2012 Record: 74-88
Pythag Record: 75-87
Games Out of First: 24.0
Top Performers by WAR
1. David Wright, 6.7
2. R.A. Dickey, 4.6
3. Jon Niese, 2.4
4. Ruben Tejada, 1.9
5. Scott Hairston, 1.5
5. Dillon Gee, 1.5
2012 Recap
Last year was a big year for the Mets. After the Wilpons dealt with being attached to the Madoff Ponzi scheme, the organization needed to switch gears and come up with a new plan. On the field, the transition was quite nice. David Wright returned to form, R.A. Dickey broke out and won a Cy Young award, and young players like Jon Niese, Ruben Tejada, Dillon Gee, and Ike Davis (well, 2nd half Ike Davis) contributed positive value to the team. The club also made a mid-season callup to the minors to bring in Matt Harvey, who dazzled with his electric breaking pitches in 60 late-season innings of work. Overall, the product was simply completely outmatched by the clubs that Washington, Atlanta, and Philly have. As far as comparison to the league goes, the Mets ranked 22nd in wRC+, 26th in UZR, 19th in BsR, and 15th in xFIP. Decent pitching and base running helped counteract a weak offense and poor defense (the team's defense outcome is actually surprising given how great Wright was in the field last year).
Off Season Recap
The way I see it, the team had two clear and distinct motives: either sign or trade the duo of David Wright and R.A. Dickey. In the case of the former, the club agreed to a shiny new contract that will give Wright a guaranteed $138 million through the year 2020. In the case of the latter, the club took advantage of Toronto pursuing a chance to win. The club flipped R.A. Dickey to the Jays for prospects Travis d'Arnaud and Noah Syndergaard (the club also parted ways with catcher Josh Thole, who is Dickey's personal catcher). Outside of this, the Mets wound up not making any other key moves even though they were tied to several. They were reportedly very deep into talks to trade for Justin Upton before he was shipped to Atlanta. They also were reportedly in deep with Michael Bourn until a pick protection issue led them to not offer a deal as strong as the one the Indians offered. Other than this, Scott Hairston found his way to Chicago, even though the Mets go into the 2013 season with some serious concerns in the outfield.
Additions:
C- Travis d'Arnaud
P- Noah Syndergaard
SP- Shaun Marcum
Subtractions:
SP- R.A. Dickey
C- Josh Thole
UTIL- Scott Hairston
2013 Outlook
Mets fans should simply not be concerned with where the Mets' win/loss record ends. This year is a key year in the rebuilding effort of the franchise. Now that Dickey and Wright have been dealt with, the club will look to the development of players such as Ike Davis, Ruben Tejada, Wilmer Flores, Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Jon Niese, Dillon Gee, and their collection of prospects. Due to the lack of rush to bring them up, Wheeler and d'Arnaud will probably stay in the high minors until mid-season so the club can avoid losing a year of control on the players. Outside of development, here are some key things for Mets fans to look out for:
1. David Wright's Health- We know how great Wright was last year, but now that he's signed to a big contract he needs to produce consistently or risk mockery. A key to this will be his health. Last year Wright was fully healthy and it really showed on the field. He was stellar defensively and was a force at the plate. I don't think he'll quite repeat his defensive numbers from last season, but if he were to do so, then he'll be an MVP candidate once again.
2. Johan Santana- Wait, why is he a key? He's a key because this is the last year of his lucrative deal. Santana is guaranteed 31 million dollars between his 2013 salary and the buyout on his 2014 team option. If he can come back, be healthy, and perform well up to the all star break there is a chance that the Mets will be able to flip him and some of his contract elsewhere. If he's not healthy, the club has to pony up that 31 million dollars and deal with getting zero value out of his contract. Alderson and company are great at what they do, so I am intrigued by whether or not Santana will be in position to be dealt at the trade deadline.
