2012 Record: 76-86
Pythag Record: 75-87
Games Out of First: 18.0
Top Performers by WAR
1. Chase Headley, 6.0
2. Yasmani Grandal, 2.7
2. Cameron Maybin, 2.7
4. Chris Denorfia, 2.1
4. Will Venable, 2.1
2012 Recap
Last season was solid for the Padres given the situation they were given as a team. They had some key injuries that really held them back. In my opinion, this is a team that had the talent to be a .500 ball club but ultimately lacked the depth necessary to compete. One player that stood above all others for the Padres in 2012 was third baseman Chase Headley. Headley walked at a career high rate (12.3%), had easily his best ISO (.212), and apparently played some solid defense. As seen above, this led Headley to the level of elite status at his position. Outside of Headley, things weren't too terrible for San Diego. They were tied for 10th in wRC+ and were top 7 at running the bases. Unfortunately things didn't go well on the other side of the ball for the Padres. The team was 20th in team UZR, 16th in team ERA (yes, despite playing in PETCO), and 16th in team xFIP. When you break everything down, this is a club that (assuming the theoretical results hold true) should have been better. This is where I truly believe that a lack of depth killed them. They only had two starters go more than 100 innings and the lowest qualifying ERA on the pitching staff was 3.99 from Clayton Richard. The staff's biggest problem was control as the team was 6th worst in walks per nine innings.
Off Season Recap
Well, this segment sure will be short. The Padres were easily the quietest team this off season. According to MLBTR's transaction tracker, they only two signings they made were Jason Marquis and Freddy Garcia. This is okay though, because the Padres really didn't have a lot of major needs. They could have been better off if they had signed Edwin Jackson or a similar caliber pitcher, but I believe the squad believes in Edinson Volquez, Casey Kelley, and Clayton Richard. Offensively, they just need guys to be healthy and get back from suspension. Carlos Quentin and Yasmani Grandal were quite excellent in the short amount of time they played last season, and having them back will help a lot.
Additions:
SP Freddy Garcia
SP Andrew Cashner (considering him an addition since he basically didn't play last year)
Subtractions:
No key subtractions
2013 Outlook
I was an optimist about the Padres last year, and I'm an optimist about them this year as well. Even though Grandal being out 50 games is a humongous loss for the club, I still think they can be a strong squad. Believe it or not, their strength is going to be offense. They have a really deep and productive offensive unit led by Chase Headley and Carlos Quentin. If they can avoid having their power numbers tumble, then the Padres will score a lot of runs relative to the ballpark they play in (and when they go to Coors and Chase, watch them...because they will score). The pitching staff does need to get more consistent and productive though. They need at least 120 IP from at least four starters (my own personal estimate) to be an 85 win ballclub. If they can get at least 600 IP out of the top 5 starters in their rotation, they should be strong. Here are the keys to the season:
1. Chase Headley- He needs to repeat. Nothing is more central to what this team is trying to do than having Headley produce as an elite player. He really was the only thing preventing them from being a 90 loss team last year, and his continuation of last year's production will be the core of the team's effort.
2. Edinson Volquez- If he doesn't learn how to control his pitches, the Padres are going nowhere. They rely too much on his innings for him to be walking 5 batters per nine innings. If he can get that number back down to 4 (where it was in 2008 when he broke out as a pitcher) then he can be a force to be reckoned with. The Padres need their #2 to step his game up.
3. Carlos Quentin- This guy was acquired because he's one of those bats that just doesn't care what park he is hitting in. No park can contain his power when he squares up the baseball. In his short time last year, he showed that he can still absolutely mash. Defensively he's still a massive liability, but his power is key. Without it, Headley's production will mean a lot less.
Potential Breakout Player
Yonder Alonso, 1B
Simply put, Alonso is too strong and hits the ball too hard to put up a .120 ISO and a 6.4% HR/FB rate. Everything else about his offensive game is great. He walks a bunch, doesn't strike out, and hits all kinds of line drives. All he needs is for his fly balls to start going over the wall. When that happens, his offensive numbers will skyrocket.
Potential Bust Player
Chase Headley, 3B
No, I don't buy into his sudden 20+% HR/FB rate. I also don't buy into his UZR (by defensive runs saved, he was a -3 run defender last year). When these two things normalize, he's probably a 4 WAR player instead of a 6 or 7 WAR player.
Starting Eight and Starting Rotation
C- Nick Hundley (will be Yasmani Grandal when he returns from suspension)
1B- Yonder Alonso
2B- Logan Forsythe
SS- Everth Cabrera
3B- Chase Headley
LF- Carlos Quentin
CF- Cameron Maybin
RF- Will Venable
SP- Clayton Richard
SP- Edinson Volquez
SP- Eric Stults
SP- Jason Marquis
SP- Feddy Garcia
Expectations
Even though I think Headley will come down a bit, I love their offensive depth and the fact that they have 7 or 8 capable MLB starters.
