romero
Expectations
Record: 90-72
Team MVP: Jose Bautista, 6.3 WAR (seriously, this guy is still insanely good)
Lasting Thought
It's do or die time for the Jays. They've been talked about as a breakout candidate each of the past few seasons and haven't seen the results. This year the rest of the division appears to be weak, and the Jays should finally have the opportunity to strike. The potentially is there for a 100-win roster (if literally everything goes right), but the potential is also there for a .500 ballclub. There are a lot of questions for the Jays going into this year, and the hope is that positive answers are given to all of them.
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