2012 Record: 61-101
Pythagorean Record: 65-97
Games out of First: 36.0
Top Performers by WAR:
1. Darwin Barney, 4.6 (but really not this great. He's great on defense, but not 3 wins great)
2. Starlin Castro, 3.5
3. Jeff Smardzija, 3.3
4. Anthony Rizzo, 2.2
5. Alfonso Soriano, 1.8 (spot would normally be Dempster's, but he was traded mid-season)
2012 Recap
Much like the Astros, the Cubs are in the middle of a transition period. Unlike the Astros, they've got some young talent on the roster and it showed in 2012. The season was approached under a new regime, led by former Red Sox GM Theo Epstein and his pals Jed Hoyer and Jason McLeod, along with manager Dale Sveum. While the results as seen above were weak, the team showed some semblance of future potential. Young shortstop Starlin Castro improved by leaps and bounds on the defensive end while taking a step back offensively. Jeff Samardzija broke out and had a solid season, striking out 9.27 batters per nine innings and reaching an ERA+ of 103. First baseman Anthony Rizzo came up later in the season and shined like the star many think he can be. After spending the off season fixing his swing mechanics, Rizzo tore up AAA in PCL play and then came up to perform at a 119 OPS+ pace while being smooth with his glove. After Darwin Barney's glove, this is pretty much where the good news stops. After trading Ryan Dempster to Texas and losing Matt Garza to injury, the lack of depth at the MLB level really showed in Chicago. While Alfonso Soriano bounced back after switching his bat, the team struggled mightily to produce on offense and lacked any kind of depth in the rotation. While their defense was slightly better than average, they couldn't do much to help a pitching staff that featured Justin Germano and Chris Volstad in the 2nd half.
Off Season Recap
Also like Houston, the Cubs spent the better part of the last calendar year focusing on building the long-term potential of the organization rather than boosting the talent on the MLB roster. The organization added a solid group of young talent to the organization during this time. A trade of Reed Johnson and Paul Maholm to Atlanta brought back P Arodys Vizcaino, and the Cubs also added young Cuban stud Jorge Soler through a 9-year contract. Where the team was arguably most effective was in the draft, where they added Albert Almora, Pierce Johnson, and Duane Underwood. With this talent added, the organizational focus shifted to adding pitching talent. This was accomplished through the additions of Carlos Villanueva and Edwin Jackson, along with the expected return of Matt Garza and the hopefully positive addition of Scott Baker (who is expected back in early-mid May. While the Cubs were unable to unload Carlos Marmol, Alfonso Soriano, or Matt Garza via trade, the team figures to be better in 2013 while being much deeper in the organization.
Additions:
RHP Edwin Jackson
RHP Carlos Villanueva
RHP Kyuji Fujikawa
Subtractions (including mid-season trades):
CF Tony Campana
RHP Ryan Dempster
LHP Paul Maholm
C Geovany Soto
OF Reed Johnson
1B/OF Bryan LaHair
2013 Outlook
While 2013 figures to be another disappointing season on the North Side, the campaign comes with expectations. The talent on the roster is young, and there is an expectation that several individuals will improve on past accomplishments. The core group of Starlin Castro, Anthony Rizzo, and Jeff Samardzija will be expected to repeat or improve on their 2012 seasons. Meanwhile, a trio of starting pitchers is going to be expected to contribute. Matt Garza and Scott Baker will be expected to recover comfortably from surgery and new addition Edwin Jackson will have pressure on him to earn the long-term contract the Cubs gave him. Here are some things to look out for:
1) Trades: I know that Theo and company want to look to find the best trades possible, but at some point the trigger needs to be pulled. This is especially the case with Alfonso Soriano. While he did improve last year after the bat switch, he needs to be moved to help bring some kind of value to the organization. He is hated by the fan base and anything he contributes to the big league roster in 2013 is really empty value. Swallowing the money and getting even a career AAAA player in return is more valuable than keeping him on the roster at this point. Other trades to look out for are Carlos Marmol and Scott Baker.
