2012 Record: 66-96
Pythag Record: 68-94
Games Out of First: 22.0
Top Performers by WAR:
1. Denard Span, 4.8
2. Joe Mauer, 4.1
3. Jamey Carroll, 3.2
4. Josh Willingham, 2.9
5. Scott Diamond, 2.6
2012 Recap
Last year certainly wasn't the improvement that a lot of people expected from the Twins. Certainly, the loss of Scott Baker before the season really put a damper on the team's chances to win games but this wasn't supposed to be a 96-loss team. One of the things that hurt most was a complete lack of offense at second base and shortstop. The position had a revolving door, and that door never stopped revolving. Another major problem the Twins had was depth. If a starter got hurt or was struggling, the team didn't have options to come up and succeed from the minors. Pretty much all of their offensive and pitching replacements were terrible, which made it really easy for the team to rack up losses with Baker, Blackburn, and Liriano all either being or bad. They didn't have a good bat to pinch-hit late in games, so they were bad offensively in high-leverage situations. When it comes down to it, this just wasn't a team that was going to win much unless the original starters on offense and in the pitching staff were healthy and performing well. The Twins ranked last in starter WAR (yes, even behind Colorado) and were close to last in starter ERA despite playing rather great team defense.
Off Season Reload
Terry Ryan is a really experienced and highly intelligent GM. He knows how to listen to his people and they appear to know how to listen to him. The message this off season was clear: we need pitchers, and we need pitchers BADLY. The change didn't come just at the MLB level (even though the team traded away Liriano mid-season and let Scott Baker walk in free agency to the Cubs). The club made a clear and distinct effort to move pieces to bring in pitching talent. The club moved center fielders Denard Span and Ben Revere to the Nationals and Phillies respectively and were able to bring back a hoard of young arms. Vance Worley, Trevor May, and Alex Meyer will all acquired. Meanwhile, the club added Mike Pelfrey and Kevin Correia for rotation depth and even gave Rich Harden a minor league contract. Message sent and message received, gentlemen.
Additions:
P Alex Meyer
P Trevor May
P Vance Worley
P Rich Harden
P Mike Pelfrey
P Kevin Correia
P Kyle Gibson*
*= Returning from Tommy John Surgery
Subtractions (going back to last year):
CF Ben Revere
CF Denard Span
P Francisco Liriano
P Scott Baker
2013 Outlook
The outlook for this team certainly isn't good, but it's also not terrible. A lot of people think that Cleveland, Kansas City, and Chicago are all well above Minnesota in that middle tier of mediocrity in the AL Central, but I really don't think the difference is that great. While Span and Revere provided a lot of value last year, most of that was via defense and on the bases. Quite frankly, the club wasn't helped much by either given the fact that the pitchers gave up 1.24 HR per nine innings and struck out so few batters that any defensive efforts were completely overshadowed by the sheer volume of hard contact that came at them. With this in mind, let's look at the 2013 focuses:
1. Get Morneau Healthy and Trade Him: I know he won an MVP, I know he's really fun to see in commercials, but the Twins badly need to get some organizational value out of Justin Morneau. He turns 32 in May and has managed to rack up a pretty significant injury history. The ideal thing for the Twins is that he fully recovers from the nagging issues he's had and produces a monster first 4 months of the season. Then the club can flip his left-handed power bat (read: EXTREMELY rare at the deadline and HIGHLY valued) for some more of that quality young pitching.
2. Joe Mauer- Last year proved that he's back. However, the golden boy of Minnesota baseball turns 30 on April 19th. This means the window for the team to build around him to compete is quickly closing. He doesn't have the ability to catch as many games as he used to, so his value isn't as great as it used to be and he's no longer a superstar, but he is still an All-Star caliber player who is the key focus of the team. If he's healthy, his high intelligence will help build what will soon be a very, very young pitching staff.
Potential Breakout Player
Kyle Gibson, SP
He may not make the rotation out of camp, but that shouldn't be considered a disappointment for a starter coming back from TJS. Gibson provides something that the Twins desperately need as an organization: strikeouts. Will his stuff be as great as before surgery? Don't know, because I haven't seen him yet this spring. However, the potential certainly is there, and he's rated Baseball America's #68 prospect for a reason. He's a big, tall presence on the mound that comes at you with a strong fastball and sharp breaking pitches. Making the Twins rotation in-season certainly won't be hard, so look for Gibson to get a shot and potentially make the most of it (possibly an AL Rookie of the Year candidate).