Record: 82-80
Team MVP: Chase Headley, 4.7 WAR
Lasting Thought
If you want something good for water cooler talk, it might be cool to mention the possibility of the Padres being a darkhorse for the playoffs. They don't have the front line talent that will give them headlines in the papers, but they have more depth than a lot of other teams. They also have a really strong bullpen and shouldn't be prone to giving up games late. They remind me a lot of the way the 2012 Baltimore Orioles were structured.
2012 Record: 79-83
Pythag Record: 78-84
Games Out of First: 9.0
Top Performers by WAR
1. Andrew McCutchen, 7.0
2. A.J. Burnett, 3.4
3. Pedro Alvarez, 2.6
4. Neil Walker, 2.5
5. 3-Way Tie at 1.7
2012 Recap
The Pirates were so incredibly close. They got the two things they needed most: Andrew McCutchen breakout season and a random breakout by a pitcher (A.J. Burnett). They even went out and acquired some depth at the deadline (Wandy Rodriguez, Travis Snider, and Gaby Sanchez). In the end, the Pirates just couldn't hold up through September and ended up being under .500 for the 20th consecutive season. The team's undoing was their lack of offense, where they finished 5th-worst in wRC+. They got nothing out of SS, C, 1B, or RF. While Garrett Jones did his best to alleviate the pain, but Jose Tabata and Casey McGehee were black holes on offense. As far as pitching goes, the team was 14th in team xFIP and ERA. They were also 15th in team UZR. With what the Pirates acquired offensively at the deadline, they really should have finished better, but players eventually just tapered off.
Off Season Recap
The Pirates were another team that was surprisingly quiet this off season. All they really did was sign Russell Martin to fix their catcher woes and flip Joel Hanrahan to Boston. Really, the Pirates didn't need to do a whole lot. On offense, their problems should largely fix themselves. Martin is an immediate upgrade at catcher, Neil Walker will hope to play a full season, and Starling Marte should provide an additional presence in the outfield to balance out the offensive attack.
Additions:
C Russell Martin
Subtractions:
RP Joel Hanrahan
SP Kevin Correia
2013 Outlook
If nothing else is true, the Pirates should be a lot like the Padres. They will be a deeper squad and decided to fix their issues internally. They have a very young squad that figures to be better in just about every aspect of the game. Garrett Jones will now be at first every day, so the defense in the outfield is immediately better. Starling Marte joins Andrew McCutchen as part of a very explosive outfield, and the pitching staff figures to have a better season with a full year of Wandy Rodriguez instead of Kevin Correia. Here are some keys:
1. Pedro Alvarez- Pedro broke out in a big way last year. He mashed 30 HR and produced a near-.800 OPS. However, the key to the Pirates' 2013 season will be whether or not he can make more contact. Striking out 30+% of the time just won't cut it for Alvarez. If he can cut that number down to 25%, he has some massive offensive potential.
2. Andrew McCutchen- The BABIP was high, but part of that was McCutchen hitting a career-high LD%. Watching him play, it was obvious that he was squaring the ball up more and seeing the ball extremely well. Unfortunately for the Pirates, McCutchen really struggled mightily in the month of August. He fell off when the team needed him most, which may have been the primary reason the club struggled. When their star wasn't there, they didn't have anyone to step up and take charge. If they want to get over the hump and win more games, they need him to stay strong the entire year.
Potential Breakout Player
James McDonald, SP
I really like McDonald as a pitcher. He has strong stuff, he mixes it well, and he can last into ballgames. Unfortunately he has trouble slowing himself down when things start to get poorly, so he is prone to being lit up. Last year, McDonald really had a curious case as his ERA, FIP, and xFIP were all exactly identical (4.21). This year, I look for McDonald to cut down on his walk rate (to a more respectable 3.3) and have a strong season. The defense behind him is too good for his xFIP and ERA to be identical.
Potential Bust Player
Pedro Alvarez, 3B
Very rarely do players strike out 30+% of the time and still see success. Considering Alvarez' defense is also poor, it really wouldn't surprise me if Alvarez gets his playing time cut if he doesn't improve that strikeout rate. Long-term, the lack of contact is a big red flag, but ultimately I think Alvarez will overcome it. I just have to label him as a bust candidate because the red flag is there.
2013 Starting Eight and Starting Rotation
C- Russell Martin
1B- Garrett Jones
2B- Neil Walker
SS- Clint Barmes
3B- Pedro Alvarez
LF- Starling Marte
CF- Andrew McCutchen
RF- Travis Snider/Jose Tabata
SP- A.J. Burnett
SP- Wandy Rodriguez
SP- James McDonald
SP- Jeff Karstens
SP- Kyle McPherson
Expectations
Record: 85-77
Team MVP: Andrew McCutchen, 6.5 WAR
Lasting Thought
The Pirates are good. They've got top-tier talent, they've got depth, they *should* be adequate in all three phases of the game, and the rest of the NL Central outside of Cincinnati is pretty mediocre. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Pirates as the team chasing down Cincinnati at the end of the season, and I think Pittsburgh will be in the middle of the dog fight for the 2nd wild card. Let's not forget that the Pirates are still pretty darn young, too. This team isn't going away for a while.
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