2) #2 Overall Pick in June: the Cubs shot up organizational prospect lists in 2012. They added multiple top-100 caliber prospects and saw Javier Baez emerge into a high-end prospect. While Dillon Maples, Pierce Johnson, and Duane Underwood will be expected to improve in 2013, it's glaringly apparent that the Cubs need to add pitching talent. While you never want to be narrow-minded in the draft and always want to look for the best player available, the Cubs certainly could use a TOR-caliber pitching talent in the minor leagues.
3) Positioning for 2014: Along with the Astros and Mets, the Cubs are going to be a team looking to improve a lot heading into the 2014 season. Their young talent will have quite a bit of playing experience, their prospects are expected to be close to ready, and they will have money to burn. Theo certainly doesn't have a great reputation when it comes to free agency, but if he and the front office can add multiple MLB average-or-better players to the organization next off season, they are looking at being significantly improved in 2014.
Potential Breakout Player
Anthony Rizzo, 1B
There will be incredible expectations for Rizzo going into 2013, and many feel he won't have a problem responding to them positively. As a cancer survivor, Rizzo has been known to handle adversity well. Along with his, he significantly changed his swing (following the advice of the organization) after a pathetic 2011 showing against MLB competition made his career outlook seem bleak. He's shown the strong makeup that many have spoken of positively. As far as breaking out, I'll put it to you this way: if Rizzo simply repeats his 2012 big league rates, he's a 4 WAR player. If he were to improve on them, he could be a 5 WAR player in his first full season in the Major Leagues. Before I appear too optimistic, it's important to remember that Rizzo: 1) Didn't walk much in 2012, 2) Had a very, very high HR/FB ratio at 18.1%, 3) Didn't play a ton, which led to a small sample size to analyze his performance. Regardless, this is a guy who mashed his way close to a 25% LD rate and hit at a 28 HR clip.
Potential Bust Player
Alfonso Soriano, OF
In the realm of Cubs fans, I am a bit of a Soriano apologist. I don't think his defense is anywhere near as bad as people make it out to be (he always performs well by UZR, and was -5 last year by rDRS). At some point, though, his flaws are going to catch up to him. He'll be 37 years old this year, his strikeout rate is on the rise, and I doubt he repeats his .237 ISO. While I don't think the Cubs would have gotten anything significant in return for him this off season, I think holding onto him was a mistake. He was probably at his most "tradeable" at the end of the 2012 season, and it's looking more and more likely that the team is just going to sit on the contract and ride it out.
2013 Starting Eight and Starting Rotation
C- Wellington Castillo
1B- Anthony Rizzo
2B- Darwin Barney
SS- Starlin Castro
3B- Ian Stewart
LF- Alfonso Soriano
CF- LOL (I guess Lillibridge, Hairston, and Jackson will compete for the job)
RF- David DeJesus
SP- Jeff Samardzija
SP- Matt Garza
SP- Edwin Jackson
SP- Scott Baker*
SP- Scott Feldman
*= Travis Wood will fill in for Baker until he is ready to come back
Expected Finishes
Record: 70-92
Finish: 5th Place (NL Central)
Most Valuable Player: Anthony Rizzo, 4.2 WAR
Lasting Thought
Talent-wise the 2013 Cubs don't look terrible. However, they are going to be incredibly inexperienced and wildly uncertain due to recent injury issues. It's possible that Wellington Castillo, Anthony Rizzo, and Brett Jackson will all be opening day starters for the team, giving them 3 first-year starters (and potentially a first-year closer if Fujikawa beats Marmol out for the closer's role). The depth in the organization is better than in the past (adding Dioner Navarro and re-signing Shawn Camp surprisingly go a long way), but there is still a drastic lack of front-line talent. While I think there will be a few all-star caliber (read: caliber, not necessarily All Stars) players on the team, they will struggle to beat good and average teams. That being said, Theo and company certainly have things looking brighter on the North Side.
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