Potential Bust Player
Josh Willingham, LF/DH
Let's face a very important fact here: Willingham doesn't have a 4.5 win bat. His HR/FB rate soared in 2012 despite moving into Target Field, and his ISO jumped 32 points as a result. That just shouldn't happen at age 33. This year I think Willingham is going to get a significant amount of time at DH with Morneau at first and Mauer behind the plate. If 70% of his games can come at DH, then Willingham still has some value. However, he's probably going to get 70% of his playing time in left field. This means he has to play defense, which he is not good at.
2013 Starting Eight and Starting Rotation
Have to make a lot of guesses here, because the Twins have about as many open competitions in camp as anyone.
C: Joe Mauer
1B: Justin Morneau
2B: Your guess is as good as mine
SS: Jamey Carroll
3B: Trevor Plouffe
LF: Josh Willingham
CF: Aaron Hicks (if he wins the job, which he might not)
RF: Ryan Doumit/Platoon
DH: Platoon of Mauer/Morneau/Willingham/Doumit
SP: Vance Worley
SP: Scott Diamond*
SP: Kyle Gibson#
SP: Kevin Correia#
SP: Mike Pelfrey#
SP: Nick Blackburn#
*= Returning from injury
#= Must win job
Oh dear goodness. Before I did this write up I didn't think the revolving door in the Twins' rotation would be this bad. Looking at what they have, the only two that are guaranteed spots are Vance Worley and Scott Diamond. After that, it's anyone's best guess. If I had to guess, I would say that Gibson and Correia win the 3 and 4 jobs and the 5 spot becomes a platoon of about six guys.
Expected Finishes
Record: 69-92
Finish: 5th Place (AL Central)
Most Valuable Player: Joe Mauer, 4.8 WAR
Lasting Thought:
The Twins really aren't that far from being able to compete in the AL Central. The only team that has established any kind of dominant presence is Detroit, but even those old farts won't be good forever. The Twins quietly had a top 3-5 off season this year without adding any significant talent to the MLB roster. They've parted ways with the right individuals and have added strong arms to the mix. It's going to be frustrating for another year, but the young arms and free agent pitchers that will be be on the market next off season provide some room for a quick turnaround.
2012 Record: 68-94
Pythag Record: 64-98
Games Out of First: 20.0
Top Performers by WAR:
1. Jason Kipnis, 3.7
1. Carlos Santana, 3.7
3. Shin-Soo Choo, 3.1
4. Asdrubal Cabrera, 3.0
5. Michael Brantley, 2.9
2012 Recap
There is a common theme within 2012 AL Central teams: the pitching, on the whole, was absolutely horrendous. The Twins and Indians combined for 2 total pitchers that reached 4 WAR, and it's this lack of talent that led both to be bottom 5 pitching staffs. For the Indians, the pitching wasn't helped by the defense at all, as the team posted a -62 rating in the field. Things weren't much better on the bases either as the club lost almost 12 runs rounding the bags. The Indians were, however, acceptable with the bats as they came up #12 overall in wRC+ (tied with five other teams). The team, as usual, also dealt with a significant number of injuries. Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner again missed significant chunks of time. Much like the Twins, a lot of the problems for Cleveland came out of the fact that they couldn't strike anyone out. They had three pitchers reach more than 90 IP with K/9 rates under 5. This horrifying number meant lots of balls in play, which the Indians did not deal with well.
Off Season Recap
It's tough to say who had the best overall off season this winter, but the Indians are definitely a candidate for the top spot. With Shin-Soo Choo's contract set to expire, the team wanted to add young talent without giving up shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera. Amazingly, the team was able to pull it off. In a 3-team trade with Cincinnati and Arizona, the Indians gave up Tony Sipp, Lars Anderson, and Shin-Soo Choo and received Trevor Bauer, Drew Stubbs, Bryan Shaw, and Matt Albers. They did what many NBA teams do and flipped an expiring contract along with a a couple of minor pieces to receive young talent in return. The team also played the free agent market, where they took advantage of Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn failing to reach they high-money goals they set going into the off season. Overall, the team added tons of value to the organization. They got better at the MLB level and added more depth.