Potential Breakout Player
Ike Davis, 1B
I like Ike! Seriously, after getting over valley fever early in the season and getting passed the ankle injury that ended his 2011, Davis started to tear it up in the 2nd half of last season. He clubbed his way to an OPS of .888 and 21 home runs after the break. If he can stay healthy, Ike should be able to take advantage of a smaller Citi Field and work on breaking out into an All-Star mold. I really like him going forward.
Potential Bust Player
David Wright, 3B
By default, I am required to talk about Wright here. There are no other options to bust, and Wright did kinda find the fountain of youth last year. I don't think his ISO or BABIP numbers will drop much (if at all). Where I think Wright may bust is his defense. For three years, he produced -10 run values by UZR like clockwork. Suddenly the value jumped to 15.0 in 2012. This 25 run swing in value is worth 2.5 wins of Wright's fWAR value. That would take his 2012 season from 7.8 fWAR to 5.3 fWAR, which is a pretty significant drop. I don't think this is going to happen though, so it's all good in the hood with Wright.
Projected Starting Eight and Starting Rotation
C- John Buck
1B- Ike Davis
2B- Daniel Murphy
SS- Ruben Tejada
3B- David Wright
LF- L (Lucas Duda)
CF-O (Kirk Nieuwenhuis)
RF- L (Marlon Byrd)
SP- Johan Santana
SP- Jon Niese
SP- Matt Harvey
SP- Shaun Marcum
SP- Dillon Gee
Expectations
Record: 77-85
Team MVP: David Wright, 6.1 WAR
Lasting Thought
I like the direction the Mets are going in. They have a young collection of talent that should be able to give Washington and Atlanta some fun races in a few years. In any other division, the Mets would be looking to take over in a couple years (but that's just not going to happen with the way Washington and Atlanta have things cooking right now). I feel like the organization needs to make one more big move to really set the rebuilding effort in the right direction, and it wouldn't shock me if that came after the 2013 season.
2012 Record: 75-87
Pythag Record: 77-85
Games Out of First: 19.0
Top Performers by WAR
1. Felix Hernandez, 6.1
2. John Jaso, 3.3
3. Brendan Ryan, 3.3
4. Kyle Seager, 2.6
5. Dustin Ackley, 2.5
2012 Recap
Don't be fooled by the presence of four position players in Seattle's top WAR performers...they were a terrible offensive ball club again in 2012. They were bottom five in wRC+, but their value as a unit was saved by their top 8 finish in the field. Their pitching results really come as a part of this defense as well. Along with pitching half their games in Safeco, Mariners pitchers enjoyed great defense in 2012 across the board. Brendan Ryan and Dustin Ackley might be the best defensive combo in the middle of any infield in the bigs, the outfield was strong defensively, and John Jaso was praised across the cybersphere for his game calling and pitch framing. Being good at the little things helped the Mariners reach 75 wins last year, but 2012 was ultimately defined by one key move for the Mariners: they shipped RF Ichiro Suzuki to the Yankees at the trade deadline. Whether people want to admit it or not, moving Ichiro away from the club was in the best interest of the team. It created roster space and eliminated the complexity that came with Ichiro being an international superstar.
Off Season Recap
This was a busy and productive off season for the Mariners. While the club didn't change much in terms of personnel, they did make some key moves (for better or for worse). The front liner here is the massive extension that the club gave Felix Hernandez. While the dollars in this are huge (and bring his current contract to 7 years /$175 million) the most intriguing thing is a fantastic last-year option. If Felix spends 130 consecutive days on the DL due to any kind of right elbow surgery, the club can exercise a team option for...wait for it...1 million dollars. Felix will be 34 when this option is possible to exercise, and while I hope he never has to have the surgery to repair his elbow it would be fascinating to see this thing used.
