2012 Record: 64-98
Pythag Record: 69-93
Games out of First: 30.0
Top Performers by WAR
1. Dexter Fowler, 2.5
2. Matt Belisle, 2.1
3. Tyler Colvin, 1.9
3. Wilin Rosario, 1.9
5. Eric Young, 1.8
5. Jeff Francis, 1.8
I actually want to take a minute here to talk about these WAR results. If you are a fangraphs regular, you probably notice that Carlos Gonzalez, Dexter Fowler, and Tyler Colvin were all close to 3 win players by fangraphs. If you look at their rWAR numbers, they weren't nearly as good. This is one of the reasons I try to only mention WAR in these rather than discuss it.
2012 Recap
Last season has to be viewed as a colossal failure for the Rockies. The team recently (as in the past few years) extend Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki and looked to build around them as players. While the 2011 finish of 73-89 wasn't good, the team figured to be on a bit of an upswing headed into 2012. Instead, the opposite happened. Troy Tulowitzki got hurt yet again, and Carlos Gonzalez had his worst season as a professional baseball player. When you are a team that is built as a group of young guys surrounding two core pieces and that core is broken/absent, things are going to end up being miserable. The team finished 20th in wRC+ and were absolute butchers in the field, posting a -56.2 team UZR and being -7.3 as a team in dWAR. This absolutely killed an experimental "piggy back" rotation of starters. Overall, the team finished bottom 10 in offense, defense, and pitching. Any time this happens, results will be disastrous. Throw in a trade of Marco Scutaro to the Giants and a lack of any breakout performances in a rotation that badly needed them and you get the 3rd worst team in baseball.
Off Season Recap
If I were a Rockies fan, I would be rather frustrated with my front office. To this point the rebuilding plan has come off as "let's ride it out and see what happens." Rather than being active and aggressive, Dan O'Dowd and his staff have focused their efforts on trying to put pieces around Tulowitzki and Gonzalez. While trading away Ubaldo Jimenez has turned out to be a fabulous move, the team hasn't done much to put talent around their core. They strapped themselves financially with the two large contracts they gave out and haven't done much in the way of drafting and development recently. The team also didn't do anything to add talent to the organization this winter. No trades, no free agency activity...nothing.
Additions:
Wilton Lopez
Chris Volstad
Manny Corpas
Reid Brignac
Subtractions (including mid-season trades):
Alex White
Marco Scutaro
Guillermo Moscoso
Jason Giambi
Jonathan Sanchez
2013 Outlook
If you asked a Magic 8 ball about the future of the Rockies as an organization, it would probably turn up "LOL" or something along those lines. They don't have much MLB talent, they are consistently being ranked as a bottom 10 farm system, and they only have three names on Baseball America's top 100 prospects list that was leaked this weekend (highest being ranked 52). Because of this, the majority of the pressure falls on their two star players. Here are their 2013 focuses:
1. Health of Tulo and CarGo- If the Rockies want to reach even the 70 win plateau, they NEED Tulowitzki and Gonzalez to stay healthy. They are already going to have problems drawing fans, but if those two aren't on the field, their top attraction becomes Dexter Fowler. Do I expect them to be healthy? Maybe, but probably not as effective. Sports hernias are no joke, and the injury will definitely impact Tulo's range at short and potentially his pop at the plate. As far as Gonzalez goes, I just don't expect a ton out of him any more. He can't stay healthy, his power has declined each of the past 3 seasons, and he's become a serious liability in the field.
2. 2013 Draft (not just the #3 Pick)- Unlike the Cubs and Astros, the Rockies don't get to turn to a farm system ranked in the top 15 (or 10, depending on what lists you use). They need to have a really good draft and need to do a better job of developing their players. Unless they want to become a big money team they are going to need a massive influx of talent. Now, with the #3 overall pick, this is likely to happen if they do things properly. They will have plenty of money to spend in the draft and need to do so wisely.
3. Dan O'Dowd's Job- If you were to ask me who sat atop my list of "Executives Who Are on the Hot Seat" , O'Dowd would be the answer. He's had 14 seasons to work with the Rockies, and the results just haven't been good. They have never won the division, have only finished 2nd twice, have only made the playoffs twice, and have finished under .500 10 times during that tenure. The only thing saving him is the trip to the 2007 World Series after the improbable run to end the season (a team that really should never have been in the playoffs). Since things aren't trending upwards, this should be O'Dowd's final season in Colorado (though it might not be).
Potential Breakout Player
Wilin Rosario, C
No, last year wasn't a breakout campaign. Rosario comes with one definite tool: power. He's got some pop in his bat that plays well at Coors (just like all other power). His walk rate isn't great, but his strikeout rate isn't terrible either, which makes me believe that he can continue showing this power in his offensive game. Defensively, he's what you would call a "work in progress." The Rockies voiced their frustration last year with how Rosario performed defensively, and the soon-to-be 24 year old (turns 24 on Sunday) reportedly spent the entire off season working on his defense. If his defense can truly improve, I think he's got the bat to be a 3+ WAR catcher. He makes enough contact for his power to show through in his game, and working as a better defender will go a really long way with that pitching staff.
Potential Bust Player
Carlos Gonzalez, OF
Do me a favor and don't be surprised if CarGo completely tanks this year. His career trends look absolutely terrible. Since 2009, he's managed to get significantly worse in GB/FB ratio every year, going from 0.97 to 1.66. A strong, Coors-boosted HR/FB rate is only significant if the player is hitting fly balls, and CarGo just doesn't do that anymore. His defensive skills aren't getting any better either. Through UZR, he's shown consistent decline in the field, and his dWAR numbers don't necessarily disagree. While he's still a good base runner, he isn't getting any faster with age. I might be too negative here, but I just haven't seen enough watching him or reading through his numbers that give me the impression that he's going to bounce back and be an elite player.
2013 Starting Eight and Relevant Pitchers
C- Wilin Rosario
1B- Todd Helton
2B- Josh Rutledge
SS- Troy Tulowitzki
3B- Chris Nelson
LF- Carlos Gonzalez
CF- Dexter Fowler
RF- Tyler Colvin
The Rockies don't have a "starting rotation" in the normal sense. They use what they call a "piggy back" system where starters and long relievers are used in the exact same mold. Players that will be involved in this are:
Drew Pomeranz
Jeff Francis
Christian Friedrich
Jhoulys Chacin
Matt Belisle
Rex Brothers
Adam Ottavino
Julian Nocasio
Expected Finishes
Record: 63-99
Finish: 5th Place (NL West)
Most Valuable Player: Troy Tulowitzki, 6.2 WAR
Lasting Thought
It all comes down to Dan O'Dowd with this organization. If he can pull some strings and right the ship in the very near future, he will probably save his job. If he doesn't, then he simply doesn't deserve to keep it as there are too many individuals who deserve a shot at the job. If Tulo and CarGo stay healthy and both play well, this team has a shot at 70 wins. However, the Giants are still good, the Dodgers have improved a ton, the Padres are on the upswing, and the Diamondbacks are still better despite their best efforts not to be. I know I recently said I wanted to put a positive slant on all of these writings, but it's just too hard to do so with Colorado. They are a broken organization with lots of problems.
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