Additions:
CF Michael Bourn
1B Nick Swisher
DH Mark Reynolds
P Trevor Bauer
RF Drew Stubbs
Subtractions:
RF Shin-Soo Choo
RP Tony Sipp
DH Travis Hafner
2013 Outlook
Not going to lie, I'm not a huge fan of the Indians as a breakout candidate. The team improved, but the amount they improved is being oversold just a little bit. While adding Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher was huge, let's not forget that Shin-Shoo Choo is a heck of a ball player who provided quite a bit of value to the Indians in 2012. While Trevor Bauer certainly has high upside as a starter, he might not quite be ready for MLB play, and he certainly didn't seem ready last year to step in and give 180 MLB innings at a quality level. This leaves the rotation as a serious issue. Even though the defense has improved by leaps and bounds (honestly, this team is starting three center fielders in the outfield) the pitching staff still will give up plenty of contact. Offensively, I think their young talent will improve quite a bit. Santana and Kipnis could easily break out and have big years, and let's not forget that Swisher and Bourn can also provide value with their bats and on the base paths. Some keys:
1. Ubaldo Jimenez- This guy has some serious demons to beat as a pitcher. His mechanics turned to poop last year and his stuff took a serious hit as a result, but let's not forget that this is a guy who was seriously great as a pitcher for a stretch of four years. If the new coaching staff can work with him and get him back anywhere close to what he was, this guy would be a HUGE boost to the team's cause.
2. Terry Francona- I'm not one for praising managers, but this guy is a gem. Players love playing for him and he has experience in something that few others do: winning. He's seen two World Series winning teams in action and is known for his ability to get the most out of young players. I think he is a great fit for Cleveland and it wouldn't surprise me if he had an impact like Joe Maddon on the Indians.
3. Carlos Santana- At some point it all has to come together for this guy. Amazing plate discipline and vision, incredible contact ability, and strong power. HR/FB rate led to a very weak ISO by his standards. If he turns it around, he will be the cog that drives the Indians offense.
Potential Breakout Player
Directly above. Santana has it all on offense, but he needs to see it all come together. Santana walks in 15% of his plate appearances, which is simply absurd. He also very rarely strikes out because he keeps his swing and miss rate at 8%. While his defense is still a major issue, his bat has the potential to be elite. I think 2013 is the year it all finally comes together and Santana comes into the 5-win (or higher) mold that some expect of him.
Potential Bust Player
Nick Swisher, 1B
I'm a little concerned about him moving out of the outfield to first base. His bat played well out in right field, but the standards are a lot higher at first base. I know it is "easier" to play first base, but the position is completely different from the outfield. Reaction has to be quicker and scooping is a huge part of being valuable. I have confidence in the fact that he will transition well, but I'm not going to sit here and say it would shock me if he wasn't even a 2 win player in 2013.
2013 Starting Nine and Starting Rotation
C- Carlos Santana
1B- Nick Swisher
2B- Jason Kipnis
SS- Asdrubal Cabrera
3B- Lonnie Chisenhall
LF- Michael Brantley
CF- Michael Bourn
RF- Drew Stubbs
DH- Mark Reynolds
SP- Justin Masterson
SP- Ubaldo Jimenez
SP- Zach McCallister
SP- Trevor Bauer#
SP- Platoon
#= Needs to win job
Expected Finishes:
Record: 81-81
Finish: Nth Plate in AL Central (you can WAIT for the results at the end)
Most Valuable Player: Carlos Santana, 5.5 WAR
Lasting Thought
Kyle Lohse is still without a home, and don't be surprised if Cleveland comes calling in a couple weeks. Their first rounder is still protected, and they need an arm for the rotation. Until they get it, it's impossible to say this team is a serious threat to make the playoffs. They simply don't have the necessary pitching to make the jump from 64 Pythag wins to the 85+ wins it takes to make the post season in the 2 WC format. However, this team is young and has been smart with its money. I think they are still a couple years from being a serious AL threat, but they are definitely on the upswing.
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