Additions:
DH- Kendrys Morales
LF- Michael Morse
OF Jason Bay
OF Raul Ibanez
SP Joe Saunders
Subtractions (dating back to last year)
UTIL Chone Figgins (released, but paid 8 million dollars)
RF Ichiro Suzuki
C John Jaso
2013 Outlook
The Mariners are one of those rare teams that looks like it has some upside but not enough to make the playoffs. Felix is almost a lock to have a great season as the team's #1 starter, but the rotation behind him is a complete mess. Offensively, the club desperately needs good seasons from Montero, Smoak, Ackley, Morse, and Morales. This team is loaded with offensive potential, but it really needs its young players to start to break out. At the end of last year, Smoak showed some potential and is probably the lead candidate of this group to finally get over the hump. While the team picked up some free wins in getting Houston in the division, I think the rest of the division is just too good right now. I think Seattle will be just a tiny step behind Oakland and Texas and a good bit behind Los Angeles in 2013. They have some interesting pieces, but it doesn't look like they have enough to finally bust out. Here are some keys:
1. What to do about Jesus Montero?- With Mike Zunino breathing down his neck coming after the catcher's spot long-term and the duo of Smoak/Morales manning first base and DH, Montero needs to prove that he was worth giving up Michael Pineda. I don't want to call it a do-or-die season since Montero is the ripe old age of 23, but the season really does feel like one where Montero needs to start producing or lose his job. If Smoak breaks out and Morales has a good season (forcing the M's to want to bring him back) then Montero quickly appears to be out of a starting job. One of Montero/Smoak/Morales is going to be the odd man out at the end of the season when Zunino comes up to play, and Montero certainly will be considered as that guy.
2. What to do about Justin Smoak?- Literally the same scenario as above. Either break out and have a good season or lose your job. The Mariners can't afford to wait forever (at least not with Zunino looking like he's going to be ready by the end of this season).
3. Someone in the rotation please stand up- Walker/Hultzen/Paxton is sitting in the minors developing, but the club needs someone else to step up and have a big year. While the candidates aren't strong, one of Saunders/Iwakuma/Beaven/Ramirez needs to come up with a big year if the Mariners want a serious shot at a WC run.
Potential Breakout Player
Justin Smoak, 1B
Plenty of good candidates here, but Smoak has to be the top guy. September numbers always have to be taken with a massive boulder of salt, but Smoak absolutely tore it up the last month of last season. He's always been able to draw walks and avoid striking out at unreasonable rates, and his BIP splits aren't even that bad. He just needs to start turning more of his empty fly balls into home runs. If he can take advantage of having Houston in the division and having shorter fences at Safeco, then this should happen for him and he can turn into an offensive weapon.
Potential Bust Player
The Mariners don't have anyone that was good enough last year to really be considered a potential bust.
Projected Starting Nine and Starting Rotation
C- Jesus Montero
1B- Justin Smoak
2B- Dustin Ackley
SS- Brendan Ryan
3B- Kyle Seager
LF- Michael Morse
CF- Franklin Gutierrez
RF- Michael Saunders
DH- Kednrys Morales
SP- Felix Hernandez
SP- Joe Saunders
SP- Blake Beaven
SP- Hisashi Iwakuma
SP- Erasmo Ramirez
Expectations
Record: 83-79
Team MVP: Felix Hernandez, 6.4 WAR
Lasting Thought
The AL Wild Card race is going to be wide open this year. Between the AL East, AL West, and two wild card spots, there could be upwards of eleven teams (Boston, New York, Los Angeles, Baltimore, Tampa, Kansas City, Seattle, Cleveland, Chicago, Texas, and Oakland) that have a legitimate shot at the post season. If I was forced to rank these clubs in terms of their shot at post season play, I would probably rank Seattle 6th behind NY, LA, Tampa, Texas, and Oakland. As long as the Mariners continue to develop young talent, they will find themselves with a shot at sneaking their way into the post season and that is what matters most.
Personally, I'd like to see Charlie Furbush in the Mariners starting rotation. I think he's earned it.
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